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Yeah, grocery shopping is one of my few pleasures (what a sad statement). Don't think I would be happy with a service like that. Could be very helpful if you couldn't do your own for some reason. I don't wipe down anything, just wash my hands when I'm done putting the stuff away. I justify these choices by telling myself, if I'm going to catch the virus it's it's going to be from my son who lives with me, he works in a grocery store. I know, it's crap logic but I'm sticking by it.
It's fairly sound. Realistically it's more likely to get into your home via your son who's coming and going from you home every day (presumably) and with whom you're having extensive ongoing contact than from a weekly delivery that you're in contact with for maybe half an hour. That said, it's like software security: every extra layer is good.Quote:
it's crap logic
Generally I've found grocery deliveries to be pretty good but I haven't tried them since Corona hit. I tried early in the lockdown but couldn't even get onto the site so I imagine it's gotten pretty sketchy.Quote:
Wow, sure had to cancel a lot of items and substitute others. A lot sold out between my ordering time and when the shopper got 'round to it. Lots of texting to and fro.
If I'm honest, I'm being pretty lax about cleaning groceries etc. which is pretty stupid as it's really the only vector that's likely to let the virus into my home. I'm going out to shop so it's not feasible to clean groceries as I pick them but I probably could be cleaning everything when I get home.
Yeah, I don't see delivery people or shop staff getting the protection I think they should. I'd like to think that there are measures being taken at the depots to sanitise the outgoing parcels etc. but I'm not convinced. I've heard a few rumblings from drivers representatives that they feel at risk. As for shop staff, the lack of protection there, for people who are in direct contact with large numbers of possible carriers, is ridiculous.Quote:
I was surprised that she showed up with no mask or PPE of any kind though.
Some good news, a reliable antibody test has been developed by the Swiss. As this rolls out it will be a massive leap forward in our ability to trace this thing and therefore plan appropriate response measures.
Talking heads are at great pains this morning to emphasise that antibody immunity is not guaranteed by catching it once but, fingers crossed that it is. If it is then we can start opening up much more safely by targeting people who are immune. And if it's not, at least we will know that and can plan accordingly.
So there's at least a glimmering light at the end of the tunnel.
I need rubbing alcohol to clean some medical devices I use. I've only found one bottle since the run on it started. That one was behind the counter and if you didn't ask they wouldn't mention it. My neighbors are helping me out giving me some of theirs. I'll need to be coming up with some kind of substitute soon.Quote:
Originally Posted by dilettante
And don't mention vodka...I wouldn't waste it like that :D
I use 91% isopropyl for some cleaning purposes unrelated to this pandemic. I have about 17 ounces still on hand but that's also a really scarce retail commodity now I'd imagine.
Yeah that can be a great tool. Just saw a study that says the plasma treatments were safe, don't know how effective yet. But we are finding more and more tools at a very rapid pace. It's probably going to take quite a while for a vaccine but our knowledge of the virus is increasing rapidly. Gives me great hope that within a couple of months pandemic will be more manageable and the death rates will be much lower. Maybe not but we got a whole lot of smart people working very hard.Quote:
Some good news, a reliable antibody test has been developed by the Swiss. As this rolls out it will be a massive leap forward in our ability to trace this thing and therefore plan appropriate response measures.
On topic and fun for fans. "Monk" is pretty binge-able family fare currently found on several streaming services.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f4W2xmqjvx4
At present, the Swedish approach is the most scientific.
If China had learned from Sweden, then China's situation would be better than Sweden, because the Chinese government's execution, medical resources and manufacturing capabilities are better than Sweden.
But if other countries learn from Sweden, the situation in their country will be worse.
China has won the war with poor weapons, but the costs, especially the economic losses, are devastating.
Wuhan re-testing nucleic acids for all residents (more than 10 million residents)
Here are a few pictures, which are scenes of nucleic acid detection for residents in the Wuhan community late at night in recent days. The medical staff stayed up all night to work overtime, and the people were in order. The testing of more than 10 million people needed to be completed within 10 days. It is really not easy.
https://dig.chouti.com/link/29587235
In addition, for the elderly and people with reduced mobility, medical staff will come to the door to detect.
Any Jim Gaffigan fans out there?
He's been posting videos from lockdown, both segments from his old televised material and new stuff from his home with family. He's just a goofy regular guy, so expect a lot of cringeworthy stuff.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kk9EEecdQgU
It seems to be a good news.Quote:
Fangzhouzi(Fangshimin):
It is now found that the monoclonal antibody on the memory cells of people infected with SARS in 2003 can neutralize the new coronavirus. Does this mean that the immunity generated by infection with the new coronavirus is also likely to last for more than ten or twenty years?
