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Thread: No Deal

  1. #641
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    I suspect this is the last one we're getting.
    While it would be great if that were the case, and i know Macron is being awkward but they would give us another if it was required. The EU do not want to be responsible for No Deal, they dont want to keep extending also but they will if they have to.


    Anyway, we beat the All Blacks so who cares about Brexit.
    Amen to that FD, they should just send in Eddie Jones to sort it all out
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  2. #642
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    Re: No Deal

    Put them on The Apprentice so that Lord Sugar can tell them all that 'you're fired'!
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  3. #643
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    Re: No Deal

    Hibernation has come early this year - starts now and ends Friday 13 December.
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  4. #644
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    Re: No Deal

    So, how are you folks handicapping the upcoming election? I'm not over there (thankfully, as we have enough problems of our own), but I was leaning towards the idea that the Tories would win a majority, if only a thin one. However, it sounds like Labour is running kind of hot, at the moment, and might have some momentum in places the Tories have to win.

    What's the worst possible outcome? A minority Tory victory, too impotent to do anything other than flounder? Corbyn as PM? I'm not counting unrealistic outcomes, such as Farage as PM.
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  5. #645
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    Re: No Deal

    how are you folks handicapping the upcoming election?
    We don't need to. They're making a decent shot at themselves. The Labour Deputy Leader has resigned. 2 former Labour ministers and the Jewish community are asking everyone to vote Tory. A prospective Tory MP has stood down after being criticised for a few years ago advising women to 'keep their knickers on'. The Tory Welsh minister has resigned but will still stand to become an MP. Farrage is showing signs of loosing the plot by fielding a Brexit candidate in practically every constituency as the EU agreement 'isn't really Brexit at all'....

    and August is supposed to be the 'stupid news' month. Ahhhhhh......
    Last edited by 2kaud; Nov 8th, 2019 at 11:50 AM.
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  6. #646
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    Re: No Deal

    advising women to 'keep their knickers on'
    He actually told rape victims to keep their knickers on. That's kinda an important nuance.

    You're right, though, both sides are just imploding.

    My personal prediction hasn't changed much: hung parliament but Tories holding a substantial lead over a second place Labour leading to a Tory/Brexit coalition. That said the remain side are doing a better job of building a pre-election alliance but Labour are refusing to join it or come out as a remain party. I think that continuing lack of clarity from Labour is what's going to sink the remain side's chances.

    I'm going to say something that's surprised me: I've stopped caring. I'm exhausted and I no longer have any faith in anyone on any side. I honestly don't have any idea which way I'm going to vote. I'm even considering voting Tory at the next election because I see that as the only way this is ever getting resolved. I don't see a pure remain side winning and I think another referendum is a bloody stupid idea. I wouldn't just be holding my nose when I did it, I'd have to take along a gas mask. I hate everything the Tories stand for and I've been a life long Liberal. So actually, I'll probably just vote Lib Dem in the end even though I think it'll just be vote for another 5 years of chaos.
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  7. #647
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    Re: No Deal

    IMO at this election there are 2 choices. If you want the UK to remain in the EU and ignore the referendum result, then you vote for whichever remain candidate is standing in your constituency. If you want to exit/fulfil the referendum result then you vote Tory. Simples.
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  8. #648
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    Re: No Deal

    "you vote for whichever remain candidate is standing in your constituency"
    The question is, do you include Labour in that description. If you do you're not really voting for remain, you're voting for Labour to go back to Europe to negotiate another deal which they will then, presumably, campaign against in another referendum... I... just... . If you don't include Labour then your voting for SNP, Green, Plaid or Lib Dem and I just can't see any of them being front runners.
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  9. #649
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    Re: No Deal

    do you include Labour in that description
    I exclude Labour under their current leadership. If BJ isn't going to be PM then I would rather have Jo Swinson than Jeremy Corbyn.
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  10. #650
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    Re: No Deal

    I kind of feel like Corbyn is driving things, albeit not deliberately. All sides will have their core people, and those people will stick with them. For everyone else, they can look at the Tories, and if they don't like what they see...they look at Labor, see Corbyn, and realize that the Tories may not be so bad.

