Once A Nazi always a Nazi.
Pfizer study to vaccinate entire Brazilian town against COVID-19:
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/corona...d-19-1.5613079
I hope the people do something but I don't have a clue on the Brazil people behavior.
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Once A Nazi always a Nazi.
Pfizer study to vaccinate entire Brazilian town against COVID-19:
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/corona...d-19-1.5613079
I hope the people do something but I don't have a clue on the Brazil people behavior.
I think there are patterns of contagion over time that the explanations seem to defy. The rise and spread of new "waves" of high infection levels and hospitalization seems to flow more like some sort of brushfire progression.
Areas "drier" with more easily ignited "dead wood" take off and blaze up early as each new variant is brought in from its point of origin. This gradually burns out throwing "sparks" into neighboring areas until they too flare up from accumulated exposure.
Each time another highly infectious variant comes along we repeat the same process again, though the point of entry seems to change. At the very beginning the west coast lit up first, but very quickly New York and New Jersey lit up bigger. We know know those were separate variants. Then we had another flare up with the UK variant, which again seemed to start burning on the east coast. Most recently we had the Indian variant, but that took off hardest in the south when it started.
I wonder if Australia noticed this overall pattern early. Maybe that's why they focused on compartmentalizing internal travel.
The truth is that we are all going to get the flueken at some point. The total confirmed cases are 219M so the unclassified should be close to 500- 1 billion. There is nothing we can do to prevent everyone getting it at a point in time but just like the flu we will prolly get the endemic version so we should be fine. As fine as getting a flu can be. So, at least, masking and lock downs are useless and vaccine on lower ages but let's not start again.
I don't think it is any mystery that in the U.S. that the "waves" are primarily from the Delta variation and people who are not vaccinated. I don't think the fire analogy applies because this isn't just chance and embers. At certain points, after the initial spread and the immergence of the Delta variant, the clusters of infection fell along political lines. Republican led states that opposed vaccine and masks mandates got hit really hard and consistently had higher hospital and death rates.Quote:
Originally Posted by dilettante
No mysteries are involved. It is human behavior and it also fell along political lines.
Look at the map of hot spots, animated over the past 60 days:
https://www.mayoclinic.org/coronavirus-covid-19/map
I don't think your Maddow-fed "analysis" fits the facts. I agree that vaccination levels play a role, but there are lots of other factors as well. I would like to know what the biggest ones might be so we can target more of them and (maybe) get the situation under better control.
I never look at those videos...The biggest factor of all was Trump whether you can admit it or not. He deliberately, by has own admission, downplayed it from the beginning. Calling it a democratic hoax, saying it would be gone by April, and all the other dangerous rhetoric he was spouting at rallies. There isn't any doubt that the majority of the anti-maskers and anti-vaccine people are his followers. Then at the worst of the pandemic he turned his back on it to pursue his stolen election cause. That assault on democracy is a whole other conversation.Quote:
Originally Posted by dilettante
Anyone that denies Trump's gross mishandling of the pandemic caused hundreds of thousands of unnecessary deaths is in denial or rewriting history.
Between lockdowns (full or partial) and supply-chain problems I'm still looking at shelf-stable food supplies. Sometimes you need a little novelty though.
What do you think about this one?
CARROT CAKE ALMOND & WALNUT BUTTER
Ordered a jar to sample it. I suppose your tastes will determine how good it sounds.Quote:
Made with lightly toasted English walnuts, heirloom Mission almonds, cinnamon, nutmeg, allspice, maple syrup, and Jacobsen sea salt, Carrot Cake Almond & Walnut Butter is like decadent, spreadable carrot cake in a jar, but it's vegan, has no refined sugar, and contains only heart-healthy fats. We recommend adding this nut butter to creamy overnight oats made with tart yogurt and topped with carrot shreds for the full carrot-cake experience.
I'm thinking about small pancakes made with shredded carrot, with a smear of this on top or even two small pancakes as a "sandwich" snack cake alternative.
Could also be a treat to share around when camping, but I don't do the kind of long hiking any more where you spend nights around a campfire with strangers. Do people still do that in this day and age, even pre-COVID? Our world has changed a lot since the 1970s.
Oh no... the fire analogy does fit... It's called arson...Quote:
Originally Posted by TysonLPrice
-tg
Trump couldn't have done anything better than any other leader. See all the countries in the world.Unless every leader is "Trump" they all did the same thing give or take.
Also he was trying to implement the, so far, more successful Swedish model but we was elected out.
That is plain BS. I challenge that you do not have a clue about the litany of denials and missteps he and his cronies made. I can say that with confidence because anyone that really has the background would not have said that.Quote:
Originally Posted by sapator
https://fortune.com/2020/11/13/covid...s-coronavirus/
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics...avirus/608647/
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/29/opini...ave/index.html
That is BS... He could have done better. He should have done better. But he's too narcissistic and his ego is too big to allow him to do anything like that. He doesn't like not being in control and the outbreak was was something he couldn't control and he freaked out. HE lost it. And so rather than being a leader about it and face it - and I know I made a post about in here before - he stuck his fingers in his ears, his head in his arse, and pretended that it wasn't happening. And EVEN AFTER he got sick with it, he STILL couldn't come to grips with it and admit he was wrong. And THAT's why we (the US) is in the state it's in.
