Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

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Originally Posted by dee-u

I think I may have read somewhere that we don't develop an immunity to it, just like a common cold/flu, we could get it again. I may be wrong tho.

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The issue with the common cold and the flu is that they aren't one thing. The flu is a class of viruses, with different ones each year, which is why flu shots are different every year, since the target keeps moving. The common cold is generally the same, though it is even more diverse. In this case, it's one virus. It will mutate, and get around most immunities, eventually, but you might be safe for years. It all depends on whether or not the mutation is such that our immune system no longer recognizes it as bad.

COVID MAP WARNING !!!

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ha...arn-2020-03-12

https://www.google.com/search?q=hackers+coronavirus+map

Sinus draining started late last night, minor throat tickle started this morning. Not eligible for testing yet. FWIW, in any other circumstance, how I feel now wouldn't even come close to thinking I need to go to the doctor.

Several more positive cases were announced in the county I live in, likely in my city.

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Originally Posted by OptionBase1

Sinus draining started late last night, minor throat tickle started this morning. Not eligible for testing yet. FWIW, in any other circumstance, how I feel now wouldn't even come close to thinking I need to go to the doctor.

Several more positive cases were announced in the county I live in, likely in my city.

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Yeah basically the same. but it's not unusual this time of year. Lots of things in bloom, some years my sinuses really give me grief other years not so much. Right now don't feel any need for testing. Though I wouldn't be surprised if I got the virus, my son works in produce at a grocery store and is in contact with people constantly all day long. He has been staying here lately. Always knew that kid would be the death of me. lol

We now have our first two cases. Interestingly, the local news is saying that both "came in from other states." Well...duh!

I do know what they meant, which is that the people diagnosed had traveled to a different state where they were infected, but does that really matter all that much? If a person carrying the virus passes through and leaves it behind, that's not fundamentally different from a person carrying the virus coming into the state and remaining. Either way, they have had a chance to pass it on.

Anyways, I'm still not worried about it.

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Originally Posted by wes4dbt

Yeah basically the same. but it's not unusual this time of year. Lots of things in bloom, some years my sinuses really give me grief other years not so much. Right now don't feel any need for testing. Though I wouldn't be surprised if I got the virus, my son works in produce at a grocery store and is in contact with people constantly all day long. He has been staying here lately. Always knew that kid would be the death of me. lol

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For me, I'm on day 3.

Day 1 - Insane diarrhea (to put it lightly), mild fever.
Day 2 - No appetite, mild fever.
Day 3 - Moderate sinus drainage, throat irritation. No fever. Oxygen levels normal.

If you asked me how I felt right now, I would say not terrible. Under normal circumstances, this would be a day where if I had something recreational planned, I likely wouldn't go. If I had to go to work, I would probably tough it out.

At this point for me it would be more of a curiosity of do I have it or not. I'm staying home for the foreseeable future anyway, so it wouldn't affect me personally either way. And I can completely understand that with the shortage (still!) of test kits and people who are likely in much, much worse shape than me that I can't get tested right now.

I was a little bit PO'd that I read that the testing of the two NBA teams a few days ago that caught the infected player and caused the season to be postponed used up something like 1/2 of all available testing from the entire state of Utah at the time. I guess I shouldn't be too surprised that there is some wiggle room for jumping these types of lines.

Hard to say what it is but respiratory problems seems to be one of the big indicators. If you think you have the virus you really should go to your doctor and asked to be tested. Won't help you but could help the people trying to contain the virus.

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If you think you have the virus you really should go to your doctor and asked to be tested.

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NO! You should telephone your doctor and ask for advice. You absolutely should not be attending a surgery.

My company is requiring IT to work from home now.

We're still coming into the office. Don't know why, really as we've all got the facility to work from home. I think it's just inertia really.

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Originally Posted by FunkyDexter

NO! You should telephone your doctor and ask for advice. You absolutely should not be attending a surgery.

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That sounds about right.

My state went from one case on Friday, to five today. Things are getting nutty, but I have meetings to attend at the office on both Tuesday and Thursday. I WAS going to go in this afternoon, so that I could go cross country skiing this afternoon. However, the ski area has closed the cross country, which means no grooming, which means a helluva slog, considering we got about a foot of snow, yesterday. It's too warm, anyways, so I guess the skiing is over for the year.

