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Thread: No Deal

  1. #41
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    The only way IMO is for the EU to treat/believe that no-deal as a serious option which will hurt the EU (and Ireland in particular) more than it hurts us
    It won't though. It'll hurt the EU, sure. But it'll hurt as waaaay worse and they know it. So does May. Hell, even Rees-Mogg knows it. When I hear that position expressed I always think of the scene from Blazing Saddles where the guy points a gun at his own head and shouts "nobody move or the <gentleman of colour/> get's it". Mind you, it worked in Blazing Saddles so maybe...

    I think people misunderstand May's reluctance to remove no deal from the table. It's nothing to do with having a lever against the EU in negotiations and everything to do with how it plays domestically and in the commons. The second she removes it Brexiteers will be up in arms. And it acts as a threat to the remainers/peoples voters that she hopes will get them on board with her deal. Essentially, she's sitting in the middle ground and needs to maintain a threat to either extreme that the opposite extreme could come to pass.
    Last edited by FunkyDexter; Jan 24th, 2019 at 09:15 AM.
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  2. #42

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    Re: No Deal

    Speaking of Ireland, how would they be affected by all this? Isn't Northern Ireland apart of the U.K. and Ireland a separate country that is apart of the EU?
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  3. #43
    PowerPoster PlausiblyDamp's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post
    For the record, I actually think May's deal is pretty good and does offer us a way out if the back stop were removed. In principle it offers a path to a state where we are not subject to the ECJ, do not have to offer FOM, retain access to the common market and are allowed to negotiate our own trade deals. It's everything that both sides argued for. Unfortunately the backstop effectively reverses all of these until such a time as we can guarantee a border free Ireland - with no legal definition of what "border free" actually means, no time limit and no unilateral get out. We would be crazy to sign it while the backstop is in there but get that removed and it's a decent deal.
    Unfortunately this would mean giving up all the trade deals we are part of by being members of the EU and hoping we could get deals at least as good as we are already getting. A country with a population of ~66M and a GDP of ~€2.5T doesn't carry the same bargaining power as a trading block with a population of ~550M and a GDP of ~€19T. That doesn't even take into account Tariffs at borders, delays (even on non-tariff things) at customs. If it was going to be easy to organise trade deals then the government would be boasting about the deals we potentially have lined up, or at least have something to suggest we have something in the pipeline other than Liam Fox assuming we can just copy and paste 40 existing deals without any changes or re-negotiations by the other countries.

    Worst case we will just crash out onto WTO rules and suffer some massive tariffs until we can manage to agree any trade deals, this will mean we are bargaining from a very disadvantaged position as just about anything is better than WTO rules.

    The backstop is always going to be needed if we can't get an agreement, without it we will have no border between the UK and the EU so people, goods, services would be moving between the UK and the EU with no regulation, tariffs or control. This is against the EU rules and also makes a mockery of the idea of "taking back control of our borders" as well.

  4. #44
    PowerPoster PlausiblyDamp's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post
    It won't though. It'll hurt the EU, sure. But it'll hurt as waaaay worse and they know it. So does May. Hell, even Rees-Mogg knows it. When I hear that position expressed I always think of the scene from Blazing Saddles where the guy points a gun at his own head and shouts "nobody move or the <gentleman of colour/> get's it". Mind you, it worked in Blazing Saddles so maybe...
    Exactly, it will certainly hurt both the UK and the EU however it will hurt the UK a lot more. If a company does business with several EU members and one of them is the UK they are unlikely to relocate all the business here to minimise their hurt, they are much more likely to relocate the UK's business to the EU and cut out the bit that is hurting them.

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post
    I think people misunderstand May's reluctance to remove no deal from the table. It's nothing to do with having a lever against the EU in negotiations and everything to do with how it plays domestically and in the commons. The second she removes it Brexiteers will be up in arms. And it acts as a threat to the remainers/peoples voters that she hopes will get them on board with her deal. Essentially, she's sitting in the middle ground and needs to maintain a threat to either extreme that the opposite extreme could come to pass.
    This is and always has been a Tory gamble to placate the anti-EU members of the Tory party who were moving over to UKIP and reducing the Tory majority. Cameron gambled with the country's future to placate parts of his own party, screwed up the rules of the game completely and then walked away from the mess he had created.

  5. #45
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Unfortunately this would mean giving up all the trade deals...
    Yep, I agree with all of that. Actually, I think one of the better possible outcomes is an extension followed by a more controlled hard Brexit at a later date. I think a large part of our problem is that we've spent 2 years negotiating (for which read, making unreasonable demands of the EU which they said right up front they would not accept) and have made no real preparations for a no deal Brexit at all. We only started making any real provision in the last couple of months. While I do think life completely outside the EU will be considerably less comfortable than life in it, I do also believe that we would get by as long as we'd had some time to prepare. I think there is a great deal we could do to alleviate the pain of that transaction but our hubris has meant we've left ourselves no time in which to do it. I think I'd still rate that option below a decent deal but I don't believe it would be as catastrophic as what we could face if we crash out by accident.