-tg
I think the brush fire analogy is fairly correct. There's nothing all that surprising about that map, as far as I can see. There was a recent paper that showed...well, pretty much what you would expect, which is that most people make most of their trips in the area around where they live, and fewer trips further away. This has always been known, since it's kind of obvious, but that new study was showing the pattern within individual cities, instead of between cities.Quote:
Originally Posted by dilettante
The map shown in that link is showing things at the state level, which is a pretty coarse scale when you consider a study that shows the majority of people spend the majority of their time visiting local services (within five miles, if I remember the study right). For example, Idaho is just dark red, but there's a big part of Idaho that has ZERO cases...unless elk get COVID, and if they do we don't know about it. We only have one north-south highway, so there's the big population center in the southern part of the state along I-84, then a second population center (though smaller) up around I-90, and it can be a pain to travel between those, so there likely isn't all that much flow between them. That northern area went to emergency levels long before the rest of the state got bad.
If we could track at a much finer scale, we'd probably see what amounted to little bursts radiating out from this place and that place, much like your sparks igniting flare ups, but at a MUCH finer scale.
Still, I don't see how that is at all surprising. That's how infectious transmissions work.
That could be interesting. My one experience with almond butter was amusing, but negative. We got a gallon of almond butter, but it was non-homogenized, so it separated into oil and solid. You couldn't bust that solid part out with a chisel....well, actually you could, because that's what we did with it: Busted it out with a chisel and fed it to the birds. You couldn't spread it, so it was kind of solid chunks of somewhat slippery almond nut.Quote:
Originally Posted by dilettante
So, if it can be spread, it could be pretty nice.
Well as I've said you can't really stop covid so might as well go with the flow.
If I'm not mistaken orange is out for quite some time now. From the discussions here you are still in a stalemate .
I know that you mostly hate him but there was nothing to be done with anyone else up in the office.
We won't know but I strongly believe he would have done the same if not worse.
But frankly I don't really care cuz we have our own dictator here to play with. If you feel covid would have been sustained somehow then fine, you would have been the only country to do so.
Also it's a pitty you can't taste our sweets here. Pancakes made with shredded carrot...:blush:
The reason I don't like the analogy is it is comparing a physical event, the fire, to an event that is controlled by human nature. Maybe looking at a map you might say that it looks like a fire...OK. But you can count on what the fire will do as a physical event, to a certain extant, not with human behavior. I do see the point though.Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker
It's pretty funny that Trump Derangement Syndrome still has such a hold on minds that they continue to make wild claims linking him to pandemics, hurricanes, and alien invasions.
He's the gift that keeps on giving.
They'll claim to be in favor of vaccination, yet at the same time criticize him for taking action to promote their development while Congress sat on their thumbs wining and dining donors unable to do anything productive.
The Trump administration quietly spent billions in hospital funds on Operation Warp Speed
We know who the villains are, it wasn't Trump.
Your ability to warp reality is staggering at times.
Literally nobody has criticised him for investing money via Operation Light Speed (though some, including myself, have pointed out that governments around the world did exactly the same so it's not really worthy of exceptional praise either). What people have criticised him for is down playing the severity of the virus, pandering to the anti-vax movement, undermining scientific expertise and touting untested and potentially dangerous alternatives - all of which has contributed to the woeful vaccination rates and resultant infection rates you have right now.
You may reject the above criticisms (despite them factually provable) but making up criticisms that aren't being made, just so you can argue against them, is straight up gas lighting.
I think Trump Derangement Syndrome is the diametric opposite of what you think it is.
Operation Warp Speed was probably the only thing done right... But one thing right doesn't erase all the other things done wrong. It's classic abusive relationship behavior. "Oh baby I'm sorry for all the other times I hit you, I'll be better this time." ... yeah... no...
-tg
Ultimately people deserve what they get, so if your are good with Biden you shouldn't be bashing someone left a long time ago from the office.IMHO.
Also another thing he did right is calling it a Chinese flue, we don't know if it was a shot in the dark but eventually it was correct.
In other news, it rained today, it hasn't rained since early May so we went 5 months with no drop of water. I'm all fuzzy about how the heck do we maintain an adequate supply of water without rain or cold or ice but, it's all Greek to me.
Considering the hold that Trump still has on the Republican party, he's still a concern. When the Arizona audit found that Biden gained a slightly larger victory than before, not only did Trump say that it justified overturning the Arizona election, there are now similar audits being launched in several other states.