In addition, perhaps this may explain that China (including Hong Kong and Taiwan) died in the COVID-19 epidemic less than other countries.
Quote:
In addition, perhaps this may explain that China (including Hong Kong and Taiwan) died in the COVID-19 epidemic less than other countries.
Attached Images Attached Images
What in that Abstract is relevant to the amount of deaths in China? Just sounds like some promising test results.
Trump is addressing the nation as I key this...the only station I can find it on is Faux news. That says a lot on a lot of different levels.
Yeah, most outlets realized he was just using press briefings as political theater and wasn't adding anything of value. Sometimes, he was even causing harm by spreading bad information.
Anyways, I'm more disturbed be the re-infection rate on that aircraft carrier. If those who have had the virus can be re-infected, that's just not a good thing.
Agreed. As I said before "herd immunity" may not be possible and vaccines might be of limited value. We'd have to know why people can get it more than once. Mutations or something else not yet understood?Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker
It really doesn't matter whether it is mutations or something else. The bottom line is that if we can't get free of this, we are SO screwed.
When the SARS epidemic broke out in 2003, Hong Kong was the hardest hit area, followed by Taiwan and Mainland China. In other words, Chinese should have the most SARS antibodies. It is now found that those who acquired antibodies for SARS infection 16 years ago still have antibodies today, and these SARS antibodies can neutralize the current new coronavirus. If this medical research is true, then it perhaps can explain why the number of Chinese deaths is much lower than in other countries. Of course, extreme protection measures taken by the Chinese government are also one of the important reasons for reducing the further spread of the virus. (In addition, if I say that China's medical resources are the most abundant, will anyone think this is a joke? I will further explain China's medical resources and medical system in the future.)Quote:
Originally Posted by wes4dbt
The reason why Wuhan caused a large number of deaths at the beginning of the epidemic was that rumors and panic caused hundreds of thousands of people to flock to the hospitals at the same time, and caused the medical system to collapse. At the same time, it also caused a large number of medical staff to be infected, and these medical staff further infected the people who flocked to the hospital for testing.
If the antibodies caused by the new coronavirus could be maintained for 10 years or even 20 years, it is undoubtedly an excellent thing for the entire world.
At present, the degree and speed of mutation of the new coronavirus is much smaller than that of influenza virus.Quote:
Originally Posted by dilettante
I guess the argument goes:-Quote:
What in that Abstract is relevant to the amount of deaths in China?
1. China and the Far East was hit much harder by SARS than the rest of the world so, presumably, has a much higher level of anti body development
2. From the linked article, anti body immunity to SARS confers some level of immunity to Covid 19.
3. That would explain the relatively low infection and death rates from Covid 19 we've seen in the Far East.
The end to end isn't immediately useful but is, none the less, interesting and point 2 on it's own is a potentially very useful development. I'm sceptical about point 2 as I haven't heard it from anywhere else but it's be great news if it's true because it does imply a much easier path to a vaccine. @Dreamanor, do you have a link to a source on that so we can check it's bona fides?
Is there a link to an article on this. I haven't heard anything about it so I'm curious to have a read.Quote:
I'm more disturbed be the re-infection rate on that aircraft carrier
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2349-yQuote:
Originally Posted by FunkyDexter
Maybe you need to download the PDF in the link and study it patiently. Fangshimin is a Ph.D. in biochemistry from Michigan State University. He often studies these papers, but I won't read them. :D
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uATMbGK__Tg
Summary: flawed testing detecting dead virus, red herring.
No need. The link contains all the authors, they're credible and are mostly based at a credible bio research facility in Northern Italy. That's enough for me to count it as a compelling source.Quote:
Maybe you need to download the PDF in the link and study it patiently
The pertinent sentence in the academic paper is here: "One antibody, named S309, potently neutralizes SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV pseudoviruses as well as authentic SARS-CoV-2 by engaging the S receptor-binding domain."
Looks pretty positive to me, thanks for the link.
So it turns out yesterday's scandal about Trump taking hydroxychloroquine was fake news. He just really likes cookies and got confused.
