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Thread: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

  1. #1721
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    It is also an example of the Gambler's fallacy.

    The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the erroneous belief that if a particular event occurs more frequently than normal during the past it is less likely to happen in the future (or vice versa), when it has otherwise been established that the probability of such events does not depend on what has happened in the past. Such events, having the quality of historical independence, are referred to as statistically independent. The fallacy is commonly associated with gambling, where it may be believed, for example, that the next dice roll is more than usually likely to be six because there have recently been less than the usual number of sixes.
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  2. #1722
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    For vaccinated people here.
    Be aware that you are not scot free , Israel covid and death cases raise after the vaccination.
    https://ourworldindata.org/coronavir...l?country=~ISR
    So don't go licking door handles right away

    (There exists 2 ways to destroy mankind and make a profit out of it, Wars and Pandemics.)
    Last edited by sapator; Feb 8th, 2021 at 11:18 PM.
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  3. #1723
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    (There exists 2 ways to destroy mankind and make a profit out of it, Wars and Pandemics.)
    Doesn't make sense, how can anyone profit if mankind is destroyed. Wont be anyone to count the money.

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    It is also an example of the Gambler's fallacy.
    No it wasn't. At no point did I try to link the timing of the next pandemic to the recency of this one. I merely pointed out the frequency of pandemics is rare: roughly once per hundred years based on available data. Extrapolating from that the median average indicates that, at any point in time, you should plan for a pandemic in roughly 50 years time but with a high degree of uncertainty (basically, no certainty at all).

    A hundred years ago you couldn't go just about anywhere in the world in twenty-four hours. There are literally billions of more people now than then
    That's true but hand in hand with that comes a greater understanding of pandemic spread, both on a personal and societal level, and a greatly increased ability to treat pandemics when they arise. None of us can know but I'm I'm assuming that these factors roughly cancel each other out.

    how can anyone profit if mankind is destroyed
    They can sure make a bundle while it's all burning down. I honestly don't feel that's what's going on with Corona though. I think the pharmaceutical companies have actually taken their social responsibilities very seriously on this and I take my hat off to them for it. (I doubt it'll stop them fleecing us for all we're worth once this is over though)
    Last edited by FunkyDexter; Feb 9th, 2021 at 04:01 AM.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    That's true but hand in hand with that comes a greater understanding of pandemic spread, both on a personal and societal level, and a greatly increased ability to treat pandemics when they arise. None of us can know but I'm I'm assuming that these factors roughly cancel each other out.
    Well it certainly didn't work out like that this time...the virus not "cancelled out" by any means.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    No, but we did a pretty good job with Sars, Mers, Ebola, Swine Flu, Bird Flu... Any of these would have wiped out massive numbers a couple of centuries ago.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post
    No it wasn't.
    Yes, it was. Exactly what the Gambler's Fallacy is all about.

    Every point in time has the same odds.

  8. #1728
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Pharmaceutical companies have actually taken their cash very seriously.
    We were down for 25mil doses in Greece till the end of March and we have around 200.000 .
    That is fine, no one is doing the vaccine anyhow but the problem is that we paid for it and there is no refund here.
    Now, there are a lot of talk about the mutated covid . If the pharms want to profit more they will lock us down for every year for a couple of month with a new mutation, if not then in September all will be over.
    Will have to see...
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  9. #1729
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    No, it's a mis-application of the Gambler's Fallacy. For that to be true, the underlying conditions can't be changing. After all, they are using as examples things like rolls of dice, or simple card flips. In those cases, the probabilities are constant and unchanging, hence the fallacy. However, if the probabilities are NOT constant and unchanging, then the Gambler's Fallacy doesn't apply. It's equally bad to believe in the Gambler's Fallacy as it is to ignore the fact that the underlying probabilities are changing.

    This is the underlying point behind card counting: The underlying probabilities of turning up a 10 in blackjack do not remain the same. In fact, a long run of not turning up a 10 DOES make it more likely that the next card will be a 10, and you can take advantage of that change in probabilities to beat the house.

    Similarly, in this case, the underlying probabilities are NOT staying constant. The incidence of pandemics could easily be increasing for the reasons mentioned. With far more people, and far faster travel, pandemics can spread faster and be more lethal (that takes a bit of explanation, which is not consistent with this train of thought). On the other hand, we may be better at dealing with them, but we still took a year to come up with a vaccine, and it will be two years before vaccination is widespread. So, while we can spread them faster, and deal with them somewhat faster, the underlying probabilities are not the same as they have been, which means that the Gambler's Fallacy is dangerously wrong. It's being used, in this case, as a reason to ignore the fact that the deck has turned hot.