At this point, the Republican party is solidifying around a position of straight up stealing elections, and Trump is cheering them on. They are becoming the greatest threat to democracy in the US, and that's not some exaggeration. The only question is whether or not they will pretend to respect elections, or like some of the more extreme members, state that elections that don't go their way should be simply overturned.
You need not look at mainstream media, or get your views from social media. Just follow what the Republican party is actually doing, the laws they are attempting to pass, and the statements they are making to the press. They are seeing how explicitly anti-democratic they can be without any pushback, and they are seeing that they can go very far indeed.
European Journal of Epidemiology (2021):
Increases in COVID-19 are unrelated to levels of vaccination across 68 countries and 2947 counties in the United States.
https://link.springer.com/article/10...54-021-00808-7
I haven't read it fully, waiting for the scientist here to dispute an article not posted in controlled media papers but in the EJE and tell us to vaccinate.
So from one point(science journal) to the other (media time)
Since project veritas is targeted as deceptively in the controlled media and facebook blocked it, it's definitely worth a go. :cool:
So:
Hidden camera on Pfizer scientists.
Pfizer Scientist: Pfizer vaccine is useless when people have natural antibodies.
Veritas Journalist: “So, what happened to the monoclonal antibody treatments?”
Croce: “[It got] pushed to the side.”
Veritas Journalist: “Why?”
Croce: “Money. It's disgusting.”
https://www.projectveritas.com/news/...e-vaccination/
https://www.visiontimes.com/2021/10/...-immunity.html
https://www.citizensjournal.us/hidde...zNApCjcnBszQhl
Vaccines:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obdI7tgKLtA
Thanks for confirming the virulence of TDS and the grip it still has at this late date. I'm not sure we've seen this kind of authoritarian groupthink since the rise of European fascism in the 20th century. The levels of mindless fear and lack of introspection are breathtaking and alarming.
When you poke a stick into their politicization of the pandemic the deplorables pour out of the nest like so many enraged wasps, buzzing in all directions attacking anything that moves.
Come on people, you are stronger than this. Fight your demons.
You're welcome.
Cuz I like you I'm gonna write a parable.
There once was a mighty king, his subjects loved him. Everyone respected him and his words of wisdom all but a bad witch. One night the witch poisoned the main well of the kingdom, everyone drunk from the well went crazy. So as be it everyone drunk from the well but the king. From that point forth everyone started to say, "what happened to our king" what is he talking about? He has gone crazy! The pressure of the people overcame the king and that very night he also drunk from the well. In the morning everyone was rejoicing, hurray,hurray our king has found his sanity again. And they lived happily ever after.
Increases in COVID-19 are unrelated to levels of vaccination across 68 countries and 2947 counties in the United States.
We try, but you keep coming back.Quote:
Originally Posted by dilettante
What I posted isn't some made up symptom. It's what is actually happening on the ground.
Then don't read it fully, just read the conclusion: People should be encouraged to get vaccinated.Quote:
Originally Posted by sapator
However, what they showed is disturbing, though not entirely surprising. The protection against sickness and death is real, but they mention a study that suggests it is declining. One of the questions that was always present was how long the protection would last. If the study they mention is right, then boosters are needed to keep the protection high. However, what that paper is implying is that the vaccines don't prevent spread, just serious illness and death. For the most part, they are showing what people were saying back when the virus first popped up: You need somewhere over 70% immunity to create herd immunity. In their chart, the lowest spread were from those counties with a vaccination of 70% and over, while those below that showed no particular pattern at all.
That seems kind of reasonable, frankly. If you take a county like the one I'm in, which has a pretty high population (I don't know what it is, but probably in the vicinity of a quarter million people), then if you have 70% fully vaccinated or recovered (HA!), you'd still have around every fourth person not protected in any way. If vaccinated people can still spread the virus, then that part of the population will get clobbered.
On the other hand, if you have some county like the one south of me, which is one of the least populated placed in the US (the story is that it was named after Hawaii in an attempt to fool people into thinking it might be something other than a desert, but it's still mostly unpopulated). Even if they only have a 10% vaccination rate, the virus may not be able to spread because people so rarely come into contact with anyone else. It can get into the biggest population centers, but they aren't very big, and there's nowhere for it to go when it gets there.
So, yeah, the paper says that everybody should get vaccinated, but that it may not be enough. What it does NOT say is that there is some alternative, including ignoring it, that will work.
I'm not sure there is much more ground to be gained in getting people vaccinated. Disappointing, yes, but here we are. The same goes for other things like masking, distancing, hand washing, and general health improvements that might curb vulnerabilities at least some.
We don't have too many other paths to take. Most of the things that might matter would require more unpopular mandates than the ones that already send people into foaming fits of fear.
Will booster doses help? I'm not sure we know. So far I can't even get one, so that isn't a real factor for me right now.
It's tiresome but...
Endemic Endemic Endemic endemic.
There.
