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Thread: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

  1. #281
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by wes4dbt View Post
    I'm old but I'm half German. I wonder if I could seek asylum???
    If things get crazy enough, perhaps you could apply for insane asylum?
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker View Post
    If things get crazy enough, perhaps you could apply for insane asylum?
    That ship sailed a long time ago.

    More good news. I use to feel bad, like nobody liked me, because no one came by to visit but now I realize that I've been ahead of the curved and just practicing social distancing. Yay me!!!!!!

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Some general advice for improving your odds:


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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker View Post
    If things get crazy enough, perhaps you could apply for insane asylum?
    You would have to be nuts to do that...
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    I guess they're finally getting serious about testing. New Cases, Mon @ 900, Tue @ 1800, Wed @ 2900. Not a very flat curve but I didn't expect one at first. I'm hoping for next week. Though considering what's going on in Florida, I'm not to sure what to expect. The governor of Florida is a ....... Better stop there.

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    I'm not sure why people want to politicize this or make wild unfounded guesses and claims about the "politics" of individuals
    Most of the political links you post, I disagree with. I feel like I ought to be forgiven for extrapolating that they represent your own politics. The medical vids you've been posting seem bang on the money to me, though. I just wasn't aware that his name was John Campbell.
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  9. #289
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    So China's reporting zero new cases in Wuhan. End in sight? Let's hope so.
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    Wall Poster TysonLPrice's Avatar
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    There have been a number of posts where it has been said that politics should not be brought up during discussions of the current crisis. I agree wholeheartedly that in times like these pointing political fingers doesn’t help anything. But to understand how we got here it is important, especially when the reasons are political, to understand that aspect of how we got here.

    Anyone that pays attention to current politics is aware that Trump and Fox news are tied at the hip. One of the Fox commentators, Sean Hannity, is sometimes called the “unofficial chief of staff”. From the onset of the epidemic Trump and Fox downplayed and attacked the “liberal” media as what they saw as an assault on Trump’s reelection. Any seriuos reporting of the virus spreading was minimized. It wasn’t until the crisis affected Trump’s calling card, the stock market, that he really started paying attention. States had to step up their efforts because because of the lack of federal action. Now that Trump decided to get involved Fox news is singing his praises as a decisive leader.

    Where this plays in is with Trump and Fox news downplaying the onset of crisis as a political attack it diminished the seriousness of the virus. Polls show a clear distinction between republicans, democrats, and moderates. Because Fox news is the main echo chamber for republicans polls show a majority of republicans doubt the seriousness of the outbreak.

    So between Trump only being able to see that world as only what affects him, his attacks on the legitimacy of the media (fake news), and Fox news constantly feeding his ego our governments approach to the crisis was purely political. That is, how does it affect Trump and his reelection.

    So I would agree going forward we are better off leaving out politics. But it should be kept in mind, in my opinion, that republican/Trumpian politics got us off to a bad start and we are playing catch up because of it.
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  11. #291
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    The virus response was highly politicized in this country, and still is. I live in a strongly Republican state. The governor has been out front on the virus, but he's been very careful in what he says about the president, and the same has been true of other governors (Ohio, for example). One characteristic of Trump is that if he feels he has been hit, he hits back. If you criticize him, he'll retaliate. It makes for a less effective response, since Republican leaders have to be careful not to say anything that could be seen as criticism of the president, including criticism of federal responses, lest he attacks them rather than fixing whatever the problem was.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    It is starting to crush small businesses around me and hurting many people I Know. I'm feeling so fortunate I can work from home and earn a check. Government relief isn't going to help the "pay check to pay check" folks by this Friday. It sucks and is getting worse. This is just getting started.. I feel bad for so many people around me. We are day to day experiencing a world history event BIG TIME!

    Edit:

    As I read what I posted I realized I left out all the thousands of people and events coming together to help everybody

    There are thousands of examples of people coming together. NBA stars paying the laid off arena workers, food banks and donations on overdrive, restaurants packing up food and delivering, hundreds of feel good stories.

    I guess you cannot have dark with out light..
    Last edited by TysonLPrice; Mar 19th, 2020 at 06:17 PM.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    When our school district shut down, they said that all staff would still continue to get paid as if they were working their full schedule - that includes teachers, custodial, drivers, cafeteria, etc.
    The drivers in turn are offering to drive the buses to various locations to help distribute food, learning packets, WIFI, and other school supplies as needed.

