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Thread: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

  1. #1081
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by dilettante View Post
    The media seem to have been on a bit of a rampage raising the alarm. CNN is good about misleading graphics, as below.

    Not only do they use a compressed 5-color palette to exaggerate, they say misleading things like "Week vs. Previous Week" when their graphic is really comparing figures a full month apart.

    Attachment 177715
    Research was just announced that Fox news viewers aka republicans versus are more likely to dismiss the pandemic, not wear masks, etc then non-Fox viewers (like CNN viewers for example). There is no real way to determine how many people were sickened and/or died by Fox news down playing, and even calling it a Democratic hoax, in the early days of the pandemic. The moron in chief even agreed. He got his "cure worse than the disease" approach from Fox to downplay the need for a lock down in the early days. Now the US is one of the worst places in the world for the pandemic. Fox news also convinced the moron in chief to promote the hydroxychloroquine as a cure and it turns out it makes things worse.

    I guess the only good thing about Faux news viewer/republicans is maybe there won't be so many after the pandemic. Wait; I guess saying that is too mean. Maybe I can help...lets manufacture millions of masks with "Make America Great Again" on them. That might help get them to join in and save theirs and ours lives.

    One thing that graphic does point out...there is a a whole new meaning to "red" states
    Last edited by TysonLPrice; Jun 30th, 2020 at 04:34 AM.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    I'm not too worried. We've been out of lockdown for a month now and our new cases per day curve looks nothing like the mess when you look at the national aggregate:

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    Sure feels as if the "first wave" is still tailing off for us even with the small bump we've had in the last week.

    We've had no "stay at home order" in effect since May 31st. Of course there are various restrictions that gradually lifted by region and people are still encouraged to distance, wear masks, avoid crowds, etc.

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by dilettante View Post
    I'm not too worried. We've been out of lockdown for a month now and our new cases per day curve looks nothing like the mess when you look at the national aggregate:

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    Sure feels as if the "first wave" is still tailing off for us even with the small bump we've had in the last week.

    We've had no "stay at home order" in effect since May 31st. Of course there are various restrictions that gradually lifted by region and people are still encouraged to distance, wear masks, avoid crowds, etc.
    That would be fine if Michigan was a country...truth is it is part of the US and we share boarders. What really worries me is a month from now when all the contact in the demonstrations across the country start showing up.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    it is part of the US and we share boarders
    Boarders? Are we back on to planks again?

    I guess a lot of this is going to depend on whether you think stay at home orders/lockdowns etc can be applied at a local level. Our experience in the UK shows that these measures are not really enforceable but that the vast majority of people have complied anyway (with some notable exceptions).

    Do you guys feel that people would comply in the US? I sort of feel that a lot of the rhetoric has encouraged people to actively break the rules but it's hard to say from all the way over here in blighty.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Boarders? Are we back on to planks again?
    Renters then?

    Do you guys feel that people would comply in the US? I sort of feel that a lot of the rhetoric has encouraged people to actively break the rules but it's hard to say from all the way over here in blighty.
    Unfortunately a big part of the answer to that is what is your political party. Not completely but definitely true is many liberals/Democrats tend to favor social distancing and wearing masks and conservatives/republicans tend to want the country to open up fast and think masks a government imposition.
    Last edited by TysonLPrice; Jun 30th, 2020 at 08:03 AM.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    We have also the same red/not red map by department (our small kind of "states") with the same problem of population movement.

    here also the covid is re-spreading in some area, it is interesting that it spreads also in area almost no touched by the first wave. But it is not spoken as much as a few weeks ago in the news (paper or tv). I am pretty sure they will not confine us again at the national scale but maybe at small area scale.

    Just for you to know the kind of information we get in France about the covid in the USA...

    https://translate.google.fr/translat...2382390_24.php

    https://translate.google.fr/translate?hl=fr&eotf=0&sl=fr&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.huffingtonpost.fr%2Fentry%2Fen-caroline-du-nord-les-masques-bientot-illegaux-a-cause-dune-loi-contre-le-kkk_fr_5ef76fd2c5b612083c4e3bf5



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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by Delaney View Post
    We have also the same red/not red map by department (our small kind of "states") with the same problem of population movement.

    here also the covid is re-spreading in some area, it is interesting that it spreads also in area almost no touched by the first wave. But it is not spoken as much as a few weeks ago in the news (paper or tv). I am pretty sure they will not confine us again at the national scale but maybe at small area scale.