Yeah, that's easy for you to say. You haven't seen the death toll that we have. Hospitals in Idaho are under emergency orders because they've at or very near capacity. Roughly 90% of those people are unvaccinated. We have a pretty bad vaccination rate, but it's over 40%. If you were to add that group in, the hospitals would have been totally swamped.
Endemic is one thing, but mild it is not. The flu kills a few tens of thousands a year in this country. COVID has been killing a few hundred thousand per year.
What do you propose we should do? Pretend those deaths didn't happen? Let the hospitals go under? Calling it endemic doesn't help. Ignoring it doesn't make it go away.
Poor guy. Such a rude awakening for him:
https://youtu.be/zy7c_FHiEac
At least he was willing to expose this idol's feet of clay. The first few minutes are hilarious.
That was weird. What was his point? He starts off complaining that reporters report. Who ELSE is supposed to? Are we only allowed to get CDC publications, and only if we search for them ourselves, or if they are presented by a doctor? I'm not sure what his point was in that.
Earlier on, he makes what I would consider something of a snide comment about the fact that the first author of a cited paper appears to be a student. I'm not sure what his history is, but this happens all the time, especially in grad school. It's not unusual, it's not important, and I don't know why he would be surprised at that.
Later on (I paused at 9:58, though the part started earlier than that), he starts complaining about a comment about a study in Lebanon, and states repeatedly that we don't know what it is....except that we DO. That's the link immediately following the statement he's complaining about. They cited the study they were talking about, and he...overlooks it? Didn't wonder what that URL was? Doesn't know what a URL is? Not sure.
At that point, I decided that lunch was more important. Perhaps somebody would sum it up for me. In the first 10 minutes, he mostly came across as having a problem with the BBC and going to odd lengths to prove it.
According to the official death data I have post in the previous page, there is only a mild disturbance in the course of death from 2018 to 2021 so I hear what you say, granted I'm not living there but the diagrams do not show a pandemic. I'm sorry to say so but that what they say.Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker
When the unvaccinated caramel will stop I wonder. I bet all my money house and job that if an official goes public and say that the flue is over everything will be forgotten.
(of course I don't have money or my own house, well, complicated and I could probably move to then next desk for my job :P )
Assuming the data is right (I haven't looked at it and I'm not qualified to say), then a "mild disturbance" is great but we must remember that this happened with massive world-wide lockdowns, mask wearing, record low flu season (probably due to all the lockdowns and mask wearing), millions of people working from home (less opportunity for things like dying in a car crash), millions of people out of work collecting benefits (so again, not travelling and intermingling as much), vaccines, social distancing, restricted international travel, etc... essentially a massive effort was put into keeping the death rate as low as possible. I think some causes of death were traded for others, and without those efforts, I'm reasonably certain the death rate would have been dramatically higher. Imagine if no restrictive policies were in place and all the "regular" causes of death were added on to the COVID deaths - also with ICUs completely overloaded, I bet there would be a dramatic increase in highly preventable deaths just because of a lack of resources.Quote:
Originally Posted by sapator
Were governments too restrictive? Probably some. Did governments use too light a touch? Probably some. It was always going to be a balancing act, and if the death rate is close to a wash, then I think that leans toward evidence of a reasonable balance. The real proof will be to see if the economy can avoid a major crash in the coming months/years or, if the restrictions will have so-far unrealized consequences for the economy.
Where are you talking about? If you are talking about the US, you have some really bad numbers.Quote:
Originally Posted by sapator
Post 3335.
If you are saying that cdc.com and gov.uk are bad numbers then I hear you. I also say they overrated the covid deaths. Again, also, US, so I will give the benefit of the doubt there but I just got the official the data.
If you have anywhere more official link, glad to do year to year comparison on US cuz they numbers are burred somewhere and gave me a struggle finding the comparisons.
Also jpbro you are not looking at the big picture. Yes lockdown cattled the population but now you have surgeries for other issues going back, more poverty more deaths, lockdown ultimately doing the opposite they intent to, vaccine hell. We have talked so many times on these, I won't try my post on "do nothing" but I would just give you the Sweden example. They did not have lockdowns and the numbers are identical with most of the countries they did have lockdown. Hell we got the strictest lockdown in Greece and currently we have surpassed Sweden on deaths.
Totally missed that thread.
CDC numbers:
Total Deaths 2016: 2,744,248
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db293.htm
Total Deaths 2017: 2,813,503
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db328-h.pdf
Total Deaths 2018: 2,839,205
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db355.htm
Total Deaths 2019: 2,854,838
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db395.htm
Total Deaths 2020: 3,358,814
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7014e1.htm
So, from that you can calculate this:
Change in total deaths:
2016-2017: 69,255
2017-2018: 25,702
2018-2019: 15,633
2019-2020: 503,976
Do you see a difference there?