    What would the race look like if there wasn't such a dreadfully polarizing figure at the head of Labor? It seems to me that Labor could win outright, partly as a protest vote against BJ, except that people fear that Corbyn could be like taking poison to cure a cold.
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  11. #651
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    Re: No Deal

    they can look at the Tories, and if they don't like what they see...they look at Labor, see Corbyn, and realize that the Tories may not be so bad.
    Yeah that's pretty accurate. I actually voted Corbyn at the last election because I felt he was being treated badly by the press and his own party and wanted to see what he could do for the left if he was given some support but he's completely wasted it. Failing to take a position on Brexit, failing to engage with the accusations of anti-Semitism in the party, surrounding himself with a clique of socialist ideologues and driving anyone who dissents out of the party... I'm afraid his tenure looks disastrous for the party to me.
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  12. #652
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    Re: No Deal

    My personal prediction hasn't changed much: hung parliament but Tories holding a substantial lead over a second place Labour leading to a Tory/Brexit coalition.
    I agree that the Tories are likely to be the largest party, but i am still not convinced that they will have a majority even with Brexit party seats. It will be almost certainly be a hung or split parliament though as to where the majority lies i think is up in the air. The Tories will almost certainly lose most of the Scottish seats and wont be able to rely on DUP seats this time to form a government, so they have to take seats off Labour and a significant amount of seats.

    I think we are still to early in the election cycle to confidently make any predictions and even when we get near the vote, predictions at the last few election have been way off so i am not sure they are worth anything.

    The question is, do you include Labour in that description. If you do you're not really voting for remain, you're voting for Labour to go back to Europe to negotiate
    When it comes down to it once the votes are counted if for example there was a majority between Labour, Lib dem & SNP votes, its quite possible that the Lib Dems & SNP demand the revoke of article 50 in order to support a Corbyn government, or maybe they find some other compromise but Labour wont just be able to to exactly what they want they will have to negotiate in some form.

    This is also what would make any Tory / Brexit government dangerous as if Farage was to get enough votes to prop up a Tory government then what could he demand? it would most certainly make a no deal brexit more likely.

    All parties have there red lines while they are campaigning but once the votes are in and they have the reality of the prize of government in front of them positions become more malleable.

    I actually voted Corbyn at the last election ... I'm afraid his tenure looks disastrous for the party to me.
    Me too and so i understand you pain, Corbyn is not a good leader but i would still take him over Boris or Farage at the drop of a hat.

    One thing to remember is the only route to power for Corbyn is being propped up by the Lib Dems & the SNP and both those parties would be able to make significant policy demands.

    So actually, I'll probably just vote Lib Dem in the end even though I think it'll just be vote for another 5 years of chaos.
    Whoever wins if they have a majority will be able to enact something, it may not be fully clear what that something is but it wont be another 5 years of messing about unless nobody has a majority.
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  13. #653
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    Re: No Deal

    as to where the majority lies i think is up in the air.
    Don't forget that you don't need a majority to form a government. Whichever individual party has the most seats gets the first crack at it and can form a minority government if they want. Of course, that would be the worst possible outcome but also probably the most likely IMO. If Boris ends up being a minority front runner I can't see him standing aside for a remain alliance and we'll be right back to where we are now with a neutered government and an opposition that doesn't want another election because they know they can't actually win it. God it's depressing.


    Corbyn is not a good leader but i would still take him over Boris or Farage at the drop of a hat.
    I'd take him over Farage, certainly. Corbyn v Boris is a no score draw for me.
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  14. #654
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    Re: No Deal

    Don't forget that you don't need a majority to form a government. Whichever individual party has the most seats gets the first crack at it and can form a minority government if they want.
    It was my understanding that to form a minority Government, a Government must be able to command a majority in the House of Commons on votes of confidence and supply. If they cannot, the Prime Minister must ask the monarch to invite someone else to form a government.

    I'd take him over Farage, certainly. Corbyn v Boris is a no score draw for me.
    I think your being to kind to Boris there, i dont see as any different to Farage really he just has a thin veneer of bluster on top.
    Last edited by NeedSomeAnswers; Nov 13th, 2019 at 04:44 AM.
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  15. #655
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    I assume the DUP will not join the Tories, this time around, since Boris stuck it to them in his negotiations with the EU, but I could be wrong about that. Going from an abused and mostly ignored fringe of the government to being a totally ignored minority party is still a step down. They might grumble and grouse and go along just to have SOME influence.
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  16. #656
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    Re: No Deal

    I assume the DUP will not join the Tories, this time around
    No they wont as things stand, the deal he negotiated is basically the opposite of what they want and unless he agreed to change the deal they wont back him. It is of course possible that Boris could change his deal again if he needed them.

