Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

I posted an article where some expert doctors from Israel say that Omicron will likely end the pandemic (more or less something like that).

And TP answered:

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He also ended the article saying:

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Lahad recommended that people continue masking and keeping distances, “but the main thing is that if you feel even a little sick, stay home and don’t go to the supermarket, your workplace, or school.”

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To what I responded:

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Yeah, but what would be expected? Something like: if you feel you have like a cold, go everywhere and try to infect as many people as possible...

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That was obviously ironic for someone that reads paying attention. But it seems that many people these days answer without paying attention.

That's all. I didn't say "go, get Omicron and then go infect everybody" as he seems to have understood.
Only because reading without paying attention.

My personal position is: take precautions to not get infected, and if you do, try not to infect anyone else.
Even with a cold that would be my position.

Aside from that, Omicron will spread massively anyway.

In September I got a cold.
I was astonished, because I had been caring quite well about isolating, wearing mask, etc.
That made me realize that even if you take care, you can get infected (with something).

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Originally Posted by TysonLPrice

“Never wrestle with pigs. You both get dirty and the pig likes it.”

― George Bernard Shaw

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Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.
-- Mark Twain

Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former.
-- Albert Einstein

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Originally Posted by Eduardo-

If you take the deaths of 2020 and subtract the deaths of 2019, you'll probably will have a good number, close to the real covid deaths.

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Yes, that is exactly what the excess deaths are about. In fact, since deaths were already rising between 10-20 thousand per year in the years leading up to 2020, you can take the deaths of 2020, subtract the deaths of 2019, then subtract another 15,000, since that is the expected increase from 2019. You still end up with an extra 400,000 deaths.

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But if you see the total number of death of covid, they will be more, because anyone that dies being covid positive is counted as death of covid.

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So, are you saying that the total number of reported deaths from COVID will be higher than the excess deaths? If so, you have it backwards. The reported COVID death rate in the US is roughly 20-30% less than the excess deaths.

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OK. The same, and it still didn't occur, but if we could compare the total deaths of 2019 with total deaths of 2022 (or some months), my guess is that they will be similar. But still you'll see an important number of deaths from Omicron because they will count any death while being positive to Omicron as death of covid.

Is is clearer?

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Ah, so you are saying that once 2022 is done with, we'll be back down to 2019 death rates. That would be nice. It may even happen. It seems unlikely, at this point, but 2022 hasn't even started, yet. Still, a drop from 2021 to 2022 would certainly be both expected and a good thing. I don't think it likely that the drop will be all the way back to 2019 levels. That seems overly optimistic, but I do expect the excess deaths to drop by more than half in 2022, and perhaps as much as by three quarters.

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Originally Posted by sapator

Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.
-- Mark Twain

Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former.
-- Albert Einstein

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I'm glad to see you are giving credit for the quotes you use now. This forum does improve people.

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Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker

back to 2019 levels.

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Of course, you also have to take into account the annual growth because the population is growing all the time. I can't expand in all the details to make a point.
Otherwise the post would be so long like the ones I don't read because they are too long and don't go to the point.

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Originally Posted by TysonLPrice

I'm glad to see you are giving credit for the quotes you use now. This forum does improve people.

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I do because some people are not able to know the basic quotes.I will also take Twain's advice now...

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Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker

The reported COVID death rate in the US is roughly 20-30% less than the excess deaths.

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I think I've read that particularly in the US, the covid deaths were underestimated (not the situation in other countries).
Other interpretation would be that the excess deaths were because many people didn't receive medical attention because health system were only interested in treating covid cases.

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Originally Posted by sapator

I do because some people are not able to know the basic quotes.I will also take Twain's advice now...

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In seriously doubt that...you can't help yourself.

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Originally Posted by Eduardo-

I think I've read that particularly in the US, the covid deaths were underestimated (not the situation in other countries).
Other interpretation would be that the excess deaths were because many people didn't receive medical attention because health system were only interested in treating covid cases.