Keep in mind that COVID didn't really get going in the US until at least March of 2020, so there were between two and three months without COVID deaths. Also, only about 400,000 deaths were attributed to COVID, or perhaps slightly less by the end of 2020 (I don't remember when the 400,000 was reached, it might have been January or February). So, even without COVID, 2020 was a FAR deadlier year than any previous year.
This is the argument against all those, "they would have died anyways" arguments. No, they very clearly wouldn't, unless we come stamped with a 'dispose by' date, and half a million more people than average had an expiration date last year.
So, what was wrong with the data you posted? Nothing, it was just misleading. Half a million extra deaths is still only a relatively modest percentage increase when compared to previous years. It's only a 700% increase over the 2016-2017 increase, though FAR higher when compared to the more recent increases, but it's also only a 17% increase in the death rate over 2019. However, if you then look at deaths per 100,000, it looks pretty tiny because there are so MANY hundreds of thousands it is being spread out over.
Your curve made it look small because it took a large number and spread it over a FAR FAR larger number, which made it look small in comparison. It isn't. COVID has killed hundreds of thousands in the US, unless you can come up with some other explanation for why the total deaths jumped so far so fast last year.
Unlike some in this thread I'm not going to pretend to be an expert on any of this, but maybe the deaths being just about equal between Sweden & Greece despite different lockdown approaches says more about Greece's medical system, the population's willingness to follow the rules, or some other factors.
While we are cherry picking data though, let's compare Sweden & Canada. We've had pretty strict lockdowns and mask mandates in place (with periods where they were lifted and cases & deaths indisputably spiked). We have ~28,000 COVID attributed deaths so far vs. ~15,000 for Sweden. That looks bad at first except that Sweden has about 1/4 our population. All things being equal, should we expect Canada to have 112,000 deaths? If we look at Sweden's death rate instead of just population, it is about 2x ours. Why don't we have 56,000 deaths? In my province, we have about 1.5x Sweden's population, yet ~67% number of deaths (~10,000 for us vs. 15,000 for them). That's a death rate of ~2.25x ours, which means we could expect to have ~22,500 deaths if we took the same approach (all other things being equal, which they are probably not).
To me, looking only at the death numbers, Sweden's approach appears questionable. Perhaps the fact that COVID mostly kills older people was a factor in their decision. Keeping things wide open probably sounded pretty attractive to a government that is paying for the long-term care of its oldest population since it would take some numbers off the books. There's my conspiracy for the day ;)
Anyway, there's no doubt the whole thing is a mess everywhere, but I suspect that we won't know which decisions were right and which were wrong - nor the full impact of those decisions - for years.
Yes, in all honest everything can be interpreted one way or the other.
from what I've read it seems to me that the lockdown was catastrophic and lead to more deaths than anticipated, someone might say the opposite. Also posting the US numbers was just a bonus for dispute since they make no sense but a was curious ion what Shaggy will say.
Use the raw numbers of total deaths, and total change in deaths. Once you get into percent changes, or per thousand (per cent would be per hundred, so why per thousand, why not permilli, or something like that?), you can fiddle with the numbers to make the change look large or small, depending on your objective.
Even if you look at those CDC numbers, there is a cause of death for all of them, and the total death figure is just a sum of all those. One might reasonably argue that a certain death should be shifted from this category to that category, and which category a death is placed in can greatly change how deadly certain things are. The bottom line is the total deaths, though.
In the US, the total deaths SHOULD rise each year, because the population rose, and is aging. However, if you take the worst of the three previous years, you would expect perhaps 70,000 more deaths than 2019, and you got over 500,000. It would be awfully hard to come up with some explanation for that increase that is not COVID.
This is how the true toll of COVID is generally calculated. Different countries report COVID deaths differently, often depending on what message they want to send. Interestingly, they tend not to play games with the total death toll (at least for countries that even track that figure). For that reason, Russia and India can be shown to be grossly under reporting the deaths due to COVID, but then again, so is the US.
That's also why I thought your Greek numbers were so interesting. You don't appear to have an increase in total deaths the way we have.
Though still you're making comparisons anyways...Quote:
Originally Posted by jpbro
I'm quite convinced, that over the next months and years, nearly everyone will catch the disease at least once.
Sweden is just ahead of Canada in terms of "infections over the populace" (percentually).
And they seem to do quite a bit better than Canada, in "handling them, when they happen"
(the case/fatality ratio is 1.3% in Sweden and 1.7% in Canada).
So, you are right - at this point we just cannot know (and shouldn't "judge" too soon)...
Nobody doubts, that the vaccine is lowering the risk of becoming a "fatal case"...
Currently...
Though IMO - it could very well be, that the "more risky, but then much stronger" -
natural immune-response of an unvaccinated person (when non-fatal), might offer
a much better over-all protection over the long haul (say, the next two years)...
in terms of "final fatality-risk", compared to a multi-vaccinated specimen.