Another socially-distanced collab for fans:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8GwE0wwMmKE
Here's a link:Quote:
Originally Posted by FunkyDexter
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...navirus-261873
There are plenty more. If all they are doing is testing positive, then it sounds like more of what that Korean study in the video Dilettante posted, found. However, if they are actually getting sick, that would be more disturbing...to some extent. It's still not conclusive. They might have had COVID-19, got better, then caught the flu. They'd get tested a second time, and could still turn up positive due to dead virus, though their symptoms are now flu, not COVID. Since they're young, there might be little or no difference between the manifestation of the two.
Just read through the article. It's interesting and difficult to explain. Dil's linked video to dead viruses giving a positive response does provide a possible explanation but I'm not sure why that wouldn't have given a positive on the two tests they'd each passed - was it a different form of test perhaps? Or carried out under less rigorous circumstances (I imagine the US navy are pretty rigorous at testing sailors before letting them back into a hothouse environment). That definitely bears watching.
Thanks for the link.
Well, considering our experience with testing here in the US, it's hard to be certain what negative tests mean. For one thing, do we know the false negative rate of the tests used? I have a feeling it's a bit high, but not sure. Also, while the navy has a pretty good reputation, it has taken some serious hits of late. The result has come from a practice of stretching people too far. After all, we've had destroyers run into ships in two different occasions in the last year or two, and both times it appears to be ultimately due to fatigue from overwork. So, if the testing is rigorous, but the testers are overloaded, how does that impact test results?
We may never know what those cases came from. Hopefully, the S. Korea study is correct, and these cases were due to errors.
Good news, and yeah I know the source may be dubious but the report seems relatively moderate, for them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gn94RZdkz3Q
Less worry about scrubbing groceries.
I hadn't heard about that but we had a brand new submarine run aground a few years back. A mate of mine was one of the engineers responsible for signing it off immediately before it went to sea. Needless to say we blamed it on a technical error. He says otherwise but the rest of us are pretty sure about it.Quote:
we've had destroyers run into ships in two different occasions in the last year or two
End the lockdowns?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zhQw7vLNsDA
The team led by Chinese scientist Chen Wei seems to have made a major breakthrough in the new coronavirus vaccine.
They're ALL major breakthroughs. It doesn't mean a thing until:
1) One has been shown to work.
B) Many million doses can be created per month.
Take a Look at this nice simulation.
This is an abstract simulation that illustrates how social distancing reduces transmission rate of a contagious agent in a population, such as the virus that causes coronavirus disease. This reduces the number of people demanding medical attention at any given time.
http://ventrella.com/covid19/
Just want to say: Dominic Cummings... what a douche!
I like that simulator reexre. I wouldn't put too much stock into the results (in fact, they tell you not to, that's not what it's for) but it does give a very good demonstration of the basic principles and highlights why measures like the lockdown are so important. If you want to see a particularly sobering example, leave the social distancing turned down and watch what happens when the hospital reaches capacity.
I found the same number dead (16) for three runs with no social distancing, and one run at half distancing. Another run at half distancing ended up with 11 dead.
Dominic Cummings for those that dont know is Boris's Special Adviser, one of the architects of Brexit and the current power behind the PM.Quote:
Just want to say: Dominic Cummings... what a douche!
During in Lockdown he decided to ignore the rules he helped set for everyone else and instead of self isolating at home when he / his wife were developing Covid symptoms, drove 260 miles across the country to his dads estate so he could stay in a nice cottage near his family. He did this apparently so if he and his wife became unable to look after there 4 year old child his nieces could help out. In the end he says they didn't actually need any help with child care.
The problem being firstly this is clearly in breach of the rules set for everyone else and he didn't even try to find alternative child care arrangements in London so he could stay where he was, and then he was seen later after he had recovered from the virus in the local area (to where he was staying) taking a day trip on his wife's birthday to a local beauty spot, when the advise he helped write to everyone else was to stay at home and not do this.
His excuse for this visit was that he was testing his eyesight was ok for the long drive back to London, by driving a 60 mile round trip with his wife and child in the car was one of the most bizarre things i have heard. (and is now an internet meme)
None of this would be a story apart form the fact that Cummings is in the heart of Government designing the rules for everyone else to follow when clearly he sees these same rules dont apply to him, then secondly he held a press conference (which may the first press conference ever by a special adviser) explaining his actions which has only reinforced the fact that he thinks that the rules dont apply to him with the general public.
Boris standing by his special adviser is doing him untold damage politically to the point that over 30 members of his own party have called for Cummings to resign and 1 MP has actually resigned his government post.
