Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

[abhijit]

Here's an interesting map:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6

An ESRI GIS map of the number of outbreaks by area. The US has made it to third place, at this point, and could take the gold, in the end.

your crystal gazing appears to have come true.

[Shaggy Hiker]

That was an easy prediction. I'm more proud of the one I made back in post #80. Called that one early. Now, had I also predicted the stock market collapse, I'd be jumping back in now and expecting a very tidy profit.

[wes4dbt]

That was an easy prediction. I'm more proud of the one I made back in post #80. Called that one early. Now, had I also predicted the stock market collapse, I'd be jumping back in now and expecting a very tidy profit.

Hope your right but there is way to much uncertainty in the air for me to be investing. It wouldn't surprise me if there was another 15 to 20% drop when this virus starts peaking and it becomes clear that June or July is the target for restarting the work force. The funny thing is I'm going to be getting a good sized chunk of change in a few days and have no idea what to do with it. Probably just stick it in a money market for a few months. I have no confidence in the market right now.

[Shaggy Hiker]

Well, I'd say that sticking it in a money market or bond fund would be fine, for now. I don't know that the market is at the bottom, but I'd say it's close, so buying in wouldn't be bad. I also don't think it will be marching upwards at any significant rate, so there's certainly no rush to get back in. Waiting a few months to see what happens will cost you nothing, and possibly gain you something.

[wes4dbt]

I feel better now that the Carnac The Magnificent has spoken,



That's probably dating myself.

[TysonLPrice]

That's probably dating myself.

Is that anything like taking matters into your own hands

[FunkyDexter]

If you're single in total lockdown it's the only option available. I've set up a mirror on my dining table and every Wednesday evening I enjoy a candlelit dinner with myself. It's been going well and tonight I'm going to try and talk myself into staying over.

[NeedSomeAnswers]

If you're single in total lockdown it's the only option available. I've set up a mirror on my dining table and every Wednesday evening I enjoy a candlelit dinner with myself. It's been going well and tonight I'm going to try and talk myself into staying over.

Its not the only option - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gFgu8N5mWSE

[Shaggy Hiker]

Yeah, the earth moved for me last night....then I realized it was an earthquake. Idaho doesn't go for volume in that regard, but we do go for quality.

[TysonLPrice]

If you're single in total lockdown it's the only option available. I've set up a mirror on my dining table and every Wednesday evening I enjoy a candlelit dinner with myself. It's been going well and tonight I'm going to try and talk myself into staying over.

I believe it was Woody Allen that said "masturbation is having sex with someone you really love".

[Shaggy Hiker]

Well, the US has managed to more than double the number of cases that China reported, and we're still climbing like a rocket. Even Italy is leveling off, or at least trending in that direction. Not the US, though.

We really dropped the ball on this one. I wonder if anybody will ever be held accountable?

[TysonLPrice]

Well, the US has managed to more than double the number of cases that China reported, and we're still climbing like a rocket. Even Italy is leveling off, or at least trending in that direction. Not the US, though.

We really dropped the ball on this one. I wonder if anybody will ever be held accountable?

If anybody tried the republicans would acquit him again. Speaking of which, Mitch McConnell says the impeachment was a big part of the delay in our reaction. It slipped his mind Trump was out campaigning during the start of the outbreak downplaying it and most of the delay was after that sham of a trail.

[wes4dbt]

I'd say the federal government definitely dropped the ball and still is. On the state level, I think some have done their best to protect us, I'm satisfied with California's Governor's response. But then you have idiots like the Governor of Florida. The strange thing is we have successful models out there that can be used but for some reason they are being ignored. Maybe they wouldn't work because of our entrenched civil liberties beliefs. Look at the response when the president mentioned quarantining NY. Now I don't agree with China's way of government but in this one case their ability to control their people probably saved countless lives. One thing the US people wouldn't have any problem with is comprehensive testing. Let's hope this new 15 minute test is real and the 50,000 by the end of the week is true. We need a hell of a lot more than 50,00 but it's a start and could be a great tool for fighting the virus.

Edit: No way anyone will be held accountable. Just politicians pointing fingers at each other.

[FunkyDexter]

Maybe they wouldn't work because of our entrenched civil liberties beliefs.

