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May 16th, 2012, 06:59 AM
#11
Re: World War
I read a few comments in one of the issues of 'The Economist' on the elections in some European countries, including Greece and France, and the tone indicates that the mood is slowly swinging towards getting out of the European Union and going solo (the author has actually said these countries would shut themselves out of the rest of the world). So the EU won't get involved into any wars, most likely there won't be any EU in the next few years.
My personal prediction is that they'll bomb out of the Euro but stay in the EU. Technically the rules of the Euro say that if you leave the Euro you have to leave the EU as well but that rule was created as a deterrent to stop people leaving the Euro rather than somehow protect the EU; there are plenty of countries (UK for example) who are part of the EU but never joined the Euro in the first place. With that in mind I think the rules will be relaxed and Greece will be allowed to remain in one while quitting the other. After all, having them leave the Euro is going to be damaging enough (and not just to Greece) so why further that damage by forcing them out of the EU.
Alternatively, Germany may get it's head around the fact that, if it wants the trading advantages it undeniably gets from having a stable Euro, the price is going to be to pay for Greece's deficit, at least until Greece can get back on it's feet. And there's no point in forcing austerity measures on them because, the truth is, they just can't afford to maintain them.
If a coin flip would be more accurate, I wouldn't call that a prediction, I'd call it a guess.
True. I started that post thinking maybe 20 years was short enough to make a prediction then, as I started thinking of examples, I started realising that it just isn't. A bit of careless editing left me making a non-sensical opening statement 
Maybe game theory will help, but I have no clue what it is. Might as well learn it!
Sonic's better than Mario. That's all you need to know.
The best argument against democracy is a five minute conversation with the average voter - Winston Churchill
Hadoop actually sounds more like the way they greet each other in Yorkshire - Inferrd
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