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Thread: No Deal

  1. #161
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    they are all very worried about what a hard border would do
    I think this is the crux of it really. When people say "Hard Border" I think the image that lurks deep down in many of our psyches is rolls of barbed wire with guard stood to attention ready to raise a barrier and let a staff car through - and he's probably wearing a WW2 Nazi uniform. Of course, rationally we know that's not what we're talking about but that's the emotional reaction many of us have. Largely because that style of checkpoint really did exist in Ireland (and not just along the border) right up until the early 90s.

    Of course, rationally, we know that the "hardest" we're looking at would be a lot more like a toll gate on any of the public highways up and down the country - a set of booths that most of us will drive straight past with a brief queue before hand. An inconvenience, certainly, (and a major one if it happens to be on your commute or between you and your best mate's house - which it will be for a great many Irish citizens , we're integrated now) but not oppressive in the way that the checkpoints used to be. Of course, that's not great either because those gate's are going to be the first thing any new paramilitaries will target in the hope that they can force us to militarise them. If they can do that the feelings of oppression could start to return.

    That's why I said the real danger of a border is that it could introduce a sense of "otherness". I don't really have a good word for that but I was trying to get across that the Irish really have been able to come together and start viewing themselves as "one people" again for the first time in centuries. There're still rivalries, of course, but these days they're mostly friendly and the Irish people are more united than divided these days - they share a single rugby team, for example. (That's not to say that there aren't still simmering resentments in some areas and violent men will seek to exploit them - there's a peace wall in Belfast for a reason - but those flashpoints are the exception rather than the rule now). Anything that introduces a disconnect in that sense of togetherness is a risk and soldiers guarding checkpoints would be driving a massive wedge between the people.

    Of course, I think you can have a border without any infrastructure at all and I've explained why but I appreciate opinions differ. But even if some infrastructure ends up being necessary the hardest I envisage is a few booths on a few of the major highways. I think we're in a place where we can manage that.

    in effect the Good Friday agreement would be broken
    Technically not. The GFA actually doesn't say there can be no infrastructure. It says the security arrangements should be normalised and that included the removal of security installations. Check the BBC here. This was really referring to the military style checkpoints and barracks that were spread over Ireland when it was signed. I feel I'm making a disingenuous argument here, though, as I agree the spirit of the agreement would be being broken even if the precise wording weren't.

    But I see the GFA as having done it's job. I'm willing to see it bent a little if it gets us all out of this mess and if it can be done without endangering the peace that the GFA (and all the hard work that's gone with it) bought us.
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  2. #162
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Technically not. The GFA actually doesn't say there can be no infrastructure. It says the security arrangements should be normalised and that included the removal of security installations. Check the BBC here. This was really referring to the military style checkpoints and barracks that were spread over Ireland when it was signed. I feel I'm making a disingenuous argument here, though, as I agree the spirit of the agreement would be being broken even if the precise wording weren't.
    I am pretty sure that the Irish nationalists will ignore your technical argument and see it as broken which really is all that matters.

    But I see the GFA as having done it's job. I'm willing to see it bent a little if it gets us all out of this mess and if it can be done without endangering the peace that the GFA (and all the hard work that's gone with it) bought us.
    And this is where we differ, you believe that the past is behind everyone in Northern Ireland and will never return, but your not in the majority in that view even most of the Conservative party don't want to introduce that hard border, as they know even if it started off as just booths all it would take is a few attacks at the border to militarize it.

    Your comfortable with the risk, many in Northern Ireland are not and many people in England are not.

    Here is one of many differing views https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-47272124
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  3. #163
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    I am pretty sure that the Irish nationalists will ignore your technical argument and see it as broken which really is all that matters.
    You might have missed the bit where I acknowledged my own argument as disingenuous. You were asking about the GFA so I filled in the raw factual detail but I agree that the raw facts do not represent the entire situation or even come close to it.

