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Thread: No Deal

  1. #641
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    I suspect this is the last one we're getting.
    While it would be great if that were the case, and i know Macron is being awkward but they would give us another if it was required. The EU do not want to be responsible for No Deal, they dont want to keep extending also but they will if they have to.


    Anyway, we beat the All Blacks so who cares about Brexit.
    Amen to that FD, they should just send in Eddie Jones to sort it all out
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  2. #642
    Fanatic Member 2kaud's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Put them on The Apprentice so that Lord Sugar can tell them all that 'you're fired'!
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  3. #643
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    Re: No Deal

    Hibernation has come early this year - starts now and ends Friday 13 December.
    All advice is offered in good faith only. You are ultimately responsible for the effects of your programs and the integrity of the machines they run on. Anything I post, code snippets, advice, etc is licensed as Public Domain https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/

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  4. #644
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    Re: No Deal

    So, how are you folks handicapping the upcoming election? I'm not over there (thankfully, as we have enough problems of our own), but I was leaning towards the idea that the Tories would win a majority, if only a thin one. However, it sounds like Labour is running kind of hot, at the moment, and might have some momentum in places the Tories have to win.

    What's the worst possible outcome? A minority Tory victory, too impotent to do anything other than flounder? Corbyn as PM? I'm not counting unrealistic outcomes, such as Farage as PM.
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  5. #645
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    Re: No Deal

    how are you folks handicapping the upcoming election?
    We don't need to. They're making a decent shot at themselves. The Labour Deputy Leader has resigned. 2 former Labour ministers and the Jewish community are asking everyone to vote Tory. A prospective Tory MP has stood down after being criticised for a few years ago advising women to 'keep their knickers on'. The Tory Welsh minister has resigned but will still stand to become an MP. Farrage is showing signs of loosing the plot by fielding a Brexit candidate in practically every constituency as the EU agreement 'isn't really Brexit at all'....

    and August is supposed to be the 'stupid news' month. Ahhhhhh......
    Last edited by 2kaud; Nov 8th, 2019 at 11:50 AM.
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  6. #646
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    Re: No Deal

    advising women to 'keep their knickers on'
    He actually told rape victims to keep their knickers on. That's kinda an important nuance.

    You're right, though, both sides are just imploding.

    My personal prediction hasn't changed much: hung parliament but Tories holding a substantial lead over a second place Labour leading to a Tory/Brexit coalition. That said the remain side are doing a better job of building a pre-election alliance but Labour are refusing to join it or come out as a remain party. I think that continuing lack of clarity from Labour is what's going to sink the remain side's chances.

    I'm going to say something that's surprised me: I've stopped caring. I'm exhausted and I no longer have any faith in anyone on any side. I honestly don't have any idea which way I'm going to vote. I'm even considering voting Tory at the next election because I see that as the only way this is ever getting resolved. I don't see a pure remain side winning and I think another referendum is a bloody stupid idea. I wouldn't just be holding my nose when I did it, I'd have to take along a gas mask. I hate everything the Tories stand for and I've been a life long Liberal. So actually, I'll probably just vote Lib Dem in the end even though I think it'll just be vote for another 5 years of chaos.
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  7. #647
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    Re: No Deal

    IMO at this election there are 2 choices. If you want the UK to remain in the EU and ignore the referendum result, then you vote for whichever remain candidate is standing in your constituency. If you want to exit/fulfil the referendum result then you vote Tory. Simples.
    All advice is offered in good faith only. You are ultimately responsible for the effects of your programs and the integrity of the machines they run on. Anything I post, code snippets, advice, etc is licensed as Public Domain https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/

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  8. #648
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    Re: No Deal

    "you vote for whichever remain candidate is standing in your constituency"
    The question is, do you include Labour in that description. If you do you're not really voting for remain, you're voting for Labour to go back to Europe to negotiate another deal which they will then, presumably, campaign against in another referendum... I... just... . If you don't include Labour then your voting for SNP, Green, Plaid or Lib Dem and I just can't see any of them being front runners.
    You can depend upon the Americans to do the right thing. But only after they have exhausted every other possibility - Winston Churchill

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  9. #649
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    Re: No Deal

    do you include Labour in that description
    I exclude Labour under their current leadership. If BJ isn't going to be PM then I would rather have Jo Swinson than Jeremy Corbyn.
    All advice is offered in good faith only. You are ultimately responsible for the effects of your programs and the integrity of the machines they run on. Anything I post, code snippets, advice, etc is licensed as Public Domain https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/

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  10. #650
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    Re: No Deal

    I kind of feel like Corbyn is driving things, albeit not deliberately. All sides will have their core people, and those people will stick with them. For everyone else, they can look at the Tories, and if they don't like what they see...they look at Labor, see Corbyn, and realize that the Tories may not be so bad.