    As for why they can be more lethal: Diseases need to be able to spread to survive. If they are too lethal, they don't get a chance to spread. If we can only travel by donkey cart, the disease has to be fairly slow if it wants to spread, because the host can only spread it slowly. We can now travel very fast, though, so a disease can be much more lethal and still get a chance to spread. We're seeing that with COVID. As long as it can be spread before killing the host, it will move around readily. The gestation period can be faster as long as travel is easier.

    The Spanish Flu was pretty devastating, but we didn't have air travel at the time. I wonder how many it would kill today?
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Yes, it was. Exactly what the Gambler's Fallacy is all about.
    No. If I'd said "we've just had the last pandemic, so we've got 100 years until the next one" that would have been the gamblers fallacy because I would have predicted the probability of a future event based the occurrence of a recent event. I didn't do that, though. I didn't use the occurrence of the current pandemic to predict anything.

    I asserted that these pandemic occur at an overall frequency of once per hundred years. Or in other words, in any given year there's roughly a one in a hundred chance of a pandemic occurring. Given that, if you're going to try and predict and plan for the next event you take the median average in order to minimize error. But it does not follow that an occurrence in year one is any more or less likely than an occurrence in year fifty or a hundred. The probabilities in all years are the same. Hence "but with a high degree of uncertainty (basically, no certainty at all)."
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    One hundred years back, the global population was around 1 billion, and took weeks to cross an ocean. Now, the population is over seven times higher, and we can cross an ocean in hours. I'd say the odds may have been around 1/century in the past, but are FAR higher these days.

    The mechanics of the infection and our bodies response to the infection, are critical. SARS had the feature that you weren't transmissible until you were showing symptoms. I believe Ebola worked the same way. That makes quarantine highly effective. The oddity about COVID is that it is so highly transmissible prior to showing symptoms. Couple that with the deadliness of something like Ebola, and you've got a society-collapsing problem on your hands.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Couple that with the deadliness of something like Ebola
    It doesn't bear thinking about, does it? Thankfully, illnesses that transmit without symptom are really rare. Mainly because symptoms are usually the vehicle for transmission.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Well, their big, hairy, and have claws and teeth.

    EDIT: Oops, got it backwards. You said it doesn't bear thinking about...
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Sounds like one fish story has left a bad taste in Dr. C's mouth:


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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post
    No, but we did a pretty good job with Sars, Mers, Ebola, Swine Flu, Bird Flu... Any of these would have wiped out massive numbers a couple of centuries ago.
    Doesn't that prove my point? I thought you were calling Covid-19 a once in a hundred years plague but you just named a few near misses. They would have been one hundred year pandemics but for science. Not because of any historical measure or average.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Remember when we could just shake these films off after leaving the theater?


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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    They would have been one hundred year pandemics but for science.
    That's the argument I'm making. You're concerned that potentially deadly viruses are becoming more frequent due to population growth and increased travel. I'm acknowledging that that's probably true but probably offset by advances in science.

    Remember when we could just shake these films off after leaving the theater?
    Shaking's not enough now. You have to wash your hands too.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post
    That's the argument I'm making. You're concerned that potentially deadly viruses are becoming more frequent due to population growth and increased travel. I'm acknowledging that that's probably true but probably offset by advances in science.

    Shaking's not enough now. You have to wash your hands too.
    Sometimes I can't take yes for an answer
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Sometimes I can't take yes for an answer
    I'm known to aggressively agree.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    I'd be inclined to disagree. Ebola is too deadly to make a good pandemic. It tends to kill people before they get a chance to spread it. SARS simply went away, and probably always would. It was gone long before any treatment for it was developed, though the work on that certainly gave us a jump start on COVID, since they are related. That one would have fallen without science, since people weren't infectious until they were strongly symptomatic, so quarantine was sufficient to stop it cold. The others were either the same, or just not all that simple to spread. Science didn't stop them, communication did.

    I'm not sure we should be patting ourselves on the back just yet. We moved faster than we ever have on COVID, and that's a positive sign, but I think we need to see another pandemic to be clear on whether or not we are really doing better.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    just got well from corona. home from work 2 weeks, fever (not that high), sweats and a bit of cough. like a normal flu.
    I did have corona 7-8 months ago, but was sick for 5-6 days. almost no symptoms. but this time I was more sick. but nothing serious.

  22. #1742
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Can you catch the coronavirus twice? Here's what research says.

    Basically: No.

    However, while most experts say they don't think it's likely people can contract the coronavirus more than once within a short period of time, "no one wants to dismiss the possibility" of reinfection altogether, Gandhi said.
    But if 7 or 8 months isn't a "short period of time" then this scourge could be with us forever.
    Last edited by dilettante; Feb 11th, 2021 at 04:12 PM.

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    it has been in the news many times that people had corona more than once.
    just this quite recent news about this dude in a coma for 10 months, got it twice:
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...ge-of-pandemic

    also, that link u posted is from july.
    more recent reports show that u can have immunity 7-8 months at least.
    so u can get reinfected after that.
    Last edited by baka; Feb 11th, 2021 at 07:35 PM.