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I think that was early on... and mostly due to the lack of the ability to test for it at the time. Other places probably went the other route, and marked it as a Covid death regardless since "it could have been, we don't know" ...*shrug* but that's conjecture.

-tg

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Originally Posted by techgnome

I think that was early on... and mostly due to the lack of the ability to test for it at the time. Other places probably went the other route, and marked it as a Covid death regardless since "it could have been, we don't know" ...*shrug* but that's conjecture.

-tg

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Here, as I understand, if the person was covid positive, the cause of death is automatically covid.

My only point was that because of that rule, there will be people reported as deaths from Omicron.

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Originally Posted by Eduardo-

My only point was that because of that rule, there will be people reported as deaths from Omicron.

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But some people (that read too fast) understood that I was saying that covid didn't cause deaths, or whatever.

Too much prejudice, and too little attention.

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Originally Posted by Eduardo-

My only point was that because of that rule, there will be people reported as deaths from Omicron.

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If they are still doing that ... I'd hope they were fewer and father than before. I'm not saying that they aren't doing it, because that wouldn't surprise me. But seems like a crappy thing to do.

-tg

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Originally Posted by TysonLPrice

In seriously doubt that...you can't help yourself.

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Well sapator...I thought reverse psychology would goad you into a response. You win on that one :o

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlo...ccine-mandate/

for the lazy:

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Natural immunity to covid is powerful. Policymakers seem afraid to say so.
More than 15 studies have demonstrated the power of immunity acquired by previously having the virus. A 700,000-person study from Israel two weeks ago found that those who had experienced prior infections were 27 times less likely to get a second symptomatic covid infection than those who were vaccinated.

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Originally Posted by TysonLPrice

Well sapator...I thought reverse psychology would goad you into a response. You win on that one :o

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No, I saw you coming from miles away. But seriously don't bash people on a personal level we are better than that(not me, you can bash me all you like).

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Originally Posted by Eduardo-

Of course, you also have to take into account the annual growth because the population is growing all the time. I can't expand in all the details to make a point.
Otherwise the post would be so long like the ones I don't read because they are too long and don't go to the point.

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For the US, the annual growth is probably not quite the cause. I think the rise in annual mortality that the US has seen in the years leading up to COVID were based on two factors, neither of which has slowed all that much:
1) We're getting older. As the baby boom generation is now pretty much all retired and getting older, a big slug of the population is now reaching the age where mortality ramps up. The following generations were smaller, and with a birth rate well below replacement values, our population will continue to age. Eventually, this will reach an equilibrium followed by a declining mortality rate, but that's probably another decade or two out.

2) There has been a SERIOUS spike in drug overdose deaths largely driven by prescription opioids followed by a shift to fentanyl. If COVID wasn't around, this cause of death would be the biggest news item. It still gets some press. Frankly, I'm not seeing that getting better any time soon. We're quite a mess on that subject.

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Originally Posted by Eduardo-

I think I've read that particularly in the US, the covid deaths were underestimated (not the situation in other countries).
Other interpretation would be that the excess deaths were because many people didn't receive medical attention because health system were only interested in treating covid cases.

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The Economist looked at underreporting in lots of countries by comparing excess death rates against reported COVID deaths. The US isn't all that bad, by that measure. What we ARE bad in is the total death rate. Our country is large and fairly well populated, but it's not THAT big....and yet our COVID death rate leads the league tables. We're number 1!! Woo hoo!

Still, there are some other countries, such as Russia and India, where the official death toll from COVID is WAAAAAYYY below the excess death count. We'll have to wait a bit to see how the numbers come out for India, of course, since their spike in deaths would be in 2021, not 2020.

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Originally Posted by sapator

No, I saw you coming from miles away. But seriously don't bash people on a personal level we are better than that(not me, you can bash me all you like).