It has become the story in the UK ahead of anything else and is dominating the news, currently Boris seems to think he can ride out the storm but the storm doesn't look like dying down anytime soon.
Just to show how this story is continuing to be big news over here is the front page of the Daily Star, a right leaning tabloid paper. its actually pretty funny for them.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/20...-adviser#img-2
Oh come on. Where could the governments chief advisor possibly find child care in central London? What impossibly high standards are you setting? I mean, it's not like the House of Commons has a creche and it's not like he's got an army of civil servants who could have lent a hand...Quote:
and he didn't even try to find alternative child care arrangements in London
oh… wait...
And 20 points of popularity in a day:eek:Quote:
Boris standing by his special adviser is doing him untold damage politically to the point that over 30 members of his own party have called for Cummings to resign and 1 MP has actually resigned his government post.
I better stop criticizing Trump now the he is going after social media:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-t...-idUSKBN2340MW
I'm holding off criticising that until we see what he actually announces. I think we can pretty much guess what it'll look like but I'd rather give him the benefit of the doubt until we actually see it.
After 3 1/2 of lies and buffoonery you are still willing to give him the benefit of the doubt...WOW!Quote:
Originally Posted by FunkyDexter
Yeah i feel we really can in this instance make a pre judgement. We really dont need to know even the detail of what Trump is going to propose on this subject to know 2 things.
1, It wont work, because freedom of speech
2, Trump wont go through with anything that limits his ability to tweet, he is an addict.
At least the Trump Deranged over here have a hero in Sleepy, Creepy Joe:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=krNGqoEoRzY
At least for Joe it was a mistake. For Trump racism is part of his very nature.Quote:
Originally Posted by dilettante
"Mistake." I don't think so, Pervy Joe's record is abysmal including lying about NAACP endorsements, his support of the Clinton Crime Bill, and on and on.
:lol:With Trump I'm happy to wait a day so I can criticise things he actually does rather than things I'm fairly sure he's about to do. I mean, if I want to get my Trump rage fix it's not like there's a lack of concrete material available.Quote:
you are still willing to give him the benefit of the doubt...WOW!
Fair point.Quote:
Originally Posted by FunkyDexter
Even minor celebs are slowly losing it:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7XgY7AlQv_s
Cas is a good guy though. He'll do anything for the fans.
OK so Trump has signed his order.
I don't feel like I understand the implications of this. So regulators can take legal action against the company for the content posted by users. I'm uneasy about that (it seems like it's holding them accountable for something that's not fully under their control) but in an age of miss-information it may not be such a bad thing.
But it seems to me that the person most likely to suffer under this is Trump himself. Surely this means that Twitter et al are more likely to fact check content and, given Trumps propensity misleading and inflammatory statements, he's going to get flagged a whole lot more. Note that Twitter did not actually censor Trump - his content is still there - so he can't make that claim. They simply added an additional information source.
I guess the motivation is that either he thinks he will be the one controlling the regulatory bodies (but that seems like very short term thinking to me) or he's just throwing out a general threat.
Something I don't understand is to be a member of something like Twitter you agree to there terms in exchange to use their platform. If you don't follow their rules you can get kicked off just like here. If I keep using obscenity in my posts here I could be banned. Why isn't that against my free speech? I don't see where Trump can say his free speech is affected when he agreed to the rules.Quote:
Originally Posted by FunkyDexter
I think the difference there is simply reach and the increasing "need" to be on a platform. I know many of us would disagree but you don't need to be on VBF to run for president (though, Si the Geek for President would be a great campaign to run). Realistically you probably do need to be on Twitter, facebook etc. That does make the way Twitter policing it's standards more important.
But I get where you're coming from. He did accept those Ts and Cs and, at least with his Looting Shooting tweet, he definitely broke them. It's hard to take that tweet as anything other than glorifying violence.
You don't have any right to free speech. That's mostly a misstatement of the situation. The GOVERNMENT can't restrict your speech. A private establishment can restrict your speech and behavior while using their establishment. Therefore, VBF can restrict speech because it's not a public platform. The same is true of Twitter, at least so far. However, FD has a good point: Social media is becoming essential for political campaigns, so leaving it as a private entity will create an increasing bind for us. After all, the alternative isn't all that appealing, either.
Trump HAS been censored, now. His tweet inciting violence in MN has been hidden. It then reportedly got re-tweeted by the official white house account, and that has now been hidden, as well.
I'm making popcorn, let the games begin....
I know people love rubbing their own rhubarbs, but isn't this way off topic? Sounds like it needs its own thread.
