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Thread: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

  1. #1521
    PowerPoster kfcSmitty's Avatar
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by dilettante View Post
    The other thing we don't get is perspective, as in:


    But of course that's garbage too, since it wasn't delivered by a corporate news actor reading prepared lines off a monitor.
    Not sure what you're trying to show there. I watched John's video as well.. his point was that the second wave is hitting, and you seem to have politicalized it to be like "See, the media is lying to you!"... What exactly is your point?

    I also note in that graph that the US has done much worse than everywhere on it up until around mid-august it seems. Fingers crossed their slope stays at the relatively low point it is as now, but the angle does seem to be trending up at almost the same angle as the UK.

  2. #1522
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    My point was that the media is currently selling the line that "There is no hope, no immunity" when that is very unlikely to be true.

    They easily dupe the uninformed public by pointing at things like antibody levels tapering off over time, ignoring the long-term mechanisms that begin producing more antibodies on demand in the future.

    I'm de-politicizing the topic if anything.

    You are of course correct that the chart shows how the U.S. hit its second wave earlier than those other countries. But it also shows that things are going bad there far faster than in the U.S. right now, and that runs counter to the media narrative.

    The situation isn't great for any of us but there are hopeful signs. Evidence does not support a theory that there is no immunity to be had and the U.S. doesn't have as far to come for things to improve as many other places. Not that we're doing great, just better right now than we might be.

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    Hyperactive Member Delaney's Avatar
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker View Post
    You might as well start posting flat earth stuff.
    WHAT!! the earth is not flat? I would have been lied to!!



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  4. #1524
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Clearly John is both an idiot and a Russian spy, but for those not blinded by political propaganda he reiterates a hopeful outlook today:


  5. #1525
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    I think you're following the wrong media. I haven't heard any suggestion that there is no hope and no immunity. As far as I can tell, the general consensus is that a vaccine will be out sometime in the first or second quarter of next year, with the first quarter being most likely, but widespread coverage not showing up until the second quarter.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    But it also shows that things are going bad there far faster than in the U.S. right now, and that runs counter to the media narrative.
    I think you are behind on current events...
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  7. #1527
    PowerPoster kfcSmitty's Avatar
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by dilettante View Post
    My point was that the media is currently selling the line that "There is no hope, no immunity" when that is very unlikely to be true.

    They easily dupe the uninformed public by pointing at things like antibody levels tapering off over time, ignoring the long-term mechanisms that begin producing more antibodies on demand in the future.
    Maybe it is because I've cord-cut and I don't just get the nightly news or whatever, but I'm not sure I've seen anything that says there is no hope. However, I know my wife is much more fearful of this than I am, so maybe it is the stuff she reads?

    However, her fear keeps coming from "we don't know enough and I'm not willing to risk our kids" regardless of the chances of being infected. My city has very low rates.. we only have 6 cases and, for example, my martial arts gym is fully open without masks and they do BJJ and submission wrestling, so there is obviously no social distancing.

  8. #1528
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    If you want to know where we are going you have to look at trends in new cases, not past aggregates.

    As for China:

    Life after lockdown: has China really beaten coronavirus?

    China does not include asymptomatic infections in its final tally.

    Late on Monday night, Wuhan’s health commission published a Q&A explaining how asymptomatic cases are dealt with. On why such cases are not included as confirmed cases, the commission said that patients were quarantined for 14 days and if they began to show symptoms they would be designated as confirmed and that data would be published.

    “A small number of asymptomatic infections may progress to becoming confirmed cases, but the vast majority [of patients] will heal by themselves,” it said.

    Critics also question why recovered patients who retest as positive are not counted. Data from quarantine centres in Wuhan showed that the possibility of recovered patients testing positive again was between 5% and 10%, according to the state-run Global Times. Officials in Hubei have said those patients would not be recorded as new confirmed cases because they had been counted previously.
    So as we've known for over 7 months, China fudges its figures. It is basically relying on masks to moderate its run toward natural herd immunity. Has it worked? We can't tell, their figures are pure BS.