Oh, the humanity!!

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Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker

That sounds about right.

My state went from one case on Friday, to five today. Things are getting nutty, but I have meetings to attend at the office on both Tuesday and Thursday. I WAS going to go in this afternoon, so that I could go cross country skiing this afternoon. However, the ski area has closed the cross country, which means no grooming, which means a helluva slog, considering we got about a foot of snow, yesterday. It's too warm, anyways, so I guess the skiing is over for the year.

Oh, the humanity!!

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I guess it is all down hill now after that...

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Originally Posted by TysonLPrice

I guess it is all down hill now after that...

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Awesome, just awesome!

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Originally Posted by TysonLPrice

My company is requiring IT to work from home now.

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The company I work for is all IT (gov't contractor) so we went from "experimental WFH Friday" to "mandatory WFH until further notice" over the weekend. Fortunately our office has experienced this kind of shut down before (twice, once when the building burned down, and again last year when carpet was replaced) so we're rolling with it... still... it's a pain and makes collaboration at a critical time for our project difficult.

-tg

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I guess it is all down hill now after that...

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Actually, most of the downhill ski areas have closed as well.

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which means no grooming

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Beard getting out of hand again?

Oh, THAT's been true for a LONG time.

This is an interesting site https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

The New Cases Column is updated throughout the day. USA was @ 900 yesterday. Poor Italy is just getting hammered. Makes you worry about what is ahead for the USA, we have five times their population. Could we really see 10,000+ new cases in a day.

China has a more efficient government and the United States has more professional medical experts. However, the lack of testing equipment and medical supplies in the United States is a big problem.

I guess "efficient government" is a pseudonym for a One-party state

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Originally Posted by TysonLPrice

I guess "efficient government" is a pseudonym for a One-party state

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Some truths you may never know. Sometimes, the misunderstanding of the outside world may be a kind of self-protection.

I don't want to play the trumpet for this One-party. I have no interest in politics at all. However, the current political situation in the United States is too bad. One party is full of lies and the other party is extremely weak. However, the United States is still functioning.

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One party is full of lies and the other party is extremely weak.

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I won't argue that...

Yeah, seems a fair assessment of the situation.

The US can't gain 10,000 cases in a day until we have the means to test 10,000 people in a day. At this point, we have no idea what we have because we can barely test people at all, and the tests take days rather than the hours of other countries.

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Originally Posted by dreammanor

One party is full of lies and the other party is extremely weak.

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The true failure is the inability to tell which is which!

-tg

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The US can't gain 10,000 cases in a day until we have the means to test 10,000 people in a day. At this point, we have no idea what we have because we can barely test people at all, and the tests take days rather than the hours of other countries.

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Yeah it's been hard to get a grasp of really is going on with the testing. Trump has just been blowing smoke up our ass and haven't found any really solid material on the numbers being tested and the numbers we're able to process. I have a scary feeling that once we get our testing and processing going full speed we're going to see dramatic jumps in the case numbers.

As of 3:30 pacific time US had 890 new cases today and 18 new deaths. Poor Italy has another 349 deaths. I'm surprised at Italy's Coronavirus death rate, it's almost 8%.

I feel that the mortality rate may be exaggerated. I think we are better at saying how many people die from the virus than how many have been infected. All reports I've read suggest that a large number of people have mild, or no, symptoms. If that's the case, then we are under counting the number infected, but likely not under counting the number of fatalities by much. That will make the mortality rate appear too high. How much too high is a different matter. Perhaps it can account for the apparent high death rate in Italy, perhaps not.

This is a shocking headline,

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Why LA County tested only 110 people for coronavirus in two weeks

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10+ million people????

Testing rules,

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A person must exhibit severe symptoms of respiratory illness and/or have traveled to an affected area or made contact with someone known to be infected, according to Los Angeles Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer

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What area isn't affected? This is just a way to cover the fact that we are way behind on test kits and processing capabilities. Don't like the chances of "flattening the curve". We would be even farther behind if groups like the NBA, NHL, NCAA .... hadn't taken public safety seriously and lead by example. It finally shame the government into action.

