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Crap, I lost.Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker
You fell for my clever plot!
Well, with the rules the 1922 committee have laid out it's starting to look like Boris probably will be back in (assuming he runs but I don't think there's much doubt about that. He needs to get a little under a third of the MPs to back him, which shouldn't be difficult - he's probably got it already, and them he'll go forward to the membership, most likely against Rishi Sunak. The membership adore Boris and hate Sunak so...
Oh well, only two years until a general election.
I'd put odds on he'd win the nomination. The election, I'm less sure. I think the Dems have some strong candidates but they tend to be from the more radical wing and I'm not sure the US electorate is ready for that. The Dems need to find a strong centrist.Quote:
If there was an election today, my guess is he would win
The Dem's need to find some unity. The Rep's seem much better at that.Quote:
Originally Posted by FunkyDexter
Not that I find sticking together whether right or wrong a good thing but it does help win elections.
As for Trump winning, I think any republican would win right now. You would think the whole election fraud lies, Jan. 6th, business fraud, stolen documents would sour people on Trump but his core is still strong and willing to ignore these things. Then the economy problems are probably enough to make large numbers vote against then Dem's.
Personally, I don't think the economy has anything to do with Rep or Dem. Plus I still remember the wreck that Bush left the economy in. I keep say economy but the issue is inflation. The jobs market is actually very good.
But I'm really just guessing and not well informed guessing at that. But I'm sure of one thing, Biden out lasted Truss so USA, USA!!!! lol
Actually employment levels are deemed "too good" right now.
Seems like an impossible thing, but the suggestion is that so many marginal workers are employed that productivity is severely eroded and managing them has high costs. This slows production and delivery of goods and services.
We're also under policies that discourage petroleum production and refining and encourages shipping domestic supplies overseas. For good or for ill, it plays into scarcities and increased prices.
Trying to pretend this is merely the hand of Fate seems pretty naïve.
LSU is playing ole miss.
If there was a lever that a politician could pull that would make the economy great, they'd pull it as soon as they got their hands on it, and keep pulling it till it broke off.
Don't think about that too much.
It'll make you go blind.
We someone to run this country who knows how to tie up their shoelaces.
Bonker 4 PM.
It may not be Fate. But I see nothing from history that indicates either the Rep's or Dem's no how to control the economy. I'd say it's more of the shotgun approach. Just keep firing until something good happens.Quote:
Trying to pretend this is merely the hand of Fate seems pretty naïve.
LSU beat Ole Miss
Good for LSU. I was wondering how good the 7-0 Ole Mis was.Quote:
Originally Posted by dday9
It's not just random, but it IS chaotic. We poured a huge amount of money into the economy as a result of COVID. For some people, that makes no difference. I bought bonds with the stimulus checks because it was ironic. That didn't do anything one way or another. However, there are lots of people who have a need for the money, and buy stuff with it. With the supply chain fouled up, an increase in purchasing just meant that the economy was overheating.
Of course, economists have been predicting inflation rising for the last decade, or more, and it kept on not happening. The assumption was that at full employment, which we were at, employers would increase wages to compete for employees, and that would cause inflation. It didn't happen then. Was this a lagging economic effect, a result of an overheating economy, a result of supply chain disruption, all of the above...mixed with the largest oil exporter starting a war? Yeah, probably all of those...plus, I ate a cheeseburger back in 1986. It was good.
I hadn't heard about the lettuce. That was awesome.
So the economy is where the term "butterfly effect" comes from. lol
The people that predict things like inflation or the market rise/fall just have to be persistent, eventual you'll be right.
I predict the market will go back up and inflation will comeback down. I like my odds.
That's not where the term came from, but it certainly applies quite well. Even people who know about chaotic systems tend to overlook the significance of that. Inflation might not be happening, or might be more, or might be less, had I not eaten that cheeseburger. The long term impacts of VERY trivial changes is equal in magnitude to every other change, so long as the strange attractor doesn't move, and it probably hasn't. That just means that the economy is still oscillating around the same general point.
The difference between a trivial change and a non-trivial change appears to be in how long it takes for the effect to manifest, not in the magnitude of the effect.
BoJo has dropped out. I did not see that coming.
So it'll be interesting to see what happens now. I don't think Penny Mordaunt will get the 100 nominations she needs to go forward to the membership but it's close. If she does she'll likely win because alot of the membership hate Sunak. Should be interesting to see.