I'm not claiming I didn't get drawn in myself.
My understanding is that you simply have to press a button to view it. Is that correct? If it is then that's not censorship, in my opinion, as it doesn't prevent anyone from viewing it. The actual removal of the tweet or restricting viewing of it would have been censorship.Quote:
His tweet inciting violence in MN has been hidden
If it stays off topic, perhaps, but it's hardly worth it off the back of half a dozen posts. Even if it stays off topics I'm not sure it would be merited. Discussions meander.Quote:
isn't this way off topic? Sounds like it needs its own thread.
It could be entertaining, but if I was up against Trump then he would be re-elected... I'd rather not risk that!Quote:
Originally Posted by FunkyDexter
Anyway, back to the topic... the lockdown in the UK is starting to end, and it is becoming very segregated already as each individual country (England, Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland) has their own variations of changes. Now you can meet up with other households (at 2m distance), but in England it is limited to 6 people... so you can't have two families with two children meeting up, unless you leave some of the parents at home :eek:
Of course with the "Track and Trace" system (or alternative names) there will now be regional lockdowns etc too, so it's gonna become much more complicated.
I don't know. I have heard it two different ways, and since I don't spend any time on twitter, and never have, I don't know what the terminology means as far as access. I assumed hidden was kind of like what happens when we soft delete something, but perhaps it's just behind a click.Quote:
Originally Posted by FunkyDexter
As for opening up, I'd say that Idaho is 90% back, as far as I can tell. There are some businesses that aren't open, and some places have dispersed seating, but I noticed that masks are pretty much absent anymore. Wal-Mart employees wear them, as they are now required to do, but I see that almost all the Home Depot employees are not. Customers at both places are 90% unmasked, and it may be higher than that.
I hear that South Florida is hopping, too, which means that a second wave is highly likely, at least in some areas. There may never be much of a second wave in Idaho, just like there wasn't much of a first wave. When your population is kind of small, waves don't propagate so easily.
However, if a second wave does hit, it will be worse. The pressure to keep businesses open will be far higher than it was the first time around. Compliance with a second shutdown will be less.
Of course, we may not have a second wave. If that's the case, that's great, otherwise....the second one will really hurt.
I don't see how a second wave would be worse than the first. Unlike the 1918 Spanish Flu it isn't subject to rapid mutation and isn't being carried by massive troop movements.
I'm not saying it would be mild, but it should be milder. For one thing a fraction of the population will have survived it with some immunity, and for another many people will still be observing practices that limit rapid spread that were not in place as the first wave began. As far as health care capacity goes we should be in better shape in terms of experience and medical supplies.
It could still be very bad of course but I don't see how it would be worse even without distribution of effective vaccines before it erupts.
Remember, "flattening the curve" is only about stalling spread so that (1.) health care has some chance of keeping up and thus some ability to provide care for more virulent cases and (2.) vaccines might possibly be developed and implemented at mass scale. The latter was probably always a pipedream, so until 70% to 80% become infected this just won't be over.
The current understanding is that infection survival does confer immunity, at least for a time. This makes herd immunity possible, but we have to get there. Over-isolation would seem to just delay that day along with massive economic impact.
I don't want to catch it either, but I have probably stayed more cautious and isolated than most people.
I agree with Shaggy and Dil,
I don't think the spikes will be as massive, a lot of people have had the virus and the most vulnerable to hospitalization percentage is lower. But I do think it's going to be a lot harder to shut down daily life again, think there would be less compliance.
Remember opinions are free and you get what you pay for.
*My opinions are not fully test and I not responsible for any calamities they may cause.
.
I checked. They didn't censer him. They "hid" his tweet. All that means is that the tweet collapsed to a link labelled view. Clicking the link opens the tweet. Anyone who chooses to view it can.
I think that's the fear, at least, that's what I've been hearing over here and I suspect it's true, at least in the UK.Quote:
I do think it's going to be a lot harder to shut down daily life again, think there would be less compliance
I honestly don't know whether a second spike would be worse. I think you guys are overstating how much immunity will have built up. The number of people who've been infected may be a massive number it's still a very small percentage of the population. Nowhere near enough to confer herd immunity.
On the flip side we will be much better prepared to deal with further outbreaks. We've got much more testing in place. I'm not entirely convinced by the phone apps but the processes and staffing that have been set up for contact tracing are much better than they were four months ago. Localised lockdowns will be difficult to implement but they've got a fighting chance of working.