    Also its possible that the DUP will lose some seats in this next election which will give them less bargaining power.
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  17. #657
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    Re: No Deal

    It was my understanding that to form a minority Government, a Government must be able to command a majority in the House of Commons on votes of confidence and supply. If they cannot, the Prime Minister must ask the monarch to invite someone else to form a government.
    It used to be. I think this has changed under the Fixed Term Act? Loosing a Queen's Speech or a Budget vote now doesn't automatically lead to a new Government. BJ is PM until he isn't. He has to advise the Queen as to whom should be the next PM. If the Tories are the largest party - even without a majority - he'll almost certainly say that he should continue with a minority government. IMO only if Labour become the largest party will BJ advise the Queen to make JC PM.
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    Re: No Deal

    It used to be. I think this has changed under the Fixed Term Act? Loosing a Queen's Speech or a Budget vote now doesn't automatically lead to a new Government. BJ is PM until he isn't.
    Having looked this up it seems pretty clear that it is still the case - here are a couple of links but also here are the pertinent paragraphs

    https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/...ng-parliament/

    It is usual for the party with the most seats to be asked to form a Government because they are most likely to have a majority.

    A Government must be able to command a majority in the House of Commons on votes of confidence and supply. This majority can be all of one party, or include support from other political parties even if there is no formal coalition arrangement. If they cannot, the Prime Minister must ask the monarch to invite someone else to form a government.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...ent-explained/

    The Cabinet Manual also says that an incumbent government is expected to resign if it becomes clear that it is unlikely to be able to command that confidence and there is a clear alternative.
    So basically the Tories need to either have a majority or a majority on the basis of confidence and supply, if they cannot and it is clear that other parties can form a government either by majority coalition or by confidence and supply then Boris would be expected to resign and allow the opposition to from a new government.

    If Nobody can get a majority then Boris remains PM and can attempt to govern as a minority government.
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    Re: No Deal

    No score draw.

    I actually think JC came off a little better than BJ. He was more measured and the way BJ brought everything back to Brexit started to make him look a bit ridiculous. I think BJ did better when Brexit was the issue under debate but let himself down when the discussion was supposed to have moved onto other things.
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    Re: No Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post
    No score draw.

    I actually think JC came off a little better than BJ. He was more measured and the way BJ brought everything back to Brexit started to make him look a bit ridiculous. I think BJ did better when Brexit was the issue under debate but let himself down when the discussion was supposed to have moved onto other things.
    The problem BJ has is he has pinned his premiership on getting Brexit done, it is the only thing he has made any real claims about (not that he has stuck to his own deadlines or actually been honest in his claims) and everything else is framed in relationship to Brexit.

    Unfortunately BJ seems to either be unaware of the details to his own deal (quite possible) or he is wilfully lying about his deal (probably even more likely) so we really don't know exactly what we are going to get. HE has refused to do any economic impact assessments, refused to release reports on Russian interference, effectively stopped any scrutiny by proroguing parliament then by calling a general election. As a nation we really don't know what we are getting other than it appears to be worse than TM's deal which BJ wouldn't vote for because it was so bad for the country.

  21. #661
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    Re: No Deal

    or he is wilfully lying about his deal
    Yeah that, BJ has a long history of just making stuff up so much so that Peter Obourne a leading conservative journalist has even created a website about

    https://boris-johnson-lies.com/mission-statement
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  22. #662
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    Re: No Deal

    He learned from a master.
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  23. #663
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    Re: No Deal

    Don't you folks have an election this week?
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    Re: No Deal

    Yep - Thursday. This will give BJ a commanding majority, a hung Parliament and a Corbyn led coalition government. ???
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    Re: No Deal

    My prediction is still a hung parliament.

    I think Boris has a shot at a majority but it's a slim one. And that whole bit with refusing to look at the photo of the kid in hospital feels like it's made it MUCH slimmer.

    Labour under Corbyn just feel like they're getting more and more extreme by the day. Angela Rayner, in particular, is becoming increasingly unpleasant and aggressive to anyone who disagrees with their hardcore line.

