It sounds like Sweden isn't doing so well. Experiment gone bad? Since nobody wants to watch a long video I'll leave you to research it yourself.
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It sounds like Sweden isn't doing so well. Experiment gone bad? Since nobody wants to watch a long video I'll leave you to research it yourself.
The deal with Sweden is that they went with only limited lockdowns, hoping to get to herd immunity quicker I suppose. They seem to be putting less effort into health care for serious cases, like not providing oxygen.
Simple is as simple doesQuote:
Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker
The Swedes will watch it, as long as NOTHING happens in it. Aren't they pretty much the founders of videos like that of logs burning?Quote:
Originally Posted by dilettante
What would you expect with all that time on their hands:Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker
In the depths of winter, the Stockholm area has only around five and a half daylight hours, while in the north of Lapland, the sun peeks above the horizon to give just 4 hours of twilight and almost 20 hours of complete darkness. But the darkness is short-lived.
Don't know if it went bad or just not as good as they hoped. The Deaths/1M pop in Sweden is actually less than UK, Spain, Italy and just a little higher than France. But I wouldn't say any of these countries used a good model, like S. Korea. The European country that has a really high death rates is Belgium, I have no idea why. But when I look at these numbers I'm never sure how much faith in them. A lot of different methods are used for counting COVID deaths.
Here's a short one on another topic. With a short cartoon though it comes near the end.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JFamzSTQXsw
Heartening or boring depending on your blood type I suppose.
Most of the articles I've seen focus on Sweden being far worse than it's Scandinavian neighbours. That's probably a better comparison because the Scandinavian countries are markedly different to other European ones. Populations tend to be older, much stronger health systems, much more family and society orientated, much lower populations per sq/m, lower light levels, temperatures and so on.Quote:
The Deaths/1M pop in Sweden is actually less than UK, Spain, Italy and just a little higher than France.
It's kind of weird. In a way I'm glad they undertook that experiment, it's good that someone did. But Christ I'm glad I'm not one of the test subjects.
Have you got a source on that? I was under the belief that we (the UK) were doing far worse than any other European country so I'd like to read into it.Quote:
The European country that has a really high death rates is Belgium
The Economist has been showing a graph each week of deaths per 100,000 (or 1000, I forget which), and Belgium is consistently above the rest by a modest amount. I don't have a link, though.
I think Sweden's approach was all about getting people infected at a higher rate than most other places. Not without controls at all: masks and distancing and hand washing still encouraged though perhaps ignored more. They seem to have limited the level of care (avoiding ventilators or even extra oxygen at all in severe cases) and I don't know where that fits in aside from propaganda value for others.
It is hard to tell whether this is going worse or better than a lot of other places. If accelerating exposure is core to their policies then of course they will experience higher case/death rates this early in the game.
For all we know they might come out of it better and quicker in the end. But it's hard to tell, we don't even know where the end is yet.
So many variables to account for as alluded to above. So many interests (Big Pharma, corrupt mainstream media, academics tribally invested in their own positions, politicians angling for advantage). And that's before we even bring in economic factors and their whole slew of tribes and camps.
I've posted this before https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
You can drill down by selecting a country.
WARNING: STRONG LANGUAGE
The first 3 1/2 minutes sort of sum up this entire thread comedically:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pQS_bX3sX8s
Thanks, that's a really good source. It still doesn't show the UK in a great light but it does show that we're not stone dead last which is the impression I'm getting from the press over here (though we're still running firmly in the back field).Quote:
I've posted this before https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
You can drill down by selecting a country.
Sweden like the other Scandinavian countries not only has a smaller population, but also a much lower density of population then it bigger European neighbours, and all the biggest outbreaks have occurred in the biggest cities with higher population densities.Quote:
Don't know if it went bad or just not as good as they hoped. The Deaths/1M pop in Sweden is actually less than UK, Spain, Italy and just a little higher than France.
Comparing Sweden with its Denmark or Norway which are similar to it in both population and population density there approach has been catastrophic, mainly driven by there deaths in care homes which are much higher then they expected.
Even those in charge of Sweden's approach are now admitting they made mistakes.
Not really, Swedens approach was all about civic and personal responsibility a deep trust between the people and the state. They still did some physical distancing measures & hand washing but no lockdown, they banned any large gatherings over 50 people and only allowed table service at cafes and restaurants.Quote:
I think Sweden's approach was all about getting people infected at a higher rate than most other places. Not without controls at all: masks and distancing and hand washing still encouraged though perhaps ignored more. They seem to have limited the level of care (avoiding ventilators or even extra oxygen at all in severe cases) and I don't know where that fits in aside from propaganda value for others.