    The backstop is always going to be needed if we can't get an agreement, without it we will have no border between the UK and the EU so people, goods, services would be moving between the UK and the EU with no regulation, tariffs or control. This is against the EU rules and also makes a mockery of the idea of "taking back control of our borders" as well.
    I'm going to get a bit pedantic here because I think a lot of people miss-understand the issues around having a border with the EU (not saying that includes you but... "people").

    "Freedom of movement" has nothing to do with people physically walking across borders. It is to do with the automatic rights a citizen has in the country they enter - e.g. benefits, access to health care, entitlement to work etc. Visa free travel and border policing is something different. Free travel existed before the EU and it continues to exist now. You can freely drive in and out of Switzerland or Norway, for example, and don't require a visa. Neither will you see a border guard on one of these land borders.

    However, that lack of policing largely works due to the Shengen agreement, even though we're not in it. I find it distasteful (like I said, I'm rabidly pro-immigration... for everyone) but our society does divide migrants into "the ones we want and the ones we don't (or at least, those we want to strictly control)". At the moment the "the ones we want" = Europeans and "the ones we don't" = Africa and the Middle East (other areas aren't migrating to the UK in sufficient numbers to be much of an issue either way). The Shengen agreement effectively prevents the ones we don't from arriving at the Irish border. A bunch make it to Calais but their numbers are dwarfed by the volume that make it to Greece, Spain and Italy. However, leaving the EU will mean that Europeans will now fall into the "those we don't want category" and there is nothing to stop them turning up on the Irish border and walking straight across. Of course, this isn't a problem if we take the Swiss/Norwegian mindset which is basically "drop by any time you like, but you can't work or avail yourself of our public services without additional permits". So whether this needs physical infrastructure really depends on how we want to treat our European cousins and nobody seems to be discussing the nitty gritty of that yet. I suspect even most leavers would actually be reasonably happy with the Swiss/Norwegian mindset though.

    Services don't need physical infrastructure to police them either. What would you police? You can't flag down a bank transfer. The policing of services across borders would all be by a system of licences etc. and the prosecution of violations. There isn't really any other way to do it.

    Goods are more problematic. You can treat them like services but it's very difficult to trace an illegal good after it has crossed the border. Services (of any significant volume) leave an inevitable digital paper trail - goods don't. However, you don't really need to rigorously police goods at the border itself. You ask for pre-declarations, dip sample and police it in bonded warehouses. So the border could be kept fairly light but it's hard to see how this could be achieved with no border infrastructure at all. Ultimately you need to stop someone before you can dip sample.

    So I'm left feeling that the infrastructure could be light, but probably not no-existent. That's why the lack of a legal definition for "no border" in the backstop seems so problematic to me. Even the countries with open borders (Switzerland, Norway etc.) reserve the right to stand a bloke at the side of the road and flag someone down if they wish. Is that a physical border? If it is we never leave.

    Isn't Northern Ireland apart of the U.K. and Ireland a separate country that is apart of the EU?
    Eire (I'm told I'm not allowed to say "Southern Ireland" any more, even though my families from there and that's how we always referred to it ) is a separate country and not part of the UK. Northern Ireland is part of the UK. Used as a single word "Ireland" typically refers to the combined body, but lately everyone seem to say "the Island of Ireland" for clarity (and also because the Irish just can't resist a good lyric). But it get's muddy.

    Despite the history and the troubles they do share a strong sense of nationality. They field a single Rugby team (and several other sports). I seem to remember their Olympic team is joined as well but don't quote me on it. There are sporting leagues that span the divide. There are families that span it. Heck, there are houses where the living room is in the UK and the dunny's in Eire. Although the North is nominally Unionist (i.e. see themselves as British first) you don't have to look hard to find Republicans who see themselves as Irish first and would like to see a united Ireland. Despite the divisions they are very much united.

    But make no mistake, they are still divided. The Unionist Orangemen still march every year through Republican estates. Huge (and I do mean HUGE) Bombfires are still lit every year. The murals are all still there. All the symbology of conflict is still present. There are sill paramilitaries dishing out punishment beatings and knee-cappings for anyone who steps out of line. There's a frickin' great "peace" wall right down the middle of Belfast and it isn't there for show. It runs through some of the most divided estates in the country and, without it, there WOULD be killings. The wounds in Ireland are healing, they're not yet healed.
    Last edited by FunkyDexter; Jan 24th, 2019 at 02:55 PM.
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  6. #46
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Indeed, despite what a lot of the remainers say, I'm pretty sure almost all of the people who voted leave voted unequivocally for a hard Brexit.
    How can you be sure of that really? isn't it just that those who would like a hard brexit have some of the loudest voices and there arguments about sovereignty (despite no-one really being able to pin down what that term actually means to most people) and trade deals have been heard the most?

    None of that stuff was on the original ballot, the question did not say "would you like to leave Europe with no deal?, and oh just so you know this is what we means by no deal (long list attached)

    People voted to leave for many reason if the polling is to be believed, yes i think we can safely say a fair amount of people voted leave due to immigration and so leaving the single market in that case at least makes sense even if i personally believe it is stupid.

    Not being in a Customs Union has never really been tested as a question one way or another and i would bet that actually if May was really serious about delivering Brexit for the People and she went and said well i cant get my deal through, i dont want no deal, but i an get a majority for a permanent customs union through the house of commons then i think the public would accept that.