I think there may be some exceptionalism at play here (not by you personally). All of Europe shares your values on civil liberties but were willing to set them aside readily in the face of a crisis.

I do feel like large parts of the US is still failing to take this seriously and I think you risk an unnecessarily high level of deaths as a result. But the problem is purely political. I think it was mostly political point scoring that has delayed your response and continues to do so. Civil liberties will be among the reason given to score points but it's really a smoke screen but you should see it for what it is, a chance by one party or the other to win the political debate.

Here's an example that, I hope, shows both sides in an equally unedifying light: "Quarantining" New York. New York had already locked down when Trump suggested quarantining it so why did he see a need to suggest it? And, given that Trump wasn't even specifying what that meant and Cuomo had already taken the step of locking down, why did Cuomo feel the need to express such fears over it? My feeling is that both simply saw it as an opportunity to invade the other's side of the pitch. It gave the right an opportunity to say "we care about your welfare, those lazy Dems aren't doing enough and risking your health as a result" and it gave the left a chance to say "we care about your civil liberties, those evil Republicans are trying to erode the deeply held values of the United States".

[TysonLPrice]

I think there may be some exceptionalism at play here (not by you personally). All of Europe shares your values on civil liberties but were willing to set them aside readily in the face of a crisis.

I do feel like large parts of the US is still failing to take this seriously and I think you risk an unnecessarily high level of deaths as a result. But the problem is purely political. I think it was mostly political point scoring that has delayed your response and continues to do so. Civil liberties will be among the reason given to score points but it's really a smoke screen but you should see it for what it is, a chance by one party or the other to win the political debate.

Here's an example that, I hope, shows both sides in an equally unedifying light: "Quarantining" New York. New York had already locked down when Trump suggested quarantining it so why did he see a need to suggest it? And, given that Trump wasn't even specifying what that meant and Cuomo had already taken the step of locking down, why did Cuomo feel the need to express such fears over it? My feeling is that both simply saw it as an opportunity to invade the other's side of the pitch. It gave the right an opportunity to say "we care about your welfare, those lazy Dems aren't doing enough and risking your health as a result" and it gave the left a chance to say "we care about your civil liberties, those evil Republicans are trying to erode the deeply held values of the United States".

I have to disagree a little with how you framed your example. You ask "so why did he see a need to suggest it". Because he just says things like that off the top of his head without any real knowledge of what he is talking about. It wasn't a political position so to speak. It was just the moron being the moron. Ascribing any real purpose to it gives Trump way too much credit. I think Cuomo was just reacting to another moronic thing Trump was saying. Just like Trump's administration is constantly cleaning up his lies and misstatements. Their classic "what he really meant was...".

[FunkyDexter]

...he just says things like that off the top of his head...

I wouldn't disagree with that but I don't feel it differs from what I was saying. Trump's always looking around for things to say that will make him look good, and if it's at the expense of opponents that's a bonus. Whether it was spontaneous or planned doesn't make a lot of difference IMO.

I feel, though, that Cuomo's response was thought through and deliberately designed to score political points. Calling it a "Federal declaration of war" is hyperbole. Especially given that, at that point, he didn't even know what Trump was actually suggesting.

[TysonLPrice]

I wouldn't disagree with that but I don't feel it differs from what I was saying. Trump's always looking around for things to say that will make him look good, and if it's at the expense of opponents that's a bonus. Whether it was spontaneous or planned doesn't make a lot of difference IMO.

I feel, though, that Cuomo's response was thought through and deliberately designed to score political points. Calling it a "Federal declaration of war" is hyperbole. Especially given that, at that point, he didn't even know what Trump was actually suggesting.

OK...I'll go with that.

[Shaggy Hiker]

There was an article I either read or heard that suggests that a countries response to the virus depends largely on whether they are optimistic about the future or optimistic about the past. Countries that feel that their best days are behind them, generally have been slow to respond and suffered worse (Italy and the US), while countries that feel their best days are ahead of them have taken more effective steps (South Korea, Taiwan).

Probably an oversimplification.

[techgnome]

I wouldn't disagree with that but I don't feel it differs from what I was saying. Trump's always looking around for things to say that will make him look good, and if it's at the expense of opponents that's a bonus. Whether it was spontaneous or planned doesn't make a lot of difference IMO.