Olaf
Yeah, well we are in "chit-chat" so I thought I'd join the conversation after lurking for so long ;) Nobody should be taking me too seriously though, I'm just some guy on the Internet.Quote:
Originally Posted by Schmidt
I agree.Quote:
Originally Posted by Schmidt
I'm not overly concerned with the infection numbers, especially now that most people (here at least) are vaccinated. As you say, it's likely that we'll all catch it eventually. The only thing I'm concerned about is how bad the cases get and how closely together the bad cases are lumped. If there are surges that break the healthcare system, that causes unnecessary death an suffering. If vaccines can reduce the number of people in the hospital (which appears to be the case here at least), then I think that is a good thing. Could there be unintended consequences down the road? Absolutely. Maybe you'll be right and the vaccinated population will spawn a new variant that is worse, but we'll have at least kicked the can down the road and will have time to tweak the vaccine to deal with new variants. I could be very wrong about this, but AFAIK we already do this with the flu vaccine AFAIK - coming up new formulations every year to help reduce the risk of serious illness based on a best guess for what the dangerous variant will be that given season. I already get the flu shot every year (almost - more on that below), so even if I have to start getting a combined CoviFlu or FluVid vaccine one day, then so be it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Schmidt
Yeah, if I sounded like I was defending our healthcare system, I wasn't - it definitely has its problems after decades of spending cuts. So yeah, even though we have fewer deaths overall, you are more likely to die here if you catch COVID.Quote:
Originally Posted by Schmidt
I agree with this too, the only thing I am trying to point out is how the numbers look right here, right now. In my province at least, it's clear that the vaccine is helping with the immediate problem as hospitalizations are dropping and the virus' Rt is now below 1.0. Of course, this can change at any time - I stopped trying to predict the future.Quote:
Originally Posted by Schmidt
Yeah, we'll have to wait and see I guess. All I know is that I missed the flu vaccine one year and happened to catch a reasonably bad case of it. It was not a pleasant experience, so I now err on the side of getting vaccinated. I'm the primary breadwinner for my family, and I don't want to risk getting very ill (or even moderately ill) if I can help it. The vaccine seemed to be the best way to lower that risk. You've made a different calculation, and that's fine. We've both placed our bets and all I hope is that we are both right and that any case of COVID we get is mild and that reasonable immunity is kept for a while. As always, time will tell.Quote:
Originally Posted by Schmidt
No, your antibodies are not better than vaccination: An explainerQuote:
Originally Posted by Schmidt
There's no need to guess. We have ample data on the duration of vaccine protection vs "natural immune response" protection (although this is silly terminology, because vaccine protection *is* natural immune response protection - the vaccine just gives your immune system a high-dose, carefully targeted sample to train against).
As the multiple studies cited in the linked article explain, even if you survive a "natural" case of COVID, you still benefit significantly from vaccination.
Yeah I highly doubt vaccine will give you higher protection.
Just by reading that: Infection does offer some immune protection—but it's unreliable compared with vaccines.
I won't bother reading more.
I wanted to say something.....Heck...What was it....
Ah, yes, as I've said I highly doubt the CDC numbers. As Shaggy pointed out Greece and most of the countries are in a normal graph of increasing deaths but not USA. So either you are something special there doing something wrong or the numbers are furballs. I just mentioned the article so I'll fair on the comparisons. I really started doubting CDC when they posted an article saying that vaccination has higher immunity than natural immunity. I don't know if it is still there. A lot and I mean A LOT of scientist in Greece where bashing that article. Maybe they did it by mistake maybe the devil told them to (pfizer) but that was a bad move.
P.S. Go Italy!!!Go protests! Don't let your dictator vaxb you! And I can call him however I want since he was the main EU banker pawn that deprived us from our income.
It's the latter. If this state is any indication. The CDC is what even the anti-vaxxers tend to use in their propaganda as the gold standard...they just alter the numbers that don't say what they want.Quote:
Originally Posted by sapator
EDIT: Oh, and if you are wondering what special thing we are doing wrong, how about this: We're in the midst of an epidemic that is known to be highly contagious, and we are doing NOTHING. In this state, there is almost no change from the way things were in 2019. Perhaps 5-10% are wearing masks, but that's it, despite nearly 60% not being vaccinated. There may be some large events that are doing something related to the virus, but I haven't seen any. So, what you are seeing is what happens when the response to COVID is to pretend it doesn't exist.
Our vaccination levels aren't that bad, but the rest of it fits.Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker
I've watched mask wearing drop from maybe 95% compliance down to very low levels right now. And that despite the fact that here we are only now approaching our peak for new cases of Delta.
We staved off the worst of it for a long time. But from what I see we should probably expect to reach new infection rates similar to those in the south where Delta had taken off with a vengeance months ago.
While fatigue and belligerence are factors in this, it still seems like the greatest factor is transportation, i.e. movement by the infected.
Licking zombies doesn't matter until the zombie horde arrives.