    For the record, I actually think May's deal is pretty good and does offer us a way out if the back stop were removed.
    The backstop cant be removed which is why everyone knows its a terrible deal and why it inflicted the biggest ever defeat in the house of commons on the government.

    Mays deal will never get enough votes, She wont go for a customs Union which might just get enough votes, which only leaves two options

    No Deal or another vote. They can extend as much as they like but the choices wont change there is deadlock !
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  7. #47
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Yep, I agree with all of that. Actually, I think one of the better possible outcomes is an extension followed by a more controlled hard Brexit at a later date.
    There is no such thing as a controlled hard brexit, a hard brexit by definition cannot be controlled as it means leaving with out a trade deal in place and falling back onto the defaults.

    If you mean we should leave with a even looser trade deal something like the Canada deal, then every analysis shows that it would be pretty catastrophic for trade and jobs.

    Sometime i really do think people want to cut there nose off to spite there face, there is no version of hard brexit which is good or controlled or which does not end up with making us all considerably poorer.
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  8. #48
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    How can you be sure of that really?
    Well, I'm not 100% sure. That's why I said I was only "pretty" sure. I wasn't talking about my looks. Though I am damn pretty

    No, mostly that's just the impression I get from talking to leavers - and not just the swivel eyed loony ones either. You're right that there was no detail on the ballot about what Brexit actually meant. Those who voted leave mostly voted for an amorphous blob of an ideal but I get the strong impression that that blob centred around taking back control of our law making, trade and immigration policies, which they saw as having been usurped by Brussels. In the conversations I have with leavers this hasn't changed. They've got a better idea of the technicalities and they don't give a damn about them. They want out of the ECJ, no Freedom of movement and the ability to make our own trade deals. I guess the conversations you're having are different.

    For the record, I think they're wrong. But they have a right to be wrong.

    i think the public would accept that
    Possibly but I'm not so sure. If all it meant was having access to the single market (and paying for the privilege) I think you'd be right. But it'd also mean an inability to make our own trade deals. It will also means accepting the EU's standards for quality, production etc which will be seen as "laws from Brussels". And it's likely that the EU would want to attach other conditions, e.g. ECJ jurisdiction and FOM. As soon as any of that stuff gets mentioned support for it will drop like a stone, particularly when people notice the word "permanent" in there.

    There is no such thing as a controlled hard brexit, a hard brexit by definition cannot be controlled as it means leaving with out a trade deal in place and falling back onto the defaults.
    Not necessarily. With an appropriate extension we could spend some time getting the arrangements for trade deals in place. These could include both the EU and the rest of the world. There are technicalities around whether you can actually sign deals during the extension but you can certainly get things arranged and, to be honest, I think the EU would actually accept us signing them as long as they weren't intended to be in place before we actually left. That's the sort of thing I'm talking about when I say we've failed to prepare.

    I'm certainly not suggesting we fall back on WTO rules and start negotiating our deals from there. We'd get taken to the cleaners.

    I'm also not suggesting this would be in any way comfortable. From an economic stand point the best option is categorically staying in, which is why I voted for it. But I do think failing to deliver Brexit in a way that chimes as "meaningful" for the majority of leavers will come back to bite us down the road.

    Sometime i really do think people want to cut there nose off to spite there face
    I agree. Spend some time reading the "Have Your Say" section BBC news and it's like a parade of lunatics.
    Last edited by FunkyDexter; Jan 25th, 2019 at 04:03 AM.
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  9. #49
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    They want out of the ECJ, no Freedom of movement and the ability to make our own trade deals. I guess the conversations you're having are different.
    Yeah that interesting because they are. Everyone in my family voted remain, but 2 members of my partners family voted to leave and i have also spoke on and off with other leavers i have met.

    Immigration is always mentioned, and so is Money the amount we spend on the EU and even now i hear people say we could be spending money on the NHS which when questioned comes directly form Boris's ads during the referendum.

    Those are by far and away the biggest issues brought up sovereignty and laws are rarely mentioned and while i am sure they are important to some people, i am in no way sure they are as important to the majority.

    Possibly but I'm not so sure. If all it meant was having access to the single market (and paying for the privilege) I think you'd be right. But it'd also mean an inability to make our own trade deals. It will also means accepting the EU's standards for quality, production etc which will be seen as "laws from Brussels". And it's likely that the EU would want to attach other conditions, e.g. ECJ jurisdiction and FOM. As soon as any of that stuff gets mentioned support for it will drop like a stone, particularly when people notice the word "permanent" in there.
    A Customs union is not single market, its just a common market for goods and services, so it satisfies those bothered by immigration, yes i agree that it wont satisfy those that want a complete break, but i suppose were we differ is where we think the majority is at.

    Not necessarily. With an appropriate extension we could spend some time getting the arrangements for trade deals in place. These could include both the EU and the rest of the world. There are technicalities around whether you can actually sign deals during the extension but you can certainly get things arranged and, to be honest, I think the EU would actually accept us signing them as long as they weren't intended to be in place before we actually left. That's the sort of thing I'm talking about when I say we've failed to prepare.
    So what your saying is we should be trying to get a looser trade deal with the EU ?