I feel, though, that Cuomo's response was thought through and deliberately designed to score political points. Calling it a "Federal declaration of war" is hyperbole. Especially given that, at that point, he didn't even know what Trump was actually suggesting.

Except now, in Trump's head this is how it will come out: "So I told Cuomo that he needed to do a quarantine... And you know what? He did! " and then it'll be followed by some nonsense that somehow it was his idea.
The fact that that the quarantine was already in place won't matter.

-tg

[TysonLPrice]

I heard on TV, not reading it anywhere, the governor of Florida and a real Trump sycophant, is finally locking down the state. He said when he heard how serious Trump was now he acted. A couple of exceptions; gun stores and religious events. Now there is a Republican you can be proud of

[FunkyDexter]

in Trump's head

It was the best quarantine... the biggest... nobodies done a quarantine like this before... and the markets are saying I know everything about quarantines. The WHO are amazed I know so much about... folks... we've got a bigger quarantine than China or the EU... their quarantines aren't even real... fake news.

[Shaggy Hiker]

I heard on TV, not reading it anywhere, the governor of Florida and a real Trump sycophant, is finally locking down the state. He said when he heard how serious Trump was now he acted. A couple of exceptions; gun stores and religious events. Now there is a Republican you can be proud of

I've always found that kind of ironic. Considering that the average age of Florida is up near the average body temperature of the people there, you have a very populous state consisting primarily of at-risk demographics, yet they were really late to the game

On the other hand, having lived in Florida for several years, I can say that they pretty much live like there's no tomorrow in all areas.

[TysonLPrice]

Considering that the average age of Florida is up near the average body temperature of the people there

I've never heard that

I lived in the Tampa Bay area for about ten years. People have the usual mental pictures of Florida like Disney, beaches, big cities on the coast. But when you get into certain parts of central Florida it is more like south Georgia or Alabama. Lots of rednecks and country life. I'm not saying that should not have been "locked down" too because they do get out of the woods and swamps occasionally. But I think that might have been part of the Governor's reasoning.

[wes4dbt]

I think there may be some exceptionalism at play here (not by you personally). All of Europe shares your values on civil liberties but were willing to set them aside readily in the face of a crisis

You've read more into that statement than was there. But I will say that nowhere in the US or Europe have the government taken the kind of action that China did. Think there would have been riots if they tried, maybe now that people have seen the spread, it might be possible. New York still isn't under a true quarantine. They asked people to quarantine in place but there is plenty of people moving around and in/out of the city. Are we paying a price for our freedoms? Maybe.

[FunkyDexter]

You've read more into that statement than was there

Your statement, probably I did. Similar statements I've seen round the net, less so. That's why I put "Not by you personally". I hope that came across and my apologies if it didn't.

My point was, though, that it's not the fault of your civil liberties that you're facing a worse problem, its the fault of the politicians who are using the liberties as a point scoring opportunity at a time like this instead of actually trying to deal with the problem.

I should also add that, while I don't feel the Dems are without blame in this regard and wanted to highlight that, Trumps behaviour has been far, far worse.

Believe it or not, your population absolutely would accept a total lock down a la Wuhan if they hadn't been primed not to. We pretty much have in the UK. NOBODY goes out right now except for food or if they're a key worker. It's been mostly voluntary but the police have been given full emergency powers to arrest and/or fine those flouting the rules - that they haven't needed to actually use them speaks volumes about how seriously we're taking this.

But Trump has spent the last 3 years priming large parts of your population to distrust their leaders, the media, scientists... basically anyone that could actually send them the right message at a time like this. So you've got large parts of your population that still genuinely think this is all made up or "not that serious".

[TysonLPrice]

Your statement, probably I did. Similar statements I've seen round the net, less so. That's why I put "Not by you personally". I hope that came across and my apologies if it didn't.

My point was, though, that it's not the fault of your civil liberties that you're facing a worse problem, its the fault of the politicians who are using the liberties as a point scoring opportunity at a time like this instead of actually trying to deal with the problem.

I should also add that, while I don't feel the Dems are without blame in this regard and wanted to highlight that, Trumps behaviour has been far, far worse.