You don't have to explain to me, how the immune-system reacts to vaccinations.Quote:
Originally Posted by [citation-needed]
Yep, and in the process, learning how to produce a "B-team" (or even only a "C-team") of antibodies -Quote:
Originally Posted by [citation-needed]
(whereas the "untrained natural response" has a higher chance, to come up with an "A-team").
I'm not strictly against vaccinations of any kind - but never took flu-shots my whole life for that reason.
I might start with it, when I get older though (no "fear of jabs" here).
What I cannot understand is, the current "branding and shaming" of those who decided to not get vaccinated.
What the...?
Le them do their own risk-calculations and tolerate decisions which have to do with their own body.
Already a long time ago I've decided for myself, to "donate my organs when I'm dead".
Do I now run around and "evangelize" anybody I encounter, to do the same?
Nope.
Where is the media-outcry in that regard?
- "Help the hospitals to save even more lifes"
- "Become an organ donor, when you're dead"
- "If you don't, then you are an anti-social a-hole"
- "Come on, you don't need your body anymore when you're dead"
Never seen any campaign in public media like that...
Kinda seems that a "dead body" is considered more sacrosanct,
than the rights of your "living, breathing fellow countryman".
Olaf
I'm curious to see the US numbers of deaths in 2021. I can't find a link, logically because 2021 is not yet over but is there a "till now" table?
No, I don't believe there is such a table. If you look at the links I provided, you'll see that even by October, the 2020 data is still listed as provisional, and has a note that it has been updated. I took a look at the update, and it was just changing some language about how they define different racial groups, or something like that, so it's not important, but it does mean that they haven't fully put to bed the 2020 figures, let alone 2021.Quote:
Originally Posted by sapator
Back around the end of January, somebody sent me a propaganda piece that listed the 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020 mortality figures. They stated that the first three were from the CDC, and didn't say where they got their 2020 figures from, but the way they wrote it, they strongly implied that they were also from the CDC. I checked their figures. They were fairly accurate for the first three (though one was rounded to the nearest thousand, for some reason), but the 2020 figures didn't exist at all.
Because of that, I followed when the CDC was putting out numbers, and it appears to be roughly mid to late February of the following year, so we should see 2021 figures around February of 2022. Prior to that, there isn't anything of use. Of course, there MUST be some kind of partial data, but it doesn't appear to be publicized.
Considering how difficult it is to get even less controversial data in a timely manner (number of salmon coming into the Columbia River, for example), for them to get a number out only a month or two after the year ends is doing pretty well.
Recent research seems to indicate exactly the opposite, vaccines give better immunity compared to natural infections - https://arstechnica.com/science/2021...covid-19-shot/Quote:
Originally Posted by Schmidt
The only study mentioned there, with a significant number of specimen (~52,000) says, that this is not the case:Quote:
Originally Posted by PlausiblyDamp
OlafQuote:
In a study conducted at Cleveland Clinic and posted online in June, researchers found that among 52,238 employees, there were no differences in COVID-19 case rates between employees who were unvaccinated but previously infected, vaccinated and previously infected, and vaccinated people with no previous infection. "Individuals who have had SARS-CoV-2 infection are unlikely to benefit from COVID-19 vaccination," the authors concluded.
(Pssst... this is the article I linked in #3404.)Quote:
Originally Posted by Schmidt
As the authors of the article state, that study was conducted when vaccine supplies were limited and before the more-contagious delta variant became the predominant strain. Both of those variables are no longer true.
Don't cherry-pick a single study based on old data. Read to the end of the article to see the clear summary from the most recent studies:
Quote:
Overall, the variable immune responses to infection, lower neutralization against delta, and the clear boost in protection from a very safe, highly effective vaccine make a strong argument for vaccinating the recovered.
For the same reason most live in countries where alcohol consumption is legal but driving under the influence is, to quote you, "branded and shamed." Rights to bodily autonomy are inversely proportional to potential for harming other's right to bodily autonomy.Quote:
Originally Posted by Schmidt
Skepticism is healthy. No one should shame that. Ignoring legitimate sources in favor of preconceived notions is not.
Yes we are saved, vaccines are better than natural immunity! Praise the lord! :p
So I should add to Olaf. First the study has links after links after links, so going in the to reports. The French one concludes:
"These results strongly suggest that vaccination of previously infected individuals is likely to be protective against a large array of circulating viral strains, including the Delta variant."
The second one concludes:
"At present it is unclear how antibody acquisition, particularly for low titer individuals, might afford future immunity to SARS-CoV-2. Further research will be required to determine the minimum threshold of antibody and neutralization activity necessary to accurately predict immunity. Correlation of clinical antibody tests with neutralization activity in this study could serve as a valuable ‘roadmap’ to guide the choice and interpretation of serological tests for SARS-CoV-2."
What they suggest is that a natural immunity may or may not be boosted with vaccination.
