Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

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Originally Posted by ChrisE

anybody considered it might be a B-Weapon that accidentally is out ?

I certainly hope not

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Some conspiracy-theorists in China consider the new coronavirus to be a biological weapon made by other countries, but the vast majority of Chinese consider it nonsense. The prevailing view is that the new coronavirus comes from wild animals.

Another thing worth paying attention to and thinking about is that the World Military Games has been held in Wuhan from October 18th to 27th, 2019(a large number of foreign athletes entered China). The first case of unknown pneumonia occurred on December 8, 2019 (the actual time of infection may be earlier).

Off topic question? How do they come up with the name of the virus when it didnt originate in a city called Corona. Shouldnt it be called Wuhan virus?

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Originally Posted by dreammanor

Some conspiracy-theorists in China consider the new coronavirus to be a biological weapon made by other countries, but the vast majority of Chinese consider it nonsense. The prevailing view is that the new coronavirus comes from wild animals.

Another thing worth paying attention to and thinking about is that the World Military Games has been held in Wuhan from October 18th to 27th, 2019(a large number of foreign athletes entered China). The first case of unknown pneumonia occurred on December 8, 2019 (the actual time of infection may be earlier).

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Having a virology institute in Wuhan may have helped start it. I agree it has been completely debunked.

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Originally Posted by RobDog888

Off topic question? How do they come up with the name of the virus when it didnt originate in a city called Corona. Shouldnt it be called Wuhan virus?

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The corona viruses are a family of viruses that resemble a crown when imaged (using whatever is necessary for imaging a virus). That's an unusual shape for a virus, so the shape gave rise to the name.

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Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker

The corona viruses are a family of viruses that resemble a crown when imaged (using whatever is necessary for imaging a virus). That's an unusual shape for a virus, so the shape gave rise to the name.

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Could have went with a Royal Virus for a crown shape. :lol:

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Originally Posted by dreammanor

Another thing worth paying attention to and thinking about is that the World Military Games has been held in Wuhan from October 18th to 27th, 2019(a large number of foreign athletes entered China). The first case of unknown pneumonia occurred on December 8, 2019 (the actual time of infection may be earlier).

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It is entirely possible that the virus came from some participant in the games. It would have gone through a few people, most likely, before it was recognized. There had to be a certain number of similar cases for people to start looking for a common, unusual, cause. Considering the gestation period, it is reasonable that a fast-spreading virus might have popped up in late October, and not reached the level where anybody noticed until December.

Still, the source is almost certainly a domestic animal. There are LOADS of viruses out there that can't currently infect humans, and are therefore unimportant to us. Once some mutation gives them the ability to infect humans....they're off and running. Something entirely novel is unlikely. Something that is a small change on something that didn't bother us is far more likely. Of course, that first transmission could have been to a participant in the games, and Wuhan may have been no more than the point of first detection, not the point of origin. Generally speaking, it doesn't matter. With so many harmless viruses out there that COULD mutate into something we care about, whether it happens here, there, or somewhere, is of relatively minor importance, in my opinion.

On the other hand, some of the more interesting diseases seem to originate in the places where organized humanity has been the longest. Africa has some of the most gruesome human pathogens, and China ought to be a bigger source than North America, where agricultural societies are pretty recent. Bugs have had thousands of years in contact with large masses of humans (agricultural societies can grow larger populations that liver more closely together) in China. In North America....well, there've been a couple hundred years, if we're generous.

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Originally Posted by RobDog888

Could have went with a Royal Virus for a crown shape. :lol:

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Not anymore. The virus would just decide to become independent and move to Canada.

Nobody moves to Canada.

I saw in the news the charter flight of the evacuated American residents in China were detoured from landing in Ontario, CA. Currently at March AFB on a secondary "quarantine". Seems people were not happy they were coming to Ontario.

Bats are considered domesticated animals?

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Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker

Not anymore. The virus would just decide to become independent and move to Canada.

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I consider that a royal insult to Meghan Markle and Prince Harry that could go viral.

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Originally Posted by dreammanor

Some conspiracy-theorists in China consider the new coronavirus to be a biological weapon made by other countries, but the vast majority of Chinese consider it nonsense. The prevailing view is that the new coronavirus comes from wild animals.

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Some conspiracy theorists here in the USA think it was a biological weapon made by the Chinese and accidentally released due to an accident or something. I guess that is what watching movies all your life does, nothing can ever be what it seems in some people's eyes, they always has to be a twist ending.