    What are you suggesting those trade deals should look like? For instance Canada which does have a free trade deal with the EU and is what some leave politicians are holding up as a starting point, and it doesn't have anything in it on Services at all.

    The EU have never done a Trade deal for Services with a third party so what makes you so sure they would suddenly decided to do one with us?

    I often come across people saying of course the Eu will do a trade deal with us its in the interests, but in reality its not in there interest to give us a preferential trade deal, in fact i would go as far as saying it is against there interests.


    Also while you may think that some sort of hard brexit maybe the best option it emphatically does not have the numbers in parliament and i dont see that suddenly changing.
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  10. #50
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    Re: No Deal

    Speaking of Ireland, how would they be affected by all this? Isn't Northern Ireland apart of the U.K. and Ireland a separate country that is apart of the EU?
    Yes they are and, what might not be clear from where you are DDay is all the argument around the Prime Ministers deal that she has brought back is around the border between Northern Ireland and the rest of Ireland.

    The backstop that everyone is talking about is a way of stopping a hard border with customs officials and border guards at that border. There are a lot of people who still remember how it was during the troubles when that border was last in place, when there was a lot of people where killed and paramilitary groups (such as the IRA) where still active in Ireland.

    Because of the history between Ireland and Northern Ireland, this is a very sensitive issue, and nobody want to be responsible for reigniting the troubles.

    Currently nobody has any idea how we would not have a hard border in place with out either a customs union, or without a backstop which in effect is a temporary customs union.

    People have talked about technological solutions but currently they dont exists.

    So currently its this issue which is in effect blocking everything.
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  11. #51
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Boris's ads
    Ugh! Don't get me started.

    Immigration is always mentioned, and so is Money
    I heard a lot about money during the campaign but that seems to have dropped off since. In the conversations I'm having folks are reasonably sanguine about paying for access to the market (as long as they perceive the rate to be reasonable) but the don't want to feel like they're subsidising a political club they don't want to be part of. Immigration - yeah, that's a hot one!

    So what your saying is we should be trying to get a looser trade deal with the EU ?
    Probably but not necessarily. I'm really saying we should negotiate the best trade deal we can get without having FOM, the ECJ etc imposed on us and we shouldn't be doing it last minute when things are getting desperate. I suspect that looks a lot like Canada though. More importantly I'm saying we should be getting other deals in place (or at least arranged) with the rest of the world before we leave rather than after. I don't want to lose access to the European free market - it will hurt like hell - but if it comes to that I'd rather have as many alternatives in place and ready to go as possible.
    Last edited by FunkyDexter; Jan 25th, 2019 at 06:39 AM.
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  12. #52
    PowerPoster PlausiblyDamp's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post
    Ugh! Don't get me started.

    I heard a lot about money during the campaign but that seems to have dropped off since. In the conversations I'm having folks are reasonably sanguine about paying for access to the market (as long as they perceive the rate to be reasonable) but the don't want to feel like they're subsidising a political club they don't want to be part of. Immigration - yeah, that's a hot one!

    Probably but not necessarily. I'm really saying we should negotiate the best trade deal we can get without having FOM, the ECJ etc imposed on us and we shouldn't be doing it last minute when things are getting desperate. I suspect that looks a lot like Canada though. More importantly I'm saying we should be getting other deals in place (or at least arranged) with the rest of the world before we leave rather than after. I don't want to lose access to the European free market - it will hurt like hell - but if it comes to that I'd rather have as many alternatives in place and ready to go as possible.
    Unfortunately getting deals in place relies on the other countries to put in the effort to renegotiate things, this may be a priority for us as a nation but it doesn't mean it is a priority for the other countries. In fact the more desperate we get the better deal the other countries will be able to get from us.

  13. #53
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    I get that. But I'd still rather be pushing that process from within than without.

    Pertinent but doesn't really make a case either way
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  14. #54
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    Re: No Deal

    I suspect that looks a lot like Canada though. More importantly I'm saying we should be getting other deals in place (or at least arranged) with the rest of the world before we leave rather than after. I don't want to lose access to the European free market - it will hurt like hell - but if it comes to that I'd rather have as many alternatives in place and ready to go as possible.
    The Canada trade deal took 7 years to negotiate, this is something i dont think people appreciate enough. The Prime Ministers deal is not a trade deal, its is just laying the grounds for one.

    Only if it was agreed would we then start a trade deal with the EU which due to the fact we would be basing it on existing agreements the EU think we might be able to get done in 2 years.

    Trade deals with third party countries generally take much longer as you dont have an existing text on which to base thing on. For example a trade deal with the US takes on average 3 1/2 years to strike a deal and for that deal to come into effect.

    The idea if we delay for a few months that you can have a bunch of trade deals ready to go is just not feasible.

    Also alluding to my reply to dday any form of harder brexit means putting a hard border in place in Ireland.
    Last edited by NeedSomeAnswers; Jan 25th, 2019 at 07:39 AM.
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  15. #55
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    The idea if we delay for a few months that you can have a bunch of trade deals ready to go is just not feasible
    Oh I get that, the extension needs to be looong… but, none the less time limited or accommodating of unilateral withdrawal. The main reason leavers are so anti extensions and back stops isn't because they're salivating beasts desperate to get out by 3:15 this afternoon, it's because they see such measures as attempts to avoid leaving at all. And let's be honest, they're kinda right about that in a lot of cases.

