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Thread: Ouch

  1. #1

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    Ouch

    A couple more days of 2,000+ points market drops and I'll have to come out of retirement. Luckily I still have my uniform in the closet. Just need a little practice,

    Would you like fries with that?

    Would you like to super size that?

    Place pull forward.

  2. #2
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: Ouch

    Quote Originally Posted by wes4dbt View Post

    Place pull forward.

    Ooooo, that's not looking good, for you. Hope the market rebounds, cause you're looking a bit rusty there.
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    Super Moderator RobDog888's Avatar
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    Re: Ouch

    The market will recover as its just media hype for ratings. You only lose if you sell. Dividend payments will go back up once the market recovers. I may buy some Ford stock as its in the $5 range now. It will take some years but it should get back up to a $12+ price doubling my money.

    There is no such thing as retirement for the majority of people as its just work until you die. Not many can afford to retire
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    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: Ouch

    You certainly shouldn't sell in a down market like this. It WILL come back up, but it may take several years to reach the heights it was at prior to this sell off. I felt it was too high at that time, so I expected a correction for some reason, with a slower rebound. The rebound will happen, though, but it may be delayed considerably.

    I don't agree that this is media hype. I seriously doubt that the major players, such as pension funds, hedge funds, and asset managers, are panicking over a few headlines. I believe that they looked at the impact on global productivity of a few different things, and headed for safety. They'll eventually return, since bond yields are so very low, but it will take a firm belief that productivity is on the rebound. That's not the case, currently. China is only starting to get going again, while the EU and South Korea are likely going to get worse before they start getting better. Meanwhile, with Russia and the Saudis flooding the market with cheap oil, US producers are going to get killed.

    Yeah, there's plenty of reason for big investors to move money out of the market, at the moment. That's not media hype, it's an assessment of what the next few months will bring. The big question is whether or not things come right back, or you end up with a global recession as the larger institutions are suggesting is likely.
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    Re: Ouch

    Media hype as in the media will hype it up for ratings but that affects us indirectly. It was even stated during the crash that it was media fears driving painc selling as the economy may take a slow dlow due to lack of imported merchandise which will create a drop in sales. Sick workers wont be able to work so less money to spend which will further slow the economy. This is why the fed dropped the interest rate by 0.5% in hopes of preventing the slowdown.

    I already have a slow down starting and forecasted as I will be running out of one of my products I get imported from China. No workers over there to work and produce the product, no workers to ship. I will be out of stock for several months. My 3d printer is delayed months now from shipping too.

    Semi-off topic but I did read an article that this virus is the straw that broke the camels back of China being the leading world manufacturer. Mexico is poised to take their place and is the best solution as they are ready and closer logistically top the US.
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    Re: Ouch

    I sold off most of my higher risk account (in case of another 15-20% drop), took a small hit but it was acceptable, now I have enough cash to let my other accounts sit for a couple of years and recover if I need to. It was bad planning on my part not having enough cash reserves. If your young, you can ignore these sell offs but at a certain age you can't wait 10-15 years for the market to recover. I plan on pulling out a significant amount of my investments within 10yrs. I want to spend it before I end up in a nursing home and they take it all. Seen that happen to many times.

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    Re: Ouch

    Yeah, I can see that media hype could cause a drop in consumer confidence, thereby reducing consumption. Consumer behavior has been keeping our economy buoyant of late, especially domestic consumption. What I expect is that domestic consumption will become pretty much all of it, for a while. Still, I think the hype goes FAR beyond the media, in this case. My state has zero confirmed cases, at this point, but we're getting the hype from the governor.

    It's an interesting dilemma for someone like a governor. If you have no cases, but a fair likelihood of there being cases at some point in the future, do you reassure people or do you caution. If you caution, you risk an overreaction. If you don't caution, you risk an overreaction. Which one will do the more harm?

