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Thread: No Deal

  1. #721
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    Re: No Deal

    The requirement that we will abide by current EU standards without reciprocation where our standards exceed theirs
    The requirement that we will abide by not just current EU standards but also by any future standards they may choose to set
    Well that not exactly true, the finer detail is that if we choose to go with lower standards or not match their standards over time then they have the right to introduce tariffs on our goods entering their marketplace. The choice is ours to make but if we do choose lower standards then the EU is deciding it is going to protect its markets

    The reciprocation argument I don't get either, they are the bigger trading block, their market is far bigger than ours.

    Do you think when we do a trade agreement with the US or say China we get to dictate terms? or as the bigger market do they have the advantage?
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    Re: No Deal

    Ah, so you feel they should morally offer us a trade deal that is acceptable to our government? why?
    I haven't said they should. What I've said is that if you enter a trade negotiation with a set of terms that would not be acceptable to any sovereign nation on the planet then you are not negotiating that trade agreement in good faith.

    A somewhat trite metaphor: If I offer you a tenner for your house, would you feel that my offer was being made in good faith? You have the absolute right not to sell your house to me and the EU have the absolute right not to trade with us, that's not at issue. But for me to claim it was a serious offer or for the EU to claim that they have entered into a good faith negotiation with us with a genuine intention of achieving a trade deal is demonstrably false.

    Neither side has thus far engaged in these negotiations in good faith. Both have simply set terms for the other that they knew would be unacceptable and then refused to move.
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  3. #723
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    Re: No Deal

    I think the UK will have an easier time negotiating a trade deal with the US, now. At least they will find a reliable partner to negotiate with. I'm inclined to say that Biden will be wanting to get such a deal done, as well. He was opposed to Brexit, but not to Britain.
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  4. #724
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    Re: No Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post
    I haven't said they should. What I've said is that if you enter a trade negotiation with a set of terms that would not be acceptable to any sovereign nation on the planet then you are not negotiating that trade agreement in good faith.
    The EU has at each point reacted to the UK's position. We could have asked for a Customs Union for instance the so-called Norway Option. We have chosen the hardest of Brexit positions and that has determined the direction of negotiations.

    A somewhat trite metaphor: If I offer you a tenner for your house, would you feel that my offer was being made in good faith? You have the absolute right not to sell your house to me and the EU have the absolute right not to trade with us, that's not at issue. But for me to claim it was a serious offer or for the EU to claim that they have entered into a good faith negotiation with us with a genuine intention of achieving a trade deal is demonstrably false.
    I think a better analogy FD would be an acrimonious divorce as this process is much more like a divorce than a sale, and if you have ever seen anyone go through a divorce it is often a painful bitter process were both sides want to give the other side as little as possible. It tends to go one of 2 ways, either they find some way to make compromises they don't want to make, or they fight it out in court until there is nothing left but fees for the lawyers.

    The UK is like the adulterous husband, we are going to get the worst side of this divorce process, but we are bitterly and blindly fighting to the end.

    Neither side has thus far engaged in these negotiations in good faith. Both have simply set terms for the other that they knew would be unacceptable and then refused to move.
    I just don't see it like that FD, do I despair at our negotiating tactics? yes, but I don't think we have acted in bad faith in our negotiations. The same with the EU both sides are trying to defend their interests. I just feel we have negotiated badly and for the wrong things. Why the hell are we arguing over Fish which is only a tiny part of our economy rather than Services which is something like 40% of our economy and they are not even included in the deal being negotiated?

    The main difference between the sides is we are delusional in thinking that we have the same clout as the EU and our trade is worth the same as there's.

    The only real act of bad faith I have seen is our attempt to break a legal agreement we had only signed about 8 months earlier.
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  5. #725
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    Re: No Deal

    I was reading last evening that the fish issue is just a red herring. The real issue is that the EU doesn't want the UK to be able to undercut them on other rules, such as environmental, trade regulation, and so forth. Without that, the UK could make their rules far more friendly and suck entire industries out of the EU. The same thing happens in the US with states. All credit cards come out of South Dakota, not because their a great financial hub, but because they have the weakest fiscal oversight and usury laws to comply with. Delaware is the state to create a shell company, too, for similar reasons. The EU doesn't want the UK to be too much like that.