    If an extension were genuinely being used to prepare for a Brexit or if the backstop had the lock-ins removed (it sounds like there's some movement from the EU on that, interestingly, but let's not count any chickens) I suspect you'd see a lot less resistance.
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  16. #56
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    Re: No Deal

    Oh I get that, the extension needs to be looong… but, none the less time limited or accommodating of unilateral withdrawal. The main reason leavers are so anti extensions and back stops isn't because they're salivating beasts desperate to get out by 3:15 this afternoon, it's because they see such measures as attempts to avoid leaving at all. And let's be honest, they're kinda right about that in a lot of cases.

    If an extension were genuinely being used to prepare for a Brexit or if the backstop had the lock-ins removed (it sounds like there's some movement from the EU on that, interestingly, but let's not count any chickens) I suspect you'd see a lot less resistance.
    Non of the leavers i have talked to or leaver politicians would be happy with any extension especially a long extension. And yes part of that is due to the possibility brexit could be stopped but part of it is they want to leave now and have it be done with.

    Currently the extension being talked about are between 3 - 9 months which would still need to get EU approval, and the EU want to see the Votes in Parliament align behind something really in order or agree to an extension.

    Also to link an extension to a definite withdrawal and moving towards a harder brexit would require legislation of some kind and there are not the numbers in parliament to get it through.

    I know something has to change and so something will but i would not put any money at all on some version of hard brexit commanding a majority in Parliament.

    This leads us back to where we currently are we there are only 3 possible options

    Hard brexit leaving on March 29th with no trade deals in place,

    May's Deal

    or a Second referendum.

    At some point one of those options will have to become the way forward.
    Last edited by NeedSomeAnswers; Jan 25th, 2019 at 10:13 AM.
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    Re: No Deal

    *** Double Post ***
    Last edited by NeedSomeAnswers; Jan 25th, 2019 at 10:15 AM.
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  18. #58
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    Re: No Deal

    I know there has been some talk about the EU somehow moving on the backstop but i just dont see this happening at all.

    If for instance there was a time limit put on the backstop it loses all legal force. The UK could potentially just wait until the backstop time limit had ended and then exit the temporary customs unions in any way it wanted to. Just the fact that would be possible makes the UK's negotiating position incredibly strong during that period as they dont have to compromise or negotiate they can just threaten to wait it out.

    So with a time limit a backstop is pointless and server no purpose for the EU. They can't drop the backstop as they wouldn't be fulfilling the obligations to Ireland which is a member of the EU and is remaining a member, so that leaves them virtually no room to maneuver.

    The backstop is there to avoid a hard border in Ireland between the Republic and Northern Ireland, and specifically it is there as no one has come up with a solution as of yet to avoid one (that isn't a customs union) so they are kicking the can down the road indefinitely.
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  19. #59
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    Re: No Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by NeedSomeAnswers View Post
    I know there has been some talk about the EU somehow moving on the backstop but i just dont see this happening at all.

    If for instance there was a time limit put on the backstop it loses all legal force. The UK could potentially just wait until the backstop time limit had ended and then exit the temporary customs unions in any way it wanted to. Just the fact that would be possible makes the UK's negotiating position incredibly strong during that period as they dont have to compromise or negotiate they can just threaten to wait it out.
    If nothing else I think we have proved we can do nothing

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    Re: No Deal

    then exit the temporary customs unions in any way it wanted to
    ...like we can now you mean. That's the problem with the backstop, it actually removes exit options we currently have. At present we can just crash out. That may be horribly unpalatable but it is an option for us. The backstop removes even that option. Signing May's deal literally hands every bargaining chip to the EU.
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    Re: No Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by PlausiblyDamp View Post
    If nothing else I think we have proved we can do nothing
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    Re: No Deal

    ...like we can now you mean. That's the problem with the backstop, it actually removes exit options we currently have. At present we can just crash out. That may be horribly unpalatable but it is an option for us. The backstop removes even that option. Signing May's deal literally hands every bargaining chip to the EU.
    Oh i agree the backstop is terrible for us, but crashing out with no deal is also terrible in fact the only thing to recommend May's deal is that its not No Deal !

    Basically we can chop our legs off or chop our arms & legs off the choice is ours !
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  23. #63
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    Re: No Deal

    It's just a flesh wound.

    Have at ye!
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    Re: No Deal

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    Well the talking heads' predictions over the weekend seem to be moving towards May's deal as a final outcome. They seem to reckon she's simply going to ignore parliament when it debates the amendments and enough MPs will finally get behind it when they realise failing to do so means no deal.

    Scary times.
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    Re: No Deal

    What I find odd is that there hasn't been that much in terms of Brexit talk on the news in the US. I understand that Brexit is a nationally specific event, but it has international ramifications.
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  26. #66
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    Re: No Deal

    Last week's Economist seemed to be leaning towards predicting a no deal Brexit. However, I think an extension is the most likely, at this point. People will keep on fighting and fussing until they reach the edge, then get an extension, which the EU will grant because...it's better than nothing.
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    Re: No Deal

    That's been my prediction but there isn't a majority for and extension in parliament. In fact, support looks like it's waning over the last, though it was waxing for a few weeks before that. Mind you, it's all swinging like a bunch of 70s newly-weds at the moment so who knows.