    One local cafe here is offering free lunches for school aged kids during their lunch hours... just come by and pick one up...

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    I'm just curious, how are people handling the various shut downs? Our company went on full-on mandatory WFH mode this past Monday. Our branch was open for Mon & Tues, just long enough for people to come in and get their stuff to take home. I have mixed feelings about it.
    Pro: No commute - I'm not having to deal with the stupid drivers out there.
    Con: No commute - I'm getting way behind my podcast listening - I can't listen to words when I'm working, so listening to podcasts while working doesn't work for me.
    Pro: I'm in charge of the temperature.
    Con: Big fat window behind me catches all the southern exposure sun says "Think again buddy" ...
    Pro: Every day is bring you dog to work day.
    Con: Cats seem to think this applies to them too. Unfortunately they are even less help than the dogs are, and seem to be active about trying to be in the way.
    Pro: I have a decent dedicated desk area that I can setup and work reasonably comfortably
    Con: Big fat window behind me catches all the southern exposure sun says "Think again buddy" ...
    Pro: I'm an introvert, I've been practicing this for my entire life...
    Con: Yeah, I love my family and all but I got to the office to get away from them, now where the heck do I go? Ever see the The Shinning?

    On a more serious note, I do have to be careful... I'm not in the younger bracket, but I'm not in the older susceptible category either, close... but I also have existing conditions which sound like makes me a candidate to take it serious (diabetes for starters)... so while I'm not panicking, I'm definitely being careful...

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    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Our company seems to have gone to mandatory *** mode, as well. We had a group of people that I work closely with who all went to a meeting...except me, I didn't go. It seemed like a bad idea at the time, and it has proven to be. Somebody was sick. The tests were done, but have yet to come back after four days, so nobody knows whether the person had COVID or something else, so everyone who went to the meeting is quarantined.

    Meanwhile, we aren't really working from home or not. We're in the middle, so I show up a few days a week, but might move to full time at home next week. It's just weird.

    EDIT: I was wondering whether or not that TLA would get past the censor. It wasn't WFH, but two of the letters were there.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Wow, poor Italy, 793 new deaths today. Hope we're not on that trajectory. It's just hard to tell how much it's spreading. Because of shortage of tests, LA County is telling doctors not to bother with testing. It's strange, you know it's real but it's not visible yet to most of us.

    EDIT: Just checked, today new cases in Italy 6,557, in US 6,728. More new cases than anywhere else in the world. And how is it possible that India has a TOTAL of 332 cases. There's a billion people there, maybe they just don't test.
    Last edited by wes4dbt; Mar 21st, 2020 at 08:08 PM.

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    Hyperactive Member Peter Porter's Avatar
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Just went to home mode. They say it's for two weeks paid, but it could get extended longer.

    What sucks, where my wife works, a patient tested positive for Corona, but no one knew this person was sick since arrival two weeks ago! We were on vacation during this time, but my wife returns to the hospital this coming Monday!

  18. #298
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    Flu Pandemic 1918 vs Corona today. Right way & wrong way to setup emergency wards.

    There'a a big difference between the Flu pandemic of 1918 vs Corona of 2020, specially in the photos below. Look at the difference in ward set-ups!

    Iowa State University, 1918:
    Name:  Iowa_State_University_1918.jpg
Views: 94
Size:  42.2 KB
    * Pillows on alternate sides of each cot
    * Sheet wall separating each cot
    * Same amount of space between cots
    * No tripping hazzards
    * No unnecessary stuff next to the cots

    Yale University, photo from a day ago:
    Name:  Yale_University_2020.jpg
Views: 94
Size:  84.4 KB
    * Pillows on same side between cots
    * No barrier separating the cots
    * Alot of wasted space that could've provided more space between cots
    * Tight squeeze between cots turns cable into tripping hazzard
    * Unnecessary folding chairs next to each cot
    It's another object in need of decontamination every day. There will be no family visits with so many infected people in a gym. Medical staff wont sit, bringing themselves within grab reach of a frantic patient, or their faces closer to coughing patients, even if they're wearing masks. Patients have their cots to sit on, so there is no need for folding chairs.
    Last edited by Peter Porter; Mar 22nd, 2020 at 02:52 PM.

  19. #299
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    Re: Flu Pandemic 1918 vs Corona today. Right way & wrong way to setup emergency wards

    I'd take today's conditions over 1918 anytime...they didn't even have penicillin back then.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Italy has experienced a downturn in new cases. With Wuhan reporting no new cases it is starting to sound like this virus burns itself out fairly quickly... as long as people actually take the right measures and stay as isolated as possible (completely isolated if you're showing symptoms).