The current official number of infected in China is just over 7700. Still a nearly exponential trend. I've seen chatter that there is a backlog in testing potential cases, which is actually skewing new infected numbers down. Basically, there are infected people that aren't counted yet only because their sample is waiting in queue to be tested. Not verified, but seems plausible due to the ever increasing number of potential cases.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E..._and_territory

The key is to watch the infected numbers in other countries. Some of the other countries near the top of the list on the above page possibly have less capacity on several levels to effectively control an outbreak than China does. If some of them start exhibiting signs of an exponential growth in cases, then we might all have front row seats to pandemonium.

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The current official number of infected in China is just over 7700. Still a nearly exponential trend. I've seen chatter that there is a backlog in testing potential cases, which is actually skewing new infected numbers down. Basically, there are infected people that aren't counted yet only because their sample is waiting in queue to be tested. Not verified, but seems plausible due to the ever increasing number of potential cases.

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Yeah. They were saying similar on Radio 4 this morning (though qualifying it as unproven) and it does feel like we might be getting that tipping point now where China's ability to screen and treat gets exceeded. Given the infection rate I think they've done a pretty incredible job so far but this is a huge mountain to climb. I hope they can keep running ahead of the curve.

What is impressive is the absolute drop off in the number of cases between China and the rest of the world. That implies that both China and the rest of the world are doing an excellent job of containing the virus within China's borders. I think we've learned a huge amount from the pandemics of the last decade.

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Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker

It is entirely possible that the virus came from some participant in the games. It would have gone through a few people, most likely, before it was recognized. There had to be a certain number of similar cases for people to start looking for a common, unusual, cause. Considering the gestation period, it is reasonable that a fast-spreading virus might have popped up in late October, and not reached the level where anybody noticed until December.

Still, the source is almost certainly a domestic animal. There are LOADS of viruses out there that can't currently infect humans, and are therefore unimportant to us. Once some mutation gives them the ability to infect humans....they're off and running. Something entirely novel is unlikely. Something that is a small change on something that didn't bother us is far more likely. Of course, that first transmission could have been to a participant in the games, and Wuhan may have been no more than the point of first detection, not the point of origin. Generally speaking, it doesn't matter. With so many harmless viruses out there that COULD mutate into something we care about, whether it happens here, there, or somewhere, is of relatively minor importance, in my opinion.

On the other hand, some of the more interesting diseases seem to originate in the places where organized humanity has been the longest. Africa has some of the most gruesome human pathogens, and China ought to be a bigger source than North America, where agricultural societies are pretty recent. Bugs have had thousands of years in contact with large masses of humans (agricultural societies can grow larger populations that liver more closely together) in China. In North America....well, there've been a couple hundred years, if we're generous.

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Although the prevailing idea is that the new coronavirus originates from wild animals, and the Chinese have a bad habit of eating wild animals(Note: Chinese eat bats are rumors). But there is a question: Chinese people have been eating wild animals for thousands of years. Why has the new coronavirus not infected humans until now? In any case, it would be a good thing if the new coronavirus could let the Chinese abandon the bad habit of eating wild animals.

Regarding the second possibility, my guess is that a foreign athlete was infected with the new coronavirus and brought the virus into China, but the athlete was very strong, and the new coronavirus did not affect him or he only had a slight cough or fever. But after the World Military Games, the new coronavirus infected the staff or volunteers of the games and spread in the densely populated city Wuhan. Of course, this is just conjecture. I just hope to find the source of the virus as soon as possible and work out a treatment solution.

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Originally Posted by TysonLPrice

Seems like you are relying on one source versus the world health community that is categorically stating that it is highly contagious and is contagious during the incubation period (up to fourteen days before symptoms). Maybe your source, or the last time you looked at the articles, is a little dated. These are recent developments. I stand by what I posted.

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Originally Posted by TysonLPrice

That's fine with me...I'll stick with the rest of the world's scientific consensus :p

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The World Health Organization is developing a conference today, saying that the severe disease rate of new pneumonia is about 20%, and the current mortality rate is about 2%. It will meet tomorrow to discuss whether to declare a global emergency. U.S. health officials said that Chinese health officials claim that they can be transmitted during the incubation period. We have not seen data in this regard. The United States has not found infectious periods during the incubation period. All five confirmed cases in the United States have visited Wuhan and none of the people they contact have been infected. Even if the incubation period is contagious, it's not the main thing.