    Part of the problem is that the European Elections are coming up soon and, if we're still in, we have to run in them even if we're leaving the day after. That means a load of expense which isn't too popular. If I remember right a 3 month extension isn't a problem but won't achieve much. Anything more and I think we pay. (Take that 3 month figure with a pinch of salt - it may not be accurate).
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    Re: No Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker View Post
    Last week's Economist seemed to be leaning towards predicting a no deal Brexit. However, I think an extension is the most likely, at this point. People will keep on fighting and fussing until they reach the edge, then get an extension, which the EU will grant because...it's better than nothing.
    Quite frankly anything is better than no deal, crashing out onto WTO terms would be disastrous for us - unfortunately people pushing for a hard brexit seem to see WTO as some wonderful utopia :/

    May's entire approach seems to have consisted of running the clock down so her bad deal would be accepted in preference to no deal, which is confusing as she was quite adamant that no deal was better than a bad deal.

    I think the EU would be happy to offer an extension if, and it is a fairly big "if", there seemed to be any progress. Given our current approach seems to be the same plan that was rejected in a fairly impressive way but with the added bonus of trying to renegotiate (we have been told we can't) to include new things (things we have been told we can't have) it isn't looking good for an extension.

  29. #69
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    Re: No Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post
    Mind you, it's all swinging like a bunch of 70s newly-weds at the moment so who knows.
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  30. #70
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    Re: No Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by PlausiblyDamp View Post
    Quite frankly anything is better than no deal, crashing out onto WTO terms would be disastrous for us - unfortunately people pushing for a hard brexit seem to see WTO as some wonderful utopia :/

    May's entire approach seems to have consisted of running the clock down so her bad deal would be accepted in preference to no deal, which is confusing as she was quite adamant that no deal was better than a bad deal.

    I think the EU would be happy to offer an extension if, and it is a fairly big "if", there seemed to be any progress. Given our current approach seems to be the same plan that was rejected in a fairly impressive way but with the added bonus of trying to renegotiate (we have been told we can't) to include new things (things we have been told we can't have) it isn't looking good for an extension.
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    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    So, we've got an amendment that removes no deal as an option but it's not legally binding so May will probably just ignore it, and another amendment that sends her back to Brussels to negotiate the backstop which the EU have already said they will renegotiate.

    Ya gotta larf!
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    Re: No Deal

    So, we've got an amendment that removes no deal as an option but it's not legally binding so May will probably just ignore it, and another amendment that sends her back to Brussels to negotiate the backstop which the EU have already said they will renegotiate.

    Ya gotta larf!
    Its still all part of the same running down the clock strategy, she is hoping that someone somewhere will blink and shift positions at the last minute to get her deal through and she doesn't care if it is the EU or right wingers in her own party that blink as long as they do.

    We have two more weeks of prevaricating where we get no further forward in anything apart from the fact we get ever closer to 29th March.
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  33. #73
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    Re: No Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by NeedSomeAnswers View Post
    Its still all part of the same running down the clock strategy, she is hoping that someone somewhere will blink and shift positions at the last minute to get her deal through and she doesn't care if it is the EU or right wingers in her own party that blink as long as they do.

    We have two more weeks of prevaricating where we get no further forward in anything apart from the fact we get ever closer to 29th March.
    Her entire strategy seems to be based on the assumption the EU needs us more than we need them and that if we run the clock down they will blink and give in. However much people like to think this though it is not true, the EU certainly benefits from us being a part of the EU but we benefit a lot more by being members.

    If we leave without a deal then both the UK and the EU will suffer, however we will suffer an awful lot more. The EU is never going to give in if that means changing the fundamental rules it is based on, rules we helped to shape and define.

    I am utterly bemused by our approach of dealing with the backstop as well. The backstop exists as an insurance policy, it isn't meant to come into force but it is there in case things don't work out. We seem to be saying we don't need it because things will work out. Quite how going back on an agreed deal proves we are trustworthy is beyond me, proving we are willing to run the clock down to get our way proves the backstop can't be time limited either.

    Our entire strategy seems to do nothing more than prove the backstop is needed because we can't be trusted to do the right thing.

  34. #74
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    Re: No Deal

    While I'm no fan, I don't think you can pin last night's outcome on May. Last night lies squarely with parliament, not May and not the government. As an individual she voted to renegotiate the backstop but she her share of the responsibility for the outcome is no more or less than any other MP who walked into the lobby. And that highlights the bind, we can agree on what we don't want but not on what we do.

    We seem to be saying we don't need it because things will work out
    The corollary is that the EU is saying we don't need to object to it because things will work out. We are being asked to put our faith in them but they are unwilling to put their faith in us.

    I have to say that on this particular aspect I think the EU is in the wrong for a number of reasons. It removes our right to unilaterally leave the Customs Union - that is a direct attack on the sovereignty of a nation. Nominally it is there to ensure the Good Friday Agreement is upheld. Either the Good Friday Agreement has legal weight or it doesn't - in it's own right. If we crash out tomorrow the issue of a border will still have to be dealt with and the EU will have to find a way of dealing it that works for them. European Nations have already shown a willingness to use it as a bargaining chip for further concession - Macron explicitly said France would refuse to accept it was met unless we gave France fishing rights in our water and if you think the Spanish won't use it as leverage for Gibraltar you're fooling yourself.