    What would the race look like if there wasn't such a dreadfully polarizing figure at the head of Labor? It seems to me that Labor could win outright, partly as a protest vote against BJ, except that people fear that Corbyn could be like taking poison to cure a cold.
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  11. #651
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    Re: No Deal

    they can look at the Tories, and if they don't like what they see...they look at Labor, see Corbyn, and realize that the Tories may not be so bad.
    Yeah that's pretty accurate. I actually voted Corbyn at the last election because I felt he was being treated badly by the press and his own party and wanted to see what he could do for the left if he was given some support but he's completely wasted it. Failing to take a position on Brexit, failing to engage with the accusations of anti-Semitism in the party, surrounding himself with a clique of socialist ideologues and driving anyone who dissents out of the party... I'm afraid his tenure looks disastrous for the party to me.
    You can depend upon the Americans to do the right thing. But only after they have exhausted every other possibility - Winston Churchill

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  12. #652
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    Re: No Deal

    My personal prediction hasn't changed much: hung parliament but Tories holding a substantial lead over a second place Labour leading to a Tory/Brexit coalition.
    I agree that the Tories are likely to be the largest party, but i am still not convinced that they will have a majority even with Brexit party seats. It will be almost certainly be a hung or split parliament though as to where the majority lies i think is up in the air. The Tories will almost certainly lose most of the Scottish seats and wont be able to rely on DUP seats this time to form a government, so they have to take seats off Labour and a significant amount of seats.

    I think we are still to early in the election cycle to confidently make any predictions and even when we get near the vote, predictions at the last few election have been way off so i am not sure they are worth anything.

    The question is, do you include Labour in that description. If you do you're not really voting for remain, you're voting for Labour to go back to Europe to negotiate
    When it comes down to it once the votes are counted if for example there was a majority between Labour, Lib dem & SNP votes, its quite possible that the Lib Dems & SNP demand the revoke of article 50 in order to support a Corbyn government, or maybe they find some other compromise but Labour wont just be able to to exactly what they want they will have to negotiate in some form.

    This is also what would make any Tory / Brexit government dangerous as if Farage was to get enough votes to prop up a Tory government then what could he demand? it would most certainly make a no deal brexit more likely.

    All parties have there red lines while they are campaigning but once the votes are in and they have the reality of the prize of government in front of them positions become more malleable.

    I actually voted Corbyn at the last election ... I'm afraid his tenure looks disastrous for the party to me.
    Me too and so i understand you pain, Corbyn is not a good leader but i would still take him over Boris or Farage at the drop of a hat.

    One thing to remember is the only route to power for Corbyn is being propped up by the Lib Dems & the SNP and both those parties would be able to make significant policy demands.

    So actually, I'll probably just vote Lib Dem in the end even though I think it'll just be vote for another 5 years of chaos.
    Whoever wins if they have a majority will be able to enact something, it may not be fully clear what that something is but it wont be another 5 years of messing about unless nobody has a majority.
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  13. #653
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    Re: No Deal

    as to where the majority lies i think is up in the air.
    Don't forget that you don't need a majority to form a government. Whichever individual party has the most seats gets the first crack at it and can form a minority government if they want. Of course, that would be the worst possible outcome but also probably the most likely IMO. If Boris ends up being a minority front runner I can't see him standing aside for a remain alliance and we'll be right back to where we are now with a neutered government and an opposition that doesn't want another election because they know they can't actually win it. God it's depressing.


    Corbyn is not a good leader but i would still take him over Boris or Farage at the drop of a hat.
    I'd take him over Farage, certainly. Corbyn v Boris is a no score draw for me.
    You can depend upon the Americans to do the right thing. But only after they have exhausted every other possibility - Winston Churchill

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  14. #654
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    Re: No Deal

    Don't forget that you don't need a majority to form a government. Whichever individual party has the most seats gets the first crack at it and can form a minority government if they want.
    It was my understanding that to form a minority Government, a Government must be able to command a majority in the House of Commons on votes of confidence and supply. If they cannot, the Prime Minister must ask the monarch to invite someone else to form a government.

