Windows 8 U-Turn

What a Windows 8 U-turn will mean for the PC

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Windows 8 hasn't given PC sales the boost that OEMs were anticipating, and Microsoft is now rumored to be getting ready to do a U-turn on some of the core changes introduced. What effect will this have on the wider industry?

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If Win8.1/Blue really does restore the Start Menu and allow users to choose "boot to Desktop" this may have many implications.

It might help a lot of companies and individuals seriously consider upgrading from pre-8 Windows versions.

It might spell doom for Metro ("modern") applets and the MS AppStore as their visibility fades..

If Win8.1 catches on Microsoft usage metrics may reveal usage patterns showing there is no reason to include RT at all anymore, so Win9 might lose RT/Metro entirely. Can you say "Office Assistant (Clippy)?" "Microsoft Bob?" "Active Desktop?" "Sidebar Gadgets?" "The Ribbon?"

Ok, the last hasn't departed yet either from Office or Win7 onward. Then again a lot of people are still running pre-Win7 as well as pre-2007 Office too. Will Ribbon controls become the next polarizing UI doodad to be thrown under the bus to improve sales?

I think the ribbon is not doomed, as it extends the accessibility of features when used properly. As for the others....they may well be doomed. Frankly, I think that the best bet for MS is to get better hardware into tablets rather than trying to turn Windows into something that would theoretically work on tablets or desktops. I have some things that would make sense on a tablet, but not yet. The tablet needs more power to be able to run desktop quality graphics. At the moment, that would mean XNA, which probably isn't a viable option at the moment. It will be eventually, but it may be gone by that time, so it might be "something other than GDI that utilizes the graphics hardware to do much faster graphics that GDI can't handle."

Well the topic is really more like "Will changes overcome the Win8 fiasco to help Windows remain viable in a world of already declining PC sales?"

But I can't tell whether your comments are in regard to Win8 RT on ARM tablets or full Win8 on x86/64 tablets.

The main things people want from a tablet (after working well enough to be usable of course) are light weight, long battery life, and low cost. Right now the ARM-based devices have a significant advantage in these areas. Both Intel and AMD (as well as VIA and probably others) are trying to improve their mobile CPU and GPU product lines to be more competitive.

However those are really all hardware issues and nothing that Windows 8 or Windows 8.1 or anything in the future can have much impact on. I really don't expect to see Microsoft focusing on gaming hardware outside the XBox product line. But who can say? Perhaps they'll come up with a tablet form-factor product series there.

It is possible that Windows on a PC will not be the most common software/hardware platform, but suggesting that it won't remain viable is kind of bizarre. Everything ends, and eventually Windows will, too, so it does eventually make sense, but not yet. Computers are not improving as rapidly as they were a decade ago, and they are considerably more reliable. This reduces the need to replace them as quickly as was once the case. They also run all general office software effectively instantly. Twenty years back, you'd take a few minutes to update a spreadsheet graph (if you could even create one). These days, there is enough reserve processing power to check your typing between keystrokes. How much more power will your typical business user need? Therefore, there is a saturation point followed by a general decline in new sales, but until it makes sense for the average workplace to switch to tablets, the desktop will still be around. I'm sure some people can point to specific businesses where that is already the case, but it is even easier to point to businesses where that is not now the case, and may never be. I have two sizeable monitors on my system, and I want MORE screen area, not less. In fact, I don't know a single person at a single company who is saying, "I have too much screen space at the moment, I'd really like a MUCH smaller screen."

Microsoft wanted to be all things to all people with one system. That's not a bad plan, as a general rule, as it would be pretty convenient to be able to use your desktop as you use your mobile device, but you also want to be able to use your desktop as you would your desktop, and there are still good reasons to have a desktop. Tablets currently won't run the programs I write, and not because I don't want them to. In one case, the hardware is not adequate, in another case, there is no sound reason to use a tablet for the application. In both cases, there is an advantage to having a larger screen.

I agree that for the vast majority of people the hardware is powerful enough and reliable enough now that replacing PCs by new ones is on a much longer cycle than 10 years ago. Many PCs purchased 5 or 7 years ago are still powerful enough for anything most people need to do. Market saturation is high now too so most businesses and households have as many desktops and laptops per person as they'll ever have a need for. Phones and tablets are filling in the gaps where additional PCs might have once been "nice to have."

So those and other factors have slowed PC sales to below what was once seen as replacement levels.


Along came Win8 and it seems to have dampaned sales even more. As a response it now appears that Windows Blue (Windows 8.1) coming later this year will reverse some of the design decisions made for Win8.

This is the "U-turn" under discussion.

I have just read this:

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Windows 8 users hoping for a return of the traditional Start button and Start menu in Windows 8.1 may be disappointed.
Rumors have floated recently that Microsoft may revive the familiar Start button in the Windows 8.1 update scheduled for release later this year. A new report today from The Verge claims that "sources familiar with Microsoft's plans" have confirmed the return of the Start button.
But -- and there always seems to be a "but" -- the new Start button apparently will not trigger a traditional Start menu but instead simply bounce users back to the Start screen, according to The Verge's sources. If true, that means the button would serve the same role as the Start screen thumbnail that appears when you move your mouse to the lower left "hot" corner.
Excuse me? Assuming The Verge's sources are correct, I guess such a Start button would benefit people who don't know they can access the Start screen thumbnail by hovering over the left corner. Otherwise, I don't see the advantage in a Start button that just brings you back to the Start screen.

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Here's the link:
http://news.cnet.com/8301-10805_3-57...al-start-menu/

Can't tell whether this is confirming or parroting the same original source of the rumor:

Microsoft's Blue: What will developers do?

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Right now, we don't know exactly how the Start Button, if and when it returns to Windows 8 with Blue, will work. Word is that it will simply take users to the Metro Start Screen and not open up the Start Menu (with access to commonly used programs, files, etc.). If this is the case, the Start Button will function as more of a familiar "anchor," designed to calm users' worries about the unfamiliarity of the new Windows 8 interface. This new Start Button will send users to the Metro Start Screen, not the Desktop (again, if rumors are true), so -- in theory at least -- it won't be signaling that Microsoft is backtracking about its Metro commitments.

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But considering the state of Microsoft today nothing would surprise me. They'll do anything to try to breathe life into their failed Windows Phone platform, and that may be a larger part of the Win8 Metro fiasco than many think.