    And I don't want to introduce a hard border - neither do I think it's necessary. But I suspect your definition of what constitutes a hard border differs from mine. And I'm damn sure the EU's will differ from the UK's. That's one of the problems I have with the backstop - it contains no definition of its own exit conditions. We'll be able to throw this debate back and forward until the cows come home but we'll never be able to agree because we're having two different conversations.

    Anyway, I've caught up on yesterday's events a bit better now. So three ministers resigned. None of them particularly big players but, still, that's now 10 this year which is a pretty startling count for the first quarter of the year. And what parliament actually gained was the right to dictate the debating agenda tomorrow which they'll use for indicative votes. I'm curious to see how that will play out - it could offer some way through but my hunch is it will just be even more chaotic than what we're seeing already. Still we've tried everything else so...

    An important consideration though: none of the indicative votes are in any way binding and May has already said she'll ignore anything that involves abandoning Brexit or holding a second referendum Given that she's already agreed (albeit non-binding) to take no deal off the table I think that still just leaves her deal as the only option she'll countenance. That said, if some solution does present itself and get a decent majority in the house she'd be under MASSIVE pressure to adopt it or resign. But this is Theresa May we're talking about - she redefines stubborn.

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  4. #164
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    You might have missed the bit where I acknowledged my own argument as disingenuous.
    No i saw it but i would never let something like that get in the way of a good argument

    none of the indicative votes are in any way binding and May has already said she'll ignore anything that involves abandoning Brexit or holding a second referendum Given that she's already agreed (albeit non-binding) to take no deal off the table I think that still just leaves her deal as the only option she'll countenance.
    Yep that was how i saw it too, She is "Listening to other options" which means ignoring them !

    That said, if some solution does present itself and get a decent majority in the house she'd be under MASSIVE pressure to adopt it or resign. But this is Theresa May we're talking about - she redefines stubborn.
    This will the interesting bit, it still feels like we are in groundhog day at the moment and are just waiting for someone or something to break the cycle
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  5. #165
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post
    My family is Irish (my name's Declan which is kinda a clue). We're predominantly from Eire (Limerick) but I have cousins and friends from all over, including the North, and I'm old enough to remember the troubles although I myself was living in England.
    I'm not sure about the pronounciation of Eire, but if I have it wrong, you'll soon find out:

    A funky ol' dexter from Eire
    Who, of Brexit, was really quite wary
    You're loose in the flue
    To leave the EU
    But if you're going, then surely don't tarry.
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  6. #166
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    No, it's more like:-

    A funky ol' Dexter from Eire
    Was too old for the style of his hair
    With regards the EU
    He hadn't a clue
    But he had Irish citizenship and a passport so he was allowed to live there... Also, no sense of rhythm.

    By the way, limericks have absolutely nothing to do with Limerick (I think they were actually an English invention) which is famous for three things: drugs, stabbings and having been a bastion of republicanism. It is not a nice town.

    This will the interesting bit
    If a concrete suggestion does come out of it my hunch is she'll finally resign before she backs down. If more chaos comes of it... God knows.
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  7. #167
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Limericks may have been an English invention, but they met their pinnacle when they arrived in Nantucket.

    Still, my contribution showed pretty clearly how I thought the pronunciation went, and yours showed clearly how it should have been. In that way, they certainly served their purpose better than a bunch of pronunciation marks. More entertaining too....for the most part....except for the sign along a bike trail in northern Idaho that names a spot based on some tribal name, and it has a single ( in it. I have NO idea how to pronounce that, and even a limerick likely wouldn't help.
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  8. #168
    PowerPoster boops boops's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker View Post
    it has a single ( in it. I have NO idea how to pronounce that, and even a limerick likely wouldn't help.
    It must be the phonological equivalent of one hand clapping.

  9. #169
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    That piqued my curiosity so I googled "Idaho place with a single (". The first hit was this. I don't know whether it says more about me or Idaho.

    Edit> Unperturbed I decided to press on with my investigation and googled "Idaho weird place names". Turns out there's somewhere called "Slickpoo".

