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Thread: No Deal

  1. #681
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    I'm not sure it would be possible. The iron it hot, it's time to strike. The longer he delays, the more information will come out about the impacts of whatever deal he pushes through. Those impacts will all be negative (what other news ever comes out?), which will make the MPs increasingly timid over time. He has to get it done and get it done now, because everybody has seen how deadening stalemate is. Write the loss off the books and get on to the recovery.

    This is especially true with the global economy softening. If the results are more dire than predictions, but the rest of the EU goes into recession at the same time, Brexit could be lost in the noise.
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  2. #682
    Fanatic Member 2kaud's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    The Withdrawal Agreement will be done by Christmas/Early New year so that the UK leaves the EU 31 Jan 2020. In the scope of things, this is probably the easy bit. The hard bit will be getting the EU trade deal. This could be one of 2 ways. The EU are saying that if BJ wants a tariff and quota free trade agreement by the Dec 2020 deadline, then the UK will have to agree to abide by whole swathes of the EU's single market rules. ie the UK will have left in name only. This is not what leaving the EU was supposed to be about. Also, adhering very closely to the EU single market rules could well have a negative impact on the UK being able to strike trade deals around the world - a goal of leaving the EU.

    So either BJ agrees to this (and the Brexiteers are against) and the UK stays tied to the EU and we get an easy deal with very restricted freedoms - or BJ doesn't and we get difficult EU negotiations with much more freedom.

    With BJ's commanding majority in Parliament, he could choose either and probably get it passed. Any guesses as to which way he'll go? I'm leaning towards BJ saying no to EU single market rules and going for a US trade deal.
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  3. #683
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Frankly, I doubt he'd get much of a US trade deal.

    Trump thinks of himself as a great negotiator, but that's not really the case. He has only one strategy: If he finds a pair of balls in his hand, he squeezes. That's the extent of it. As long as he has a position of strength relative to his opponent, he'll exploit it to abuse them. If he doesn't have a position of strength, then he doesn't know what to do. For that reason, he always assumes he has a position of strength, regardless of whether or not he does. In this case, he'll certainly be right, to the misfortune of the UK.

    Keep in mind that he has said that if the other guy is happy with the deal, then you lost. That pretty much sums up his approach to all negotiations. He doesn't have friends and doesn't believe in them. That's what you'll be negotiating with.
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  4. #684
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    Re: No Deal

    I agree with both of you. I think Boris will go for a US deal and it will be a bad one.
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  5. #685
    Fanatic Member 2kaud's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    No Deal has now been postponed until December 31 2020. It will then morph into a No Trade Deal - as opposed to the previous No Exit Deal. We've still stuck in limbo for the next xxx months with business still not having the certainty and clarity they want and need. Expect lots of domestic announcements/debates etc to hide poor progress on the EU trade talks. I might even make a very small wager that the UK/US trade deal will have more prominence than the UK/EU one - as that would probably suit both parties. They might even be some sort of agreement between the US/UK by Oct 2020 in time for the Presidential election - with both sides spinning this to be the best for their own country.
    Last edited by 2kaud; Dec 22nd, 2019 at 07:02 AM.
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  6. #686
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    Re: No Deal

    No Deal has now been postponed until December 31 2020
    That was always the timetable. The Brexit deadline will formally happen at the end of January and there will then be a one year transition period. This is basically a grace period where the current arrangements continue to apply while everyone (both business and government) can implement new measures/processes etc. Any trade deals etc that can be struck in that time are a bonus but don't actually affect the timetable. I don't think any of that has changed, has it? Or have I missed some news?

    My prediction is that we'll still end up closer to Europe than to the States but the needle will have shifted somewhat toward the latter (and to the rest of the world).
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  7. #687
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    Re: No Deal

    I don't think any of that has changed, has it? Or have I missed some news?
    Not of which I am aware. The Brexit bill explicitly rules out an extension to the Dec 2020 deadline. So either we have a trade/other deal(s) with the EU by then or we leave on WTO terms. 1 Jan 2021 we will be completely out of the EU.
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  8. #688
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    Re: No Deal

    The Brexit bill explicitly rules out an extension to the Dec 2020 deadline
    Ah, got you. I get why Boris has done that but, of course, to overturn it would require exactly the same vote in parliament as was required to pass it. So it's kinda ruled out unless Boris decide to rule it back in again (he could rely on PLENTY of cross party support for that). It's a statement of intent rather than being truly binding. My hunch is that it won't get extended. Boris has hung his flag on it and I seriously doubt he'll back off it again.
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  9. #689
    Fanatic Member 2kaud's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    It would probably require an eruption of the Tambora/Pinatubo scale for BJ to backtrack on this deadline.He's placed all his credibility on it.
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  10. #690
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    Re: No Deal

    He has credibility?