    Just for you to know the kind of information we get in France about the covid in the USA...

    https://translate.google.fr/translat...2382390_24.php

    https://translate.google.fr/translate?hl=fr&eotf=0&sl=fr&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.huffingtonpost.fr%2Fentry%2Fen-caroline-du-nord-les-masques-bientot-illegaux-a-cause-dune-loi-contre-le-kkk_fr_5ef76fd2c5b612083c4e3bf5



    That was an interesting read. I didn't realize the French media got that deep in the weeds concerning American politics. I guess because other than Great Britain I'm oblivious to EU politics and assumed visa versa. I should have know better. It seemed to lean towards the liberal side of our politics though. However, that may be because they recognize how much Trump and Republicans are a big part of the pandemic problem here as noted in the article.

    I liked the "the Covid burqa".
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    I think people outside the US get a picture of two monolithic political parties.

    We only have two parties that are viable any more for all practical purposes. Sure, we might see a Green or Libertarian party election win here and there but those are usually for lower level offices. Forced to make a binary decision, both major parties here draw a spectrum of people.

    The variations are along other lines. Rural vs. urban, business operator or manager vs. worker, union vs. non-union labor, education levels, income levels, region of the country, even religious and ethnic lines. Income itself only matters in part because above a income certain level both parties pander to your interests. Education level can be more a matter of indoctrination during your formative years than anything else.

    For example the TV character Archie Bunker was a parody New York City bigot - and a Democrat. But if the show were set in Texas he'd have been a Republican with no other changes.


    So the issue of masks and other precautions isn't as simple as political party leanings.


    If you believe those precautions help then we see this in the numbers. COVID-19 has hit the hardest here in Michigan Democratic Party strongholds. If you believed the anti-Trump propaganda the opposite should be true.

    Politicizing the pandemic gets us nowhere. I think the real factors lie elsewhere, with masks playing a rather small role. Distancing and isolation probably make a far bigger difference.

    Trump tends to leak a lot of things, lacking much of an internal censor. He might even know how ineffective masks are, making it hard for him to avoid saying things that break the placebo effect he actually intends to bobblehead along with. He just can't shut up, being lousy at keeping such secrets.

    The only alternative to masks being a placebo is that both Republicans and Democrats are doing the opposite of what their respective "leaders" are espousing.

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    I agree with most of what you said...but:

    Archie Bunker was a stone cold republican.



    So the issue of masks and other precautions isn't as simple as political party leanings.
    That is about as true as Archie Bunker was a democrat. From the beginning republicans from the top down minimized masks, distancing, lock downs, and they were the first governors to open up. Only recently are they getting on board and wearing masks. Except of course for the moron in chief.
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    Last edited by TysonLPrice; Jun 30th, 2020 at 12:46 PM.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    I stand corrected. I suppose the character's staunch support of labor unions does illustrate my point though (Dems being conventionally presumed to be a "labor" party here).

    But that aside... why are Republican areas largely uninfected while Democratic strongholds are rotting from the gills? I think it is largely population density alone. When the numbers are scaled per person this shows even more strongly.

    In my own experience the closer I get to Detroit the less mask wearing I see. Perhaps I haven't ventured deep enough yet?

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    He might even know how ineffective masks are, making it hard for him to avoid saying things that break the placebo effect he actually intends to bobblehead along with
    I don't know how you came up with that view point. One: everything I've heard and read recently has said that mask help prevent the spread. Two: if Trump had any proof that masks didn't help there is NO WAY he would keep it a secret. Ole Pumpkin Head would be yelling it from the mountain tops.

    Edit - Showing some off the wall character in a video saying masks aren't effective won't convince me, I wouldn't bother watching it. Show me some accepted main stream science.
    Last edited by wes4dbt; Jun 30th, 2020 at 01:44 PM.

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by TysonLPrice View Post
    That would be fine if Michigan was a country...truth is it is part of the US and we share boarders.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    What point are you trying to make? Ohio cases are going yup and Michigan cases are going down.

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    The point is that those States border each other.

    If they were sharing boarders of course then the curves would probably be more similar. But I was assuming that was a typo.
    Last edited by dilettante; Jun 30th, 2020 at 02:05 PM.