    Of course, to yield on that point, the UK would have to tacitly yield on the core issue of sovereignty. I really don't see how much compromise is really possible on that issue.
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    Re: No Deal

    I was reading last evening that the fish issue is just a red herring. The real issue is that the EU doesn't want the UK to be able to undercut them on other rules
    Yes and No.

    The fish shouldn't be an issue but it is. For UK Brexiteers it's kind of a patriotism thing. Our fishing industry got hammered by EU rules so not being able to exclude EU vessels from our waters becomes a touchy point. I'm not clear on why it's important to the EU and I suspect it's mainly a bargaining chip for other concessions. Macron made a big deal of it as part of his campaign for re-election so the French, in particular, want to fight for it - though I get the impression the other EU nations are less bothered.

    The EU not wanting the UK to undercut them is referred to as the "level playing field". I think that's a far more crucial issue.
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  7. #727
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    Re: No Deal

    I was reading last evening that the fish issue is just a red herring. The real issue is that the EU doesn't want the UK to be able to undercut them on other rules, such as environmental, trade regulation, and so forth.
    Yes and No.

    The fish shouldn't be an issue but it is. For UK Brexiteers it's kind of a patriotism thing. Our fishing industry got hammered by EU rules so not being able to exclude EU vessels from our waters becomes a touchy point. I'm not clear on why it's important to the EU
    Yeah, it's a bit of a strange one, fishing shouldn't be that important to us, it's a tiny part of our economy but as FD said it becomes a sort of sore point with Brexiteers taking back control of our waters seems to resonate.

    What funny is that a large part of our Fishing industry (over 25%) is selling shellfish (Lobsters, Shrimp etc) into the European market as we don't eat nearly as much in the UK as is eaten in parts of Europe. A No-Deal Brexit which some advocate would massively hit that market as there would be tariffs on our Shellfish making them highly uncompetitive and likely putting many of those who specialise in Shellfish out of business.

    Those types of details seem to pass people by for the headlines of getting back control of our fish!

    For the EU Fishing is politically and to a lesser extent economically important to a few countries including France & the Netherlands and as each country has a veto over the deal these countries that have a bigger fishing interest can and have forced Fishing fairly high up on the priority list.

    It does seem though that each side has made some effort to tie up fishing and the level playing field issues together as a negotiating position. The UK seems to want to use Fishing access as a tool to loosen the level playing field rules the EU wants to impose and vice versa.

    Of course, to yield on that point, the UK would have to tacitly yield on the core issue of sovereignty.
    Not necessarily, and that is likely why each side is still talking. The main problems are about what the EU views as mechanisms to protect their market, while the UK views them as punishments for changing standards. Both sides really should be able to a deal hear it's in both side interests but there is a lack of trust and at least on the UK side it wants visible concessions from the EU which it can sell back to the brexiteers.

    It's quite possible they could do a deal and then just declare that the deal makes us a Sovereign nation, as in actuality what does Sovereign really mean? who can pin it down to specifics? It's a slippery term which politicians will be able to finesse if they so choose.

    I am still 50/50 on the likelihood of a deal being agreed upon though, you wonder if the EU closing its borders to UK passengers and freight today due to the virus will concentrate some minds
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  8. #728
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    Re: No Deal

    Yeah, they should be open to ALL exports.

    I don't believe a deal will be done. It's too late in the game. If something could be agreed, it would have been, but by now it can't get ratified by the EU in time. Therefore, it may well be the plan to let it lapse, so that everybody understands the pain points in reality rather than in theory. That will likely sharpen minds pretty effectively. After that, a deal is still possible, it would just be like any other negotiation with anybody else. It's kind of "you never know what you had till it's gone" approach to negotiation.
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    Re: No Deal

    I wasn't paying attention to the Brexit situation until I started paying attention to this thread. It seemed that there wasn't any major overall benefit for the UK no matter how it exited the EU. So I couldn't understand how this all got started. But today when NSA started talking about Sovereignty and it made sense.