As you can probably tell I'm starting to get angry about this situation and our impudent leaders. If I have to actually "shelter in place" for an extended amount of time I'm sure I'll get banned. I'll apologize ahead of time!!!

John Campbell was suggesting (even back in his early videos from January) that the infection stats are lagging indicators while the death tolls are current. So simply dividing them to arrive at a death rate per infection will be a misleading figure.

He tries to take an open and even-handed view in his videos and watching them each day feels like time well spent.

I went in for a weekly appt. with a local hospital wound clinic today and new entrance procedures were in place. You had to use a main entrance where you are greeted by screeners who run down a list of facts, ask some health questions, and take a temperature reading. If you passed you were issued a blank white wristband and allowed through, then escorted to your destination within the facility - though the latter was more about the twisty little passages of the building. While awaiting my actual appointment my sleeve had covered my wristband prompting queries from staff members, suggesting they take it very seriously. Of course they deal with a lot of patients in the most vulnerable groups.

Traffic was way down there. So much so that bored staff pitched in and I had 3 nurses, a volunteer, and a Doc in the room with me at the same time. Very unusual. There was also a great deal of concern expressed to me about my own vulnerability due to my age and health status. I suspect they have a number of long-term patients they see and are feeling uneasy about inevitable high rates of attrition.

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Originally Posted by dilettante

John Campbell was suggesting (even back in his early videos from January) that the infection stats are lagging indicators while the death tolls are current. So simply dividing them to arrive at a death rate per infection will be a misleading figure.

He tries to take an open and even-handed view in his videos and watching them each day feels like time well spent.

I went in for a weekly appt. with a local hospital wound clinic today and new entrance procedures were in place. You had to use a main entrance where you are greeted by screeners who run down a list of facts, ask some health questions, and take a temperature reading. If you passed you were issued a blank white wristband and allowed through, then escorted to your destination within the facility - though the latter was more about the twisty little passages of the building. While awaiting my actual appointment my sleeve had covered my wristband prompting queries from staff members, suggesting they take it very seriously. Of course they deal with a lot of patients in the most vulnerable groups.

Traffic was way down there. So much so that bored staff pitched in and I had 3 nurses, a volunteer, and a Doc in the room with me at the same time. Very unusual. There was also a great deal of concern expressed to me about my own vulnerability due to my age and health status. I suspect they have a number of long-term patients they see and are feeling uneasy about inevitable high rates of attrition.

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Not sure what your trying to say.

That the death rate is lower than it looks, that the hospitals are well staffed and that they care. I'm glad you had a good experience. So you feel Trump's coronavirus response is a 10 out of 10 like he claims. That two weeks from now our hospitals will be able handle all our health issues, no problem.

I'm not trying to put words in your mouth, I'm just not sure what your point is.

It didn't read like making a point to me but it shouldn't have to.

I don't know who John Campbell is (and knowing Dil's politics I'd almost certainly disagree with most of what he says:p) but that the undercounting of infections probably leads to an overestimate of the death rate seems pretty obvious to me.

The rest of the post was an interesting anecdote about the measures the local hospital are taking. I'll be honest, they sound insufficient to me but I'm not sure what more a hospital could do without infrastructural changes.

On the plus side Fox news is no longer saying the out break is a media and democratic attack on Trumps election campaign. Of course now they are lauding Trump for his decisive actions :rolleyes:

We will never know what damage that network caused down playing the news these last few weeks to protect Trump.

Yankees go home !
https://www.eur.army.mil/DefenderEurope/
https://www.eur.army.mil/Newsroom/Re...ope-20-update/
#defendereurope

Here's one from yesterday:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EuWo5lmWuZI

The impatient probably won't make it through these informative videos though.

I'm not sure why people want to politicize this or make wild unfounded guesses and claims about the "politics" of individuals. If I had to express a political position though I'd say I lean toward a strong single payer health care system in the U.S.