    You Americans are weird.
    Last edited by FunkyDexter; Mar 27th, 2019 at 03:18 AM.
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  10. #170
    Fanatic Member 2kaud's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    If/when the UK does leave the EU, IMO we should - and I say this as a Unionist - give the people of Northern Ireland a referendum to either stay in the UK or become part of a united Isle of Ireland. And honour the result.
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  11. #171
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    If/when the UK does leave the EU, IMO we should - and I say this as a Unionist - give the people of Northern Ireland a referendum to either stay in the UK or become part of a united Isle of Ireland. And honour the result.
    The DUP would allow a referendum on this over there dead bodies, it's not ever going to happen. It also ignores history, the Good Friday agreement and the reality of the current arrangement and why that compromise works.


    Also being a Unionist it seems strange that you want referendums that could lead to the breakup of the union, do you advocate a referendum for Scotland and Wales too?
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  12. #172
    Fanatic Member 2kaud's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Scotland had one. They voted to stay within the UK.
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  13. #173
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Yeah, I can see where you're coming from but I'm with NSA on that one. It ignores history. I'm also fairly sure that referendum would be won by the unionists anyway - really not completely sure though.

    I could maybe, kinda, sorta see an independent Northern Ireland working - that way it could maintain ties with both it's neighbours to whatever level it wanted. I don't think there's a hunger for that either though. Honestly, anything you suggest on Northern Ireland is a can of worms.

    Anyway, last nights development was truly fruitcake. Senior Tories (mostly ERG) are offering to support May's deal if she agrees to resign. Now, setting aside what our opinions of the deal and it's alternatives are, surely the deal is either right or it's not. How does a politician get to the point where they view something this important as a career bargaining chip?! I am
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  14. #174
    Fanatic Member 2kaud's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    The ERG think that with a new leader (a true 'Brexiteer') they can 'unpick' some of the 'deal' during the coming trade negotiations. There's no way they are going to have May and her team negotiating the trade deal if a deal is agreed. That's why Mogg et al has now said they'll back the deal (if she goes and the DUP come on board).
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    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    The ERG think that with a new leader...
    Yeah, I think you have the motivation right. What I find so objectionable, though, is the duplicity inherent in that. Voting for a motion on the condition that you can overturn it later is pretty low.
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  16. #176
    PowerPoster PlausiblyDamp's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post
    Yeah, I think you have the motivation right. What I find so objectionable, though, is the duplicity inherent in that. Voting for a motion on the condition that you can overturn it later is pretty low.
    I just don't get how badly our politicians are acting on the world stage. If we leave the EU we will be required to negotiate our own trade deals and we are constantly and publicly saying that we can strike whatever Brexit deal we want because we can always renege on it later. Who on earth is going to treat us as a reliable trading partner when we are saying this kind of thing. We have threatened to do this with our £39 billion settlement, which isn't a payoff but simply meeting our financial obligations, we are saying this about the Brexit agreement too. So that means we are pretty much admitting we are willing to cheat on the two things that involve Brexit - the withdrawal agreement and associated legal constructs and the settlement.

    Would you trust us?

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    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by PlausiblyDamp View Post
    I just don't get how badly our politicians are acting on the world stage. If we leave the EU we will be required to negotiate our own trade deals and we are constantly and publicly saying that we can strike whatever Brexit deal we want because we can always renege on it later. Who on earth is going to treat us as a reliable trading partner when we are saying this kind of thing. We have threatened to do this with our £39 billion settlement, which isn't a payoff but simply meeting our financial obligations, we are saying this about the Brexit agreement too. So that means we are pretty much admitting we are willing to cheat on the two things that involve Brexit - the withdrawal agreement and associated legal constructs and the settlement.

    Would you trust us?
    I was going to take your first sentence and reply with, "we showed you the way." However....I think we showed you the way for the entire thing: Put at utterly capricious person at the head of the government. The end result is that EVERYBODY who deals with you does so halfheartedly while constantly considering other options. It actually works for a little while, then everybody abandons you. Hopefully, we won't reach that point.