    The same thing happens here when people start throwing the term "Freedom" around. Masks violate my freedom, owning 27 assault rifles is part of my freedom or politicians use it as a selling point, "we need to do abc to protect our freedom". Freedom and sovereignty are myths. Countries are built on laws that must be followed. Sovereignty may be possible if all the people of the country only desire is food and shelter. Sovereignty is lost as soon as you involve and outside party. Sure you have the right to choose who and how you deal with other nations but all deals make you dependent.

  10. #730
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    Re: No Deal

    I don't believe a deal will be done. It's too late in the game. If something could be agreed, it would have been, but by now it can't get ratified by the EU in time.
    In a usual negotiation, I would completely agree but deadlines have been missed so consistently it feels like they hardly matter with Brexit.

    If No Deal was definite you would expect the negotiations to have stopped and they haven't in fact we keep hearing of new minor concessions by one side or the other. I am not confident in a deal but I am not sure it can be ruled out yet.

    I wasn't paying attention to the Brexit situation until I started paying attention to this thread. It seemed that there wasn't any major overall benefit for the UK no matter how it exited the EU. So I couldn't understand how this all got started. But today when NSA started talking about Sovereignty and it made sense.

    The same thing happens here when people start throwing the term "Freedom" around. Masks violate my freedom, owning 27 assault rifles is part of my freedom or politicians use it as a selling point, "we need to do abc to protect our freedom". Freedom and sovereignty are myths
    Agreed, although the other big issue in Brexit is another issue you probably familiar with and that's immigration. The EU allows freedom of movement among its member states which means anyone from any EU country can just go and move to another and live and work there no visa requirements or anything.

    This has led in the UK to some anti-immigration feeling particularly against the Polish but also against immigrants generally particularly in small towns where there have been job losses as industry changed, and it's has been very easy to blame immigrants for taking jobs and taking up local housing and the like.
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  11. #731
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    Re: No Deal

    deadlines have been missed so consistently it feels like they hardly matter with Brexit.
    True dat. My prediction is a last minute fudge in which we just carry in with the status quo while further negotiations are undertaken. There'll be an end point eventually but I don't believe this will be it.
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    Re: No Deal

    True dat. My prediction is a last minute fudge in which we just carry in with the status quo while further negotiations are undertaken. There'll be an end point eventually but I don't believe this will be it.
    Yep, Brexit deadlines are like the snooze button on my alarm clock, just a suggestion as to when I should get up which I repeatedly ignore until I can't anymore.

    Boris and co seem pretty adamant that they will not extend the transition, but he does change his mind a lot so who knows.
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    Re: No Deal

    Boris and co seem pretty adamant that they will not extend the transition
    Oh, they won't extend. They'll simply agree a deal with a fixed review date where we carry on with the exact same terms as we currently have. It absolutely WILL NOT be an extension though.
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    Re: No Deal

    Yeah, I can see that happening, but it would be better if they didn't. Let the hard exit sink in a bit and people will have a better understanding of what it is they MUST change, and not just what they might like to change.
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    Re: No Deal

    This has led in the UK to some anti-immigration feeling particularly against the Polish but also against immigrants generally particularly in small towns where there have been job losses as industry changed, and it's has been very easy to blame immigrants for taking jobs and taking up local housing and the like.
    Very familiar with that type of rhetoric. I live in California and we have a large immigrant population. I guess people feel better if they have someone to blame for their problems.