They were relying on the people following the governments moderate guidelines and people using there common sense to keep them safe but they had no real plan to protect there care homes and without a lockdown or some other plan to protect them Covid swept through there care homes at a high rate.
Quick question for those that do not reside in the US: What is the general attitude towards others that wear masks out in public? Ridicule? Indifference? Positive? And what is the general attitude towards wearing masks in the first place?
-tg
In the UK there was no major uptake of face masks in the early stages for a couple of reasons:-
1. The science was saying that anything other than surgical grade face masks wouldn't protect you
2. It was felt that surgical face masks should be left for the NHS rather than the general public.
2 is still true but the opinion about 1 has shifted radically. The evidence is still that they don't protect you but they do make you far less likely to pass on an infection. For that reason I'm seeing an increasing number of people wearing masks but I would say it's still very low.
As for Ridicule/Indifference/Positive, I would say indifference. For the last few weeks I've been masking up when I go shopping or go into town. In the supermarket, nobody seems to even register it. In town I get a second glance, but that's all. I don't even get a politely raised eyebrow.
To be fair, we're Brits. Polite indifference is kinda our national identity.
In France, we had masks very lately for the population, the priority was for the medical people and first necessity activities.
When we were confined and had mask, most of the people wore the mask (I would says 80-90%), It is less the case now beside in the stores and restaurants that make it mandatory to enter (in there it is 100%). People still wear the mask but outdoor is is about 50% now maybe less and reducing everyday. it also depends of the area, in Britanny, they almost don't wear any mask as they is very few case of contaminated people.
I didn't see any particular attitude toward people who wear the mask or toward those who don't (so I would say indifference).
Here I speak only for the areas I live and work in (east suburb of Paris), maybe different in others areas.
The U.S. is a big place. I suspect attitudes vary between and within regions as much as they do other countries.
I know people who fled the Greater Detroit area for parts of the Upper Peninsula early on. Population density is low there aside from a few of the major cities, and even there infection rates were low due to isolation. Most of those are also college towns and during lockdown students had largely gone home, emptying many communities.
So cruising webcams up there I seldom see any masking. The fishing resorts have no tourists so locals have the luxury of fishing those spots themselves and I've seen few masks there. Same goes for grocery stores with webcams overlooking their parking lots and even the little downtown strips. Not a lot of Yooper mask wearing. Some that I see might even be more of a fashion statement. The area is largely rural but in those college towns there can be a sharp political divide between the local and academic populations.
A friend up there makes the joke that they had 3 protesters recently, and that they vandalized and looted a newspaper vending box. Slapped a bumper sticker on it and extracted 1 newspaper without paying.
Not a whole lot of mask wearing in Idaho, anymore. Wal-Mart requires staff to wear masks, and a month or so back I'd say that about 70% of patrons were masked. Now it's down around 10-20%. Other stores, like Home Depot and ranch supply stores probably never got above 30% masked, and are down below 10% by now.
Do you have like in France all the cashier desks protected with Plexiglas windows ?
In a lot of places, yep. It's been interesting.Quote:
Originally Posted by Delaney
-tg
Canada for the most part seems to be indifferent to masks. Some people hate them, some love them, but no one seems to really call the other out on it; we all just leave each other be (except maybe some passive-agressiveness which Canada excels at). Basically everywhere has plexiglass now in front of checkouts and a few places are recommending people wear masks, but none are enforcing.
Mind you, my experiences come from a town of about 150,000 people that has only had 63 cases and have been virus-free for over a week now.
Long story... raccoon troubles, no longer legal to even live-trap without a license, without evidence of rabies Animal Control won't come out, etc. etc.
Not a fireworks guy or even just a garden variety pyro, but I thought "hmm" when the county woman on the phone suggested loud sharp noises. Even the right time of year!
Drove around town, even out toward a few Hicksvilles. Nada.
Took a drive down toward the outskirts of Zona Infectada (Detroit) because the closest place with any stock was the other side of Howell from here. Even so the proprietor had been bucking the Governor here earlier. Boss Lady in attendance there told me most sellers flubbed their ordering by vacillating too long this year.
35 miles each way but a nice day, I was bored and don't get out much.
Got there and went in, immediately felt like a clown in my mask. Nobody working there nor other customers had masks on. No hand sanitizer anywhere.
Realizing they wouldn't be selling matches, lighters, et al. there I next went into a nearby dollar store. There the door had a sign requiring masks. I went in and nobody else but the employees wore them in there. They also had crude "distancing markers" on the floor at the checkout but no sanitizer or anything.