    From everything I've read, he's right up there with Trump when it comes to respect for the truth.
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  11. #691
    Fanatic Member 2kaud's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Fake news, fake news.
    All advice is offered in good faith only. You are ultimately responsible for the effects of your programs and the integrity of the machines they run on. Anything I post, code snippets, advice, etc is licensed as Public Domain https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/

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  12. #692
    Fanatic Member 2kaud's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Will the EU now put a large spoke in the wheel and reject the deal?
    All advice is offered in good faith only. You are ultimately responsible for the effects of your programs and the integrity of the machines they run on. Anything I post, code snippets, advice, etc is licensed as Public Domain https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/

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  13. #693
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    Re: No Deal

    Will the EU now put a large spoke in the wheel and reject the deal?
    There is a deal to be had with the EU, but not on the terms Boris now seems to want. If the government wants complete divergence then it wont get access to EU markets and the likelihood of a trade deal is small.

    Currently i am expecting no deal.
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  14. #694
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    Re: No Deal

    The WDA has been signed so they can't put a spoke in the wheels in the immediate future. What they could do is resist any negotiations vindictively to leave us crashing out with no deal at the end of the transition period.

    Personally I think that's unlikely. They've got their red lines and they'll want to stand by them (quite rightly) but I don't see them being vindictive. Over the next year we'll agree terms on the things we're able to find common ground on and anything we can't we'll end up "temporarily" following EU rules on. Enough divergence will be agreed to allow both sides to save face but probably not much more. How long "temporary" is remains to be seen but neither side wants a crash out. Over time you'll see a slow divergence accompanied by slowly rising associated tariffs.
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  15. #695
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    Re: No Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by NeedSomeAnswers View Post
    There is a deal to be had with the EU, but not on the terms Boris now seems to want. If the government wants complete divergence then it wont get access to EU markets and the likelihood of a trade deal is small.

    Currently i am expecting no deal.
    I think the deal Boris is chasing (and promising) is unlikely as it is going against fundamental EU ideals and in many cases will fall foul of international rules and regulations on things like tariffs, trade, and taxes.

  16. #696
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Over the next year we'll agree terms on the things we're able to find common ground on and anything we can't we'll end up "temporarily" following EU rules on.
    I think your being very optimistic, i can see them agreeing some stuff on Aviation and easy thing like that, but on trade unless one side fundamentally changes there position i dont see where they meet. Both parties are coming from directly opposing positions, and the room for compromise in those positions is very small in that in many cases compromising mean giving up the position.

    Also i dont see what Boris has to gain in temporarily following EU rules on anything unless there is an agreed end point.
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  17. #697
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    Re: No Deal

    Could be. Personally I think you're underestimating just how much fudge the bureaucracies on both sides of the channel can deliver.

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  18. #698
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    Re: No Deal

    What's going on here, did I miss something. I've been quietly following this thread for months and now that it looks like Brexit is happening, no one has anything to say about it. Happy, sad or worried????

    I need closure!!!

  19. #699
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    Re: No Deal

    There isn't any closure. What happened is currently meaningless. A line was crossed, but it wasn't an important line. The key impact has to do with the trade deals that have yet to be negotiated, and have a deadline that is nearly a year out. Until those happen, the true impact will likely be very hard to assess.

    I expect that Trump is going to do something nasty to BJ, cause he always does in these situations, so it isn't much of a prediction. The real question is whether or not BJ can get a tolerable deal from the EU.

    Politically, the damage has been done. Labor has absolved Corbyn of responsibility for their historic drubbing, which is delusional. The Tories have a strong majority, Labor drove themselves squarely into the ditch and are trying to pretend they aren't there, and that's likely how it will stay.
    Last edited by Shaggy Hiker; Feb 4th, 2020 at 05:21 PM.
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  20. #700
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    I need closure
    There isn't any closure. What happened is currently meaningless. A line was crossed, but it wasn't an important line.
    It was important in that we have now officially left the EU, the Rubicon has been crossed.

    The key impact has to do with the trade deals that have yet to be negotiated, and have a deadline that is nearly a year out. Until those happen, the true impact will likely be very hard to assess.
    But yes your right we have one year now to do a trade deal so nothing really changes until the end of this year we still follow all the EU rules and agreements until then.

    What's clear is Boris's majority has given him the impression that he now holds all the advantage, and he has pivoted to a more hard line position saying that there will be no alignment what so ever with EU rules and that now we are aiming for a free trade deal including tariffs similar to Canada's or Australia's.

    What's interesting about that is Australia doesn't have a trade deal with EU so he is basically saying it is a deal like Canada's or none at all.