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    Re: No Deal

    Well, apparently they've reached a deal but it hasn't been formally announced yet. Should be revealed later today. I'm curious to see what's finally been arrived at.
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    Re: No Deal

    Announcing it afternoon Christmas Eve smells fishy.
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    Re: No Deal

    I actually haven't had a chance to look at the content (weirdly busy few days) but from the lack of hyperbole coming from the press I'm guessing it ended up being at least reasonable to both sides.
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    Re: No Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post
    I actually haven't had a chance to look at the content (weirdly busy few days) but from the lack of hyperbole coming from the press I'm guessing it ended up being at least reasonable to both sides.
    Boris seems to have given away a fair bit of the fishing industry, pretty much nothing in the agreement for the UK service industry (which is a huge part of the UK economy), given up on the Erasmus scheme (despite promising he wouldn't), lots of rights that UK citizens had are going away, cost the UK a fortune, can't see any 350 million for the NHS either. Does mean we are no longer part of the EU tax avoidance regulations though - so looks like there are benefits for some people :/

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    Re: No Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by wes4dbt View Post
    Very familiar with that type of rhetoric. I live in California and we have a large immigrant population. I guess people feel better if they have someone to blame for their problems.
    Very familiar with this type of rhetoric. Those who benefit from oppression always justify it to others and actually feel they have the moral high ground.

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    Re: No Deal

    Organized labor has begun turning the tide against oppressors in recent years, gradually embracing illegal immigrants. As they bring them into the fold they undermine the efforts of the elite to depress compensation and quality of life. This has even begun to occur in California, the slavery capital, of late.

  22. #742
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    Re: No Deal

    Well, apparently they've reached a deal but it hasn't been formally announced yet. Should be revealed later today. I'm curious to see what's finally been arrived at.
    I actually haven't had a chance to look at the content (weirdly busy few days) but from the lack of hyperbole coming from the press I'm guessing it ended up being at least reasonable to both sides.
    So yes we have a deal, I have not read the deal yet, but I have heard some of the analysis of it but by all accounts, it's as crap a deal as expected.

    Fishing as we all thought was not really much of an issue for us, more a negotiating tool as we gave up most of what we were asking for.

    We seem to have negotiated a deal which on the surface gives us the ability to deviate from EU rules and regulations, but by all accounts makes it almost impossible to do so without incurring tariffs or penalties of some kind on goods entering the single market.

    It will be interesting to read a bit more of the detail, but it does not look good for us right now.
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  23. #743
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    Re: No Deal

    Here's about the best analysis I can find and it's still pretty sparse on detail.

    I don't think it's a good deal by any means but I'm not quite as down on it as NSA and FeasiblyMoist (sorry dude, your name is irresistible).

    I think it probably delivers a lot of what really drove most Brexiteers, namely sovereignty. We are no longer subject to the ECJ, which is BIG. We actually do now have control of our fishing rights but have effectively rented them to the EU for the next 5 years for 25% of the take - but importantly we decide what happens with them going forward. We can diverge from EU rules in the future if we choose.

    On the other hand, the cost of it is financial. If we do diverge from EU rules, we can expect to pay for it. There will be costly bureaucracy to deal with if you want to trade with Europe and some exports have just been straight up banned. Our service industries are losing their automatic right of access to the EU which will make them less competitive, particularly our financial sector. We can withdraw fishing rights from the EU but they'll tax our fish exports.


    I suspect the reason the PD, NSA and I don't like this deal is probably because we're looking at it through a financial lens and it's hard to argue that this won't leave us worse off. But I think the main driver for most Brexiteers was autonomy and this deal does deliver that... if we're willing to pay for it.
    Last edited by FunkyDexter; Jan 5th, 2021 at 05:30 AM.
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    Re: No Deal

    The reasonably wet member does have about the best name in the forum.

    I'm amazed that a deal got done at all, as I was stating that it wouldn't. In some ways, though, it sounds like a pretty fair position when it comes to trade: Stick with the rules and all is pretty well, but you can buy your way out of any particular. It's a bit of a la carte trade. Plus you get to have spiffy new passports, and even get them stamped. Can't complain too much about that!
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    Re: No Deal

    Few will sit through the entire hour, but we are entering a period of change as a planet.



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  26. #746
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    Re: No Deal

    The animals always existed. What is different now is that they can all find one another.
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  27. #747
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    Re: No Deal

    I don't think it's a good deal by any means but I'm not quite as down on it as NSA and FeasiblyMoist (sorry dude, you're name is irresistible).