    As to the strange place name, since I knew where to look, I could narrow it down. Take a look at the place names on this map. The apostrophes are glottal stops, so what the heck is the parenthesis? Do you have to be unbalanced while saying that name?
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  18. #178
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    As to the strange place name
    Oooh yeah. I've never seen anything like that. Perhaps it's just the bottom half of a smiley. Them tribal folks were a pretty cheery bunch before that unfortunate business with the ethnic cleansing and the small pox.
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  19. #179
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Well, no, but they can be mighty stoic. We sure haven't given them much to smile about. One hand giveth, the other hand doesn't just taketh away...it molests them a bit, too.

    However, as a programmer, I'm morally offended by an unpaired parenthesis. Though, now that I look at it, I realize I got a bit too hung up on the parenthesis. I can't pronounce most of the rest of that word, either.

    It's a terrific bike ride, though.

    You have two days till the 29th is reached. At this point, I can't even tell whether on not the 29th matters anymore, and if it does, why? It doesn't sound like you lot can keep it straight, either, so I don't feel too bad.
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  20. #180
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    I can't even tell whether on not the 29th matters anymore
    As I sit here now, I can't remember either. I know a vote to ask for an extension passed through parliament and I know the EU offered an extension into April or May depending on whether the deal was agreed but I don't remember anything passing into law. I don't think it did, which would mean we're still defaulting to crash out on the 29th but I'm pretty sure I must have missed something there.

    Anyway, 8 alternatives debated yesterday. They voted down every... single... one...
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    PowerPoster PlausiblyDamp's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post
    As I sit here now, I can't remember either. I know a vote to ask for an extension passed through parliament and I know the EU offered an extension into April or May depending on whether the deal was agreed but I don't remember anything passing into law. I don't think it did, which would mean we're still defaulting to crash out on the 29th but I'm pretty sure I must have missed something there.

    Anyway, 8 alternatives debated yesterday. They voted down every... single... one...
    The legal thing got weird... The deal offered by the EU effectively changed the legal date for exiting as far as Europe was concerned, we still needed to change the UK law to match otherwise we would technically still be in the EU but or laws would no longer match reality. It was one of the things that was voted through yesterday so we are no longer leaving on the 29th.

  22. #182
    Fanatic Member 2kaud's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    If May's deal is approved by close of Parliament 29 March, then we leave the EU on 22 May with a deal. If May's deal is not approved by then, then we leave without a deal on 12 April unless in the meantime the EU agrees a further extension based on a UK agreed alternative proposal. Which as these were all voted down looks unlikely. However, it seems that the most popular ones (even though voted down) are going to be resurrected on Monday for another round of indicative voting. If they are still voted down....

    PS It looks like the cut off date for 29 March for a deal to be agreed is being put back to the following week...
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    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    ^That sounds about right but has it actually gone into law yet? As I understand it the European Union Withdrawal Act would need to be amended and I'm not sure that's actually happened has it? N.b. The EU can offer whatever extensions they like but unless the law is changed (which would require an act of parliament) I don't think it actually changes anything.

    I'm sure it will be updated if it hasn't been but the legal position seem unclear at the moment.
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    PowerPoster PlausiblyDamp's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post
    ^That sounds about right but has it actually gone into law yet? As I understand it the European Union Withdrawal Act would need to be amended and I'm not sure that's actually happened has it? N.b. The EU can offer whatever extensions they like but unless the law is changed (which would require an act of parliament) I don't think it actually changes anything.

    I'm sure it will be updated if it hasn't been but the legal position seem unclear at the moment.
    One of the things that was voted on yesterday was a SI to officially change the date, oddly enough some MPs voted against it despite the fact it wouldn't change the date as that is set by EU law but would have caused confusion and many legal problems.