    And last but not least, there are already infrastructure free borders operating at the fringes of the EU. Why are we different to the Swiss?

    In any kind of deal you would be a fool to sign up to something that said the other party had absolute veto over whether you could ever leave... ever. I have never, in my life, come across any form of contract that wasn't either time limited or offered both parties a unilateral right to terminate.
    Last edited by FunkyDexter; Jan 30th, 2019 at 07:55 AM.
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  35. #75
    PowerPoster PlausiblyDamp's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post
    The corollary is that the EU is saying we don't need to object to it because things will work out. We are being asked to put our faith in them but they are unwilling to put their faith in us.
    It is like any insurance policy, you don't want to ever use it but you have it in case it is needed. The backstop is simply that, an insurance policy against an agreement not being made.

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post
    I have to say that on this particular aspect I think the EU is in the wrong for a number of reasons. It removes our right to unilaterally leave the Customs Union - that is a direct attack on the sovereignty of a nation. Nominally it is there to ensure the Good Friday Agreement is upheld. Either the Good Friday Agreement has legal weight or it doesn't - in it's own right. If we crash out tomorrow the issue of a border will still have to be dealt with and the EU will have to find a way of dealing it that works for them. European Nations have already shown a willingness to use it as a bargaining chip for further concession - Macron explicitly said France would refuse to accept it was met unless we gave France fishing rights in our water and if you think the Spanish won't use it as leverage for Gibraltar you're fooling yourself.
    If we crash out then there would certainly need to be some sort of hard border, the EU would want to protect the border between itself and us as it would be a source of illegal goods, people etc. If we want to leave in a controlled way then we need to negotiate how the NI / EU border is going to be dealt with. This was always going to be a massive issue but people just ignored it until it became obvious that it would need to be addressed, given how little actual negotiating was done since triggering article 50 then EU needed to protect the remaining 27 nations and preserve the border, in fact wasn't controlling the border one of the Brexit arguments? Having no border between the EU and the UK when we are no longer a member is never going to work.

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post
    And last but not least, there are already infrastructure free borders operating at the fringes of the EU. Why are we different to the Swiss?
    Switzerland is part of the single market and there is in fact a hard border between France and Switzerland which involves checks and delays, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-44054594 gives a run down on the various other borders and they all involve a compromise or other such as actual hard borders, FoM, SM membership etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post
    In any kind of deal you would be a fool to sign up to something that said the other party had absolute veto over whether you could ever leave... ever. I have never, in my life, come across any form of contract that wasn't either time limited or offered both parties a unilateral right to terminate.
    You would be a fool to take out an insurance policy if the insurer could cancel it if it was actually needed.

  36. #76
    PowerPoster ChrisE's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    this Deal IMO is worth nothing.

    just think if you were to sell your car, ok the Insurance is not in my Name
    anymore, but you have to the Taxes each year, the
    new Owner is only allowed to drive 15.000 km/miles a Year

    if you don't pay the Taxes the EU will present a Fine to you
    if you drive more that 15.000 km/miles a year the new Owner will have to account for that

    it is getting ridiculus, the EU should stand back a bit
    what's wrong with letting each country rule themselfs

    so what is the EU doing..
    the EU must set an example here and send a clear message to any other Member
    ...look what is going to happen, when you want to leave...

    the EU was founded in 1945 -19.. to prevent Wars in Euroupe, I don't know the word to use with what's going on now

    here a read why the EU was founded..https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/history_en
    Last edited by ChrisE; Jan 30th, 2019 at 09:23 AM.
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  37. #77
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    Re: No Deal

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    You would be a fool to take out an insurance policy if the insurer could cancel it if it was actually needed.
    Insurance policies are time limited so the insurer has no need to cancel. Honestly, every contract has one or the other.

    there is in fact a hard border between France and Switzerland which involves checks and delays
    The Swiss border is often held up as an example of what could be achieved in Ireland, but here too there is physical infrastructure at all the main crossings
    It's entirely possible to drive across that border, by road, and never encounter a check. I've done it. Heck, I've snow-boarded over it, although I will acknowledge that I couldn't have carried much contraband while doing so.

    That's my point about requiring a clear legal definition of "hard border". It could mean anything from a Trumpian wall with a Checkpoint Charlie at every crossing to a single fluorescent-coated Garda on a quiet country road somewhere near Muff.

    Except in a few rare cases like Cold War Germany and Medieval China borders are completely porous (and even those examples were far from water tight). For that reason you cannot and do not police borders at the border itself. You police them in a two ways: by dip sampling at the major intersections and by using intelligence to track down offenders inside your borders. And then you provide sufficient penalties to act as a deterrent against further offence. You don't fool yourself into thinking checkpoints are what keeps your borders secure - they're just a part of an overall strategy. And in the case of people and services, not a particularly useful part. Goods are more woolly, particularly if you're transporting sheep.

