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Re: Post election prediction
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Living in the deep south I can tell you with no uncertainty that this exists. I have met actual neo-Nazis, not those the corporate media claim to be neo-Nazis, but the real deal. They are very much pro-Israel but antisemitic. They are also very pro-Christian but anti-Catholicism. They are very much in the minority, but they do in fact exist, at least to the anecdotal evidence I can provide.
I believe it exists, even where I live.
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One of the last fist fights I got it was because some guy wanted a girl I wasn't even dating but like me. He kept provoking me, trying to start a fight, but I refused to entertain him. Next thing I know, I'm coming to, face down on the concrete with a big dude with a huge swastika neckerchief grinning down at me. He had clearly been the one who knocked me down. I don't know how, but I was able to leave without any other trouble other than being refused to grab my sliders (which apparently came off when I got knocked down), but I do remember being absolutely terrified when I left.
Sounds more like an ambush than a fight.
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Edit - After rereading your post, I might have misunderstood what you meant by "it's not a subject that gets talked about much". Was it the outsized leverage that groups like the AIPAC have or those who are pro-Israel but antisemitic?
Well, my statement was pretty vague. In Central California we have plenty of other minorities to talk about. The Jewish population here is so small most people don't pay it much attention. I just looked and there's an estimated 10 to 15K in a population of over 6.5million. Southern California has a higher density.
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Re: Post election prediction
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Sounds more like an ambush than a fight.
"Ambush" pretty much describes most pup fights TBH. In my late teens/early 20s, being tall, skinny and having long hair was enough to get me randomly punched more times than I can count.
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Re: Post election prediction
I wonder if we'll ever get any solid intelligence report on how effective the strike on Fordow was? I was surprised there was only one strike. The GBU-57 maximum penetration through soil is 200ft and Fordow is suppose to be 260+ feet under ground. There is also the question of where Iran's enriched uranium was located. All we've got so far is Trump and his gang claiming obliteration because the planes hit their targets and attacking anyone who questions their claim. I don't put total faith in the leaked intelligence report but that's all we got so far. Except for some pictures of bomb craters.
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I don't get this, I'm probably missing something.
Probably a reference to Gavin Newson but I'm with you, I don't get the point. My guess is it's meant to be some sort of insult.
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Re: Post election prediction
Exposing more of the abundant hypocrisy of the left:
https://youtu.be/Cfj5py3BGjs?si=R9dr68K9aek020dQ
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Re: Post election prediction
It's sort of strange to be against something that benefits you. The current "big bill" could benefit me by not taxing social security but it would do that and various other thing by adding trillions to the deficit. I think our countries debt is already to high. So I'd like to see a bill with balancing the budget in mind.
I'm pretty certain I'll be dead before our debt overwhelms us but I can't ignore the long term effects of our growing debt. Maybe if I didn't have so much family I'd feel differently, I got three younger generations already. lol
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Re: Post election prediction
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Originally Posted by
wes4dbt
It's sort of strange to be against something that benefits you. The current "big bill" could benefit me by not taxing social security but it would do that and various other thing by adding trillions to the deficit. I think our countries debt is already to high. So I'd like to see a bill with balancing the budget in mind.
I'm pretty certain I'll be dead before our debt overwhelms us but I can't ignore the long term effects of our growing debt. Maybe if I didn't have so much family I'd feel differently, I got three younger generations already. lol
So much is upside down there.
It doesn't repeal the income tax on Social Security, that got pared down to a somewhat larger tax exemption for retirees.
The deficit will be larger, but nothing like it would if Dems got their way.
It also deals with a ton of stuff like keeping the existing income tax cuts you have enjoyed for years.
My biggest gripe, and I hope the provision has already been deleted, is to sell off vast swaths of Nation Park lands to developers. With the proviso that these lands can be developed to construct fatcat communities and resorts along the lines of Lake Tahoe, Jackson Hole, Sun Valley, Aspen, Vale, Beverly Park, etc.
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Re: Post election prediction
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Originally Posted by
dilettante
The deficit will be larger, but nothing like it would if Dems got their way.
Nope, and here's some data for you to back that up:
https://www.thebalancemoney.com/us-d...y-year-3306306
If one wanted to be truly partisan, one could point out that the last time there was a surplus was under Clinton. Of course, there were numerous reasons for that, some of which were non-partisan (politics has nothing to do with it) and others that were bipartisan (both parties were responsible).
Still, the simple fact is that the highest deficit increases came about due to spending to get out of a fiscal hole. The deficits dropped in good times...usually. That is about to end.
Attempting to say that it would be even worse if we had not done what we did is often a valid position to take. Not in this case, though, because deficit spending to dig out of some economic hole is much different from deficit spending when on a peak.
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It also deals with a ton of stuff like keeping the existing income tax cuts you have enjoyed for years.
I agree that it deals with a ton of stuff. You then mentioned ONLY the one piece that people actually like, and I would guess that most people don't know what difference that tax cut made. For me, it was pretty insignificant, and I was probably pretty representative at the time (median income, all on a W-2).