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by dilettante View Post
    I stand corrected. I suppose the character's staunch support of labor unions does illustrate my point though (Dems being conventionally presumed to be a "labor" party here).
    I'm not standing, corrected or otherwise. I can't say I ever watched that show. It wouldn't have surprised me if he was a Democrat, either. The parties have exchanged sides on several issues over the years. They may change sides again over trade.

    I agreed with what you were saying earlier about party politics, but would add one other point: One of the reasons that the US ends up with only two parties is that, if any third-party politician gains enough support, then one of the existing parties will take on the positions that were popular. Meanwhile, as a third-party politician is gaining strength, it is assumed that they are taking it from one party or the other, which creates some counter pressure. For example, consider Sanders in 2016 and Perot in 1992. They were both thought to lose the election for one side or the other, and in the NEXT election cycle, they had faded out, possibly by a horror at what division had wrought. That's just a theory, though. In a chaotic system, theories are all you get.
    But that aside... why are Republican areas largely uninfected while Democratic strongholds are rotting from the gills? I think it is largely population density alone. When the numbers are scaled per person this shows even more strongly.
    Yeah, totally, so look at areas that don't have quite the mix. In Idaho, which is a very red state, there is a divide between centrist and fringe. The governor has been responsible and prudent. His Lt. Governor (they don't run together, pick one another, or anything like that) has made it abundantly clear that when he goes left, she goes right. Also, when he goes right, she goes further right. The anit-mask group is the far right groups (there are several, and they all appear to hate each other, much like the Judean People's Front hates the People's Front of Judea), while the center right is the governor, trying to be responsible while being undermined by elements of his own party.

    Still, population seems to drive the cases. The two most populous counties (I'm not gonna look it up) are likely Ada (the city of Boise) and Canyon (the suburb of Boise, since the Boise suburbs do not extend north (mountain), south (desert), or east (desert and mountain)). Ada is one of the few Democratic bastions in the state. Canyon is about as red as it gets while still having a population that takes more than two hands to count. Both are seeing the same rise. It doesn't appear left/right, it appears to be purely population.

    In my own experience the closer I get to Detroit the less mask wearing I see. Perhaps I haven't ventured deep enough yet?
    I have no experience. I haven't been thirty miles from my house since February. I can talk about local stores and that's it. As I mentioned before, I'm seeing mask usage rise. That's understandable. I heard a report that the state had something like 400-500 new cases reported on Monday, which compares to 25/week just a couple weeks back. As a percentage of the population, it's still trivial. As a trend....well, it's alarming.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Ahh, "The Life of Brian" is a quotable classic.

    I think it may just be that "we" don't really understand SARS-2 yet and epidemiology is still less science than religion. The only strong correlation I see is that the denser the population the greater the rate of infection even looking at per-capita figures.

    The media bent over backwards trying to balloon some right-wing protests here out of proportion. "Here is the bad State" they crowed, "crawling with lunatic rednecks, see how awful they are?" And yet at least today it appears we are on the right track overall. Hmm.

    Maybe outcomes are completely random, or more likely the important factors aren't what we're told they are. Probably because "authoritative" sources don't really know or have agendas like Dr. Fauci telling people not to wears masks because they don't help - before he flipped.

    I choose to err on the side of caution, but being retired makes that more practical for me than many others.

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Somebody sent me this:

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    I agree with you analyses Dilettante (post 1088)

    I think the election time doesn't help the USA as it is a time where there is an inflation of announcements from both parties in order to get more voices.

    We used to have 2 major parties in France and they exploded in smaller one because of disappointment. One new was created to use maybe the best ideas of both sides (the party of the actual president) but for a lot of people the feeling is that this new party and government in fact took the worse ideas of both sides. They promised to stop to use old politic ways, but in fact nothing really changed in the way to do politics : a lot of lies and a low consideration and taking the people for idiots.