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Originally Posted by dreammanor

The World Health Organization is developing a conference today, saying that the severe disease rate of new pneumonia is about 20%, and the current mortality rate is about 2%. It will meet tomorrow to discuss whether to declare a global emergency. U.S. health officials said that Chinese health officials claim that they can be transmitted during the incubation period. We have not seen data in this regard. The United States has not found infectious periods during the incubation period. All five confirmed cases in the United States have visited Wuhan and none of the people they contact have been infected. Even if the incubation period is contagious, it's not the main thing.

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Talk about beating a dead horse...you really don't like being wrong do you?

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Originally Posted by TysonLPrice

Talk about beating a dead horse...you really don't like being wrong do you?

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Could you provide your source of information? Although I trust the scientific knowledge provided by FangZhouzi(Fangshimin), I'm very interested in any evidence that proves he is wrong.

Google, or your favorite browser:

coronavirus contagious without symtoms

FYI...certain strains of influenza are the same. This is not new or unique.

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Originally Posted by TysonLPrice

Google, or your favorite browser:

coronavirus contagious without symtoms

FYI...certain strains of influenza are the same. This is not new or unique.

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I searched several webpages. Except that Chinese experts said the virus could be transmitted during the incubation period, I didn't seem to see the international authority medical institutions say that this coronavirus could be transmitted during the incubation period. Why don't you directly provide some of the links you see?

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Except that Chinese experts said the virus could be transmitted during the incubation period

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That was a key piece that I wasn't reading properly. As I went through the varying references to it being contagious without symptoms I was not picking up that that was ONLY coming out of China. Other references to a virus being contagious without symptoms were not corona-virus specific.

I stand corrected :blush:

Just read they feel after examinations of the virus that it most likely originated from the Chinese Horseshoe Bat. Seems they are always carrying a grip of virus' and diseases.

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Originally Posted by dreammanor

Although the prevailing idea is that the new coronavirus originates from wild animals, and the Chinese have a bad habit of eating wild animals(Note: Chinese eat bats are rumors). But there is a question: Chinese people have been eating wild animals for thousands of years. Why has the new coronavirus not infected humans until now? In any case, it would be a good thing if the new coronavirus could let the Chinese abandon the bad habit of eating wild animals.

Regarding the second possibility, my guess is that a foreign athlete was infected with the new coronavirus and brought the virus into China, but the athlete was very strong, and the new coronavirus did not affect him or he only had a slight cough or fever. But after the World Military Games, the new coronavirus infected the staff or volunteers of the games and spread in the densely populated city Wuhan. Of course, this is just conjecture. I just hope to find the source of the virus as soon as possible and work out a treatment solution.

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Ah, who knows. In the end, it doesn't really matter. There may be a couple reasons why the virus might be more likely to show up in China first, but it's pretty much irrelevant. If a virus is around, and some statistically unlikely mutation occurs that makes it possible for it to jump to humans, then it would be statistically more likely to make that jump in the most populous country on the planet. Of course, much of China is NOT all that populous, and there are plenty of cities in other countries that have LOTS of people and worse sanitation (which may or may not be relevant).

Whether the varied Chinese diet makes them more likely to encounter mutating viruses, I can't say. My understanding of the Chinese diet is that it is FAR more varied than the typical US diet (and there are some parts of this country where the diet has no variety at all), so there are more people encountering more different types of animals, in theory. It's all just speculation, though. In the end, it's mostly just bad luck. The Chinese got unlucky this time, and with SARS, but it was somebody else who got unlucky with MERS, and who knows who will be next?

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Originally Posted by TysonLPrice

That was a key piece that I wasn't reading properly. As I went through the varying references to it being contagious without symptoms I was not picking up that that was ONLY coming out of China. Other references to a virus being contagious without symptoms were not corona-virus specific.

I stand corrected :blush:

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I don't understand what you mean.

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Originally Posted by RobDog888

Just read they feel after examinations of the virus that it most likely originated from the Chinese Horseshoe Bat. Seems they are always carrying a grip of virus' and diseases.

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Please provide a link, thanks.

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Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker

Ah, who knows. In the end, it doesn't really matter. There may be a couple reasons why the virus might be more likely to show up in China first, but it's pretty much irrelevant. If a virus is around, and some statistically unlikely mutation occurs that makes it possible for it to jump to humans, then it would be statistically more likely to make that jump in the most populous country on the planet. Of course, much of China is NOT all that populous, and there are plenty of cities in other countries that have LOTS of people and worse sanitation (which may or may not be relevant).