Of course, since nobody really knows what's in the bill, and it's STILL changing hour to hour, who's to say?
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Re: Post election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
dilettante
So much is upside down there.
It doesn't repeal the income tax on Social Security, that got pared down to a somewhat larger tax exemption for retirees.
The deficit will be larger, but nothing like it would if Dems got their way.
It also deals with a ton of stuff like keeping the existing income tax cuts you have enjoyed for years.
My biggest gripe, and I hope the provision has already been deleted, is to sell off vast swaths of Nation Park lands to developers. With the proviso that these lands can be developed to construct fatcat communities and resorts along the lines of Lake Tahoe, Jackson Hole, Sun Valley, Aspen, Vale, Beverly Park, etc.
What is upside down there?
I said the "big bill" would benefit me but I'm still not in support of it because it adds to much deficit. Whether it's no tax on Social Security or a higher exemption amount, it would benefit me and it adds to the national debt an amount I feel is unhealthy for our countries future.
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Re: Post election prediction
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Originally Posted by
wes4dbt
I said the "big bill" would benefit me but I'm still not in support of it because it adds to much deficit. Whether it's no tax on Social Security or a higher exemption amount, it would benefit me and it adds to the national debt an amount I feel is unhealthy for our countries future.
Whoa! Pump the brakes! Now you're suddenly a deficit hawk?
No, there is a medical term for this: Trump Derangement Syndrome.
What next? A renewed embracing of Elon Musk? :p
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Re: Post election prediction
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Originally Posted by
dilettante
Whoa! Pump the brakes! Now you're suddenly a deficit hawk?
No, there is a medical term for this: Trump Derangement Syndrome.
What next? A renewed embracing of Elon Musk? :p
No need to pump the brakes. I'm not suddenly anything. I've ben consistently bothered by our nations rising deficit. Both Reps/Dems have been pushing this past my comfort zone for a long time.
As for Musk, you can't renew something that you never had.
You want to bring Trump into the conversation so the syndrome is yours.
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The syndrome is always theirs. It always was.
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Originally Posted by
wes4dbt
You want to bring Trump into the conversation so the syndrome is yours.
I must have misread the thread topic. :rolleyes:
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The syndrome is always theirs. It always was.
Honestly, I don't think I've ever seen as much projection as I see from the MAGA crowd. Every accusation is an admission.
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Re: Post election prediction
Don't get me wrong here, but politics have become a sick joke at this point. I was an original supporter of MAGA, and it is to where their priorities are backwards. People in America are still struggling working paycheck to paycheck barely getting by maximizing credit card debt just to pay for groceries and can't even buy a house. The job market is collapsing under our feet as 80% if companies now use ATS resume bots and some even use AI software for zoom interviews to check how many times you blink, if you appear nervous, if you maintain a smile, etc. It is designed to red flag potential candidates. At the same time ghost jobs remain over 50% while H1B Visa recipients are favored over actual Americans for cheap labor. At the same time, AI is replacing entry level work (which already require 3 to 5 years experience) making getting a college degree near worthless. People are applying to 100s if not 1000s of jobs just to get an interview these days. Meanwhile we have an entire of generation of gen alpha raised by iPads who are unable to read, write, spell, or do math, which is at 40% right now. One honor student girl in Connecticut gradutated high school with straight A's is now sueing the school because she still can't read or write. Combine that with the job market collapse, a soon to be housing market collapse, and the rise of AI, and we are doomed as a society 2 to 5 years from now. I haven't even gotten around to talk about humanoid robots that will soon replace repetative work in the workforce. None of this is being addressed in congress, the senate, or the presidency. Nor is it a priority. Instead the primary objective is to deport every illegal alien even those who are trying to do it legally, and shrink the size of government. That is why I am becoming a hacker. Preparing for the dystopian future.
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^Yeah, I feel you on a lot of that. Trouble is that, when faced with all those obstacles, most people will go look for acknowledgement of the problem rather than looking for a sensible solution to it. To be fair, this is human nature so I don't blame them but it leads to bad outcomes either way.
This is at the root of populist grievance politics. Politicians like Trump (and we've got plenty of our own over here - it's not an American thing) are REALLY good at performatively acknowledging and validating the problems people face - much better than the Dems to be honest. Trouble is they really don't actually have solutions to those problems. So the next step in the play book is to identify some amorphous "other" and attack it. In the main the other being identified at the moment is immigrants. Whip up a bit of resentment and the next thing you know you've got a populace who are happy to see people locked up in foreign torture prisons and alligator alcatrazes without even being given due process to see if they've done anything wrong. The cruelty's is fine as long as it's happening to them, not me. (Though Trump is now talking about "denaturalising" US citizens so Them is becoming Me very, very rapidly).