  25. #185
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    ^That sounds about right but has it actually gone into law yet? As I understand it the European Union Withdrawal Act would need to be amended and I'm not sure that's actually happened has it?
    I was confused by this initially as well but apparently the EU where able to legally change the date once the UK asked for an extension. The vote in Parliament yesterday was a strange one as it basically just aligned the UK position with the EU one, but even if it didn't pass the new withdrawal date would still be in effect but certain UK legal stuff would be out of line.
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  26. #186
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Ah, I wasn't aware that that'd been voted on yesterday. I figured someone had to be looking at that stuff but, at this stage, I wouldn't put it past us to just forget
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    PowerPoster PlausiblyDamp's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post
    Ah, I wasn't aware that that'd been voted on yesterday. I figured someone had to be looking at that stuff but, at this stage, I wouldn't put it past us to just forget
    I wouldn't have put it past us to deliberately not pass it, we are taking confusion and disarray to entirely new levels

  28. #188
    Fanatic Member 2kaud's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    The extended date(s) were only offered by the EU in response to May's request for a revised June leave date. The UK parliament could have said no - in which case we would have left without a deal on 29 March - or gone back to the EU for revised date(s). But there was no chance of leaving 29 March as the vast majority of Parliament is against a no-deal exit.

    PS. Apparently some of the EU leaders (French?) didn't want to offer us any leaving date extension at all - but were won round by their other colleagues. They all must agree on any offered leave extension. If we go back to them on/before 12 April and ask for a further extension if May's deal hasn't been passed, it is by no means certain that one will be offered. It will take just one leader to say no and that's it - a no-deal Brexit on 12 April.
    Last edited by 2kaud; Mar 28th, 2019 at 08:21 AM. Reason: PS
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  29. #189
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Darn, I should have stuck with my earlier prediction that you were going to crash out. I think I said that it would be a bunch of fussing and fighting, ultimately without result, so you'd go right off the edge, still fussing and fighting. For a little while there, I thought that might be wrong. Should have stuck with that first thought.
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  30. #190
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    Re: No Deal

    It's been reported in the news that parliament can block no-deal by passing an Act Of Parliament forbidding this. Although it can pass such an Act, it may not mean that much. At best all it will do is to stop the UK government actively seeking a no-deal exit - which has never been on the table. Parliament can't stop a no-deal if the EU says there's now no deal and doesn't extend the leave date. In that scenario the UK leaves 12 April with no-deal and Parliament can only stop this by revoking Article 50 as an Act Of Parliament ie. we don't leave the EU at all. As this option was heavily defeated in the indicative votes earlier, this is a non-starter.

    1) The EU exit treaty is passed today. We leave the EU on 22 May on the terms of the Exit Treaty and the Political Declaration subject to Parliament passing the required additional legislation. If Parliament passes the exit treaty, but not the Political Declaration (and other necessary legislation) by 22 May then we leave then with no deal (with no extension possible). That's why Mrs May previously has kept the exit treaty and the PD together for voting - but this option has been ruled out by the Speaker.

    2) The EU exit treaty is NOT passed today. We leave the EU on 12 April without a deal unless Parliament can agree what it does want, have this presented to the EU by 12 April, the EU agrees to this and grants an Article 50 extension subject to conditions and Parliament agrees to its terms. The hard-line Brexiteers are banking on Parliament not agreeing on what it wants (it never has done before in this process!), the EU not agreeing an extension and so the UK leaves with no deal.

    The spanner in the works of all this is a possible General Election. The EU has said that it will grant a leave extension for political events such as another referendum (again ruled out by the indicative votes) or an election. If next Monday Parliament hasn't decided what it wants - or if it has decided and Mrs May says no as she has said she will as these votes aren't binding - then a GE looks more and more likely. Corbyn has said he will call for another vote of no confidence if nothing is agreed on Monday. if this passes then we are into another GE!

    Now that everything is perfectly clear....
    Last edited by 2kaud; Mar 29th, 2019 at 05:33 AM.
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  31. #191
    Fanatic Member 2kaud's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    No-deal Brexit has been rejected (but may still happen according to the EU).
    Remain has been rejected.
    Leaving with a deal has now been rejected.

    Another general election will likely produce another hung Parliament.