  9. #1529
    PowerPoster kfcSmitty's Avatar
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by TysonLPrice View Post
    I think you are behind on current events...
    The #'s dil posted are cases per million per country on 7 day average. It appears yours is just overall cases period, so that would be where the difference lies.

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by kfcSmitty View Post
    However, her fear keeps coming from "we don't know enough and I'm not willing to risk our kids" regardless of the chances of being infected.
    There is nothing to be lost by being cautious as long as you don't let it drive you into poverty.

    Some people can move to work-from-home. Others have to rely on cutting back on spending and dipping into savings. And this is the sort of long-term event we're supposed to be maintaining savings for in the first place.

    I worry about people who bought into slacking, conspicuous consumption, and credit as a lifestyle. They are pretty screwed, just like those who made an effort but found the odds against them through no fault of their own. We've all made our share of bad choices and had misfortune, they just gang up on some people much harder than others.

  11. #1531
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by dilettante View Post
    If you want to know where we are going you have to look at trends in new cases, not past aggregates.

    As for China:

    Life after lockdown: has China really beaten coronavirus?



    So as we've known for over 7 months, China fudges its figures. It is basically relying on masks to moderate its run toward natural herd immunity. Has it worked? We can't tell, their figures are pure BS.
    If you want to know where we are at turn on a TV and go to any channel but Faux news. The virus is exploding on a daily basis. We are shattering records.
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  12. #1532
    PowerPoster kfcSmitty's Avatar
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by dilettante View Post
    There is nothing to be lost by being cautious as long as you don't let it drive you into poverty.

    Some people can move to work-from-home. Others have to rely on cutting back on spending and dipping into savings. And this is the sort of long-term event we're supposed to be maintaining savings for in the first place.

    I worry about people who bought into slacking, conspicuous consumption, and credit as a lifestyle. They are pretty screwed, just like those who made an effort but found the odds against them through no fault of their own. We've all made our share of bad choices and had misfortune, they just gang up on some people much harder than others.
    Yeah I don't really feel the effects of covid, other than not being able to see my family, and my kids not going to school. I work from home, am able to get out and get all the supplies I need for any home-projects I want, and wasn't extremely social (other than work) anyway.

    However, I have friends who were laid off for 6 months and were just getting a tax-free supplement.. They also didn't bother keeping any aside for taxes, so there is going to be another hit for them. They, obviously, are more angry about the whole situation than I am and are fed up with what little limitations we currently have in my city and they're pretty anti-mask.

  13. #1533
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Yeah, I'm pretty lucky as well. The company saw where things might be going, and had us do a "trial" wfh one day... that was Friday Mar 13 ... fortunately it was a success, as everything went to pot over the weekend, and we've been under a wfh mandate ever since. I worry it may become permanent... it has it's advantages (no commute)... but I do miss getting out of the house and seeing other people. As it is, the mandate is still in effect until Jan 4 '21. On a related note, overall they have noticed no discernible decline in productivity, that it has in fact gone up. We are achieving goals and levels of service ahead of what we had pre-covid. *shrug*

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Another voice of reason:


  15. #1535
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    We aren't at a mandatory WFH, but most appear to be doing it anyways. For me, it saves a minimum of 70 minutes of driving, and two gallons of gas. That's fairly significant.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Makes you wonder what they're doing with all of that vacant office and supporting space. Filled with servers? Or warehousing all of the toilet paper?

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    For the love of Hillary,

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    Somebody throw a bucket of chocolate ice cream on me!

  18. #1538
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by dilettante View Post
    Makes you wonder what they're doing with all of that vacant office and supporting space. Filled with servers? Or warehousing all of the toilet paper?
    That's an issue of concern for landlords. The Economist, and others, are reporting that several companies are likely never to go back to full occupancy...because if this works, they don't have to rent office space.

    Ultimately, I think it works somewhat better for established employees rather than new employees. It gets pretty impersonal when you are always remote, so if relationships haven't formed, they likely won't, or at least not to the same extent.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Why didn't you qualify?
    He doesn't mention naturally acquired herd immunity (in fact, he doesn't mention herd immunity at all) he says that the memory T cells produced as a side effect of a vaccine is likely to be effective.