I don't have a solution but I'd start with this: If a politician acknowledges your grievance, that's great. But don't stop there. Look really closely at what they're proposing to do about it and apply some common sense to that solution. If they're telling you the reason you can't afford a house is immigrants... in a largely empty nation built and almost entirely populated by immigrants... you're probably being fed a line. If they're telling you that gay marriage will lead to the moral collapse of society... when literally nobody is trying to force you to marry a dude... you're probably being fed a line. If they're telling you that they're going to deport the criminal immigrants who don't come in "the right way"... then start picking them up at the courthouse during their immigration hearings... you're probably being fed a line. And if they're telling you that people on minimum wage are lazy... even though they're working multiple jobs... you are probably being fed a line.
I think you correctly identified a lot of the genuine problems when you touched on AI. I'd expand it to "automation" though. You want to know why manufacturing jobs aren't coming back to the US, it's not immigrants, or off-shoring. It's automation. The factories will come back with high enough tariffs, but the jobs won't.
The other major problem I'd identify is wealth inequality. You have to go back to pre-war era to find wealth inequality as large as it is today.
The other problem is wealth inequality
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Re: Post election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Jacob Roman
That is why I am becoming a hacker. Preparing for the dystopian future.
Hackers are being replaced by AI.
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Re: Post election prediction
I do think you've touched on some issues. There are whole fields that aren't quite affected by AI, yet (or at least not in a negative way), but programming isn't one of them.
If I look back at my career, I did everything "right". I went to a good college, on to grad school, entered the work force, bought a house, and had a fine career working alongside good people. If somebody were to attempt to follow the same path I took, with the same schools and the same jobs (the exact same jobs still exist, though my current one may go away once I leave), they wouldn't be able to do it. They would leave college with at least four times the amount of debt that I had, so they'd be much more financially stressed for a whole lot longer. That would mean delaying buying a house. The job I had when I bought my house would pay twice as much, though, but that won't matter because my house has quadrupled in price, so even with that higher pay, they wouldn't be able to buy my house.
The second piece would be health care. We pay more, and for that we don't live longer.
There is vastly more financial stress currently, regardless of how AI will change things. Neither party is attempting to positively address these issues. One party is following the autocrat playbook by finding a scapegoat and blaming all the stress people feel on that group. The other party seems to be mostly running on the platform of, "we're better than them", without putting anything forwards. Opinion polls show that people don't like Trump, they like the Republicans much less than Trump, and the Democrats even less. Fortunately, there is a whole lot of money ready and waiting to attack anybody who proposes an actual solution.
I would say that the only way this logjam breaks is through either a second Great Depression, or a third Great War. Technically, those are roughly the same in that either one would be a traumatic rupture so severe that people simply couldn't continue with the status quo. The status quo is very resilient.
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Re: Post election prediction
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Originally Posted by
Shaggy Hiker
Hackers are being replaced by AI.
Then I will hack AI anywhere and have it do my bidding :bigyello:. On a serious note we must also prepare for a whole generation of kids who were raised on tech who will soon enter this disfuctional work force. They can't read. They can't write. They can't do simple math. They can't read an analog clock. They are several grades below in their abilities. They can't watch a vieeo longer than 10 seconds without swiping to the next one. Thet can't pay attention or comprehend. And teachers are so frustrated that thet are quitting in record numbers and may get replaced by AI to fill the void. So when they want a job one day, how are they going to fill out a job application or make a resume? How will they go to college if our public school system was dumbed down for the sake of diversity equity and inclusion? We are doomed as a society and Idiocracy is becoming more of a documentary faster than ever before.
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For example, Shaggy's statement that you'd find yourself in much more debt attending the same college and graduate school he attended. I agree that's the case, but I tend to think it is because of federal student aid and direct subsidies to the schools. Not to mention regulatory burdens that mostly legacy schools can afford to maintain which drive out competition and have the side effect of forcing the schools to invest in unnecessary infrastructure.
During my senior year in college, the college announced that the tuition for the next year of incoming students would jump by $2,000, from $14K to $16K. The stated reason was that it put the cost in line with other colleges that they wanted to be compared to.
Whether motivations have changed since then or not, I can't say. I can certainly say that my old college has some mighty nice facilities, these days. If you are setting your tuition based not on need, but on the desire to be in a certain price range with a set of other schools, then you are certainly not basing your budgets on value pricing. Still, what they were stating explicitly at the time was that the prices were not set on any consideration other than appearing to be in a certain price range, regardless of what you got for that price.
The last time I looked, which was a couple years back, the cost was around $60K per year, nominally. I figured that few, if any, people actually paid that price, so I tried to figure out the average cost per student. As I expected, that was much lower, but still in the mid-30K range. Federal student aid and other scholarships were the reason for the difference between the sticker price and the actual average cost. That is consistent with the idea that they set tuition rates based on how they wanted to appear, rather than actual cost. The sticker showed what they wanted it to show, the actual amount paid was normally much lower.
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we must also prepare for a whole generation of kids who were raised on tech who will soon enter this disfuctional work force.