Whether the varied Chinese diet makes them more likely to encounter mutating viruses, I can't say. My understanding of the Chinese diet is that it is FAR more varied than the typical US diet (and there are some parts of this country where the diet has no variety at all), so there are more people encountering more different types of animals, in theory. It's all just speculation, though. In the end, it's mostly just bad luck. The Chinese got unlucky this time, and with SARS, but it was somebody else who got unlucky with MERS, and who knows who will be next?

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IMO, where the virus comes from is very important. If the virus comes from Chinese wildlife, it means that even if the Chinese have been with those wildlife for thousands of years, the Chinese still have not developed immunity to the virus carried by the wildlife. If the virus comes from a foreign country, it may indicate that people in that area have developed immunity to the virus, and this shows that the virus has characteristics similar to influenza.

In addition, Chinese people like to eat wild animals are mainly misled by "Chinese traditional medicine". Japan borrowed from Chinese culture and "Chinese traditional medicine". But 100 years ago, Japan understood that "Chinese traditional medicine" is completely "pseudoscience", and they very decisively abandoned "Chinese traditional medicine" and embraced "modern medicine". The Chinese are still being poisoned by "Chinese traditional medicine."

Couldnt find the same article but these have similar content.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/28/s...rus-Wuhan.html
https://www.businessinsider.com/wuha...-humans-2020-1

So bat poop on fruit, people eat fruit.

And/Or

Bats infect the snakes and humans eat snakes.

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Originally Posted by dreammanor

IMO, where the virus comes from is very important. If the virus comes from Chinese wildlife, it means that even if the Chinese have been with those wildlife for thousands of years, the Chinese still have not developed immunity to the virus carried by the wildlife. If the virus comes from a foreign country, it may indicate that people in that area have developed immunity to the virus, and this shows that the virus has characteristics similar to influenza.

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I was told that there are numerous viruses (and other elements) in the ocean that can get into a person's bloodstream via a cut or scrape, and for which there is no known cure. Technically, I'm pretty sure that is correct, because the description amounts to sepsis, which is not well understood to this day. However, it's also absurd, because if the ocean were all that deadly, we'd have all died out a long time back, due to the reliance of humans on seafood and sea travel over the centuries. There are likely billions of viruses and bacteria out there. The factors that go into an initial infection can be very poorly understood. Our immune systems are pretty good at recognizing novel invaders and killing them off....right up until the point where they are not. Most likely, your body swats aside numerous potential invaders each day, and you don't even notice. Then, one day, something different happens. Why is that? Perhaps it was a mutation? Perhaps we'll never know? You may have been living in contact with that particular invader for generations, but whatever changed happened to change now, not earlier.

We should be more used to recognizing something that we've lived with for generations. On the other hand, if it got past our immune system and started an infection, then by definition, it is something that we weren't ready for. Does it really matter whether it was something we've known for a long time that mutated, or something that we have never known because it came from elsewhere?

14380 confirmed infected in China.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeli...virus_outbreak

The detailed chart on the above linked page is interesting. 259 dead, 243 recovered as of yesterday. 1795 in serious or worse condition. Still way too early to determine the fatality rate, but it seems like it will be higher than initial estimates of around 3%.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E..._and_territory

171 confirmed cases outside of China. That number keeps creeping steadily higher. Doesn't sound like a lot, but it was only 2 weeks ago that China had around 170 confirmed cases, and now they have over 14000.

Fang Zhouzi: <<From SARS to New Pneumonia: Reason in Panic>> --Excerpt (From Google Translate)
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Hxsv1bXKgfRnq5njpW4fFg

There are two main concerns of this infectious disease. The first point is its pathogenicity. What kind of toxicity is this infectious virus, whether it will cause death, and whether the mortality rate will be high? This is of great concern to everyone. Because SARS has passed, mortal patients have died, and the number of confirmed patients has been fixed, and a more accurate mortality rate can be calculated. The lethal rate of SARS is about 10%, which is a little lower in mainland China, about 7%. Why is it so high? It is mainly because the SARS mortality rate in Hong Kong is very high, more than ten percent, which may be related to the special virus strain. Regardless, the lethal rate of SARS is about 10% worldwide, which is actually not very high. The mortality rate of the Middle East respiratory syndrome is much higher than SARS, which is about 35%, so SARS is not a particularly scary infectious disease. There are many more infectious diseases than SARS. In addition to the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, Ebola virus is more horrible. The mortality rate can reach 50% or even 90%. If you look at it this way, you can see that SARS is not a very horrible and lethal infectious disease.