    I think it probably delivers a lot of what really drove most Brexiteers, namely sovereignty. We are no longer subject to the ECJ, which is BIG.
    I don't think it does really, yes it removes the ECJ's influence but it has replaced it by a ton of joint committees, and these joint committees have the power to give remedies to either side in case of a dispute. And if a remedy cannot be found there are mechanisms for unilateral action to be taken in some circumstances.

    It gives the appearance of control it seems to me, but the same issues apply in that we want access to the single market and if we try and diverge in rules too far then that access is likely to be either limited or have tariffs applied. These choices have just been pushed down the road.

    We actually do now have control of our fishing rights but have effectively rented them to the EU for the next 5 years for 25% of the take
    Ah well, sort of we were asking for 80% of the fishing catch in our waters, in the end, we got 25% after that we have annual negotiations. Again we are pushing any decisions down the road as if we do try and diverge and take back more of our fishing catch in this deal the EU has the right to either add tariffs to any fish we try and export to the EU or even deny access completely to our fish exports. Considering that we export around 80 of the fish we catch to the EU this is a big deal and makes any changes we want to make very difficult.

    - but importantly we decide what happens with them going forward. We can diverge from EU rules in the future if we choose.
    Yes, we can but at a significant cost the more we want to diverge the bigger the cost once again pushing decisions down the road and trying to maintain much of the status quo for now.

    The reality is the same issues we had before the deal are still here baked into this deal

    I suspect the reason the PD, NSA and I don't like this deal is probably because we're looking at it through a financial lens and it's hard to argue that this won't leave us worse off. But I think the main driver for most Brexiteers was autonomy and this deal does deliver that... if we're willing to pay for it.
    Yes, exactly but I would also add that the other big problem I have is that the autonomy is somewhat illusory if the cost involved is not something you ever want to take on.

    If they had wanted to take that cost on they could have just gone for a No Deal right now but they didn't for good reason.
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  28. #748
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    Re: No Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post
    Here's about the best analysis I can find and it's still pretty sparse on detail.

    I don't think it's a good deal by any means but I'm not quite as down on it as NSA and FeasiblyMoist (sorry dude, your name is irresistible).
    I think the deal is so far removed from what was promised, not that any of what was promised was remotely achievable anyway, and so close to No Deal as to make very little difference.

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post
    I think it probably delivers a lot of what really drove most Brexiteers, namely sovereignty. We are no longer subject to the ECJ, which is BIG. We actually do now have control of our fishing rights but have effectively rented them to the EU for the next 5 years for 25% of the take - but importantly we decide what happens with them going forward. We can diverge from EU rules in the future if we choose.
    Although we are claiming we are no longer subject to the ECJ we aren't completely free of it - NI is still covered by it, the UK is still covered by the ECJ in regards to VAT laws being applied.

    Sovereignty is a big political thing but in practice it doesn't mean an awful lot, there are plenty of things we are claiming we can now do because we are sovereign which we could have done anyway. It became a political thing rather than a practical thing.

    Fishing rights seem to be another weird political issue, we pretty much prioritised them over the entire UK service industry (80% of the UKs trade) and then pretty much gave in anyway. Apparently fishing is such a small part of the economy Games Workshop contributed something like 3 or 4 times as much as the entire Fishing industry :/ - even weirder is tha fact we mainly catch fish we don't want and have now made it harder to sell them to the people who do want them.

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post
    On the other hand, the cost of it is financial. If we do diverge from EU rules, we can expect to pay for it. There will be costly bureaucracy to deal with if you want to trade with Europe and some exports have just been straight up banned. Our service industries are losing their automatic right of access to the EU which will make them less competitive, particularly our financial sector. We can withdraw fishing rights from the EU but they'll tax our fish exports.