Here is a study of Howard Hughes Molecular Immunology:
https://www.rockefeller.edu/news/309...ponses-emerge/
It says that the Betas where highly boosted from the vaccine for 2 months but after that natural immunity took the lead and outperform Mr.Nay.
What mainly suggested in most of the studies is that a mix of natural immunity and a vaccine, might, boost the immunity but it is still unclear, not that vaccines are better than natural immunity.
More studies of natural immunity being better:
https://www.science.org/content/arti...-remains-vital
https://www.news-medical.net/news/20...ccination.aspx
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....24.21262415v1
https://theconversation.com/covid-in...atch-it-167122
Anyhow the argument is so false I can't be bothered answering again. Believe what you like, I still see no reason to vaccinate people below 60-65 but if you feel comfortable and protected then by all means go for it but don't mandate people to do it. I'm talking to our local idiots at the Greek white house, that is actually called "Maximou" in Greece.
So let's think of this for a moment. Companies that had the Mr.Nay technology years ago and never bothered to use it at flu, see the flue as an opportunity, of course there are more in the background on how and why the flueken came to pass but let's skip that. So they are so humanitarian that create vaccines that "save" us, on the other hand they start overpricing the vaccines. People are spread in mainly 2 categories. Vaxbies and Vaxxers. Vaxbies been on the low tide as they are less, think that they posses the ultimate truth and attack the no vaxed (with exceptions), they poses the "we all going to die" stasis and for "our own good" they to mandate the vaccines with highly aggressive policies with green pass and all that BS. systemic media get into the battle. Theories of vaccines be better than natural immunity from CDC go public, lockdown take place but everything mortality related on rising chars on few countries because the rest show almost identical years are suspected to covid. No poverty deaths no suicides no flu nothing just covid. Then some countries go mega vax, Israel, UK,USA , vaccine immunity raise and then fall. 95% great,90%,great,60% great,45% great...Oh snap! Third doses, vaccine immunity is better go do the 3rds.Delta kills equally, no data on the 3rd symptoms but governments open up the 3rds, medical companies to the rescue. Covid still raising but that is the unvax fault, although vaxbies spread equally, infected equally and studies to come will show that they take the upper hand on intensive care but nop, non vax to blame. On the other hand non vaxs do nothing, they don't attack the vaxbirds they don't tell them to go to concentration vaxbie camps, they just protest against mandate but they still get bashed.
That sums the chapter "in the mind of sapator" oh confusing little sap, so sad. But in the end all we want is vaxbies to leave us alone to be free and spread equally.
Not here. Here the Greece astrostups decided to let vaxbies loose. No masks no social distances no lockdown no nothing but when the numbers raise....Oh the non vaxbies to blame.
However there is something that the vaxbies haven't planned, there is the ultimate truth that will swipe the plaque and plots of the vaxpires the vaxbies and the vaxenstains....
Endemic Endemic Endemic.Coming soon to a cinema near you, like it or not and in 3D.
I prolly should explain that the gibberish is in an euthymic mood so I won't get vaxbie bites..Or bytes, maybe in this forum..
I should edit cuz 100% i have wrongs but, meh. if you have made it so far you deserve the ultimate truth. The cure for covid is.....Ssssss-sssyst-eemmm down... Damn so close!
Why do you tell *me* and not PlausiblyDamp?Quote:
Originally Posted by [citation-needed]
I've read it already when you posted it.
It's kind of funny that I'm accused of cherry-picking - when it was clearly the Author of the article who did that.Quote:
Originally Posted by [citation-needed]
(comparing a decent study with two other ones, where the specimen-base was 200 and about 50 respectively)
So, again - the study with a decent amount of "sample cases" came to the conclusion,
that natural occuring immunization is "going as strong as it always does".
No real surprising result there.
Not a single one of the 1359 specimen who were unvaccinated (and "made it through"),
was infected again over the duration of the study.
And sure, the "D-variant" was not in full swing at the time the study was made...
But later studies made in Israel (also based on decently large sample-groups) unsurprisingly come to the same conclusion -
incorporating the D-variant:
https://www.science.org/content/arti...-remains-vital
“It’s a textbook example of how natural immunity is really better than vaccination...”
Which is exactly what you do here -Quote:
Originally Posted by [citation-needed]
shame on you...
Olaf
(Pssst... this is the article I linked in #3415.) LOL. :p
If you care, citation. If you are not uncomfortable with that. You are from USA - UK? I can't get that sudden jump and attack. Not that is anything wrong with that but just saying...You do know that we are mostly insane here,right? :D
Government is taking back the mandatory vax pass for workers.
We must do the same in Greece and in every other country. GO ITALY!!!!!!!!!
Don't care if you usually swear or not, but doing so in this forum is against the AUP. You didn't need to say that in that fashion.
I got a private cease and desist message from a moderator once for trying to mask profanity with things like ** and $$. I guess that doesn't really hide anything :pQuote:
Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker
That's nothing. I got banned once for using the perfectly good word "ignorant" in context.