    And Swanson, frankly, has all the leadership capabilities of... well... Corbyn.
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    Re: No Deal

    Angela Rayner, in particular, is becoming increasingly unpleasant and aggressive to anyone who disagrees with their hardcore line.
    Angela Rayner is a true believer, and yeah a not particularly sympathetic character but she is not at all important in this election, only Boris and Corbyn & Swinson really seem to matter and maybe Nicola Sturgeon in Scotland.

    Its been interesting actually how the parties have avoided putting there most controversial/annoying ministers anywhere near a TV screen, and in Boris's case bar the 2 leaders debates he has been pretty absent from TV too.

    My prediction is still a hung parliament.
    I agree, it still possible Boris could still get a slim majority but a hung parliament feels more likely.

    A hung parliament will likely return a minority government one way or another so which side its hung on ahem will be important
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    Re: No Deal

    but she is not at all important in this election
    Maybe, but her face feels like its practically everywhere... all the time. And I'm not sure I've seen it do anything other than scowl. I mean, maybe she sneers once in a while, I'll give her that. I think one of the biggest image problems Corbyn's labour party has is the perception that they're idealist, humourless zealots and she absolutely personifies that to me.

    Its been interesting actually how the parties have avoided putting there most controversial/annoying ministers anywhere near a TV screen
    True dat. Mind you, they both seem to have pretty deep pools of thoroughly unpleasant alternatives to trot out..

    ahem
    I saw what you did there... and gagged a little.
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    Re: No Deal

    Am I right in believing that, in a fundamental Brexit sense, this doesn't really matter?

    It seems like the most promising outcome, from a Bexit perspective, would be a large win by the Tories, but that would only mean that BJ would be able to push through his deal, which seems to have time-bombs in it that will go off periodically over the next few years and precipitate further Bexit crises. The next most promising would be a win by the Lib Dems and a withdrawal of Article 50, which would cause some real fury in the population that would play out over the next few years. The third most promising is pretty nearly everything else, which would result in chaos from Friday morning until the heat death of the universe.
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  29. #669
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    Re: No Deal

    The polls seem to be suggesting a narrowing of the gap between Labour and the Tories - which is suggesting again a hung Parliament. Ahhhhh. IMO the 'undeciders' are starting to decide and they're looking for reasons to vote for a party - more going to Labour than the Tories. These late deciders will probably determine the result in about a dozen seats. What the polls don't seem to indicate (??) is what makes an 'undecider' decide to vote for a party - or not to vote at all. We seem to have a lot of info about what voters in general think are priority areas, who's got best policies on xyz etc but not re the 'undeciders'. Isn't this a big problem with relying upon the polls to predict what is going to happen on Thursday?
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    Re: No Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker View Post
    Am I right in believing that, in a fundamental Brexit sense, this doesn't really matter?

    It seems like the most promising outcome, from a Bexit perspective, would be a large win by the Tories, but that would only mean that BJ would be able to push through his deal, which seems to have time-bombs in it that will go off periodically over the next few years and precipitate further Bexit crises. The next most promising would be a win by the Lib Dems and a withdrawal of Article 50, which would cause some real fury in the population that would play out over the next few years. The third most promising is pretty nearly everything else, which would result in chaos from Friday morning until the heat death of the universe.
    Anything except a decent working majority for the Tories will cause chaos on Friday!
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  31. #671
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    Re: No Deal

    This election is increasingly reminding me of the Frankie Goes To Hollywood classic song 'Two Tribes'
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  32. #672
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    Re: No Deal

    Anything except a decent working majority for the Tories will cause chaos on Friday!
    I'm inclined to agree. I honestly think that the only way this is ever ending is if the Tories get to railroad a Brexit through. But, yes, there are still plenty of time bombs waiting to go off over the next few years. Nobody should be talking about sunlit uplands.

    A Lib Dem win 1. just isn't going to happen and 2. wouldn't mean an end to Brexit. The backlash if A50 gets revoked without even a second referendum will be huge.