Believe it or not, your population absolutely would accept a total lock down a la Wuhan if they hadn't been primed not to. We pretty much have in the UK. NOBODY goes out right now except for food or if they're a key worker. It's been mostly voluntary but the police have been given full emergency powers to arrest and/or fine those flouting the rules - that they haven't needed to actually use them speaks volumes about how seriously we're taking this.

But Trump has spent the last 3 years priming large parts of your population to distrust their leaders, the media, scientists... basically anyone that could actually send them the right message at a time like this. So you've got large parts of your population that still genuinely think this is all made up or "not that serious".

To your point, I think...

Of the fives states with no stay at home rules at all they all have republican governors:

Iowa
North Dakota,
South Dakota,
Nebraska,
Arkansas

[wes4dbt]

FD,

Been noticing the last few days that the virus has really been spiking in the UK. Hope this is the top of the curve for you guys. Stay safe.

Where I live is strange, California has the largest population of any state, by far. But we're around 4th in confirmed cases and a very low death rate. NY has almost 10x the cases of any other state except their neighbor NJ. People are saying Ca. is doing so well because it acted early in introducing social distancing rules. Maybe, but I have a hunch a lot of the success is due to how sprawled out our cites are. So I'm not sure if we're going to have a lower rate of infections or maybe it will happen over a longer period of time. Either way would be helpful to the health care system. My daughter is a nurse and even with these low numbers the hospital administrators are wanting them to reuse the PPE.

I guess I'm like everyone else, I have no idea how this is going to play out.

[reexre]

yes I'm putting so many conspiracy theories ... :-)
Curious to know about 5G what do you think?
baseless theories?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8XbpqHsGaVw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EM3wKSS2zYY

[Shaggy Hiker]

Yes. Don't even need to see the conspiracy theory.

I believe the saying goes something along the lines of: Never ascribe a malign intent to something that can result from incompetence.

We basically aren't smart enough, nor well enough coordinated, to carry out much of a conspiracy theory.

[wes4dbt]

I believe the saying goes something along the lines of: Never ascribe a malign intent to something that can result from incompetence.

I like that and we have an abundance of incompetence running this country.

@ two weeks ago I asked if we really could get 10,000 new cases a day. Today 32,000+ and 1,300+ deaths. And all we got is a president that says "The government stockpile is for the government". thank goodness for our state leaders because Trump knows nothing about being a leader, just knows how to blame someone else. Anyway, enough politics. Stay safe.

[FunkyDexter]

Been noticing the last few days that the virus has really been spiking in the UK

I don't think we've been spiking any more than in the previous couple of weeks have we? I must admit, I've kinda stopped looking at the exact number 'cause there's nothing I can do about it anyway. I took a quick look here and new cases has actually flattened off (2 days is probably way too premature to get optimistic about though). The deaths rate does seem to have spiked yesterday. Anyway, fingers crossed for all of us.

I guess I'm like everyone else, I have no idea how this is going to play out

I don't think anyone does, it's a chaos system. Any state or country that declares it's low infection rates is due to it's excellent response or excellent heath facilities is engaging in hubris. Italy has one of the best health services in the world and did start acting early (though possibly not extreme enough measures) and got hit so hard simply because it was hit early. They weren't negligent, they were unlucky. Other countries are on the same curve, they're just further down it.

One good thing (though not if you're Italian I guess) is that Italy has been an object lesson the rest of us can learn from. We know that lockdown really needs to mean lockdown - no popping round your mate's house or having an open ait get together. We know that this isn't a 14 day lockdown, it needs months. We know now that fresh air and sunshine are no defence so hoping that Spring will kill this thing is a no-goer. We know these things because of what Italy has had to endure.

We could (and should) have learned the same lessons from China but China is too different from us. We can talk about China's health services being inadequate, or the extra powers of a totalitarian government has, or how they're all eating bats and pangolins over there. It was easy to dismiss China by focussing on how they're different (even though most of that stuff is total BS and actually China is almost exactly like us), but you can't ignore Italy.

Anyway, you wanna know how desperate things have gotten over here? I've got so bored that I've installed the Sims 4 just so I can pretend I have a normal life. I now have a level 4 skill in toilet flushing (though when the shower broke I wasn't able to find a handyman who'd come out because "Corona"). It's desperate times at Casa del Funky.