    The No Deal zealots look to be in charge, and they believe that the EU will back down and give them a special deal that has so far not been on the table or they will walk away with no deal at all and tariffs on 50% of our international trade

    I expect that Trump is going to do something nasty to BJ, cause he always does in these situations
    Probably but Boris seems to be relishing it.

    Politically, the damage has been done. Labor has absolved Corbyn of responsibility for their historic drubbing, which is delusional.
    Not all Labour has absolved him just his hardcore supporters and looking at the polling for the next leadership candidates plenty of them are looking for a break from Corbynism.

    Fortunately Corbyn will be gone by April and a new leader will be in place, hopefully they pick anyone but the Corbyn backed candidate Rebecca Long Bailey. The other 2 who are currently in the contest are both decent and will certainly do a better job, Keir Starmer is the current front runner.

    This does mean there is basically no opposition until April/May though
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  21. #701
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    Re: No Deal

    the Rubicon has been crossed
    That's a good way of putting it. We're fully committed now and preventing Brexit from actually happening is now close to impossible. But Caesar hasn't met Pompey in battle yet and nobody knows what the outcome will be. I don't mean to be Crass but we need an August politician to sort it all out. What ever happens we'll say we won because, to do otherwise, would be an aDomitian of failure.

    give them a special deal that has so far not been on the table
    I think that's slightly unfair. The Canada deal was on the table way back at the beginning of all this but now the EU seem to be saying, "sure, you can have a Canada style deal, as long as you follow all our rules, now and forever, including the ECJ"... which, of course, isn't a Canada style deal at all. Your definitely right about the general rhetoric coming from the leave hard liners though. 50ps, bongs and waving national flags on the EU floor in direct contravention of its rules is just childish. (And I really want to insert an expletive as the penultimate word in that last sentence.) Mostly, though, it's just both sides adopting the standard negotiation stance of "I want everything" so they can be seen to give some stuff up later in the process.


    On the next labour leader thing, my prediction is Long Bailey because, while the MPs will probably back Starmer, the membership still feels like it's in Momentum's pocket to me. They get the final say and I suspect they'll back Long Bailey all the way. Mind you, I'm in Bristol which is deep, dark Corbyn territory so my view may be somewhat skewed.

    I actually think Lisa Nandy's the best of the three though I think Starmer will probably be a better foil against Johnson. And I just can't wait for him to deliver the line "that's Sir Kier to you, Boris" at PMQs. Oooh that would be, wonderful.
    Last edited by FunkyDexter; Feb 5th, 2020 at 06:16 AM.
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  22. #702
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    On the next labour leader thing, my prediction is Long Bailey because, while the MPs will probably back Starmer, the membership still feels like it's in Momentum's pocket to me. They get the final say and I suspect they'll back Long Bailey all the way. Mind you, I'm in Bristol which is deep, dark Corbyn territory so my view may be somewhat skewed.

    I actually think Lisa Nandy's the best of the three though I think Starmer will probably be a better foil against Johnson. And I just can't wait for him to deliver the line "that's Sir Kier to you, Boris" at PMQs. Oooh that would be, wonderful.
    The polling of the labour membership is favouring Starmer by quite a way at the moment, the fact that he backed by two of the biggest Unions helps his cause too, and the fact polling says he will pick up a lot of second preference votes of Lisa Nandy's if she finished 3rd.

    Of course all this can change in a leadership contest but they are going to have to change the god awful hustings format if we are to see any of the candidates be able to actually debate against each other and do damage to the others campaign.
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  23. #703
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    Re: No Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post
    That's a good way of putting it. We're fully committed now and preventing Brexit from actually happening is now close to impossible. But Caesar hasn't met Pompey in battle yet and nobody knows what the outcome will be. I don't mean to be Crass but we need an August politician to sort it all out. What ever happens we'll say we won because, to do otherwise, would be an aDomitian of failure.
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  24. #704
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    Re: No Deal

    The polling of the labour membership is favouring Starmer
    Probably my perception is skewed then and I hope you're right. My preference would be Nandy, Starmer, Long Bailey but mostly it's just not Long Bailey. If she does get it Labour will be out of power for 2 decades minimum. As it is they're probably look at 1 decade regardless of who they pick.
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  25. #705
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    just not Long Bailey. If she does get it Labour will be out of power for 2 decades minimum. As it is they're probably look at 1 decade regardless of who they pick.
    Everything is in flux, its almost impossible to guess whether Labour will be out of power for an extended period or back in after the next election. There are two many things which are unknown or not resolved. Labour are certainly capable of digging themselves into an even deeper hole but i suppose we will have some idea in April if thats the case.

    Once we get towards the end of this year we should have a much better idea where we are at, Labour will have a new leader firmly in place and we will have seen already whether they can perform, and Boris will have concluded his negotiations with the EU one way or the other and we will have entered a new post brexit phase of British politics.
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