    Edit> missed a whole page of posts again. I really need to stop doing that.
    Last edited by FunkyDexter; Yesterday at 05:38 AM.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    U.S. reports nearly 90,000 new coronavirus cases amid surges in every swing state

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...ve-updates-us/

    Maybe part of the reason I take this seriously when you don't seem to is I have felt the loss from people close to me. A co-worker's mother in law got it and died. He sister in law got it taking her to the hospital and later died. A good friend of mine's daughter caught it and died leaving behind two kids. People, mostly Trump supporters in my opinion, that down play what is going on stings to me. All three of them died in very unpleasant circumstances, that is, suffered until the end. Every single time you make light of that with your inane posts it just depresses me.
    Last edited by TysonLPrice; Yesterday at 04:11 AM.
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  21. #1541
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    You are of course correct that the chart shows how the U.S. hit its second wave earlier than those other countries
    Look again. It's not a second wave, it's a third. You had one in March, one in June and now another in October. Worse, they're not really "waves" in the US, they're "step ups" because you've failed to get the infection rate back down again each time. This is important because, if you want to measure the damage that the virus has done, it's not the height of the curve, it's the area under it. That's where Trump's failure can be seen.

    The current wave does appear, so far, to have hit Europe harder than the US but look back at March and you will see the same pattern. European surges preceded the US ones. If there was a line for Italy in that graph you'd see that effect really starkly. So you're take away from that graph should not be that the US's infection rate is somehow better than Europe's, the take away should be that it's probably simply lagging it. This is not to say that the US specifically lags Europe, rather that these waves hit different places at different times but, once one starts, it's going to go pretty much everywhere before long and there's nothing that's going to make the US exceptional in that.
    Last edited by FunkyDexter; Yesterday at 09:51 AM.
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  22. #1542
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    A friend of mine made an "interesting" suggestion (note the quotation-marks):
    "Actually, we could defeat that blasted virus quite easily: The whole world just has to stop for 4 weeks, all at the same time.
    And the impossibility of it is just a sad reflection of todays society"

    An interesting idea.......

    Just recently having watched a documentation about the Black Death in Europe some centuries ago, it kind of reminded me in a scary way of todays situation......
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  23. #1543
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    The U.S. as a whole hasn't done particularly well, it just isn't the extreme outlier failure the media here make it out to be for electioneering reasons.

  24. #1544
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Waves come in threes.


    (I don't really believe that, it's just a common cliché)

    @Dil: I disagree with the electioneering reasons. I'm a bit surprised that you do, because it seemed like you were taking the virus more seriously than I was, so to hear you suggesting that you no longer believe it is a bit disconcerting.

    Idaho is gaining cases rapidly, but as in every other wave, we're kind of bush league. If we had a million cases...well, that would be pretty much all of us, so even with a surge, our actual number of cases isn't getting all that much attention anywhere else. We're having our own, private, pandemic. Out of sight, out of mind from the rest of the country, and handling it in that fashion, as well. We seem to be doing things differently from everyone else. We had a lockdown, a responsible plan for recovery, then ignored our plan. That's pretty consistent with other parts of the country, but what's really odd is that we're running a massive budget surplus at the state level.

    Now we're doing a weak, wishy-washy, partial re-semi-lockdown. The governor laid out four stages of reopening, initially, with different types of businesses included in each of the different stages. Now we've stepped back from stage four to stage three, but not really stage three, because the set of businesses has changed in a fairly arbitrary fashion.

    Overall, I'm still fine with this approach, as I benefit from it. However, it has hit somewhat close to home. I don't know anybody who has died, but a few people who got pretty sick. If that's as much impact as I feel, I'll be pretty happy with that.
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  25. #1545
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    I think you are reading things into what I've said.

    I take it quite seriously. I just don't buy the argument that we've made worse decisions than the rest of the planet and we're far worse off. We're bad off, but not in the worst shape.

    I don't really see what else we could have done. If we wanted outcomes like NZ we'd have had to isolate a very large geographic area with tons of people (unlike tiny empty NZ or relatively empty Australia). Not only that, we'd really have to go ahead and interdict the breeding grounds, the big cities. That just wasn't going to happen for both social and economic reasons.