So what is the fatality rate of new pneumonia infectious diseases? It is not yet possible to calculate it accurately, because it is still being transmitted, it is not over, and it can even be said that it has not yet reached its peak, and the exact mortality rate is unclear. However, it can be estimated from the existing cases and death cases that its fatality rate will not be very high. You may see reports online that The Lancet has published a paper saying that the fatality rate of the first batch of patients with new pneumonia was as high as 15%. The 15% fatality rate is higher than SARS, but we must know that the first batch of patients are often more serious and the symptoms are more noticeable. You think, when this new type of infectious disease just broke out, everyone did n’t know its existence, so people with mild symptoms would not be found without going to the clinic; or although they went to the hospital for treatment, they were treated as a common cold Or the flu is cured. Therefore, the mortality rate calculated by the first batch of patients will be high. Later, a large number of screenings were started, and those with mild or even no symptoms were identified. At this time, the number of people who became ill swelled suddenly, and the number of deaths increased. Because of this disease, it takes a while to die. I took a look at it, and it may take an average of two to three weeks. Some are relatively fast. They may die within a few days or ten days after being hospitalized, and some may take two to three weeks or even longer to die. As a group of patients became ill and died, the number of newly discovered and newly diagnosed patients kept increasing. We can see a trend that among the confirmed patients, the proportion of sickness and death has actually been declining. In the early days it was almost 4%, then it became 3%, then it was 2.8%. Today I calculated it is 2.2%-it is getting lower and lower. This is completely estimated, and certainly not equal to its lethality, but it can be seen that the share of the entire death case has not increased any more, but a decreasing trend has appeared. So from the current point of view, although the exact mortality rate is not known, it is estimated that it will not be very high. I estimate it may not be higher than 3%, and it may be even lower, because there are still a large number of suspected cases that have not been diagnosed. Although some people will gradually die, a large number of suspected cases are confirmed, and a large number of undetected cases are found, so the denominator is also growing. The numerator is getting bigger and the denominator is getting bigger. From the perspective of the whole trend, I think the tendency of the denominator getting bigger is higher than the tendency of the numerator getting bigger. Therefore, it is likely that the whole will decline.

Fang Zhouzi: <<From SARS to New Pneumonia: Reason in Panic>> --Excerpt (From Google Translate)
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Hxsv1bXKgfRnq5njpW4fFg

At present, there is a very important point: most of these cases of new pneumonia deaths are elderly people who have other underlying diseases (such as heart disease) or older. Let's think about it, if these people get other pneumonia instead of atypical pneumonia, their fatality rate is also very high, and they are likely to die. Thinking about it that way is not terrible or terrifying. Of course, I'm not saying that these people deserve it, and it's not worth the treatment. It just means that compared with other pneumonia or diseases, the new type of pneumonia is not so scary. This is an important point. Compared with the SARS killer, the new type of pneumonia is not so scary, because many of the SARS deaths are young and healthy people, which makes people feel more scary.

During the course of infection, the virus will mutate, and the toxicity may become stronger or weaker. Yesterday, I saw the director of the National Health and Medical Commission said that the toxicity has become stronger and stronger, I don't know what basis he has to say such a thing. It is possible for a virus to mutate more or less toxic, but the general trend is that its toxicity will become weaker and weaker. When SARS first got up, I wrote an article and said the reason: why the virus becomes weaker and weaker in the process of transmission. This is a prediction based on the laws of natural selection. Because a highly toxic virus will cause the patient to die very quickly, this patient will not have much opportunity to contact others and spread the infection; therefore, the strain of a highly toxic virus cannot spread widely and its infectivity is not strong. . However, those who are weakly toxic can easily spread because they have no obvious or severe symptoms, run around and contact people, and do not isolate them in time. Therefore, the general trend of virus toxicity will become weaker and weaker.

In addition to toxicity, everyone is very concerned about how infectious the virus is and whether it can be quickly transmitted to many people. If it is highly contagious, a major outbreak of infectious disease will occur and it will be impossible to control. As for how infectious the new pneumonia is, it is still in the preliminary estimation stage. According to the available data, it is not very contagious. If isolation is not adopted and no external intervention is used, it is possible that an average patient can pass on to two or more people. This contagion is similar to SARS-SARS contagion is about one to five to five people. Of course, the infectivity of this new type of virus may change. With more complete and updated data, it may need to be modified; but if it is transmitted by one person to two or more people, then the infectivity is similar to SARS . Therefore, according to the current situation, this new type of pneumonia is almost as infectious as SARS, and its toxicity is weaker than SARS. However, compared with SARS seventeen years ago, the general public and even the entire Chinese society have responded to this new pneumonia with the same panic, even more panic. In the face of an infectious disease that is less toxic and less infectious, but behaves as panic or even more panic, this is very irrational and very unnecessary.