Went back to my car, pulled my disinfecting wipe from the ziplock I keep it in to stay moist. Drove home and did a more thorough cleanup.
Far more casual about spreading infection than anything I've been used to.
Managed 43 MPG so I can't whine about the cost of the trip.
At least have have some loose single Black Cats, Lady Fingers, and to start with some Red Cracker Snaps. Even the Snaps seem loud enough to me after a test. If the 'coons aren't impressed then I can level up. Bought some cheap bamboo sparklers so if all else fails I can just entertain them.
How about testing?
It's never been offered to me. I'm not sure it means much without some event suggesting you might be infected. Otherwise you'd need testing over and over and over right?
What do you think an "event" ought to be? Failing one bullet point on a screening?
In theory we've got it available for anyone showing symptoms. There were some grumblings about the logistics of it (having to travel too far to get tested and results taking too long to come back) but those seem to have dies away so I get the impression it's running pretty smoothly now. I mean, they've had a full quarter to get it right so, um, piss ups in breweries I guess.Quote:
How about testing?
I'm not sure if antibody immunity has been definitively proved one way or the other yet (has anyone else heard anything on this? It feels like that debate's gone quiet) but assuming we do get immunity I guess you only need to test positive once. But, yeah, a negative test is like an MOT, it only shows you're OK on the day it's taken.Quote:
Otherwise you'd need testing over and over and over right?
Wasn't there an issue with flawed testing that detected dead virus? I think that's why the "debate" went silent, there was nothing to it after all.
Mask wearing in Manchester were i am is mixed.
I would estimate about 50% of people use them in Super Markets (Grocery Stores)
Around 20% maybe are using them just going outside, i even saw someone driving past me the other day wearing a mask.
There are no problems between those who wear them and those who dont though that i have seen
It's now compulsory to wear a Mask on Public transport in the whole of the UK which is good, not that i am currently using it as i am working from home.
Banks won't let you wear a mask. I was wondering about that. Perhaps it's different in different areas, but if you want to wear a mask into a bank around here you have to contact them first.
Bank's can manage that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VFkrLsxEhic
They're fine with it round here. I went into my bank a few weeks ago to sort out an issue. I was wearing a mask and they didn't question it. Mind you, if 4 surfer dudes turn up wearing ex president masks, I imagine they might get a little nervous.Quote:
Banks won't let you wear a mask
Maybe it was the gun, not the mask....
I'm not even sure how the data falls the way it does.
Edit: For some reason CBS News pulled down a number of videos.
Based on what I see around me here I hate to imagine the States in red there.
Yeah, that's a weird pattern.
We just topped 100 cases in a day or week (I forget which), which was the first time we've hit that level since April. That's not a good trend. The majority of them came from a few bars that opened back up. Gee, what a surprise. Fortunately, it was all in young people, so if they haven't managed to pass it on to others, there may be no deaths out of this group.
Grabbed a similar chart from a CNN video.
Another map, same period, from Covid ActNow. Here the green is "on track to contain COVID." Yellow "controlled disease growth."
I guess we shouldn't set great store by charts and data. They seem too readily spinnable to fit your agenda.
Unfortunately it is easy to fall into "Lies, damned lies, and statistics", so it's important to keep a critical eye on statistics.
While the percentage increase/decrease in cases is useful to know, it's really only useful with much more context, not least the number of cases before (an increase of 50% is bad, but if it is from a tiny amount like 100 cases before then it isn't a major concern).
The other one seems to be much more appropriate, as it presumably takes account of things like that, and the limits of the healthcare system etc. Unfortunately without knowing their measure of what counts as "controlled" etc, it isn't easy to be certain... but it does seem to be a much more valid set of data to pay attention to.
Give me a break...what is your point :bigyello:Quote:
Originally Posted by FunkyDexter
Took me a moment to get that one.
By the way, there's a big spike coming in Oklahoma.
I see what you did there...Quote:
Give me a break...what is your point
I agree and I'd rather Trump wasn't holding rallies at a time like this but, as someone who advocated for attending Black Lives Matter marches in the last few weeks, I do recognise the hypocrisy in my position on that one. Political events, even those I personally regard as frivolous, do at least have the merit of being important to the future of your nation.Quote:
there's a big spike coming in Oklahoma
On the other hand, lockdown parties like we've seen in Bristol and Manchester in the last week just make me despair. Seriously, what sort of person attends these?
I feel that if he held is rally's outdoors, there would be less criticism.Quote:
I agree and I'd rather Trump wasn't holding rallies at a time like this but, as someone who advocated for attending Black Lives Matter marches in the last few weeks, I do recognise the hypocrisy in my position on that one.