    We are now entering the Alternative Universe. Please fasten your seat belts for the turbulent journey between the different realities.
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  32. #192
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    So, I heard that the May's deal was voted down for a third time. I didn't think it would even be up for a vote a third time, according to the speaker....but I guess May's offer to resign was a significant change...and still wasn't enough.
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  33. #193
    Fanatic Member 2kaud's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    The Speaker allowed it because May split the EU exit treaty from the Political Statement - hence it was classed as a new bill (the previous 2 votes were on them combined). This was how she got around the Speaker's ruling - even though this was against the terms of legislation already passed........

    Stop Press. Apparently May's deal could be up for a FORTH time, along with the winner of the indicative vote on Monday, in a sort of run-off election sometime next week?????

    Someone please wake me up from this nightmare.

    PS No matter what, we can only have an agreed Brexit if Parliament passes the EU exit treaty. The EU has stated this isn't going to change and isn't up for discussion. Only the political declaration can be changed. As Parliament has NOT passed the EU exit treaty, the EU is now saying it is most likely we'll leave 12 April without a deal. All talk about customs union, Norway plus etc etc all require the EU exit treaty to be passed! If the Speaker rules that can't be brought back to Parliament again (as he has done for May's combined deal), then the only way to leave with a deal is to dissolve Parliament and bring back the legislation in a new session (which is allowed) and hope it is passed then.
    Last edited by 2kaud; Mar 29th, 2019 at 12:11 PM. Reason: PS
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  34. #194
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    Re: No Deal

    It is utter madness, how can she bring back the same offer for a fourth time? It has been rejected twice, then the WA was also rejected even though the legality of passing just the WA was in doubt anyway, and she wants to bring it back again. Stubborn to the point of complete delusional behaviour.

    The entire Brexit "plan" must be one of the biggest exercises in self harm any country has deliberately inflicted on itself, even worse is the fact it is failing to achieve anything at all. The entire process has gone from "we will have loads of deals lined up" and "we hold all the cards" to "we should probably have sufficient food and hopefully medication".

    We are basing our entire future on being able to negotiate better trade deals than the ones we currently get by being part of the EU, the entire farcical process has shown just how poor we are at negotiating. We have been in utter denial about the EU's approach, we have been in denial about where the real power has been in this negotiation and we have been in denial about how much of what was promised was never going to happen. We are now openly saying we should just agree to anything now because we can always change our minds later! How on earth does that make other countries believe we are trustworthy enough to trade with?

    We are going to be weaker alone than as part of the EU in any trade negotiations, partly because of the relative sizes and partly because we obviously no longer have any skills in negotiating. Politicians are either deliberately lying about or are hopelessly misinformed about WTO rules or about what the EU will and won't offer.

    The indicative votes we are currently making a complete balls up of should have been done two or three years ago, we shouldn't have triggered Article 50 until we at least had a vague outline of a credible plan. "Keep the bloody foreigners out" does not constitute a plan; neither does reclaiming the sovereignty we never lost or having blue passports we could have had at anytime.

    I almost wish some proper adults would step in and take over, a government that signals approval by banging on desks is absurd. Schoolchildren would be told to behave better, plus where the bloody hell do you even get desks that fit adults anyway?

    MPs are voting for a deal that they have resigned over in the past, hell Raab negotiated the deal and then resigned over it, but will now vote for it to save their own political career.

    Any nation deserves better than this.


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  35. #195
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    I almost wish some proper adults would step in and take over
    Trouble is, I'm not sure anyone could. It's certainly easy to look at the actors in this (and I include the EU, I feel a lot less charitably toward them than some of you guys) and point out how ridiculous their behaviour is but I don't think they're the problem. They exacerbate the problem but they're not the root.

    The root of the problem is in the maths of the decision: It's a multiple choice question that we're trying to resolve as a binary decision. There are about half a dozen possible ways forward (more, depending on how granular you want to get) and we're saying we will only accept one of them if it can command a 50% vote. The maths of that simply don't stack up.