I doubt we can make that work until we address our current state of extreme income inequality. I don't think we can achieve any of that by chasing Party banners, the tool they use to keep people powerless.

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Originally Posted by dilettante

John Campbell was suggesting (even back in his early videos from January) that the infection stats are lagging indicators while the death tolls are current. So simply dividing them to arrive at a death rate per infection will be a misleading figure.

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That was my point, as well.

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then escorted to your destination within the facility - though the latter was more about the twisty little passages of the building.

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That's good. That way, if the lights go out, they might be eaten by the grue while you escape.

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So much so that bored staff pitched in and I had 3 nurses, a volunteer, and a Doc in the room with me at the same time. Very unusual. There was also a great deal of concern expressed to me about my own vulnerability due to my age and health status.

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Wait till you see a separate bill from each one.

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Originally Posted by reexre

Yankees go home !
https://www.eur.army.mil/DefenderEurope/
https://www.eur.army.mil/Newsroom/Re...ope-20-update/
#defendereurope

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Don't worry about it, the Yankees, along with every other team, won't be playing for quite a while.

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Originally Posted by dilettante

....a strong single payer health care system in the U.S.

I doubt we can make that work until we address our current state of extreme income inequality. I don't think we can achieve any of that by chasing Party banners, the tool they use to keep people powerless.

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You're not going to get it until you can convince people like me that it's not going to hurt more than it does now. Who is going to pay for it? How is it going to be maintained? What are going to be the checks and balances of the system? Too often the answers to that are unsatisfactory.

-tg

Experts from the Chinese Academy of Military Sciences have made significant progress in vaccine research for the new coronavirus, and clinical trials are about to begin.

Although China has a large number of traditional medical scammers, it is fortunate that China also has modern medical experts.

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Originally Posted by techgnome

You're not going to get it until you can convince people like me that it's not going to hurt more than it does now. Who is going to pay for it? How is it going to be maintained? What are going to be the checks and balances of the system? Too often the answers to that are unsatisfactory.

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I don't think it would be easy or painless. There are too many moving parts to the current system to expect it to be accomplished in one fell swoop.

If it did ever happen it would probably end up as some byzantine system of tradeoffs like we have for Social Security and Medicare today. I don't think there is any practical hope of "making the rich" cover it. So since it'll likely be funded out of payroll taxes we'll probably see fictions like today's "employer's share" of FICA. That's why I also said we'll have to begin by addressing the disproportionate way income gets divided.

Not to mention the existing problems of healthcare and pharma cost control and profiteering.

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Originally Posted by dilettante

I don't think it would be easy or painless. There are too many moving parts to the current system to expect it to be accomplished in one fell swoop.

If it did ever happen it would probably end up as some byzantine system of tradeoffs like we have for Social Security and Medicare today. I don't think there is any practical hope of "making the rich" cover it. So since it'll likely be funded out of payroll taxes we'll probably see fictions like today's "employer's share" of FICA. That's why I also said we'll have to begin by addressing the disproportionate way income gets divided.

Not to mention the existing problems of healthcare and pharma cost control and profiteering.

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Yeah. It's worth moving towards, but there is too much entrenched interest for it to be a "flip the switch" kind of change.

Right now, we DO pay for it, and we pay pretty dearly, we just don't see it. If you have health insurance through your company, that means that the cost to employ you is FAR higher than your gross salary. We often have little idea what that cost is, but the company sure knows. Of course, if we went single payer, they wouldn't have to pay that. Perhaps they'd increase your salary by that much, but probably not.

The pain is still there, though. Any medical issue can result in large numbers of bills, as everybody bills separately. If some are out of network, then the out of pocket costs can be crazy, even if you have good insurance.

Basically, the US system works for people who are healthy, but isn't all that good for people who are not healthy...unless they are quite wealthy, in which case we can pamper like nowhere else.

Got to love how healthy those German's are , their death rate is only 0.26%. That's some quality health care. Sure raised my spirits, I'm old but I'm half German. I wonder if I could seek asylum??? I don't care if the numbers are true or not, I'll take it as good news.

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Originally Posted by wes4dbt

I'm old but I'm half German. I wonder if I could seek asylum???