    I'd say that it would benefit this country in several different ways if we were able to shift our supply chains to Mexico. I'm just not sure that it would work. The reason that China was such an effective supplier was the abundant cheap labor. As incomes over there increased, they became less appealing, as the cost of labor was going up. If it got high enough, the cost of shipping, and other logistic expenses, would outweigh the cheaper cost of labor. Mexico would have the same issue, except that the shipping and logistic costs are lower coming from Mexico (shorter trips), so the labor costs can get higher before Mexico becomes unappealing. Still, it will get there. Manufacturing will keep pursuing cheap labor as long as it is there to pursue.
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    Re: Ouch

    Mexico does have cheap labor and has been growing with US companies moving factories into MX. The main problem is that MX is not very safe. You run the risk of kidnapping, robbery and extortion from the drug lords and Federales. It was stated that if MX was even 1/2 as safe as China they would have already taken over the leader position as world supplier.
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    Re: Ouch

    There are lots of places in Asia with large populations that could replace a lot of China's industry. But those are long term projects but in the short term there isn't an immediate replacement so it's hard to say what the market will do. Between the virus and the oil wars it's hard to say how large of negative response the market will have and for how long. Maybe we've already hit bottom and are on our way back up, hope so. But I'm keeping my neck off the chopping block for a while.

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    Re: Ouch

    Manufacturing will keep pursuing cheap labor as long as it is there to pursue.
    Dead right and look to Africa as the next great manufacturing power house. Guess who's heavily invested in Africa?
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    Re: Ouch

    I disagree, its Mexico. Africa is just to under developed to come up to speed in time before others

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    Re: Ouch

    Africa is slowly fixing its corruption problem, but it's a continent, not a country, so different places are moving at different speeds. As far as the US is concerned, Mexico would make more sense, as far as I can see. That bit about rail connections is fairly compelling.
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    Re: Ouch

    Yea it takes 5 days for a container from Mexico to get to NY vs 20 days via container ship from China
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    Re: Ouch

    It would also be possible to shrink that time if volume increased. As it is, there's a limit as to how much infrastructure to throw at the problem. If volume went up, there would be incentive to add rail lines. Meanwhile, there isn't all that much improvement that is likely for shipping. More ships, sure, but loading and unloading are likely bottlenecks.

    Anyways, the market is melting down again. I wonder where this will end. I felt that a DOW of 25,000 to 26,000 seemed about right, but we're well below that already.
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    Re: Ouch

    Yeah, I've given up trying to predict the market. What surprises me is how short peoples memories are about the market. The 08/09 crash took @5yrs to recover, the Nasdaq crash in 2000 took @17yrs and the DOW was at @ 7,500 in '66 then dropped and took till '95 to reach 7,500 again, 29yrs. The market does always rebound, it's a matter of how much time it takes. But we are in a tough place when it comes to retirement planning, there's really no other choices that pay more than the cost of living increase. If your willing to lock into a 5 or 10 yr CD or Bond then it pays above the cost of living increase, but not by enough to really grow your investment significantly. At my age, if I could find a no risk investment that pays 5%, that's where all my money would be.

    All we can really do now is hope for a quick rebound.

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    Re: Ouch

    The US should invade Mexico, I'm surprised they haven't already. They did it before and now it is called Texas. It works.

    It might help both economies.

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    Re: Ouch

    Quote Originally Posted by yereverluvinuncleber View Post
    The US should invade Mexico, I'm surprised they haven't already. They did it before and now it is called Texas. It works.

    It might help both economies.
    If you look at the history, it would be more similar if Mexico invaded the US. Texas was made up of a large number of US immigrants legal and otherwise, who decided to opt for independence. The US only annexed Texas after the Texians had beaten the bombastic president of Mexico.

    I would say there are more Mexican immigrants in the US than US immigrants in Mexico.
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    Re: Ouch

    The market is certainly interesting today.
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    Re: Ouch

    So where is the bottom going to be????