    I suspect the reason the PD, NSA and I don't like this deal is probably because we're looking at it through a financial lens and it's hard to argue that this won't leave us worse off. But I think the main driver for most Brexiteers was autonomy and this deal does deliver that... if we're willing to pay for it.
    Personally I think the financial impact is far too high, however I am also bemused by how much harder we have made everything for ourselves. We have given up freedom of movement, the ability to live and work abroad. We have made travel in Europe harder / more expensive by being limited on the number of days and no longer getting free health cover, needing different paperwork to drive, no pet passports etc. We have left the Erasmus schemse, limited our ability to work with European security forces, and lowered our international standing. We have made it harder to trade with the EU and harder for the EU to trade with us. We have introduced so much more red tape and paperwork into systems that are needed to run smoothly on a day to day basis without any actual working systems in place.

    From a personal point the entire process has been a series of lies from PM after PM. There is virtually nothing that was promised that has been delivered and virtually no real benefit to the country.

  29. #749
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    Re: No Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by PlausiblyDamp View Post

    From a personal point the entire process has been a series of lies from PM after PM. There is virtually nothing that was promised that has been delivered and virtually no real benefit to the country.
    Not the first time that has happened. There was no solution that was both good and easy. People may have actually believed that there was, or maybe they were just lying. It doesn't really matter, as it didn't exist. There also wasn't a solution that was both good and possible. Finally, there wasn't a solution that was easy. And so, you end up with something that has the name of the thing you promised, even if what is under the hood is utterly different from what you promised.

    We don't need to go to politics for that kind of solution. Technically, that's what VB6 folks say about VB.NET, and it's what they'd say if they ever got the replacement they claim to want.
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  30. #750
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Personally I think the financial impact is far too high
    I agree but looking to my own opinion on this kinda misses the point because I'm a remainer. If you want to judge whether the deal is a success or not you really have to put yourself in the mindset of a leaver because it's their agenda it's supposed to be serving (which doesn't stop the rest of us being affected by it of course). I think your average leaver will view the deal as imperfect but acceptable.

    @NSA, I agree that the deal largely kicks the can down the road on the difficult issues but what I think you're failing to acknowledge is that the choice of how far to kick it and in which direction is now in the United Kingdom's purview. That's a fundamental shift in position from when we were in the EU and I feel that's what leaver's really voted for. It's about agency, not how that agency is actually exercised.
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  31. #751
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    I think your average leaver will view the deal as imperfect but acceptable.
    I agree that right now leave voters think that the deal is acceptable, as we have just left the EU they have the pluses and we have had no time to see any negatives.

    Wait a year and then let's see if they still see it as acceptable.

    @NSA, I agree that the deal largely kicks the can down the road on the difficult issues but what I think you're failing to acknowledge is that the choice of how far to kick it and in which direction is now in the United Kingdom's purview. That's a fundamental shift in position from when we were in the EU and I feel that's what leaver's really voted for. It's about agency, not how that agency is actually exercised.
    FD that I feel is the big problem with this deal though, the PM has promised agency through this deal but I don't think it gives agency.

    Agency or the ability to set your own rules is pointless if circumstances are such that you don't want to exercise them, and even if you try to exercise them you get trapped in layers of committees and subcommittees.
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  32. #752
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    So I see this Brexit deal worked out for all the Fishermen then, they seem absolutely delighted that our Fish are now "British Fish and all the better for it" !
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  33. #753
    Fanatic Member 2kaud's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    The fish deal was always smelly. There's no way that the EU is going to permit EU fishermen to get less fish from our waters and at the same time permit current/extra fish exports to the EU.
    All advice is offered in good faith only. You are ultimately responsible for the effects of your programs and the integrity of the machines they run on. Anything I post, code snippets, advice, etc is licensed as Public Domain https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/

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  34. #754
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Also, I see the Government are advising British companies that export into the EU, to avoid the red-tape that has been introduced because of Brexit that they should set up companies in the EU and warehouse their goods there to avoid the customs nightmare they are currently dealing with at the border.

    This means British companies essentially moving jobs out of the UK and into Europe just to be able to continue trading which shows you how much friction has been created by this trade deal and how detrimental it is going to be to British jobs.
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