    So it gets old watching the Biden Campaign fueling the insane hair on fire mentality, arguing both that "there is nothing to be done, the end is near" and "Trump didn't do enough, it's all his fault."

    Frankly it was already clear enough by mid-January where things might go and what would stop them. We should have slammed the borders shut and blockaded every road leading in or out of our big cities. Our politicians all knew this. Instead the only viable thing to do was impose a lot of half-hearted measures at both the federal and state level and accept long term pain.

    It still goes on today. Cities go through massive outbreaks, then you see the infection spikes ripple out across the countryside, bounce back from natural borders back into the cities. Rinse, repeat.

  26. #1546
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    I don't really see what else we could have done.
    Then you haven't been paying attention to what places like South Korea have done. Testing and tracing, from the start, not after there are already 40,000 new cases a day.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

    Go to that link and sort the grid by deaths/million. Is the richest country with the most resources available suppose to have one of the highest death rates. Why aren't we leading the way and setting an example. The US has less than 5% of the worlds population but has 20% of the world deaths.

    But we have a president that has down played (lied) about the problem, has never developed a meaningful national strategy and is going around the country holding mass rallies with no mask required. Trumps has been killing people for months. He might not pull the trigger but he leads them in front of the bullets.

  27. #1547
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Yeah, we couldn't match New Zealand. There are economies of scale...but not when it comes to quarantines.

    Still, we could have done something more effective than what we did. We were destined to have 50 different responses, some of them good, some of them bad, and some of them both (Idaho). The initial lockdown should have given us time to do something, such as test and trace, but we couldn't do the first part, so the second part was kind of pointless. However, we recognized that we needed better testing, and it looks like we have that now. We could have foreseen that we would get to the point of better testing, at which point test and trace would have been viable in large parts of the country. To do so, we would have needed some effort put into the trace part, just as effort was put into the test part. That didn't happen, and that one IS on Trump. He's the only person who could have made it happen, and he explicitly did not.

    So, how could he have made it happen? He could have made a deal with Nancy Pelosi, which McConnel would have gone along with. The deal would have included this or that, it barely matters, because the key point would have been the key sticking point that kept a second relief from getting accomplished: Aid for the states. Most states can't afford to do an effective test and trace. A patchwork effort would have been totally ineffective due to the issues of scale. Aid to the states with a stipulation of test and trace, with the backing of the president, would have made it happen. Poorly in some places, pretty well in others. I think this state would have done quite well, but ONLY if the president backed it. He wasn't willing to, though. He repeatedly said that he wouldn't accept any responsibility and that it was up to the states. That's not leadership. This state would have followed his lead had he led, but he refused, and here we are.

    Trump had the ability, but he refused it, and in doing so, he has pretty much doomed any subsequent attempt. If he wins, he won't change anything for the better. If Biden wins, Trump will undermine any attempt to fix things. He'll still have the power to do so, because this state will still follow whatever petulant nonsense he comes up with.
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  28. #1548
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Don't try to pretend there is some magic in "testing and tracing" because there is not. What South Korea did was test, trace, isolate, and when necessary incarcerate.

    Being a relative monoculture with high levels of education, social cohesion, and personal responsibility the "isolate" step was very successful on a voluntary basis. Very few people had to be forcibly quarantined, but where necessary there was no hesitation and high public approval.

    In the U.S. we have idiots of all stripes running around loose caring only about approval within their own cults. Cults believing in all sorts of craziness from normalization of narcotics consumption and burning down private property to worship of firearms or fanciful invisible entities living in other dimensions, trees, crystals, and/or manufactured idols. All of them suspicious of their government, their neighbors, and not even too sure about their own family members.

    South Korea's model might have worked in the 1950s, early '60s U.S. but there is no way it could fly in the dystopia we have today. A dystopia wrought in large part by two political parties bent on dividing people into warring camps so they can be more easily controlled and milked of resources.

    But there are a lot of simple minded people here who want to invoke the "test and trace" incantation. Well the Brits and French are doing that. How's that worked out for them, eh? Not well.
    Last edited by dilettante; Yesterday at 06:55 PM.

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