    21,000
    18,000

    Or is it 1929 here we come!!!

    I have the Deer in the Headlights feeling. Just frozen, unable to make a move.

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    Re: Ouch

    Not making a move feels about right, to me.
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    Re: Ouch

    How long are ya willing to wait??? Is there anything that would make you sell?

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    Re: Ouch

    Not at this point. I'm nearing retirement, but not there, yet. Realistically, I don't have to touch any of my stock holdings for six years, minimum, and ten would be fine. Therefore, I'm certainly better off holding.

    At this point, if you sell, you lock in your losses. If you MUST have the cash, then, yeah, you're kind of screwed, but if you don't need the cash in the next year, then hold. Even if this is not the bottom, it will likely be higher in a year. However, it has long been advised that you start moving more into bonds as you near retirement. I use a bond fund as my rainy day fund, since it returns better than a bank account. With people pouring into bonds, the yields have mostly dropped (though they, oddly, rose yesterday and today, by tiny amounts), which means the value has gone up. While I have no desire to see how my stock-heavy 401K is doing, my rainy day fund has barely dropped at all. It has dropped a bit, because one of the funds is a mixed stock and bond fund, while the other is strictly bonds. Still, the drop is around 2%, which doesn't bother me any.
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  23. #23
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: Ouch

    We could set a record one day drop in the DOW today, if the current numbers hold out. Unfortunately, the record that will be broken is one that was set just Monday.
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    Re: Ouch

    This makes me worry as we start our refi. Increasing our payment drastically is very risky in this scenario where the corona virus can stagnate or even wipe out our growing economy and thus our employment income. I dont like risking committing to the loan but rates will rebound soon and only depending upon how bad the economy is will dictate how much they increase and how fast but nevertheless they will increase.

    We are gonna save nearly $200,00 in interest vs our current 30 year mortgage. Its a must no matter how I evaluate the situation and nearing retirement in the next 10-15 years

    My wife is a school teacher and already got word to prepare for remote teaching as kids will stay home and do lesson plans sent in via email or such. At my work we are preparing to have employees work from home which means my website needs to sustain all tasks and activities which are done at work. Its nearly there but it would be just weeks away from an outbreak, who knows.
    Last edited by RobDog888; Mar 12th, 2020 at 03:49 PM.
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    Re: Ouch

    You can always overpay, which is what I did for the most part. However, I would guess that the interest rate drop that you'd see will be sufficiently large that it would be better than simply overpaying. I had always overpaid, but once I could drop the interest by 2%, it still made more sense than just overpaying. The overpay route saved a bundle in interest payments, though.
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    Re: Ouch

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker View Post
    You can always overpay, which is what I did for the most part. However, I would guess that the interest rate drop that you'd see will be sufficiently large that it would be better than simply overpaying. I had always overpaid, but once I could drop the interest by 2%, it still made more sense than just overpaying. The overpay route saved a bundle in interest payments, though.
    Yea I plan on using the rental house income to make an extra payment every other month once that house is paid off in 7.5 years. This will mean on our primary house it will get extra payments starting at 7.5 years in and the loan will be paid off at the 12.5 year mark.
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    Re: Ouch

    WOW, An incredible amount of things are being canceled or shutdown. No gathering over 1200, 250, 1000 depending on where you live. This has to cause an enormous amount of lost revenue and jobs. My guess is this market plunge is far from over, I wouldn't be surprised if it drops another 15-20%. I do think there will be some recovery in @3 months once the panic is over and we get a handle on dealing with the virus. But don't think we'll see 29,000 again for a long time.

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    Re: Ouch

    Quote Originally Posted by RobDog888 View Post
    Yea it takes 5 days for a container from Mexico to get to NY vs 20 days via container ship from China
    I wonder if the wall will get in the way once it is done...
    Please remember next time...elections matter!