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GOT YOU...HA!, HA, HA!!!! So much for Mark Twain...

You fell right into the reverse-reverse psychology. You made my day :D

How old are you???

Remember when I said:

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I seriously doubt that...you can't help yourself.

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It was so easy to bring you back. Do you just see how full of yourself you are...it makes it easy :cool:

Sapator is only 14. He'll deny it, of course. You know how he is, but it's true. He joined the forum before he was born, cause he's really clever that way.

Yep, he got me! Using that reverse double...Dragon thingy. :p

I'm 14 at heart! But for God shake don't let me do the army again!

They just doubled the cases in 24h from 15 to 30K!
That justified more measures that they took like thief's at 6 in the morning.

This is an initial study from Denmark for O vaccination.
If I read that correctly and from what it's written an initial vaccine dose gives 55% protection the first month and then after 1-2 months if falls down to 10%, even negative for higher ages (meaning vaccinated are more likely to catch the virus than the unvaccinated).

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....20.21267966v2
https://www.rebelnews.com/denmark_st..._catch_omicron

Granted it's an initial study so we will have to wait but if that is the case, what vaxbies gonna do?...Back to the basements, away!!!

https://www.bitchute.com/video/dYaLExqwee8/

I'm crossing-my-fingers-and-hoping that Omicron dominates all prior variants and ends up being relatively mild, as it currently looks like it will.

As Olaf mentioned earlier in this thread (and I agreed), we're all going to get Covid eventually, vaccinated or not. So if it's inevitable and mild, why not just let it run rampant?

I think there is one good reason not to. If everyone starts getting Omicron within a couple of months (however "mild"), they'll have to take time off work. This could pose a real threat to the health-care system in particular. Pre-Covid would surgeons/doctors/nurses/janitors just go to work with a cold/flu? Or were they expected to take time off? What will happen 50% of the hospital staff came down with a cold/flu in a short period? What happens if 50% of hospital staff worldwide comes down with a cold/flu within a short period?

Lastly an interesting stat for the anti-vaccination crowd. In my province, ~65 of people in ICU are unvaccinated, while ~35 are fully/partially vaccinated. Considering >80% of the population is vaccinated, that's pretty telling.

And how exactly will we stop it from rampant?I don't see no country stopping it 2 years now, except maybe China, if they are telling the truth or ignoring the latest mutations.
Even with all our precautions, vaccinations lockdowns , covid is looking at us laughing it's spikes off. It will become endemic whenever he chooses to , possibly on omicron or the next one.

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Originally Posted by sapator

And how exactly will we stop it from rampant?I don't see no country stopping it 2 years now, except maybe China, if they are telling the truth or ignoring the latest mutations.
Even with all our precautions, vaccinations lockdowns , covid is looking at us laughing it's spikes off. It will become endemic whenever he chooses to , possibly on omicron or the next one.

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Just like World War II, killing militants in Japan, Italy, and Germany at the beginning may not trigger a global war in the next 10 years. Preventing the spread of the virus is the most effective only in the first place. At first, only 10-100 people were infected in China, and finally Wuhan became 50,000 confirmed people. Now there are many foreign and domestic infectious persons in Xi'an. If they are not controlled, they may grow into several thousand.
Xi'an was closed again, and the pause button was almost pressed for the entire city. The world has not controlled the epidemic, on the contrary, China has become the biggest victim. People from other countries will continue to infect the Chinese.

Isolate, prevent proliferation, pay attention to hygiene, and vaccinate everyone to minimize the degree of harm.

In fact, the virus this time is not terrible enough, with a mortality rate of about 4%. If 10-100 variants are produced, a super virus is produced, and the mortality rate is 10-30%, just like chicken disease and swine fever, all of them die. Only at such a terrible level can the United States and the United Kingdom take epidemic prevention seriously.

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Originally Posted by jpbro

I'm crossing-my-fingers-and-hoping that Omicron dominates all prior variants and ends up being relatively mild, as it currently looks like it will.