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If things get crazy enough, perhaps you could apply for insane asylum?

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Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker

If things get crazy enough, perhaps you could apply for insane asylum?

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That ship sailed a long time ago.

More good news. I use to feel bad, like nobody liked me, because no one came by to visit but now I realize that I've been ahead of the curved and just practicing social distancing. Yay me!!!!!!

Some general advice for improving your odds:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nt2CBtukxtE

....

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Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker

If things get crazy enough, perhaps you could apply for insane asylum?

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You would have to be nuts to do that...

I guess they're finally getting serious about testing. New Cases, Mon @ 900, Tue @ 1800, Wed @ 2900. Not a very flat curve but I didn't expect one at first. I'm hoping for next week. Though considering what's going on in Florida, I'm not to sure what to expect. The governor of Florida is a ....... Better stop there.

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I'm not sure why people want to politicize this or make wild unfounded guesses and claims about the "politics" of individuals

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Most of the political links you post, I disagree with. I feel like I ought to be forgiven for extrapolating that they represent your own politics. The medical vids you've been posting seem bang on the money to me, though. I just wasn't aware that his name was John Campbell.

"Stunning coincidences"
Published 26-Feb-2020
English Subtitles.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PGVBGh32f-s

So China's reporting zero new cases in Wuhan. End in sight? Let's hope so.

There have been a number of posts where it has been said that politics should not be brought up during discussions of the current crisis. I agree wholeheartedly that in times like these pointing political fingers doesn’t help anything. But to understand how we got here it is important, especially when the reasons are political, to understand that aspect of how we got here.

Anyone that pays attention to current politics is aware that Trump and Fox news are tied at the hip. One of the Fox commentators, Sean Hannity, is sometimes called the “unofficial chief of staff”. From the onset of the epidemic Trump and Fox downplayed and attacked the “liberal” media as what they saw as an assault on Trump’s reelection. Any seriuos reporting of the virus spreading was minimized. It wasn’t until the crisis affected Trump’s calling card, the stock market, that he really started paying attention. States had to step up their efforts because because of the lack of federal action. Now that Trump decided to get involved Fox news is singing his praises as a decisive leader.

Where this plays in is with Trump and Fox news downplaying the onset of crisis as a political attack it diminished the seriousness of the virus. Polls show a clear distinction between republicans, democrats, and moderates. Because Fox news is the main echo chamber for republicans polls show a majority of republicans doubt the seriousness of the outbreak.

So between Trump only being able to see that world as only what affects him, his attacks on the legitimacy of the media (fake news), and Fox news constantly feeding his ego our governments approach to the crisis was purely political. That is, how does it affect Trump and his reelection.

So I would agree going forward we are better off leaving out politics. But it should be kept in mind, in my opinion, that republican/Trumpian politics got us off to a bad start and we are playing catch up because of it.

The virus response was highly politicized in this country, and still is. I live in a strongly Republican state. The governor has been out front on the virus, but he's been very careful in what he says about the president, and the same has been true of other governors (Ohio, for example). One characteristic of Trump is that if he feels he has been hit, he hits back. If you criticize him, he'll retaliate. It makes for a less effective response, since Republican leaders have to be careful not to say anything that could be seen as criticism of the president, including criticism of federal responses, lest he attacks them rather than fixing whatever the problem was.

It is starting to crush small businesses around me and hurting many people I Know. I'm feeling so fortunate I can work from home and earn a check. Government relief isn't going to help the "pay check to pay check" folks by this Friday. It sucks and is getting worse. This is just getting started.. I feel bad for so many people around me. We are day to day experiencing a world history event BIG TIME!

Edit:

As I read what I posted I realized I left out all the thousands of people and events coming together to help everybody :p

There are thousands of examples of people coming together. NBA stars paying the laid off arena workers, food banks and donations on overdrive, restaurants packing up food and delivering, hundreds of feel good stories.

I guess you cannot have dark with out light..

When our school district shut down, they said that all staff would still continue to get paid as if they were working their full schedule - that includes teachers, custodial, drivers, cafeteria, etc.
The drivers in turn are offering to drive the buses to various locations to help distribute food, learning packets, WIFI, and other school supplies as needed.