As in SARS, everyone wears a mask, all over the street wear masks; unlike SARS, medical institutions and medical experts just "recommend" everyone to wear masks, but now Wuhan, Guangdong, Several places, such as Nanjing and Wuxi, require all people to wear masks in public places, otherwise it is illegal. There are already videos on the Internet of Guangzhou police arresting those who do not wear masks, and others have reported to me that he was arrested in Guangzhou for not wearing a mask. During SARS, there have been some places that blocked roads and prevented outsiders from entering; these are often relatively backward places, such as rural areas. Many places are now digging roads, and even a wall is blocked to block the roads. Not only are relatively small roads in rural areas, but even highway bridges are blocked. This performance is even worse than it was during SARS. At the time of SARS, the Ministry of Public Security also issued a "three no-nos" notice, one of which was not allowed to block traffic, not to use stones, earth, or any other way to dig roads to disrupt traffic. Traffic damage in many places is even more serious than it was then, but I did not see a notice from the Ministry of Public Security saying that it was not allowed. It seems that this has been acquiesced.

There is also taking medicine indiscriminately and taking Chinese medicine. During SARS, various kinds of Chinese medicine soup were boiled. They claimed to be able to prevent SARS and required everyone to drink, even students. This caused some school students to drink Chinese medicine soup and became poisoned. At present, the poisoning situation has not been heard, but even the government departments on the Internet have also published Chinese medicine prescriptions for prevention, and some hospitals are also selling this soup for everyone to drink. This situation is similar to before. It is said that Banlangen can prevent SARS during SARS. Some doctors and some departments also advocate eating Banlangen. This time, it was no longer recommended to eat Banlangen, but replaced with other more expensive Chinese medicine, such as the lotus Qingwen granule. Even the first-line doctors in Wuhan said that they were taking Lianhua Qingwen granules for prevention. When the doctors of Peking Union Medical College went to Wuhan for support, they claimed to have brought Lianhua Qingwen granules as preventive medicine. Lianhua Qingwen was created by a Chinese medicine liar, which I have previously exposed. It's much more expensive than Banlangen, so instead of drinking Banlangen granules, you should eat Lotus Qingwen capsules and Lotus Qingwen granules. This can be said to be an upgraded version of Chinese medicine deceiving, because this medicine is much more expensive, and the money that can be cheated is even more.

There are also snap-ups, not only masks, but also daily necessities, rice, oil, and instant noodles. I don't remember if there were any reports in this area at that time. A similar situation should have happened. It is even more serious now. Reports on the Internet have also come out, leaving me a deeper impression.

Fang Zhouzi: <<From SARS to New Pneumonia: Reason in Panic>> --Excerpt (From Google Translate)
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Hxsv1bXKgfRnq5njpW4fFg

Why is it such a panic? This panic is man-made to a considerable extent. So what are the factors? The first important factor is the recklessness of officials at all levels. It can be seen from the time of SARS that at the national level, the regulations of the Ministry of Health are much stricter than those of the World Health Organization, which has already been regarded as a kind of foolhardy force; when it arrived, local governments expanded it at once It's more foolhardy. They are all afraid of taking responsibility, so the epidemic situation must be said to be very serious. In the event of any omission, you can reduce your responsibility; moreover, if you overcome the epidemic situation in the future, the credit will be greater. Therefore, they should exaggerate the epidemic situation and take some more extreme approaches, for fear of being accused of inadequate epidemic prevention. From the beginning of concealment to the subsequent adoption of various extreme epidemic prevention measures, they all happened during SARS, and they are happening now, and they are more serious. At the time of SARS, although there would be some control over the entry and exit of the epidemic area at that time, but the extreme means of sealing the entire city had not been adopted, then there is already now-sealing Wuhan. Later, it was found that it was not possible to lightly seal Wuhan, and other surrounding cities were also sealed. Enclosing Wuhan alone encloses 11 million people, and then encloses all the other cities around it, tens of millions of people. However, when it was closed, it did not take into account the problems of supply and transportation in the city. Slowly, social chaos occurred, and all kinds of chaos increased.