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    home from work 2 weeks, fever (not that high), sweats and a bit of cough. like a normal flu.
    Sounds similar to what I had but I wouldn't have described it as "normal flu" - it was a real kick in the krunchies for me. I had bad stomach upset as well. Did you lose your sense of taste or smell? I didn't (though my sense of smell has been dodgy since I was a kid)

    Science didn't stop them, communication did.
    I partly agree with that (I think it was both) and I would include the communication and knowledge sharing in our improved ability to cope with future pandemics. E.g. today we have the WHO, in 1919 nobody was even thinking about the importance of international cooperation, let alone actually setting up a body.

    Of course, none of us really know how much impact these factors have without further data and the price of that further data is not one we want to pay.
    Last edited by FunkyDexter; Feb 12th, 2021 at 03:15 AM.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by baka View Post
    it has been in the news many times that people had corona more than once.
    just this quite recent news about this dude in a coma for 10 months, got it twice:
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...ge-of-pandemic
    That dude....what can you say....I'm almost on the opposite side of the earth from him, and I'm STILL not sure I'm far enough away. How unlucky can you get? The doctors are probably afraid to get near him lest they be struck by lightning...or a meteor hit the hospital...or a rabid wombat teleport in from Australia...or something.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Reinfection: "Rare, but probably underestimated. Confirmed cases worldwide: 31."


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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Anal probes coming to your clinic soon?

    Why is China giving travelers anal tests for COVID-19?

    Travelers to some Chinese cities have been required to take anal swab tests for COVID-19, a measure that has sparked outcries from other countries, according to news reports.

    This week, officials in Japan complained that some Japanese citizens arriving in China had been subjected to the tests, which "caused great psychological pain," according to the BBC.
    What next?

  28. #1748
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    So, when people talk about alien abductions, I always thought they were referring to people from space, not the Chinese.
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  29. #1749
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Perhaps the Chinese are importing their COVID tests from Antares.

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Or perhaps they think it came from Uranus?
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Well that's going to cut back on tourism. Nobody is going to want to visit the forbidden city if it involves customs visiting their own forbidden city.
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  32. #1752
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    .

  33. #1753
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    However, the EMA added that “there is currently no indication that vaccination has caused these conditions, which are not listed as side effects with this vaccine.”
    Sounds like it might be coincidence.

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    in china ,only lock at home for 1-2 month,and we are work from 2020-3 to 2021-3-12.but usa Maximum number of people confirmed at 2021-1-15.
    If the new crown vaccine hadn’t been invented, the United States might have to spread the virus for more than 2 years,we only use 2-4 month.

    Wuhan officially lifted the control of the Lihan Li Hubei channel at 0:00 on April 8, 2020
    Infusion of 2 bottles of albumin per day, 425 yuan per bottle;

    "Gamma globulin" 8 bottles per day, 600 yuan a bottle;

    The ECMO "artificial lung" starts up 50,000 yuan and costs 20,000 yuan a day.

    Adding in other drugs and manpower, the total course of treatment is 719,575 yuan.

    And this is not the highest currently.

    On the evening of March 15th, Dr. Yang Qingfeng from the Department of Breast Surgery, East Hospital of Wuhan University People’s Hospital, posted on Weibo:

    "The medical expenses of a patient with new coronary pneumonia reached 1.129 million yuan."

    At present, the patient is still in hospital, the cost has not yet been settled, and he continues to burn money every day.



    Just imagine, if you need self-financed treatment, even if your family goes bankrupt, they cannot afford it.

    Fortunately, for this epidemic, countries have paid for us, and all treatment costs are covered.

    Otherwise, it is really impossible to imagine how many people will be destroyed in this disaster...

    In the comment area, netizens left a message expressing shock:

    "More than 1 million, my god, if I pay by myself, I guess I can only choose one day of treatment."

    "In fact, it is not only medical expenses. Taking care of a critically ill patient requires the cooperation of five or six doctors. It consumes 10 sets of protective clothing every day, and the price of one piece is about 400 yuan."

    "This cost is far lower than the actual cost. After all, it does not include the food and lodging, subsidies, sacrificed medical staff pensions, etc., for medical staff transferred from other places. How can this be counted..."

    "Thank you, the motherland is so good!"

    At the end of Weibo, Dr. Yang Qingfeng couldn't help but sigh:

    "Maybe only in China, the state will pay you all the medical expenses for the treatment of new coronavirus pneumonia."
    Last edited by xiaoyao; Mar 11th, 2021 at 09:54 PM.