I'm less pessimistic on that. They can't do those things because they don't need to do those things. To put it another way, how proficient are you with a slide rule? Do you know you sin and cosin tables? I'm willing to bet the answers no because you grew up with calculators that did it for you. It's certainly a no from me. My parents, on the other hand, knew that stuff.
Technology moves on and does lots of stuff for us - and then we forget how to do those things. That's not a new phenomenon.
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Re: Post election prediction
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Originally Posted by
FunkyDexter
Do you know you sin
Yes. Yes I do!
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Re: Post election prediction
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How will they go to college if our public school system was dumbed down for the sake of diversity equity and inclusion?
If you do some research on why our children reading and writing skilling are declining you wont find that reason listed. But you can easily find people/groups spreading that misinformation. People seem eager to accept DEI or immigrants is the cause of their problems. Not that our past DEI and immigration policies didn't have its fleas.
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There is vastly more financial stress currently, regardless of how AI will change things. Neither party is attempting to positively address these issues. One party is following the autocrat playbook by finding a scapegoat and blaming all the stress people feel on that group. The other party seems to be mostly running on the platform of, "we're better than them", without putting anything forwards. Opinion polls show that people don't like Trump, they like the Republicans much less than Trump, and the Democrats even less. Fortunately, there is a whole lot of money ready and waiting to attack anybody who proposes an actual solution.
I would say that the only way this logjam breaks is through either a second Great Depression, or a third Great War. Technically, those are roughly the same in that either one would be a traumatic rupture so severe that people simply couldn't continue with the status quo. The status quo is very resilient.
That's an interesting assessment. Scapegoats have always been popular but it does seem to be the winning strategy currently.
I can see the financial stress up close. My son works hard but can't come close to buying a house, would struggle just to rent a one bedroom apartment. The days of general labor individuals reaching middle class seem gone for now. In my area we use to have a lot of factory jobs and even jobs like grocery clerk could get you to lower middle class. Not now. The biggest expense here is our housing market. You got to pay $1,800 month for a two bedroom apartment. So, you need to be making $30+ hr. And those jobs are hard to find. Many of those businesses/jobs have moved away and reopened paying lower wages.
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The other major problem I'd identify is wealth inequality. You have to go back to pre-war era to find wealth inequality as large as it is today.
You need to be more specific, there's been lots of wars. lol
It took strong unions to force employers to start paying workers higher wages. Those days seem to be gone for now. Unions are weak, if not outright corrupt.
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Re: Post election prediction
I would say that most of the cost of living in this area is not significantly higher now than when I moved here...with the massive exception of housing. Food went up a bit, and gas is somewhat higher, but not all that much higher. We still have some of the cheapest electricity in the country, and water isn't a particular issue, but housing is not affordable.
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Re: Post election prediction
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Originally Posted by
Shaggy Hiker
I would say that most of the cost of living in this area is not significantly higher now than when I moved here...with the massive exception of housing. Food went up a bit, and gas is somewhat higher, but not all that much higher. We still have some of the cheapest electricity in the country, and water isn't a particular issue, but housing is not affordable.
That seems to have become a very common problem and I don't know why. I blamed the large number of commuters moving to our area from the much higher priced SF Bay area and Silicon Valley. But it seems to be a wide spreading issue.
Edit:
Big brother must have been reading my post. After I posted I checked out the news and this was one of the first listing. lol
https://finance.yahoo.com/personal-f...184935469.html
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Re: Post election prediction
How much of this sour attitude is by region and lifestyle?
Sure, for a long time now some regions and some groups lived high on the hog. Some of it came from exploitation of cheap illegal labor. Some came from wetting their beaks in unbalanced globalized trade as middlemen and bookkeepers. Some came from lavish Federal and State spending on busywork and gilding lilies.
Much of this came directly at the expense of other groups and other regions. Much of it through internal neo-colonial exploitation and the draining of wealth by excessive taxation that lined the pockets of corporations and investors while feeding some of it back out to designated "winners" elsewhere.
The worm has turned. Unfairness is being reversed. The free ride is over.
As CNN puts it: "Trump has win after win after win."
The new jobs report is amazing. The prior month was revised as much better than previously reported.
Where is this stock market crash? The recession/depression? The rise in inflation? Expanding military quagmires? Trump's dwindling popularity?
They don't exist.
If you think they do, you are simply playing The Three Monkeys. I don't know how else you manage to avoid reality.
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You need to be more specific, there's been lots of wars. lol
Fair point. Certainly things were pretty rough before Thermopylae.
I was referring to the two world wars. Labour movements really started to take hold post WW1 and post WW2 saw a more generalised drive for equality called the "post war consensus". Before the wars inequality and poverty was horrendous (think Victorian and Edwardian stereotypes). From the late 40s through to the 70s and into the early 80s we had historically low levels of inequality and poverty - mainly because our whole societies bought into that being a worthwhile goal to pursue.
I'd say the decline started in the 80s but it's arguable. Certainly it got turbo charged by the economic crash in the early millennium and we're now back to a state that feels pretty close to those Victorian and Edwardian times again when the ultra wealthy hold a grotesque proportion of our resources and essentials like healthcare and housing have become aspirational for the rest of us.