Another factor is the intentional or unintentional exaggeration of the outbreak by medical staff. In the last SARS incident, medical staff described it as horrible. I can understand this, because many medical staff have died in the beginning. So far this time, no medical staff has died. A few days ago, it was reported that a doctor in Wuhan died of illness. At that time, many people were saying that this was a hero, and many people were also praised on Twitter. It was just a retired doctor, not involved in the death of the epidemic. It cannot be said that he was a dead man. He was just an ordinary patient. Moreover, he is only a suspected case. It is unclear whether he died of new pneumonia or died of influenza. At present, no doctor has died because of a new type of viral pneumonia, and it is not so scary and terrible. However, these medical staff in China are very tragic. Some doctors posted on the Internet the words or letters of friends in the circle of friends, as if they are fighting with death—this "fighting with death" does not mean to take the lives of patients Grim Reaper came to his rescue, but felt that if he did not do well, he would die. Those who went to support started to write war books, what oath ceremony, expedition ceremony and so on. These are deliberately or unintentionally rendering a tragic atmosphere, so that ordinary people and the general public are also scared to see it, thinking that the real disaster is coming, so these doctors are needed to die. This is also a factor that creates terror and panic, and is very unprofessional. Except for China, doctors in no other country will do this. They will feel that they are going to die if they want to prevent the epidemic, to fight the epidemic, to deal with the epidemic, and to support them, and then they are particularly distressed, because this is the doctor's duty. Infectious diseases as horrible as Ebola are supported by doctors in many countries, and doctors from other countries have not written a "competition letter". What is the oath ceremony? No. Go where you should go, or even ask for it voluntarily. Because for them, this is the job of the doctor. This is a very professional attitude and a very calm attitude. There is no need to desperately stir up emotions, and the result of this has caused public panic. Of course, there may be another factor in this, that Chinese doctors want to change their image and feel that they have an opportunity to change their image. Because the image of Chinese doctors has been very bad over the years, medical ethics are very poor, and the doctor-patient relationship is also very poor. They felt that after such an epidemic emerged, the image of doctors could suddenly become taller. Because during the SARS era, the image of the doctor did change, as if the doctor suddenly became a hero. They felt that now the opportunity came again, so they desperately exaggerated the severity of the epidemic and made everyone think how great the doctor was, fighting against death, and risking their lives.

In addition, in order to attract readers, the media desperately instigated the epidemic and said it was very serious. This scary way may be a marketing tool, the more sensational the words are, the more willing the reader is to read. Although this is in line with the law of communication, it is very irresponsible and very unprofessional. This is not only done by Chinese media, but also by foreign media, but it is not as good as Chinese media. After all, people have to be more professional. Even so, the editor of The Lancet a few days ago criticized the media for exaggerating new pneumonia. He should mainly target foreign media, but in fact, Chinese media is more serious than foreign media. This was the case 17 years ago, and it is still the same. Moreover, now that the Internet is more developed, traditional media is still important seventeen years ago. It is not important anymore. Paper media is not important anymore. Everyone mainly depends on online media. Internet media are more sensational and more eye-catching. In order to attract traffic, retransmission rates, and reading, they prefer sensationalism.

Finally, there is another reason. The scientific literacy of the general public is still very poor. Although the scientific literacy has been continuously measured in the past ten years, the proportion of people with scientific literacy has been said to double and keep doubling; but in my opinion, the actual progress is not great. The vast majority of the general public is still unscientific and foolish. Therefore, I am still very scared of this new infectious disease. Even if the probability of infection is extremely low, it is still very scared. If you have some scientific literacy, you should not have to panic if you calculate the probability of being infected and the probability of death after being infected. Seventeen years ago, SARS caused so much panic. In the end, there were more than 8,000 cases and about 800 people died. This is the situation around the world. Counting how many people are in the world, you should know how low the risk of SARS infection is. It may be different in some places. Some are in the epidemic area and some are not in the epidemic area. Even in the epidemic area, even if there are thousands of people in Beijing, the probability is very low. The death rate of seven or eight percent is even lower.

Dreammanor corrects the wrong translation of Google Translate:
So even in the epidemic area(Beijing's population is over 10 million), several thousand of them are infected, the probability of infection is very low. After infection, the mortality rate is 7-8%, which is even lower.

Fang Zhouzi: <<From SARS to New Pneumonia: Reason in Panic>> --Excerpt (From Google Translate)
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Hxsv1bXKgfRnq5njpW4fFg

Compared to seventeen years ago, these situations still exist: officials are foolhardy/reckless, the media is sensational, doctors exaggerate, and ordinary people are foolish. The situation is still the same, even worse. I joked that compared to 17 years ago, I was more "confident" because the national strength was stronger, the economy developed, and I had more money in my hands, it was even more "confident"; it would be even more unreasonable to do so. Seventeen years ago, people from the Provincial Department of Health also listened to me and finally dared not isolate me; now it is different. If you encounter this situation again, you will definitely not speak to me and just grab me in Already.