    Stay home and stay safe. About the only thing you should be going out for, at this point, is to pick up groceries.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    I "broke home quarantine" this weekend... had to. For sanity. Me and the family had been in the house all week. They;re home from school, and I'm working form home. We did stay social distanced from everyone though. In the morning we went to the berry farm and picked some strawberries. We got there right when they opened, so it was good, only a few others there and were spread out pretty good. Then I spent the better part of the afternoon kayaking on the river here... man that felt good. Again, plenty of distance between me and the few people there were in river was observed.

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post
    Italy has experienced a downturn in new cases. With Wuhan reporting no new cases it is starting to sound like this virus burns itself out fairly quickly... as long as people actually take the right measures and stay as isolated as possible (completely isolated if you're showing symptoms).

    Stay home and stay safe. About the only thing you should be going out for, at this point, is to pick up groceries.
    That is also contingent on China accurately reporting what is going on. They didn't start out that way.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post
    Italy has experienced a downturn in new cases. With Wuhan reporting no new cases it is starting to sound like this virus burns itself out fairly quickly... as long as people actually take the right measures and stay as isolated as possible (completely isolated if you're showing symptoms)..
    Its more likely that they are faking the number of new cases as to try to bring the hysteria and blame down and away from them.
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    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    I think that boat has sailed, so I don't believe either country is falsifying much, at this point. They just don't have anything to gain. Italy has already tanked their economy, and have taken the gold for per capita death rate, so what do they have left to gain?

    China is a different matter, but I would expect their more afraid of an internal backlash than any external news. I'm just not sure whether falsifying or not would serve them better, at this point.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Trump already getting cold feet with the self-isolation recommendations nationwide.

    Simplifying this down quite a bit, I imagine this can be distilled down to 2 graphs. The first graph is days of "lockdown" as the x-axis and "Negative economic impact" on the y-axis. I would imagine this would look somewhat parabolic. If there was no lockdown, the massive spread, illness, death, etc. would cause a significant negative economic impact. If the "lockdown" lasts too long, the negative economic impact would be as bad as if there were no lockdown. Smack dab in the middle is the vertex, where the negative economic impact is minimized.

    The second graph is simply days of "lockdown" as the x-axis and "Number of total deaths" as the y-axis. This would likely look like a graph of y=1/x. At some point in this graph, as x increases, there is diminishing return in terms of the number of lives saved. And, overlayed with the first graph, we can see that there is a point after which the negative economic impact of each day of lockdown is increasing dramatically, while at the same time the number of lives saved by being locked down that additional day is essentially negligible.

    Hopefully Trump lets the 15 day period complete in full before thinking that things can start opening back up again. Anything before then is too soon I believe.
    Last edited by OptionBase1; Mar 23rd, 2020 at 01:32 PM.

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    Wall Poster TysonLPrice's Avatar
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    I hope China isn't lying...Trump says he was told by China's President Xi, "By April, during the month of April, the heat generally kills this kind of virus, so that would be a good thing." I'm counting on being back to "normal" by then.
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  28. #308
    Wall Poster TysonLPrice's Avatar
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Italy may have made a mistake in counting, making no difference between patients dead by cause of coronavirus and the ones dead with coronavirus.
    I'm missing the distinction?
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Keep in mind that without mass deployment of an effective vaccine we can probably expect as much as two years to pass before enough people have been exposed and recovered for "herd immunity" to be meaningful.

    Until then we could see this peak and recede in several waves separated by a few weeks to two months each time.

    Warm weather seems to make people less vulnerable but humidity might be an even more important factor.

    I just returned from an appointment with a local wound and hyperbaric clinic and the nurse said medical folks are a bit alarmed that people think this is going away soon.

  30. #310
    Wall Poster TysonLPrice's Avatar
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by dilettante View Post
    Keep in mind that without mass deployment of an effective vaccine we can probably expect as much as two years to pass before enough people have been exposed and recovered for "herd immunity" to be meaningful.

    Until then we could see this peak and recede in several waves separated by a few weeks to two months each time.

    Warm weather seems to make people less vulnerable but humidity might be an even more important factor.