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Re: Post election prediction
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Originally Posted by
dilettante
How much of this sour attitude is by region and lifestyle?
Sure, for a long time now some regions and some groups lived high on the hog. Some of it came from exploitation of cheap illegal labor. Some came from wetting their beaks in unbalanced globalized trade as middlemen and bookkeepers. Some came from lavish Federal and State spending on busywork and gilding lilies.
Out here, it would be the former. The dairy and ag interests in this state have certainly benefitted from migrant labor, and doubtless have looked the other way when it comes to the legal status of at least some of that labor.
And EVERYBODY has benefitted from that in the form of cheaper produce and cheaper housing. Housing costs are rising anyways, but they wouldn't rise slower if the labor costs were increased.
So, we have all benefitted, including the migrants, who were there because they made much better wages than they would have at home. Yes, it could have been better, but what it will now be is more expensive. Even Trump is trying to find cover to look the other way when it comes to migrant farm workers. Those aren't jobs that US citizens want to do. They are short term, mobile, and often grueling. The end result will possibly be more automation or more legal migration, but either way it will mean higher prices, which won't impact the rich. After all, the rich don't care about prices for food and the very rich don't even notice.
As for the market crash, we had it until TACO Trump backed down. It has recovered...back to where it was before he did anything, and now the market is banking on him always backing down. Might work. He certainly has a track record in that regard, by now.
Meanwhile, there are ominous signs in the economy. Those job gains were in just two sectors, one of which was government (state and local only, of course). The dollar has been sliding steadily all year, and is now at the worst it has been in several decades. I've heard that it is the weakest it has been since the 70s, but that might not be right. What's going on there? Nothing that Trump has done is necessarily driving that, and it started before he actually got into office. Lastly, the most recent sale of treasury bonds was unenthusiastic.
The US economy has been strong since the recovery from the 2008 recession. It wouldn't even have wobbled had Trump not been elected. He's there now, though, and the warning signs are pretty evident. He's backed down on tariffs, and will probably continue to do so. That should dampen inflation risk. The world is beginning to doubt that the US can pay it's debts, though, and that would be really bad news for a whole lot of people....though not me, I think. I believe I'd end up benefitting from that.
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for a long time now some regions and some groups lived high on the hog.
Gotta tell you that from the rest of the worlds perspective that region is the whole of the US and the group is all of your citizens. I don't think you realise how privileged you are. You have among the highest purchasing power by capita in the world.
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Re: Post election prediction
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Before the wars inequality and poverty was horrendous (think Victorian and Edwardian stereotypes). From the late 40s through to the 70s and into the early 80s we had historically low levels of inequality and poverty - mainly because our whole societies bought into that being a worthwhile goal to pursue.
This may be true but how does society stop thinking it's a worthwhile goal?? My only thought is we became to entitled and forgot the work it takes to keep our equality, so we continually lost ground.
I doubt the answer is that simple, but it feels like a part of the problem.
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Re: Post election prediction
Post-WWII Europe has been subsidized and given every chance to throw off its imperialism and socialism to become stable modern societies and economies.
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Originally Posted by
FunkyDexter
Tell that to Hilary's Losers:
https://youtu.be/BHnJp0oyOxs?si=tFbNv1Sd0vRwUoXu
You sound maliciously envious.
The Æsop for Children: The Dog in the Manger
A Dog asleep in a manger filled with hay, was awakened by the Cattle, which came in tired and hungry from working in the field. But the Dog would not let them get near the manger, and snarled and snapped as if it were filled with the best of meat and bones, all for himself.
The Cattle looked at the Dog in disgust. "How selfish he is!" said one. "He cannot eat the hay and yet he will not let us eat it who are so hungry for it!"
Now the farmer came in. When he saw how the Dog was acting, he seized a stick and drove him out of the stable with many a blow for his selfish behavior.
Do not grudge others what you cannot enjoy yourself.
I get it. Freedom is your "hay." But barking that the rest of us should not have it just because it cannot nourish you is unreasonable.
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Re: Post election prediction
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People my age recognize that you can’t continue having these bloated spending bills AND have a sound country 10/20 years from now.
I'm not clear whether you are identifying with the "Musk" camp or the Communists of the "Mamdani" camp. Or maybe the "Rand Paul" camp?
I'm not pro-deficit and never have been. Of course there is a great deal to dislike about this OBBB reconciliation bill that has gone into law. However it contains some really big and important items, and without the bill's compromises those would have been lost.
I have no clue where you are getting the idea Trump's support is "crumbling." Every poll and every measure is trending his way by leaps and bounds. The only place he's "hurting" is with a few die-hard lunatic fringe constituencies. Even CNN reports this.
He is doing so well now that June's party voter registration counts for Pennsylvania show that the State has flipped solidly "red" and you can bet your bottom dollar that's for Trump and not the Romneycrats. Iowa already flipped, and Wisconsin is expected to follow suit soon. Michigan likely already has as well, but party registration isn't required here so it is harder to gauge externally of an election.