One local cafe here is offering free lunches for school aged kids during their lunch hours... just come by and pick one up...

-tg

I'm just curious, how are people handling the various shut downs? Our company went on full-on mandatory WFH mode this past Monday. Our branch was open for Mon & Tues, just long enough for people to come in and get their stuff to take home. I have mixed feelings about it.
Pro: No commute - I'm not having to deal with the stupid drivers out there.
Con: No commute - I'm getting way behind my podcast listening - I can't listen to words when I'm working, so listening to podcasts while working doesn't work for me.
Pro: I'm in charge of the temperature.
Con: Big fat window behind me catches all the southern exposure sun says "Think again buddy" ...
Pro: Every day is bring you dog to work day.
Con: Cats seem to think this applies to them too. Unfortunately they are even less help than the dogs are, and seem to be active about trying to be in the way.
Pro: I have a decent dedicated desk area that I can setup and work reasonably comfortably
Con: Big fat window behind me catches all the southern exposure sun says "Think again buddy" ...
Pro: I'm an introvert, I've been practicing this for my entire life...
Con: Yeah, I love my family and all but I got to the office to get away from them, now where the heck do I go? Ever see the The Shinning?

On a more serious note, I do have to be careful... I'm not in the younger bracket, but I'm not in the older susceptible category either, close... but I also have existing conditions which sound like makes me a candidate to take it serious (diabetes for starters)... so while I'm not panicking, I'm definitely being careful...

-tg

Our company seems to have gone to mandatory *** mode, as well. We had a group of people that I work closely with who all went to a meeting...except me, I didn't go. It seemed like a bad idea at the time, and it has proven to be. Somebody was sick. The tests were done, but have yet to come back after four days, so nobody knows whether the person had COVID or something else, so everyone who went to the meeting is quarantined.

Meanwhile, we aren't really working from home or not. We're in the middle, so I show up a few days a week, but might move to full time at home next week. It's just weird.

EDIT: I was wondering whether or not that TLA would get past the censor. It wasn't WFH, but two of the letters were there.

Wow, poor Italy, 793 new deaths today. Hope we're not on that trajectory. It's just hard to tell how much it's spreading. Because of shortage of tests, LA County is telling doctors not to bother with testing. It's strange, you know it's real but it's not visible yet to most of us.

EDIT: Just checked, today new cases in Italy 6,557, in US 6,728. More new cases than anywhere else in the world. And how is it possible that India has a TOTAL of 332 cases. There's a billion people there, maybe they just don't test.

Just went to home mode. They say it's for two weeks paid, but it could get extended longer.

What sucks, where my wife works, a patient tested positive for Corona, but no one knew this person was sick since arrival two weeks ago! We were on vacation during this time, but my wife returns to the hospital this coming Monday!

There'a a big difference between the Flu pandemic of 1918 vs Corona of 2020, specially in the photos below. Look at the difference in ward set-ups!

Iowa State University, 1918:
Attachment 175497
* Pillows on alternate sides of each cot
* Sheet wall separating each cot
* Same amount of space between cots
* No tripping hazzards
* No unnecessary stuff next to the cots

Yale University, photo from a day ago:
Attachment 175499
* Pillows on same side between cots
* No barrier separating the cots
* Alot of wasted space that could've provided more space between cots
* Tight squeeze between cots turns cable into tripping hazzard
* Unnecessary folding chairs next to each cot
It's another object in need of decontamination every day. There will be no family visits with so many infected people in a gym. Medical staff wont sit, bringing themselves within grab reach of a frantic patient, or their faces closer to coughing patients, even if they're wearing masks. Patients have their cots to sit on, so there is no need for folding chairs.

I'd take today's conditions over 1918 anytime...they didn't even have penicillin back then.

Italy has experienced a downturn in new cases. With Wuhan reporting no new cases it is starting to sound like this virus burns itself out fairly quickly... as long as people actually take the right measures and stay as isolated as possible (completely isolated if you're showing symptoms).

Stay home and stay safe. About the only thing you should be going out for, at this point, is to pick up groceries.