    I just returned from an appointment with a local wound and hyperbaric clinic and the nurse said medical folks are a bit alarmed that people think this is going away soon.
    I agree and it makes me feel conflicted about the US\world lock down strategy if it is just going to resurface again. For now I believe and adhere to not inundating our medical system with the big curve we keep hearing about. But it makes me question how valuable that will have been if it just kicks back up again in different places and then circulates again. I'll stick with the experts but I feel personal reservations about our current strategy in that regard.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by TysonLPrice View Post
    I hope China isn't lying...Trump says he was told by China's President Xi, "By April, during the month of April, the heat generally kills this kind of virus, so that would be a good thing." I'm counting on being back to "normal" by then.
    What would make you think that China even said that???

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by OptionBase1 View Post
    Simplifying this down quite a bit, I imagine this can be distilled down to 2 graphs. The first graph is days of "lockdown" as the x-axis and "Negative economic impact" on the y-axis. I would imagine this would look somewhat parabolic.
    No. It'll be hyperbolic....cause everything about this is hyperbolic.


    I'm not sure that there are many people in the middle on this. I went shopping before dawn this morning in hopes that the shelves would be stocked. They were stocked enough, but still noticeably down from where they had been two weeks ago. I didn't see crazy buying going on, though there sure were a lot of people there for that time of the morning.

    I then went to pick up some irrigation supplies. That annoyed me, as I couldn't find everything I was looking for, which is kind of an absurd feeling, considering how many options I did have....so it was an irrational irrigation irritation sensation.

    Still, as I was checking out, I got distracted by a guy loudly complaining that people were overreacting. So, I was kind of checked out while checking out at the checkout, and almost missed something. Still, I was able to check myself and check my list to see that not everything checked out while checking out, so I checked with the checker and she said I could run back to check on something. Once I returned, the guy was still complaining that people were overreacting, so I chucked a check at the checkout stand and left. It was kind of a checkered experience.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by TysonLPrice View Post
    I'm missing the distinction?
    It's the difference between dying from the virus which causes respiratory distress, and dying from.... oh, lets say being hit by a beer truck... and yet still testing positive for COVID19... in the first case the virus caused the death, in the second, its a case of death with (but not by) the virus...

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by techgnome View Post
    It's the difference between dying from the virus which causes respiratory distress, and dying from.... oh, lets say being hit by a beer truck... and yet still testing positive for COVID19... in the first case the virus caused the death, in the second, its a case of death with (but not by) the virus...

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    If the beer truck was carrying Corona...that would be ironic.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    "Hey dija hear Bob died?"
    "What? No!"
    "Yeah, got hit by Corona-18"
    "You mean COVID-19?"
    "No, an 18-wheeler carrying Corona beer."

    -tg
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Deleted ......
    Last edited by dreammanor; Mar 23rd, 2020 at 08:43 PM.

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by wes4dbt View Post
    What would make you think that China even said that???
    What makes you think Trump was telling the truth when he said that? Or anything else for that matter...

    https://www.newsweek.com/trump-says-...-april-1486571
    Last edited by TysonLPrice; Mar 24th, 2020 at 05:11 AM.
    Please remember next time...elections matter!

  39. #319
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Well, if the heat of April kills the virus, then I needn't worry anymore. My body temperature is up around 98 degrees, and that's a whole lot warmer than April ever gets around here.
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  40. #320
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Lots of misinformation going around still and worryingly for you guys in the US, Trump is either listening to it or is a source or it.

    I personally believe that we in the UK have been pretty complacent about it, we can see what is happening in Italy and Spain but we still waited and waited to lockdown and as such have likely made the problem worse and a lockdown likely longer.

    Countries are still evolving there strategies for dealing with the Virus but what is clear is not locking down would be disastrous as would coming out to early from a lockdown.

    In the UK they think we are two weeks away from running out of critical care beds for new patients, and this is one of the major issues, when countries run out of care beds and the system becomes overloaded a lot more people die.

    You only have to look at Italy right now where there care system has been overwhelmed (and they have a pretty good health system) and they are getting some 600 deaths a day.

    Just going by official UK figures the number of deaths if you dont lock down versus if you do can be the difference between 20,000 and 500,000. and there are only around 60 million of us. Because we locked down late experts are already changing that low figure to a possible 70,000 deaths.

    If you were to extrapolate that to the US where you have almost 4 times the number of people, assuming that not everyone gets the virus that could be something like 1.5 million deaths.

    I cant imagine the public in any country are going to accept these kinds of numbers and as the daily death rate climes in the UK and the US as it undoubtedly will, people realise that there is no other option but for an extended lock down.
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