    And I don't buy the labour plan for a second referendum either. By the very act of holding it you are declaring that referenda do not need to be respected... so it won't be.
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    Re: No Deal

    A long time back in this thread, I predicted that you'd be crashing out with a No Deal. I thought that an outlandish reach of a prediction at the time. Now, I'm not sure that wouldn't be better than what is actually going to happen. Even a No Deal, at this point, will be worse than a No Deal would have been several months back before all the bickering and infighting got to this point. At that time, it would have been a straight up train wreck. Everybody would be shaken, but they'd be able to pick up the pieces and carry on. Now, it seems like every option is going to be a train wreck, but the wreck of a train carrying landmines, such that everybody will be scared to try to pick up the pieces, not knowing what might be under them.
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  34. #674
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Anything except a decent working majority for the Tories will cause chaos on Friday!
    I'm inclined to agree. I honestly think that the only way this is ever ending is if the Tories get to railroad a Brexit through.
    And this is where i fundamentally disagree, firstly this is a democratic election one called by the Tories, almost half the population is not going to like the outcome whatever happens but this idea that there will be chaos if one side does not get its way is just propaganda which ever side says it.

    We are not going to see scenes like the Hong Kong protests over here people will respect an election result, they might not like it and it wont stop people complaining but this idea of chaos on the streets is just nonsense.

    A Lib Dem win 1. just isn't going to happen and 2. wouldn't mean an end to Brexit. The backlash if A50 gets revoked without even a second referendum will be huge.
    Yeah the Lib Dem's cant win outright, so there solution wont happen

    And I don't buy the labour plan for a second referendum either. By the very act of holding it you are declaring that referenda do not need to be respected... so it won't be.
    This i just disagree with, we are having a general election which is fundamentally democratic people are making a choice the idea that it could somehow that choice could not be respected is not going to happen.

    I know there is a slim chance of a hung parliament in which the numbers again mean there is no clear path for brexit but that chance is very small this time. Those on the right that were against brexit have been purged from the party so if the conservative get a majority they will be able to enact Brexit.

    In Labour nearly all of those who voted consistently for brexit have either already stood down at this election, have left the party or are predicted to lose there seat, so those 20 MP's will likely reduce to 1 or 2. So if Labour get into power they will be able to hold a second referendum and they will be able to enact the result.

    The only way neither of these things happen is if we land on that very small area where no-one has a majority even in confidence and supply

    The last time we had riots in this country we had unrest amongst young people in fundamentally poor areas and these people had much less to lose, many got arrested and went to Jail and we haven't seen anything like that since.

    Can you really see working people with jobs and families doing the same thing and risking there jobs, lives and reputations ? as if you are then i call that for what it is BS.
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  35. #675
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    Re: No Deal

    Now, it seems like every option is going to be a train wreck
    Feels are heightened and everything is still on the line, also this issue is very polarising so both sides see the each others position as the end of the end of the World.

    One side or the other maybe right but we dont have history yet to tell us that just opinions and facts which are easy to ignore when not backup up by actual outcomes.
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  36. #676
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    Re: No Deal

    Well, our predictions of a hung parliament turned out to be wrong. I can't say I'm that surprised by a Tory victory but I am surprised by the depth. I thought they could perhaps sneak through but only by a seat or two.

    We are not going to see scenes like the Hong Kong protests
    I didn't mean to imply riots but the danger of massive political disengagement was real and the backlash was likely to be a real swing to the extreme right (not full blown Nazi Right, more grubby entitled Farage Right). Still, I guess that's academic now.

    More of a risk now feels like the Left swinging more to the extreme. Corbyns followers are out in droves already declaring "it wasn't Corbyn's fault, It was Brexit". In reality, it was both. And if they fix one without the other, Labour's going to become increasingly irrelevant. Welcome back to the 80s.
    Last edited by FunkyDexter; Dec 13th, 2019 at 03:57 AM.
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  37. #677
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    Re: No Deal

    Although I applaud the result, I feel sorry for Jo Swinson. She's only been leader for 5 months - and now she's lost her seat.
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  38. #678
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    Re: No Deal

    Honestly, I don't think she was ready for the role. Reckon Ed Davy will be next and he'll probably do a better job.

    Getting someone young in always looks good on paper but young tends to mean inexperienced and politics is a bear pit.
    Last edited by FunkyDexter; Dec 13th, 2019 at 06:12 AM.
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  39. #679
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    Re: No Deal

    So, the BJ Brexit deal can now be gotten through, followed by a hard Brexit next fall?
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  40. #680
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    Re: No Deal

    I don't think it will be next fall. He's currently citing the end on January.

    Personally I think he'd do well taking a bit more time and doing a slightly more controlled Brexit but I'm not sure that would be politically expedient.
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