    The only way we're getting past this is:-
    1. The interested parties start abandoning their first choice. Very unlikely to happen - nobody will be the first to abandon their first choice.
    2. We change the decision making process to actually acknowledge the maths of the dilemma, i.e. move to an elimination system where second, third etc choices are considered until a single option remains. I suspect something like this is our only way out but it does smack somewhat of Big Brother (the TV show, not the novel) and the wrangling to decide what the options are is likely to be fierce and protracted.
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  36. #196
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Trouble is, I'm not sure anyone could. It's certainly easy to look at the actors in this (and I include the EU, I feel a lot less charitably toward them than some of you guys) and point out how ridiculous their behaviour is but I don't think they're the problem. They exacerbate the problem but they're not the root.
    I disagree, with this fundamentally different choices could have been made at several points, some of those choices may have been politically difficult but its was always possible to deal with Brexit a different way that acknowledged that one side won but that it was a close run thing and there are lot of people on the other side who didn't want it at all. Also the current government could have acknowledged that it wasn't a majority government and as such needed consensus to get any deal through parliament. I understand that this would have brought its own set of problems but would they have been any more problematic then the current ones?

    In many ways despite the awfulness of our current predicament i am selfishly glad this didn't happen what ever happens next the government has been stained by this process.

    and I include the EU, I feel a lot less charitably toward them than some of you guys
    I know you do and i do understand why in general, but not really in how they have acted during Brexit. They have just protected there position haven't they?
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  37. #197
    Fanatic Member 2kaud's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    For round 2 this evening, it's going to be those that got the most marks - the others being rejected - in the first round. Note that it's not a straight forward multi-choice as you vote yes or no to each option. So you can vote no to every one or yes to every one! So it's a series of questions with a binary choice for each. The winner(s) - and there can be more than one winner - are those questions where the number of yes answers are greater than the number of no answers. If there is no question where yes is greater then no, then again no decision has been made!

    I know you do and i do understand why in general, but not really in how they have acted during Brexit. They have just protected there position haven't they?
    Yes. The problem is mainly our side - as we have handled the negotiations very badly .
    All advice is offered in good faith only. You are ultimately responsible for the effects of your programs and the integrity of the machines they run on. Anything I post, code snippets, advice, etc is licensed as Public Domain https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/

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  38. #198
    PowerPoster PlausiblyDamp's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by 2kaud View Post
    Yes. The problem is mainly our side - as we have handled the negotiations very badly .
    I think this is one of the root causes of the current situation. The referendum was offered with no proper checks or planning - something like this should have had a 60% super majority requirement as a minimum, not a slight majority for 52%. It should have been made clear that the referendum was advisory and that there were no guarantees that it would be possible or exactly what the end result would be.

    Once the result was in we should have actually planned what we wanted in honest and realistic terms, not the fantasies we were offered set against the evil EU propaganda of the media. There should have been a cross party consensus before Article 50 was triggered, MPs should have been able to discuss this in constructive ways without it all being tied to party politics.

    We should have then engaged in the negotiations. Seems obvious but instead we spouted claims that we held all the cards, the EU needs us more etc.. and never seemed to take them seriously; you only need to look at how David Davies handled things - hardly bothering to go to the EU, turning up hopeless unprepared, the Schrodinger like assessments that were too complex to explain but also didn't have appropriate detail...to get a feel for our negotiating tactics. Raab then failing to understand that perhaps the port that connected us to the EU was quite important also shows an utter failure to understand the country's problem rather than his party's problem.

    Only now are we having the sort of debate and discussion that should have happened before triggering Article 50, unfortunately it is now taking place in a highly polarised environment of party politics, "will of the people" declarations and a seeming inability to face the situation we are in.

  39. #199
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    They have just protected there position haven't they?
    If their position is ensuring the UK cannot actually leave the EU, then yes, I agree. I do think our approach to this has been worse than theirs but I also think they are far from blameless.
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  40. #200
    PowerPoster PlausiblyDamp's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post
    If their position is ensuring the UK cannot actually leave the EU, then yes, I agree. I do think our approach to this has been worse than theirs but I also think they are far from blameless.
    The EU has definitely been inflexible it how it has approached things, however it has only been enforcing the rules we helped to write. I wonder if they would have shown more flexibility if we had engaged with them in a more serious fashion, rather than all the grandstanding and read-lines. I guess we will never know.

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