If another 17 years later, there will be another new type of infectious disease-this is unavoidable, and new types of infectious diseases will always break out sooner or later, and even more serious new types of infectious diseases may emerge-if this status quo in China is not Change, then the result may still be the same, and then the same panic. This requires that we still do more scientific popularization work so that the public can maintain a certain rationality in the panic. Of course, this is difficult. Because at this time, doing science popularization, telling everyone to be rational, is to be scolded. And as I said just now, because the Chinese are more "confident" now, there are more scolders and even more irrational. Seventeen years ago, there were still many people listening to my science. I could hardly hear them and nobody would call me. At that time, the Internet was already available, but no one came over the wall and scolded me. At that time, I wrote a series of popular science articles, which can also be published in Chinese newspapers. At that time, I had a good relationship with the Global Times. I wrote several articles on the Global Times, which was the newspaper with the largest circulation at that time. But now it is no longer possible. It is difficult to hear such a more rational voice calling for panic in newspapers. Different voices are hard to hear. Although there are on the Internet, there are still a few, and most people still attack there and scold them there. Therefore, in this case, to do science popularization and tell everyone to be calm and rational, it takes courage even more. I have been saying that it takes courage to do science in China. It usually takes courage, and in this special case, in the public panic, it takes courage even more.

I will talk about it today and see if you have any questions, I can answer them.

FangZhouzi(Fangshimin)

Holy God, in January the third world war almost began, innocent people died and a mutant virus appeared ...

PD: Reality is worse than fiction

I know the execution efficiency of the Chinese government very well, and I know they can overcome any difficulties.

But this time I was very disappointed, they did not handle the epidemic in a scientific way, they fight the virus in a radical and backward way, although their original intention is good.

It is wrong to close the city. It is wrong to track and isolate the mildly patients. It is wrong for ordinary people to wear masks. It is wrong to panic.

The correct approach should be as the Prime Minister of Singapore said.

I don't think we really have enough experience with this kind of thing to say for certain what is right or wrong until we can look back on it. What I see is that the Chinese government learned several lessons from SARS, and have applied them to this. So, this might be considered "test #2". They did better. They'll likely learn more, and hopefully the rest of the world will, as well.

In China, less than 1% of people have scientific literacy. These people know that the current approach adopted by the Chinese government is unscientific and unreasonable, but their voices are drowned out by the noise.

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Originally Posted by dreammanor

In China, less than 1% of people have scientific literacy.

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I'm not sure the figure varies all that much for most of the world.

It is probably also useful to consider hope and desperation when people are miserable or fearful. Those might lead folks to lean on anything that might offer relief.

I agree with both of you. The face masks don't make much difference, but it may well make people feel better, even if the science is against them. If they are science illiterate, it may make them feel even better. Sometimes, doing something useful isn't nearly as important as doing SOMETHING. It's bedside manner for a government. People want to see them taking action.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dilettante

I'm not sure the figure varies all that much for most of the world.

It is probably also useful to consider hope and desperation when people are miserable or fearful. Those might lead folks to lean on anything that might offer relief.

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15% of people in U.S. are scientifically literate, but I guess the actual number should be less than 10%. A few years ago, an official Chinese organization announced that the percentage of Chinese citizens with scientific literacy is 7%, but according to my observations, the actual percentage is less than 1%.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker

I agree with both of you. The face masks don't make much difference, but it may well make people feel better, even if the science is against them. If they are science illiterate, it may make them feel even better. Sometimes, doing something useful isn't nearly as important as doing SOMETHING. It's bedside manner for a government. People want to see them taking action.

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To be precise, it's the medical officials in China that disappoint me(especially those of traditional Chinese medicine). They provided the government with the wrong information and the wrong solution. Hope people will realize this in the future.

Now spreading rapidly in Italy, South Korea, and Iran. The current official infected numbers from Iran seem far too low based on their reported number of deaths. Stock market tanking today because of the virus.

Seems like this is definitely going to go global at this point.

Yeah, it sure looks like a pandemic. The Italy outbreak is pretty interesting, considering the original source doesn't appear to be known, yet.

There. I moved the thread to World Events. It's now officially a pandemic. I probably only beat the WHO by a matter of days, at most.