    It's entirely possible that a hard border could be avoided... depending on the definition of hard. I think peoples real concern (I'm generalising, I have friends and family from both side of the border and none of them agree entirely) is not about a check point or two on the major highways. They're more concerned about the para-guarded barbed wire fences on every trivial road crossing that we had in the 70s. But I am generalising and some do want to see absolutely nothing.

    So without a legal definition it's impossible for us to say whether a soft border could be, or more importantly, has been achieved. If we cannot define when it has been achieved we are entering a contract without end.
    Last edited by FunkyDexter; Jan 30th, 2019 at 09:27 AM.
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  38. #78
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by PlausiblyDamp View Post

    You would be a fool to take out an insurance policy if the insurer could cancel it if it was actually needed.

    That's rich. That's how private health insurance works in the US.
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  39. #79
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    While I'm no fan, I don't think you can pin last night's outcome on May. Last night lies squarely with parliament, not May and not the government.
    I really dont understand how you can say this, the whole mess is the governments (the conservative party) and Mays. Everything that has happened subsequently is just consequences from their previous actions. So yes i do blame May and her government for last night and for the whole mess.

    Just focusing on May, She set out her red lines based upon an interpretation of what she decided the referendum meant. It doesn't matter what people think they voted for, the wording on the referendum does not talk about trade deals or customs unions or any detail at all really.

    Brexit can be carried out a number of ways and she has chosen her way. She could have made different decisions but she didn't. She could have chosen to reach out across the house early in the negotiation process but she didn't. She should take responsibility for those choices.

    I have to say that on this particular aspect I think the EU is in the wrong for a number of reasons. It removes our right to unilaterally leave the Customs Union - that is a direct attack on the sovereignty of a nation. Nominally it is there to ensure the Good Friday Agreement is upheld. Either the Good Friday Agreement has legal weight or it doesn't - in it's own right.
    I think your missing the point here, if there was a way to avoid a hard border in Ireland without a customs union we wouldn't have a problem. There isn't a way and so we have a problem. The backstop is a customs union and so that is the way round it. We have language in there to supposedly make it temporary but in reality its not temporary unless some time in the future someone can solve the border issue.

    The whole deal is a fudge as May is trying to say she is delivering a deal without a customs union when in fact she is not !

    Switzerland is not really comparable, for a start is in the shengen area and so so has accepted free movement of people as part of the trade deal to get access to the single market . It is not in a customs union with the EU it has a free trade deal and i would bet although you as an individual can cross the border, try to drive a lorry over it and you will see what controls are in place.

    We do have the option and always did have the option of trying to strike up a looser free trade deal with the EU... but we have given our assurances to both the republic and northern Ireland through the good Friday agreement that we would not go back to putting a hard border in place between the countries, so to do so we would have to go back against those assurance and break the good Friday agreement.

    That is a choice May could also have made, admittedly it would be a terrible choice.

    May has a major problem in that she has pretty much as good as made promises to three different sets if people and those promises contradict each other and they are not deliverable together.

    She promised her party that she would deliver a brexit with out a customs union and exiting the single market, she has promised Ireland that there will be no hard border put in place post brexit, and she promised the DUP that there would be no regulatory difference between northern Ireland and the UK.

    They are just not deliverable together.

    Also i think you put to little weight on the good Friday agreement and the historical issues at the border between the north and republic or Ireland.
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    Re: No Deal

    I really dont understand how you can say this
    Tuesday's processes were a parliamentary vote. While I agree that getting to that point was largely the fault of a lack of leadership from May, the failure to pass anything meaningful on Tuesday belonged to parliament. It's a demonstration of what happens when parliament collectively fails to work together.

    That's the problem - there is no majority in the house for anything and nobody want to compromise. Not for May's deal, not for no deal, not for abandoning Brexit and not for a second referendum. Representative democracy is all well and good but it fails when the representatives are pathologically unable to practice consensus politics.

    if there was a way to avoid a hard border in Ireland without a customs union we wouldn't have a problem. There isn't a way and so we have a problem.
    I disagree and so do a great many parties. Sajid Javid (who admittedly has some skin in the game but campaigned as a remainer and continues to pursue a soft option) quotes Border Force as saying they believe it's achievable. Full Fact give a pretty nuanced response that basically boils down to it not being needed for people and services but some sort of check for goods would be needed - which is exactly what I've been saying above. Even Barnier has said that it could be achieved in the face of a crash out - although he was admittedly hedging and he still refuses to detail what "hard" really means.

    The Irish border question isn't so controversial because it's impossible to achieve, it's controversial because it's highly political and convenient for so many players in the game for it to remain unresolved. The EU don't want a resolution because it forces us into a backstop (which in turn either keeps us permanently in the customs union or can be used to make demands of us as and when we come to leave). Remainers don't want it resolved because they see it as a tool to prevent Brexit from happening at all. May's followers don't want it resolved because they can use it as a threat to push remainers into supporting her deal. The only people who it's not particularly convenient for are the hard core leavers and they just don't care.

    try to drive a lorry over it
    I've gone over it in a bus and didn't see any infrastructure at all. The infrastructure only exists on the motor ways and only because that's more convenient than policing the bulk goods after they've crossed the border - but goods can and do cross via the back roads all the time. The checking of import/export licenses etc is easier at the border but it's certainly not the only way of doing it.
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