    Edit: there were a picture here, I removed it as I just remembered one of my colleague spent 3 weeks in coma because of the covid, the picture was not so funny after all...
    Last edited by Delaney; Jun 30th, 2020 at 05:29 PM.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by dilettante View Post
    I think it may just be that "we" don't really understand SARS-2 yet
    I'm not quite sure I agree with that. I was just reading the latest Scientific American, which has a pretty detailed explanation of how the virus works, what makes it different from SARS, and the various approaches that are being used to attack it. It sounds like we do know a fair amount about how it works, which has provided several avenues of attack. However, most of that doesn't get into the media, as it is too complicated to explain in a sound bite. Furthermore, to some extent it doesn't matter. For example, it appears to have certain means to suppress the signaling that starts the immune system response, which is what makes it particularly problematic. With SARS, you'd be showing symptoms well before you became contagious. With this one, contagion precedes symptoms by a few days. By the time you know, you've had a chance to share.

    However, if you know that there are several steps that can be used to attack the virus, that doesn't mean that any of them will work. Some will be disposed of by the immune system before they can do anything useful. Others will have side effects that kill the host (injecting bleach WILL kill the virus, if you inject enough, you just won't survive it, so it doesn't matter whether the virus does or not). So, knowing there are attack vectors is one step. Finding a strategy that works is a wholly different step. Scaling that up to work for several billion people is a whole other problem. If you don't have all three, you don't have a solution.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    This week I've heard a lot of squawk-b'gawks clucking that "Masks are stupid, surfaces are the danger." Where do they get this? Seems a poor fit with that the CDC says.

    CDC updates COVID-19 transmission webpage to clarify information about types of spread

    The primary and most important mode of transmission for COVID-19 is through close contact from person-to-person. Based on data from lab studies on COVID-19 and what we know about similar respiratory diseases, it may be possible that a person can get COVID-19 by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes, but this isnít thought to be the main way the virus spreads.

    No idea why the cluckers are telling other people not to wear masks. Anyone know where this idea comes from?

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    No idea why the cluckers are telling other people not to wear masks. Anyone know where this idea comes from?
    I can't believe you asked that

    TRUMP

    He just today, for the first time, people should wear them. Forget about Tulsa OK already?
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Oh. So Trump says "wear masks" and the cluckers tell people to do the opposite. Got it. In other words CNN and MSNBC are spreading this.

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    I don't hear that from ANY media (though you did pretty much just mention TV media, and I don't have a TV, so I don't know what they say). The place I hear from anti-mask folks is demonstrations by the lunatic fringe out here.

    As for Surfaces, I think they're great. I'm pretty sure mine doesn't have any viruses, but I'm mostly using it as a DB server, at the moment.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    I was seeing it in the chat on a livestream of a far left Russian-state-controlled radio show out of D.C. the past few mornings.

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Seems behind the times. My understanding is that "masks don't help" and "surfaces are of concern" are opinions from early March. All I hear currently is: Wear masks, if only to be kind to those around you, super spreaders are the biggest concern (though you don't know who they'll be until after the fact), and surfaces are of far less concern than the typical suspended aerosol.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by dilettante View Post
    Oh. So Trump says "wear masks" and the cluckers tell people to do the opposite. Got it. In other words CNN and MSNBC are spreading this.
    I slipped...you caught me again with your troll bait

    Anyone with any knowledge level of current politics knows Trump politicized not wearing masks. The republican toadies fall in line or stay silent. nuf said..
    Last edited by TysonLPrice; Yesterday at 03:52 AM.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    I dont get the complete fixation with Masks, yes its seems masks can help reduce transmission somewhat, and particularly if you have to go somewhere indoors where you cant socially distance then masks are probably a good idea and i can see a pretty good argument to mandate them on Public transport and maybe some other spaces, but they are like an add-on protection not the main thing that will help us keep the virus levels low

    I think it may just be that "we" don't really understand SARS-2 yet and epidemiology is still less science than religion. The only strong correlation I see is that the denser the population the greater the rate of infection even looking at per-capita figures.
    We know more now than we did and there are trends and data that do stand out in what is causing spreading. You right in that the denser the population in an area generally the more at risk it is, but its not the only factor and it doesn't tell us what activities are a greater risk of spreading.

    The reports i have read say that the virus spreads at a much greater rate indoors, particularly in spaces where people cant or are not socially distancing and where there are larger numbers of people.

    This seems to correlate with many the outbreaks found at Meat packing plants (where they generally also dont supply there staff with PPE), Bars and Nightclubs at various places around the world. I am sure there are other examples as well.