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    Re: Ouch

    If you are in a position to do so... as things bottom this could be a good time for Roth Conversions. With valuation shrunken the tax hit is less, then when things recover later on you have the tax benefit of Roth plans. Sell low, but buy low, then await recovery.

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    Re: Ouch

    I just read, not sure if 100% accurate, that all the economic gains for trumps presidency have been wiped out now. Some 11.5 billion I think it stated. Maybe the dems in their disgust for him finally found a way to trash the us economy like they wanted to try to oust trump?
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    Re: Ouch

    Quote Originally Posted by TysonLPrice View Post
    I wonder if the wall will get in the way once it is done...
    It can go through the back door
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  32. #32
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    Re: Ouch

    Quote Originally Posted by RobDog888 View Post
    I just read, not sure if 100% accurate, that all the economic gains for trumps presidency have been wiped out now. Some 11.5 billion I think it stated. Maybe the dems in their disgust for him finally found a way to trash the us economy like they wanted to try to oust trump?
    I believe what they mean is that all the gains in the stock market since Trump was elected have now been wiped away. The amount should be FAR higher than 11.5 billion. In fact, if I am remembering it right, I think you are only off by one letter. The 'b' should be a 't'.

    I also think that a recession is inevitable, at this point. The harm to manufacturing is just too great for us not to have at least one quarter of downturn, and a second quarter is pretty likely. Two consecutive quarters makes a recession, so I'm expecting that.

    I'm also expecting a rebound, though I like what Dilettante suggested. It really WOULD be a good time to make certain types of moves, like that.

    I just paid more in income tax than I ever have. Partly, that's due to low withholding, but the big cost was capital gains that weren't taxed. That's pretty ironic, since I feel pretty confident that I'll be taking a massive capital loss by next tax season. May not do me any good, though. My taxes are too simple.
    Last edited by Shaggy Hiker; Mar 13th, 2020 at 11:54 AM.
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  33. #33
    Super Moderator RobDog888's Avatar
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    Re: Ouch

    ah yes it was trillion not billion. Things are getting out of hand now here in the US and its still not topped out yet. Stupid people driving mass hysteria and mass panic buying. When you run out of your usual stock of TP and need to get a simple pack of if what you gonna do as all the stores are sold out? Buy paper towels? lol
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  34. #34
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: Ouch

    Shower.

    I was thinking about it, and I think I probably already have a hoard of TP. When I go hiking, I want most of a roll, but not a whole roll, since those are too large to pack conveniently. Since I rarely go for less than a week, a small roll is usually too small. Therefore, I have lots of partial rolls lying around that are too little for a long trip, and I just forget to use them up.

    I think I'm pretty well set.
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  35. #35

    Thread Starter
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    Re: Ouch

    I hope the government will find a way to help all the people that are going to be out of work and the businesses affected by all the shut downs. You know most of them are not in a position to weather a 2-3 month lose of income. I'm lucky, I'm retired and I have plenty of TP so I'm good. But I know my grandkids are living paycheck to paycheck. My daughters a nurse and my son works in a grocery store so they shouldn't have any worries. But if your in the restaurant, hotel, airline, cruise line or any of the businesses that supply these businesses, I'd be worried (I know there's many other businesses but just trying to make a point). As a country we should be able to find a way to keep these people a float for 2-3 months.

  36. #36
    Super Moderator RobDog888's Avatar
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    Re: Ouch

    After this mornings announcements of school closures and trumps address, people are hitting the stores worse than black friday. Fighting and cussing over tp and water!! Coworker went to our local walmart and found out. This is getting nuts!
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  37. #37
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: Ouch

    Hurricanes approaching Florida have similar results, though only localized.
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  38. #38
    Software Carpenter dee-u's Avatar
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    Re: Ouch

    Over here, people are lining up for alcohol, groceries are already limiting them to 1 or 2 bottles per customer as some are hoarding and selling them at 2x, 3x or more compared to the original price. No one cares about TP here.
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