[NeedSomeAnswers]

I don't think we've been spiking any more than in the previous couple of weeks have we?

Probably not more we are just still on that upwards curve, we had more than 700 deaths recorded yesterday. Apart from testing where we seem all over the place we seem to be do a lot more thing right now at least, i do wish we had acted sooner and faster but we are were we are.

I worry for you guys over in the US you have gone from 1000 confirmed cases to over 250,000 in 3 weeks and you still not on country wide lockdown yet.

I feel fairly lucky in that i live with my Girlfriend and we have a good friend as a lodger so there are 3 of us here to share lockdown. I know a few people who live on there own and are going a bit stir crazy after 3 weeks alone !

I've got so bored that I've installed the Sims 4

Ha Ha yeah that kind of thing

[si_the_geek]

(though when the shower broke I wasn't able to find a handyman who'd come out because "Corona").

I suppose a broken shower is one way to encourage social distancing!

[dreammanor]

yes I'm putting so many conspiracy theories ... :-)
Curious to know about 5G what do you think?
baseless theories?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8XbpqHsGaVw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EM3wKSS2zYY

100 years ago, the Chinese in the Qing Dynasty said that railway would cut China's dragon veins and affect China's national-luck. They destroyed railways everywhere. Those railways were built by the Qing government with the help of Westerners.

100 years later(now), Westerners live in modern civilization said that 5G caused the COVID-19, and they started burning 5G base-stations and antennas. These devices were built by the Western government with the help of the Chinese.

[dreammanor]

We could (and should) have learned the same lessons from China but China is too different from us. We can talk about China's health services being inadequate, or the extra powers of a totalitarian government has, or how they're all eating bats and pangolins over there.

My wife's hometown is Hubei Province, and I have also lived in Hubei for many years. My wife and I have never heard that Chinese people like to eat bats, maybe we live in another China. In addition, Chinese people do not eat pangolins, but traditional Chinese medicine believes that pangolin scales are the raw material for making traditional Chinese medicine, so pangolins have been killed in large numbers and are now almost extinct.

IMO, the proportion of Chinese who have eaten bats is less than one in a million. Some people mistakenly believe that photos of eating bats in Southeast Asia and Pacific island countries took place in China.

[dreammanor]

Since the discovery of coronavirus in 1965, the coronavirus vaccine has never been successful. It seems that the COVID-19 epidemic can only be ended after the formation of "herd immunity".

In most cases, COVID-19 is similar to the flu, or it is a more serious flu.

[FunkyDexter]

@Dreamanor, Just to be clear, I was highlighting the way the Chines are portrayed, not the way you actually are. The way you actually are is: pretty much the same as us. Not sure if that will have been clear, given the language barrier.

[wes4dbt]

This is where I check what's going on around the world,
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

I posted that link once before but thought I would again because they have added two new columns to the grid. "Total Tests" and "Test / 1M pop". I think the numbers will mean different things depending where your country is in it's response. But I find the numbers interesting and it gives my brain something to play with for a while.

FD, I'm not near as optimistic that my government will make good use of the information from Italy and China. The CDC recommends wearing a face mask when your out in the community and our president say "I'm not going to do wear one", "It's optional, some people don't like wearing a mask". Hell no one likes wearing a mask.

[FunkyDexter]

That page is really depressing if you're from the UK. We're doing really badly on the testing

The CDC recommends wearing a face mask when your out in the community

The message seems to be a bit mixed on that over here. We've basically been told that anything short of a properly fitted medical face doesn't work and you've got snowballs chance of getting one of those. But, since this is carried by droplets, I'd have though that any sort of mask would help to some degree.

[wes4dbt]

The message seems to be a bit mixed on that. We've basically been told that anything short of a properly fitted medical face doesn't work and you've got snowballs chance of getting one of those. But, since this is carried by droplets, I'd have though that any sort of mask would help to some degree.

We were told that for a long time too. The reasoning now is, it's not to protect you from getting the virus, it to keep you from spreading the virus. They've found that the virus is being spread by people with no symptoms, so you need to threat everyone as if they have the virus. But I do think it would help some what from catching the virus and any way of improving the odd is a good thing. The problem is you can't buy any masks and I don't have scarfs. Though I do think I could ROCK that look!!!