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But barking that the rest of us should not have it
I didn't say you should not have it. I said you don't seem to recognise that you've got it. Nice straw man you built there, though.
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My only thought is we became to entitled and forgot the work it takes to keep our equality, so we continually lost ground.
I would say that is pretty much it. I'm not sure I'd have have called it entitled so much a duped.
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Re: Post election prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by
FunkyDexter
I didn't say you should not have it. I said you don't seem to recognise that you've got it.
My point is that "it" was earned and that "it" was ripped away and given to the undeserving (with a fat cut taken off the top). This is the nature of globalism. It rides on the backs of many to benefit the few.
It treated the heartland of this country as a colony to exploit. That nightmare is over. It is over for our coastal elites, and it is over for Europe and the UK. If things go well it might also someday be over for Israel.
Clean up your messes. Roll up your sleeves and stand on your own feet. We bailed your asses out of two World Wars, dealt with your messes in southeast Asia. Then we bribed you to keep you from starting another World War for the past 70 years.
Enough is enough. You have no moral or economic authority to tell Americans how to vote or how to live. British Imperialism is done. Start attending to your own garden, before you find yourself living under either Sharia Law or Neo-Sovietism. The choice is yours.
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Re: Post election prediction
Very long recorded livestream, but even the first few minutes help demonstrate the real breadth of Trump's current support among diverse groups:
https://www.youtube.com/live/44aIgCz...qX92bNsNxwu3aN
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Re: Post election prediction
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I have no clue where you are getting the idea Trump's support is "crumbling." Every poll and every measure is trending his way by leaps and bounds. The only place he's "hurting" is with a few die-hard lunatic fringe constituencies. Even CNN reports this.
I have no clues what polls your talking about. I can't find any that supports that claim.
Quote:
The Economist shows that 42% of people are favorable of Trump and 54% are unfavorable of him, according to the latest update from July 3.
According to the most recent Gallup poll, Trump's job approval rating was averaging 43% since he took office in this second term. His first term overall average was a 41% approval rating. At any given time during both terms thus far, his lowest to highest approval ratings have ranged between 34%-49%.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll from reported that, as of June 23, 41% of those surveyed gave him a favorable approval rating of his performance in office.
Rasmussen Reports poll from July 3 showed 49% approval and 48% disapproval of Trump.
Morning Consult poll updated June 30 showed 47% approve and 50% disapprove.
The American Research Group poll from June 17 through June 20 showed 38% approve and 59% disapprove..
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Very long recorded livestream, but even the first few minutes help demonstrate the real breadth of Trump's current support among diverse groups:
That video demonstrates one white woman and 3 black women support Trump. Does that demonstrate the majority of white and black women support Trump???
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Re: Post election prediction
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Originally Posted by
wes4dbt
I have no clues what polls your talking about. I can't find any that supports that claim.
CNN HUMILIATED with Trump's 'HISTORY MAKING POLL' as Dems LEAVE the Party in DROVES!!!
https://youtu.be/JWSOzVWgv8s?si=ry_Ru4KQoRg47Dmd
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Re: Post election prediction
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Originally Posted by
dilettante
You didn't claim Trump was polling well among Republicans, this was your claim,
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Every poll and every measure is trending his way by leaps and bounds.
It's easy to see that's not true. In many other polls he is about the same. Up a little in some and down a little in others.
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Re: Post election prediction
I suppose once TDS takes root there is no seeing reality.
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Re: Post election prediction
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My point is that "it" was earned
No it wasn't. You exploited the resources that were in front of you and pretty much exterminated an entire race of people (arguably multiple races) in the process. And it wasn't even you that exploited those resources; that would be the slaves you conveniently choose to ignore. And when that became unacceptable you shipped in a bunch of Mexicans on exploitation wages to do it before then blaming them for... well... doing what you were asking them to do. That's no more earned than any other nation in history. And no less immoral.
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British Imperialism is done.
Yes, it is. We're at peace with it. We have been for over half a century.
But it aint us whining about our victimhood and how hard we've got it while being amongst the most privileged people in the world. That's all you, baby.
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Re: Post election prediction
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Originally Posted by
dilettante
I suppose once TDS takes root there is no seeing reality.
Yeah, I guess so. You're sufficient proof of that.
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Re: Post election prediction
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No it wasn't. You exploited the resources that were in front of you and pretty much exterminated an entire race of people (arguably multiple races) in the process. And it wasn't even you that exploited those resources; that would be the slaves you conveniently choose to ignore. And when that became unacceptable you shipped in a bunch of Mexicans on exploitation wages to do it before then blaming them for... well... doing what you were asking them to do. That's no more earned than any other nation in history. And no less immoral.
You don't give us enough credit. We've exploited anyone who was exploitable. Not just slaves and Mexicans.
But that's not unique to us.
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Re: Post election prediction
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Originally Posted by
dilettante
I suppose once TDS takes root there is no seeing reality.