    I'd take him over Farage, certainly. Corbyn v Boris is a no score draw for me.
    I think your being to kind to Boris there, i dont see as any different to Farage really he just has a thin veneer of bluster on top.
    Last edited by NeedSomeAnswers; Nov 13th, 2019 at 04:44 AM.
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  15. #655
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    Re: No Deal

    I assume the DUP will not join the Tories, this time around, since Boris stuck it to them in his negotiations with the EU, but I could be wrong about that. Going from an abused and mostly ignored fringe of the government to being a totally ignored minority party is still a step down. They might grumble and grouse and go along just to have SOME influence.
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  16. #656
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    Re: No Deal

    I assume the DUP will not join the Tories, this time around
    No they wont as things stand, the deal he negotiated is basically the opposite of what they want and unless he agreed to change the deal they wont back him. It is of course possible that Boris could change his deal again if he needed them.

    Also its possible that the DUP will lose some seats in this next election which will give them less bargaining power.
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  17. #657
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    Re: No Deal

    It was my understanding that to form a minority Government, a Government must be able to command a majority in the House of Commons on votes of confidence and supply. If they cannot, the Prime Minister must ask the monarch to invite someone else to form a government.
    It used to be. I think this has changed under the Fixed Term Act? Loosing a Queen's Speech or a Budget vote now doesn't automatically lead to a new Government. BJ is PM until he isn't. He has to advise the Queen as to whom should be the next PM. If the Tories are the largest party - even without a majority - he'll almost certainly say that he should continue with a minority government. IMO only if Labour become the largest party will BJ advise the Queen to make JC PM.
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  18. #658
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    Re: No Deal

    It used to be. I think this has changed under the Fixed Term Act? Loosing a Queen's Speech or a Budget vote now doesn't automatically lead to a new Government. BJ is PM until he isn't.
    Having looked this up it seems pretty clear that it is still the case - here are a couple of links but also here are the pertinent paragraphs

    https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/...ng-parliament/

    It is usual for the party with the most seats to be asked to form a Government because they are most likely to have a majority.

    A Government must be able to command a majority in the House of Commons on votes of confidence and supply. This majority can be all of one party, or include support from other political parties even if there is no formal coalition arrangement. If they cannot, the Prime Minister must ask the monarch to invite someone else to form a government.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...ent-explained/

    The Cabinet Manual also says that an incumbent government is expected to resign if it becomes clear that it is unlikely to be able to command that confidence and there is a clear alternative.
    So basically the Tories need to either have a majority or a majority on the basis of confidence and supply, if they cannot and it is clear that other parties can form a government either by majority coalition or by confidence and supply then Boris would be expected to resign and allow the opposition to from a new government.

    If Nobody can get a majority then Boris remains PM and can attempt to govern as a minority government.
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  19. #659
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    Re: No Deal

    No score draw.

    I actually think JC came off a little better than BJ. He was more measured and the way BJ brought everything back to Brexit started to make him look a bit ridiculous. I think BJ did better when Brexit was the issue under debate but let himself down when the discussion was supposed to have moved onto other things.
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  20. #660
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    Re: No Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post
    No score draw.

    I actually think JC came off a little better than BJ. He was more measured and the way BJ brought everything back to Brexit started to make him look a bit ridiculous. I think BJ did better when Brexit was the issue under debate but let himself down when the discussion was supposed to have moved onto other things.
    The problem BJ has is he has pinned his premiership on getting Brexit done, it is the only thing he has made any real claims about (not that he has stuck to his own deadlines or actually been honest in his claims) and everything else is framed in relationship to Brexit.

    Unfortunately BJ seems to either be unaware of the details to his own deal (quite possible) or he is wilfully lying about his deal (probably even more likely) so we really don't know exactly what we are going to get. HE has refused to do any economic impact assessments, refused to release reports on Russian interference, effectively stopped any scrutiny by proroguing parliament then by calling a general election. As a nation we really don't know what we are getting other than it appears to be worse than TM's deal which BJ wouldn't vote for because it was so bad for the country.

  21. #661
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    Re: No Deal

    or he is wilfully lying about his deal
    Yeah that, BJ has a long history of just making stuff up so much so that Peter Obourne a leading conservative journalist has even created a website about

    https://boris-johnson-lies.com/mission-statement
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  22. #662
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    Re: No Deal

    He learned from a master.
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