As Olaf mentioned earlier in this thread (and I agreed), we're all going to get Covid eventually, vaccinated or not. So if it's inevitable and mild, why not just let it run rampant?

I think there is one good reason not to. If everyone starts getting Omicron within a couple of months (however "mild"), they'll have to take time off work. This could pose a real threat to the health-care system in particular. Pre-Covid would surgeons/doctors/nurses/janitors just go to work with a cold/flu? Or were they expected to take time off? What will happen 50% of the hospital staff came down with a cold/flu in a short period? What happens if 50% of hospital staff worldwide comes down with a cold/flu within a short period?

Lastly an interesting stat for the anti-vaccination crowd. In my province, ~65 of people in ICU are unvaccinated, while ~35 are fully/partially vaccinated. Considering >80% of the population is vaccinated, that's pretty telling.

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One thing that I haven't seen is how common it is to lose one's sense of smell. That's what I'm most concerned about. It would certainly decrease quality of life.

As far as I have heard the "loss of ability to smell" symptom was not very common with Delta and almost not a thing any more with Omicron.

This short video goes into the demographic shift... in passing:

https://youtu.be/bgTCWvZeDs4

The main topic here is the US workforce, but the two are intertwined.

Compared to most of the world, the US does not have as big a problem with aging. It's certainly there, but it's far milder than in other parts of the world.

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One thing that I haven't seen is how common it is to lose one's sense of smell. That's what I'm most concerned about. It would certainly decrease quality of life.

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I believe you, you've mentioned that concern several times. lol

Here in the US our new covid cases are jumping higher and higher, up @ 78% in a week. Our hospitalizations are going up but not as much as the new cases. The daily deaths are fairly steady so far but that always lags by @ a couple of weeks so we will have to wait and see. I've sort of adopted a wait and see attitude anyway.

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Originally Posted by sapator

And how exactly will we stop it from rampant?I don't see no country stopping it 2 years now, except maybe China, if they are telling the truth or ignoring the latest mutations.
Even with all our precautions, vaccinations lockdowns , covid is looking at us laughing it's spikes off. It will become endemic whenever he chooses to , possibly on omicron or the next one.

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We can't completely stop it, but I think there are measures we can take to spread it out. We're all going to get it since omicron is basically infecting exponentially now, but I think there is value in trying to make sure we all don't get it at once (more or less). Or perhaps not? Maybe it's better for everyone to get it over the next month or so, have society basically collapse for a few weeks and then try to quickly rebuild once it has run its course?

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We can completely stop it

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Did you mean, We CAN'T completely stop it

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Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker

One thing that I haven't seen is how common it is to lose one's sense of smell. That's what I'm most concerned about. It would certainly decrease quality of life.

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Back in October (about a month after my kids went back to school), the whole family got a "cold" within a day or two of each other. I was 75% sure it was Covid, as I expected to get it once the kids went back to school. A couple of days later, I completely lost my sense of smell. At that point I was 99.9% sure it was Covid. No one else in the house had that symptom, but I tried smelling all sorts of things (Windex, Vinegar, etc...) but nothing. Interestingly I could still "taste" kind of saltiness/fattiness in certain foods, so it wasn't completely terrible. My kids and I all took a PCR test at the hospital (because they weren't allowed back to school without a negative test) and surprisingly we all came back negative for Covid. Anyway, the loss of taste/smell lasted less than 48 hours, so it was just kind of an interesting experience but no big deal.

I don't know enough about the PCR tests to know if they would have missed an early Omicron infection, or if it was just a bad cold we caught that was exacerbated by our immune systems being half asleep by being isolated for 1.5 years.

That said, if the loss of taste/smell was a permanent thing, I would be mega-bummed out.

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Originally Posted by wes4dbt

Did you mean, We CAN'T completely stop it

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Gah, I absolutely meant that! Sorry.