Knowing you have this problem means you have a chance to get better! :bigyello:
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I think the last time I witnessed debate of this caliber may have been in Pee Wee's Big Adventure.
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But that's not unique to us.
You'll get no arguments from me there
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Re: Post election prediction
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I reiterate: please elaborate on why you think I have Trump Derangement Syndrome.
Frankly I ignored that. I don't recall directing that to you. Does the foo ****? If so, wear it!
There is no war against Iran. An action was legally undertaken and it is over. There are no gripes about it now from any reputable quarter. Time to move on. I'd rather we'd kept our distance and not done that, but as usual a terrible mess of the Brits' making was about to boil over. And, s usual, we had to wipe their bottoms. Again. I agree that this must cease.
The spending bill was a compromise. Does it have too much spending? No question. But even with my apprehensions I think the good things in it probably couldn't be achieved any other way, and probably not before the left ramps up its calls for (and actual) insurrection to a point where normal governing becomes very difficult.
I'm as puzzled by the Epstein list suppression as anyone. I sure can't explain it away.
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Re: Post election prediction
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Are you deliberately gas lighting
Yes, he is.
Dil's technique is to throw a gish gallop of hyperbole into the space and then refuse to defend any of it. The hope is that the next piece of nonsense will distract from the last piece. It's why he's still failed to even attempt to defend his sense of victimhood alongside his overwhelming privilege - move along... nothing to see here... the British are bad people (while overlooking the history of US involvement in the overthrow of Iranian governments)... concentrate on that, please... if you don't you're deranged.
Sprinkle that with a bunch of ad hominems (which I've taken to returning in kind because... why not) and attempts to poison the well of any source outside of his narrow selection of far right conspiracies and, yes, I think you could fairly call that gas lighting.
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Re: Post election prediction
Maybe we should be helping Dil since he's carry all his eggs in one basket.
Now Dil, try again, but real hard to use constructive dialog to explain yourself in a response to what dday9 wrote in his post:
https://www.vbforums.com/showthread....=1#post5680355
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Why bother? Nobody is listening.
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Actually, I'd like to encourage Dil in regard to his post #2224. When he puts some substance behind his words, he has something to say that is often worth hearing. It's the snide references to things like TDS (which made it into The Economist, though it was used to describe Republicans) that annoy me...and I have often felt that that was WHY he made snide references. Throwing stones is always the easier position.
I can see why Dil is saying that the attack on Iran wasn't a war. For America, it was a single strike, which amounts to no more than a bargaining position at this point. I don't think it is over, but I also recognize that it might work out okay (with the caveat that you can't follow more than one path at once, so we can never be certain). This could lead to some severely bad outcomes, but it could also lead to some decidedly positive outcomes...and it could also result in nothing much at all.
I have never put any thought into the Epstein files, and am not surprised that they were suppressed. I don't know what they would mean in any case. A rich guy associated with a bunch of other rich guys. He also engaged in under age sex trafficking, so it may be that he did that with the rich guys he associated with. Do these files show that? Do they suggest that? I have no idea. If they are just guest lists for parties that anybody can read whatever they want into, then it wouldn't surprise me that nobody wants those to be released. The lists would include the Clintons and the Trumps. That shouldn't surprise anybody, they attended plenty of the same parties over the 80s and 90s. What does it mean? Nothing much, to me.
I also felt Dil's views on the spending bill, once he said them, were quite reasonable. I don't see good things in there, just a massive amount of aimless gifts. I recognize that I will be the beneficiary of some of those gifts, which I don't need or want. It's irresponsible governance with no underlying vision, but we really haven't seen anything else for a very long time. When it comes to fiscal matters, the last time I felt there was a president who entered office with a fiscal vision that was optional, was W, and his vision got snuffed out with 9/11. Everybody else has either been reacting (the rest of W's administration, Obama, and Biden), or directing by whim (Trump) with majorities so slim, or absent, that you end up with bills like the Bad, Bezerk, Boondoggle (BBB). Unable to lose more than a vote or two, the bill is stuffed full of nutty things to get one or another person onboard. Some matter little, like the tax break for native American whale captains, some will hurt a whole lot of people, like the medicaid cuts. Still, I can see Dil's point of view on that bill, and we likely agree on many aspects of it, I just see a mess, where he sees a mess with some benefits.
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Re: Post election prediction
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I also felt Dil's views on the spending bill, once he said them, were quite reasonable. I don't see good things in there, just a massive amount of aimless gifts. I recognize that I will be the beneficiary of some of those gifts, which I don't need or want. It's irresponsible governance with no underlying vision, but we really haven't seen anything else for a very long time. When it comes to fiscal matters, the last time I felt there was a president who entered office with a fiscal vision that was optional, was W, and his vision got snuffed out with 9/11. Everybody else has either been reacting (the rest of W's administration, Obama, and Biden), or directing by whim (Trump) with majorities so slim, or absent, that you end up with bills like the Bad, Bezerk, Boondoggle (BBB). Unable to lose more than a vote or two, the bill is stuffed full of nutty things to get one or another person onboard. Some matter little, like the tax break for native American whale captains, some will hurt a whole lot of people, like the medicaid cuts. Still, I can see Dil's point of view on that bill, and we likely agree on many aspects of it, I just see a mess, where he sees a mess with some benefits.