    Its notable that bars were pretty much the first thing states such as Arizona and Texas have closed again.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by NeedSomeAnswers View Post
    I dont get the complete fixation with Masks,
    Because we can do that. What other active measure can individuals take? Darn near nothing, as far as I can tell. The whole thing is social. The virus spreads because of our social nature. The greatest protection we can get comes from changing that social nature, often in unwelcome ways. So, wearing a mask is both an active measure, a visual measure, and a social signal. Why would we NOT focus on that?
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Because we can do that. What other active measure can individuals take? Darn near nothing, as far as I can tell. The whole thing is social. The virus spreads because of our social nature. The greatest protection we can get comes from changing that social nature, often in unwelcome ways. So, wearing a mask is both an active measure, a visual measure, and a social signal. Why would we NOT focus on that?
    Fair enough maybe your right its a measure we can choose to take that has some effect and the only others are to keep away from people and not go out or just ignore it and pretend it isn't happening.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by NeedSomeAnswers View Post
    Fair enough maybe your right its a measure we can choose to take that has some effect and the only others are to keep away from people and not go out or just ignore it and pretend it isn't happening.
    Yeah, you can't always stay home. It does seem to be the only tool we have and even if it's only 10-20% effective that is still a huge help. Though I think if you use a proper mask it could be even more effective that 20%.

    We can't rely on testing to curb the spread. My daughter is a critical care nurse, she's on vacation and just found out one of here heart surgery patients tested positive of COVID. The hospital didn't contact her she found out through a friend. She is now running a fever and feeling exhausted. The hospital where she works wont test her and the earliest appointment she can get is 8 days away and then 3 days to get the results. They whole system is crap.

    On top of that there are all kinds of people around here that don't think wearing a mask is necessary or just don't care about doing the right thing.

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    I haven't habituated the "elbow cough" yet. I had one doctor offer the "elbow bump" (instead of a handshake) when I was in the non-COVID part of the hospital back in April. Boy that seemed weird. And combining the two just seems wrong.

    There might be a number of social adaptations around the pandemic.

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Oxygen is still a good thing, even if the virus is not.

    I haven't gotten the elbow cough down yet, either, and I'm not sure about it. Doesn't seem all that great, really. Yeah, it keeps germs off your hands at that moment, but our hands are never all that sanitary, and an elbow just seems to spread out anything that hits it.
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  33. #1113
    Addicted Member Delaney's Avatar
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    One of the doctor in France said at the beginning of the pandemic : "Wear the mask, we don't know yet if it is very efficient but at least if you hands are contaminated, it will prevent you to touch you nose, your face and so reduce the risk of getting the Covid".

    By the way, we don't wear the mask just to protect our-self but also to protect others in case we are contaminated and don't know it. I think we have also that responsibility.
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  34. #1114
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Maybe knock boots instead of a handshake? Ok, that came out wrong.

  35. #1115
    Frenzied Member jdc2000's Avatar
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

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  36. #1116
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

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    Er, anyone remember the Wolfman on Star Trek?

  37. #1117
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    The hospital where she works wont test her and the earliest appointment she can get is 8 days away and then 3 days to get the results.
    That's appalling! Especially given that she's front line medical staff. I hope she turns out OK and my thoughts are with her.

    "Wear the mask, we don't know yet if it is very efficient but at least if you hands are contaminated, it will prevent you to touch you nose, your face and so reduce the risk of getting the Covid"
    Interesting. One of the main arguments given here for why they haven't made masks mandatory is that they make you touch your face more as you adjust it, fiddle with it etc.

    Because we can do that. What other active measure can individuals take?
    I think wearing a mask may be one of the very few measure that require us to do something but the more important measure are all about things we don't do. Standing too close, shaking hands, going out unnecessarily and missing with a wide social group etc. I think the active nature of wearing a mask does make it more glamorous (wrong word but I can't think of the right one) but I do think we should at least try to focus on the more passive measures. I'm a lot less bothered when I see people in the supermarket not wearing a mask than I am by the bloke who shoulders me aside to get to the onions in the veg aisle.
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  38. #1118
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    I'm pretty sure the "face touching" to be discouraged is the wet part of the mouth, nose, and the eyes. I doubt your chin or cheeks matters much more than your toes. The idea is to keep you from spreading the stuff into or out from your respiratory tract. Keep in mind that tears have a path into the nose and then the throat so that makes the eyes more important than might be obvious.

    So mask first, glasses a close second, then the jug over the head.

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