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    2021-1-27 More than 100 million people diagnosed with new crowns worldwide
    Statistics from Johns Hopkins University

    Beijing News Express (Reporter Xie Lian) According to statistics from Johns Hopkins University, as of 9:22 am on January 27, Beijing time, the number of confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia in the world exceeded 100 million, reaching 100,216,403 cases. The global death toll from new coronary pneumonia exceeded 2.15 million, reaching 2,154,967 cases.

    The five countries with the highest number of new crown confirmed cases in the world are the United States, India, Brazil, Russia, and the United Kingdom. Among them, the number of confirmed cases in the United States exceeds 25.43 million. The five countries with the largest number of new crown deaths in the world are the United States, Brazil, India, Mexico, and the United Kingdom. Among them, the United States has more than 425,000 deaths.

    Beijing News reporter Xie Lian

  36. #1756
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Existing confirmed
    25,122,264
    (china 102,203,Only 0.4% of the infected people in the world,China’s population accounts for approximately 21.5% of the world’s population)
    Yesterday +111,818


    Cumulative cure
    91,241,093
    Yesterday +378,852

    Cumulative deaths
    2,636,218
    (china ,4849,As a result, the death toll from illness only accounts for 0.1%-0.2%)

    Yesterday +10,053

    Quote Originally Posted by dreammanor View Post
    The situation described by the OP will only appear in science fiction movies, it will never appear in China. Although the Chinese government has many shortcomings, people seem unwilling to admit the fact that the Chinese government has the strongest execution in the world. Although this time it will still show its super strong execution power as before, but I think the Chinese government's approach to “blocking the cities” is a bit overreacted.

    Edit:
    Although the Chinese government's execution is super strong, many medical experts in China are not professional, especially those who advocate "Chinese medicine" (in my eyes, they are fake experts)
    Fortunately, the new crown epidemic is not a terminal illness such as AIDS that cannot be developed. There is no cure. Otherwise, half of the people in the United States may die. It is indulgent, and it is forbidden to wear masks and uncontrollable gatherings. Just like a nuclear power plant accident, if you conceal it without reporting it, everyone thought it was just a gas station explosion. This is a serious national negligence.

    Just like China's rice production increase scientists. If the president and officials of the United States promise to bear all the costs of the new crown epidemic, I believe they will certainly not let millions of people die. On the contrary, in the Second World War, the Americans sold arms and made war fortune, and they did not begin to fight back until the Japanese bombed the aircraft carrier.
    Making money is always the first thing. The pursuit of profit maximization is terrible.
    Just like the slaves in the past, they were injured, sick, not treated, sold or killed directly. People are just a car, a machine, just a tool
    Last edited by xiaoyao; Mar 11th, 2021 at 10:12 PM.

  37. #1757
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Sounds like it might be coincidence
    Agreed and I do worry that this might feed into Anti-Vax rhetoric. I can understand these countries having a temporary suspension, though. 1. there are other vaccines they can use in the meantime and 2. I imagine there are autopsies being carried out that will give a much stronger indication of whether the vaccine was a contributory factor. A short suspension so they can be more sure of the vaccine's safety doesn't seem unreasonable, particularly in the Scandinavian countries where infection has been very low.

    "The medical expenses of a patient with new coronary pneumonia reached 1.129 million yuan."
    Ouch. That's around £100, 000 in Stirling or $150, 000. That's a steep figure and more than most of us would consider.

    Maybe only in China, the state will pay you all the medical expenses for the treatment of new coronavirus pneumonia.
    That's not true. Most of Europe has nationalised systems that absolutely do cover the full cost. I'm not sure what the situation in the US for those without medical insurance who contract covid.

    It is indulgent, and it is forbidden to wear masks and uncontrollable gatherings. Just like a nuclear power plant accident, if you conceal it without reporting it, everyone thought it was just a gas station explosion. This is a serious national negligence.
    I agree with this 100%. I think the way politics was allowed to affect the response to this virus borders on criminal and several world leaders have blood on their hands. I think China has some guilt there but I think the UK was worse and the US has been absolutely awful.
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  38. #1758
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    It struck at a bad time in the US. I would expect that ANY other president would have been better equipped to deal with a crisis.
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  39. #1759
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    True. I think we had the same here but less so. We've got kind of a mini-Trump at the moment.
    The best argument against democracy is a five minute conversation with the average voter - Winston Churchill

    Hadoop actually sounds more like the way they greet each other in Yorkshire - Inferrd

  40. #1760
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Yeah, but you had the good fortune that when he got the virus, he had a pretty severe case of it. Had Trump gotten a severe case, he might have taken it seriously, but when it was minor, he was guaranteed to overreact in the wrong direction. The same is true for Bolsanaro in Brazil. Some people won't believe the stove is hot unless they, themselves, got burned. If they DO get burned, though, then it suddenly becomes a very big deal that the stove is hot.
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