I know what you mean, but as to what sort of person attends these? young people who are fed up with not being able to go out, and dont think the rules apply any more after Cummings broke them all.Quote:
On the other hand, lockdown parties like we've seen in Bristol and Manchester in the last week just make me despair. Seriously, what sort of person attends these?
That still makes them idiots, just idiots following the example of government advisers
Well, sounds like it won't be a BIG spike. They had a pretty small turnout, in the end.
I think "spiking" moves around like fire following the fuel. I'm not even sure the degree of lockdown and precautions matters much unless it is absolute. Knowing people, that never happens. I sure haven't seen it when I've ventured out.
In the end maybe it is all about a gradual process of acquiring antibodies through infection. That puts us back to the herd immunity solution where enough people are immune (and non-spreaders) so the rest have far lower chances of exposure down the road.
To be fair, he tried, but nobody turned up.Quote:
I feel that if he held is rally's outdoors, there would be less criticism.
I've been noticing some significantly larger numbers the last few days in the number of confirmed cases here locally, as well in some other places.... walking it backwards, it made perfect sense. Roughly 2-3 weeks ago was Memorial Day... people couldn't help themselves... headed to the beaches... had gatherings... and now... welp... here we are...
-tg
The whole goal of the closure wasn't to eliminate the disease but to slow the rate of spread such that it didn't overwhelm the health care system.
Having said that, the county that Boise is in (though not the one I'm in) has just announced that they are stepping back a stage and a half. This follows the fastest increase in cases we've seen in the state over the last week. We went from 25 two weeks ago to 300 last week. It's not a large number, but the count has been roughly tripling each week, and with the delay between infection and detection, we may be up around a thousand cases in that county right now.
This opening thing? Well, it was fun while it lasted.
I agree. That was a consistent line coming out of every "authoritative" source that I can recall. I'm sure they believed that and I don't question it myself. Might even be true. May even have worked.Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker
Did that saves lives? Certainly.
But now we hear anti-Trump voices want to lay both the U.S. death toll and joblessness/business failures at his doorstep. They want to argue it both ways: didn't lock down early enough and hard enough, but allowed the lockdowns which hurt folks economically.
Technically, it's all true. We're in uncharted waters. The path we followed led to where we are today. Had we followed a different path, we would have ended up in a different place. Whether that different place would have been better or worse is a matter of speculation...in an absence of data. We have no real experience with this. The Spanish Flu outbreak is the last time we did anything like a lockdown, and that was a different time. You weren't traveling fast or far, back then.
So, if people don't like the current situation, then they feel some other path should have been taken, but everybody is guessing as to which alternate path would have been better.
For my part, I feel like I have no place to complain about anything. The lockdown has been quite pleasant, for me. Full time telecommuting suits me very well. Sure, the lack of dining options is a nuisance, but compared to what others (such as those running the dining establishments) are going through, I have no place to object. I also live in a part of the country that has been largely spared, thus far, and is relatively sparsely populated (though I'm in the most densely populated part of a sparsely populated state), so my personal exposure has been pretty modest. At this point, I don't know a single person who has tested positive, though we were just informed today that one person at our office did test positive, and it is fairly likely that I know them. Still, since they have not been identified, I can say that I don't know anybody who has tested positive.
I object to Trump, and don't feel that he has handled this well, but our Governor has handled it well, and that, plus the low rates in this state, have made up for any failure on the national level. We're almost back to being considered insane for our politics, which means we are pretty nearly back to normal.
Squirrels, Gophers, 'Gators... You just need to get more imaginative.Quote:
the lack of dining options is a nuisance
I'm not hearing people blame him for Joblessness and Business Failures although it's possible those voices have simply failed to reach the UK. I do think he needs to bear a large portion of the blame for the death toll though. Right now you're about the only country left with an increasing infection rate and it's not because you're not getting a second wave. You haven't dealt with the first wave yet and that's largely due to the message Trump has consistently sent.Quote:
now we hear anti-Trump voices want to lay both the U.S. death toll and joblessness/business failures at his doorstep
Well Trump is the president, he is in charge who else you gonna blame?Quote:
But now we hear anti-Trump voices want to lay both the U.S. death toll and joblessness/business failures at his doorstep. They want to argue it both ways: didn't lock down early enough and hard enough, but allowed the lockdowns which hurt folks economically.
As to locking down early enough, if you look at the countries that did lock down early and hard, there lockdown's lasted a shorter period of time and where more effective as locking down early before widespread virus transmission stop the virus getting out of control and bring down the R rate quicker.