I'm with you on the BBB (your definition).
Raising our debt by trillions so you can give tax breaks and do various other narrowly beneficial things while cutting medicaid doesn't makes financial sense or the humane approach. Do we really need to spend $85 million to move a space shuttle from DC to Texas. The Trump Account doesn't serve peoples needs. In 18 years you'll have @ $2,400. That might get you one semester in a community college, probably not by then. Add the cost of administering the program and you don't get much for your money.
I'll also benefit from the bill, the extras $6,000 tax deduction will help me a little. But I pay little to no taxes already. Anyone who is paying taxes on their social security is not the very low income sector that really needs help.
I don't blame this mess of a bill on just Trump, I agree with dday, this is just status quo.
That being said, I'm not claiming to have read the complete bill. "native American whale captains", that was news to me. Probably how they got the Alaska senators vote. lol
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Yes, that was for the Alaska vote. There can't be all that many native American whale captains, but it still wasn't a fluke. I'm pretty sure they passed it on porpoise, though I don't have a cetacean on that.
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This doesn't seem to have any benefit for the US and completely ignores the harm being done to the individuals involved.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/legally-s...230557492.html
This seems to be something done purely to meet a quota so they can brag about how many people they deported.
I have no problem with deporting people that are in the country illegally. I have no problem deporting people here on a temporary status that are convicted of committing a felony. But this action is callous with no consideration to the people affected.
Our country has had an immigration problem for many years and I would like to see more control. But it's just being perverted into a political show pony.
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So they have been here since 1999?
I guess we have different ideas about the definition of "temporary."
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We need a significant number of migrant workers because we have a significant number of migrant jobs. These don't have to be migrants from outside the country, but since the jobs largely suck, the only people who will do them are likely not US citizens. The jobs tend to be outside and manual labor, but they underpin a lot of the housing and food supply in this country. Of course, we could get rid of all that, because we could switch to importing all our food, and we could raise prices for housing. Labor may not be the primary issue with house building anyways, as planning and zoning may be a bigger issue.
The way we've handled it, thus far, though, is by not addressing it. Legal immigration and temporary worker visas have been in steep decline...probably. It looks like nobody is quite certain for the last several years. Trump has said they will be severely curtailed, which started in his first term and has been uncertain ever since.
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Re: Post election prediction
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I can understand where this would not be a popular position and in terms of priority I'd like to see these people leave last, but at the same time it is hard to justify why most of the TPS participants in this article still need a protected status.
I don't know the current political conditions in Honduras and Nicaragua or why these people needed to leave. I don't understand why you think people that have been contributing members of our society for over 25 years need to leave at all. But I do see the problem that they have not become "official" US citizens. I don't know the process for that to happen or if that's is an option for them. This seems to be one of the major problems with the TPS system. There doesn't seem to be any definition on what these peoples next steps should be or any kind of timeline for them completing them. I'm for fixing the system, not punishing those caught up in a flawed system.
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In fact, I think if the Trump administration would direct USCIS to prioritize those effected since they've already entered the US legally via TPS and maintained a lawful residency, then their path to naturalization could be fast tracked.
What actions from the current administration in this deportation frenzy would make you believe this administration would take a reasonable approach and try to do the right thing?
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I got curious so I Google "can TPS become permanent residents", this is what I got from the AI
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While Temporary Protected Status (TPS) itself doesn't provide a direct path to permanent residency or citizenship, individuals with TPS can apply for a green card through other avenues if they meet the eligibility requirements for those paths. These alternative pathways often involve family-based or employment-based petitions.
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Re: Post election prediction
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Originally Posted by
dilettante
So they have been here since 1999?
I guess we have different ideas about the definition of "temporary."
It's not about our definition, I don't think the TPS ever established a definition.
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Re: Post election prediction
Bogus.
Where illegals have been eliminated Americans are already taking those jobs. And there are plenty more able-bodied welfare queens sitting pretty today but in need of work tomorrow.
Large swathes of the ag sector have indeed profited from subsidized slave labor. Those days are beginning to end.
Legal migrant farm workers are an entirely different thing, and have long been welcomed and are covered by very long-standing visa programs. Substandard housing and abusively low wages have long been addressed.
Slaves States like California naturally have their noses out of joint. Where will the child labor to tend their pot farms come from? What about the need for gardeners, housekeepers, and nannies who will work for a pittance under threat of reporting to ICE? There aren't enough prisoners to fight the frequent fires and work the road gangs for peanuts.
Not to mention the sex slavery and pedophilia wrapped within it all.
And then there is the puffing up of population totals in order to gain excess Congressional representation and Electoral Collage seats. Thankfully, that's about to come to an end as well.