I have lost the sense of smell many times when I was ill in the past, so it is not sure you had covid.
I can't recall lost of taste,maybe,maybe not, but as I've read it's also not only a covid privilege.
I was always on the "do nothing" side , we had a few scrumbles with that but I won't go into it. So yes I would prefer a full getter, even more at this point that O seems like a good little covid but I'm almost positive from what I have seen read and heard that even if we do get it, they will still find something to keep us(them) vaccinated and with measures.
So a better approach would be the bibliography to get out that will prove that O is less harmful and also that these vaccines do nothing (waiting for more reports added to the Danish initial one). Then there would be no reason for lock or vax. That day would be the day that the hunt of the vaxbies will begin. :duck:

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Originally Posted by jpbro

Lastly an interesting stat for the anti-vaccination crowd. In my province, ~65 of people in ICU are unvaccinated, while ~35 are fully/partially vaccinated. Considering >80% of the population is vaccinated, that's pretty telling.

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I personally think, these numbers are "made up", because they just "magically appear" in the statistics of most countries.

For example in germany, I cannot for the hell of it - find any CSV-File which lists in detail:
- which concrete ICU-unit reported this
- from which "county" or "region"

Do you find such a detailed CSV- or XL-File for Canada? ... I guess not.

What we do have though is "the deaths" (which I still assume, is a metric they can lie about the least).

Please apply simple logic and math here for the moment - on these specific numbers for Canada:
- you had two "significant waves" so far (not counting the last one, where Omicron might play a role)
- the first, peaking in Mid April 2021
- the second, peaking in Mid September 2021

So let's look roughly two weeks later (after both peaks), at the dates of May 1 2021 and Oct 1 2021 respectively.

May1:
- double-vaccination-rate: 3%
- Daily-Deaths-per-Million: 1.25 people
- Case-Fatality-rate: 0.56%

Oct1:
- double-vaccination-rate: 71%
- Daily-Deaths-per-Million: 1.11 people
- Case-Fatality-rate: 0.97%

If there really is a significant "efficiency" to be had from vaccination, how do you explain these numbers?

The absolute death-rate (per capita) was only affected slightly (a decrease of about 12% or so).
Why?

And the case-fatality-rate in October (where 71% were already vacced) is now going up?
(it nearly doubled, compared to the nearly "unvacced" scenario in May).

Ok - the Case-fatality depends also on testing-efforts - and it seems they under-tested in Sep/Oct by quite a bit...
And I also guess the D-Variant (which was present in Oct.) also played a role (with slightly increased deadliness)...

But what about the absolute number of "deaths-per-capita" remaining nearly unchanged (shortly after the peak of two quite similar waves)?

Is it just me who finds this highly disturbing?

Because I can for the hell of it, not find the promised "90% efficiency in now 71% of the population", in these numbers (1.25 vs. 1.11) here.

Olaf

(strangely most of my post nobody cares to reply, could be many reasons)

if "unvaccinated" would be over-representative it would show in 2021, comparing to 2020 (when most death occurred in elderly homes, it was a nation-wide wipe of old and sick people, and that was a tragedy)

2021 : 75 660 (10 months so far) if the last 2 months will be at the same rate, we would get around 90-91k
2020 : 98 124
2019 : 88 766
2018 : 92 185
2017 : 91 972
2016 : 90 982
2015 : 90 907

this show that amount of death 2021 is on par with 2015-2016.
how can that be, since the media is telling that we have some many people in ICU.
but it seems nobody is dying. at least not in any elevated level.

I agree with Dr. Malone (the inventor of mRna vaccine)
https://www.bitchute.com/video/dYaLExqwee8/

that the vaccine should "ONLY" be given to elderly and sick and only if theres no other way.
and let the doctors use the medicine that works for the sick instead of creating a "vaccine-only" approach.
watch the video and listen yourself.