Locking down for a shorter period of time is in every bodies interests and the evidence is showing that quicker earlier lock downs are just a better and more effective strategy when dealing with a virus like this one.
Having a lockdown of some form was inevitable, very few countries have a health service that is designed to be able to cope with a virus hospitalising the number of people we saw, and when you health system starts to fail many many more lives are lost.
I see that mainly the groups that are blaming Trump for not locking down quick enough and those not wanting to lock down at all are different groups, if any of them are in the same group then they are contradicting themselves.
We do have some data to compare against now, yes we would like more but international comparisons are showing us which approaches have been so far more effective, they are also showing us as we open up from lock down what activities are causing the most spikes in new cases. For instance in South Korea which is generally considered to have managed this pandemic well, they opened back up all there bars and night clubs back to normal and almost immediately saw a spike in new cases.Quote:
We're in uncharted waters. The path we followed led to where we are today. Had we followed a different path, we would have ended up in a different place. Whether that different place would have been better or worse is a matter of speculation...in an absence of data
Somewhat obviously but now supported by actual events, activities where lots of people congregate indoors and dont social distance and there is plenty of human to human contact spike the cases upwards.
Meat processing plants seem to be another driver of new cases due to the poor working conditions and lack of social distancing.
Do you think that might be because he is the President of the United States...:rolleyes:Quote:
But now we hear anti-Trump voices want to lay both the U.S. death toll and joblessness/business failures at his doorstep. They want to argue it both ways: didn't lock down early enough and hard enough, but allowed the lockdowns which hurt folks economically.
Or...that his whole approach to the health of our nation is driven by him wanting to be re-elected? Nothing else! He abrogated his responsibility as president and just left it up to the states. That when a national approach was so badly needed.
Got the squirrels, the gophers aren't local, but...and you might be surprised at this...I DO know where I can go to buy fresh gator in Idaho. That may sound like a joke, but it isn't. There's a place that uses a hot spring to raise gators.Quote:
Originally Posted by FunkyDexter
I haven't heard him being blamed for the economic slump around the virus. I've only heard him blamed for trying to get people to open faster than is wise.Quote:
I'm not hearing people blame him for Joblessness and Business Failures although it's possible those voices have simply failed to reach the UK. I do think he needs to bear a large portion of the blame for the death toll though. Right now you're about the only country left with an increasing infection rate and it's not because you're not getting a second wave. You haven't dealt with the first wave yet and that's largely due to the message Trump has consistently sent.
UK is in black, US in red.
Totals might be clearer, oops I swapped colors in my haste. ;)
Those charts don't prove the US has done any kind of great job, just that stewardship of the public health could be far worse as elsewhere.
-OR-
Aren't numbers fun?
Well, the UK certainly isn't going to win any prizes for how they handled this. They got into quarantine too late, then left too early. I can understand them wanting to leave early. After all, they were probably desperate to show that they could exit SOMETHING.
The UK has a much higher population density than the US and they did a very bad job of handling the problem, waited way to long.
If our numbers are better than the UK is not because of any leadership from Trump, it's despite his lack of leadership. The governors have had to make all the decisions and implement them. Trump has consistently went against his own CDC guidelines and encouraged others to do the same.
Yeah, comparing yourself to us is to set the bar about as low as possible. You'd need a spade to set the bar there.Quote:
Well, the UK certainly isn't going to win any prizes for how they handled this
My point was this: You're not past the first wave yet. But Trump thinks now is the right time to open up.
Trump thought Easter was the right time to open up.Quote:
But Trump thinks now is the right time to open up
NOW, everything is opening up. Many states are seeing their highest daily new case count. But so far the daily deaths are still going down, there is usually a two to three week lag between new cases and deaths so the next 10 - 14 days should tell us a lot about where we stand on opening up. But Trump can't wait for the data to lead us in the right direction. All this morally bankrupt narcissistic president cares about is being reelected and he doesn't care how many people die so he holds an indoor rally.
"Trump is the COVID Antichrist" then facts then "but, but..." ;)
Not past the first wave yet?
I'm in Michigan, which has an area and coastline about equal to the UK. Population density is lower, around 1/6 of the UK.
About 87% of our cases occurred in 9 adjacent counties (out of 83). "Opening up" has been by region within the State based on safety yet almost 100% of the increase in cases has been down there in Zona Infectada. Why? Because for political reasons that have nothing to do with Trump the giant anthill has been allowed to open up on schedule with the safer regions.
Here's a graph that shows we've exited the first wave. The new rise is almost entirely in those 9 counties.