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Thread: No Deal

  1. #601
    Fanatic Member 2kaud's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    So we have a PM who is either lying to everyone in his interviews or he still has the expectation that he can somehow avoid doing what the law is telling him to do.
    Even in parliament yesterday/today, BJ and other Tories have stated that he will comply with the law and will not ask for an extension to the Oct 31 deadline. i thought I was fairly good with logic, but to me and to quote a phrase 'that does not compute'. What am I missing?
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  2. #602
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    Re: No Deal

    Couldn't he technically comply with both parts of that by resigning on or before Oct 30th? He wouldn't be PM, and it would be the PM that would be required to ask for an extension, so the law would be met and he wouldn't be the one asking for an extension.

    That seems implausible, but technically correct.
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  3. #603
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    Re: No Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker View Post
    Couldn't he technically comply with both parts of that by resigning on or before Oct 30th? He wouldn't be PM, and it would be the PM that would be required to ask for an extension, so the law would be met and he wouldn't be the one asking for an extension.

    That seems implausible, but technically correct.
    AFAIK, BJ has also said (or others have said on his behalf) - that he's not resigning???
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  4. #604
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    I wouldn't expect him to resign. He's not going to resign on principle, since he doesn't have any, and he's clearly not going to resign because of losing the majority, so why go at all?
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  5. #605
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    Re: No Deal

    At this point I wouldn't call a resignation implausible. A week ago I would have, but the ground's shifted. I might disagree with NSA on the "Done and One" bit (can you patent a phrase? Because I'm claiming that one) but I think the rest of his analysis is spot on. After the Benn act he's very unlikely to get anything that would improve on May's deal and, even if he did, there's no way he's getting it through the commons. So, assuming that's correct, his choices are:-

    1. Fail to ask for an extension. This is now an illegal act and potentially criminally punishable, though the Benn act didn't specify consequence for failure to comply.
    2. Ask for an extension. This would be political suicide and would guarantee a loss at the next election.
    3. Resign.

    Pick the least unpalatable out of those. My hunch is he'll end up at option 2 but I would no longer rule option 3 out.

    I guess he could potentially find some other political finesse that opens up an option 4 but I can't see it. I don't believe you can appeal a Supreme Court Ruling so there's no legal route for him. He could maybe bring new legislation that would somehow allow it but I can't see it getting through the commons. What else?
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  6. #606
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    AFAIK, BJ has also said (or others have said on his behalf) - that he's not resigning???
    Yeah at this point i am still convinced he is not planning on Resigning, maybe that changes if he is forced into a corner and its either ask for an extension or resign.

    I guess he could potentially find some other political finesse that opens up an option 4
    This is still my guess, Boris has an option 4 that he is looking at deploying at some point, probably at as close to the 19th October as he can (after which date Parliament will expect him to ask for an extension to comply with the Benn Act) so there is little time to stop it.

    Clearly opposition parties are suspicious too, and there has been some talk about forcing him to ask for an extension earlier, they dont seem to have the backing of the former conservatives MP's yet for this though.
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  7. #607
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    Re: No Deal

    There's now some rumour that a potential 4th option involves some Privy Council business?? Remainers are holding meetings to see what additional measures they have to take to plug any 'loopholes' in the Ben (Surrender) Act - which it seems there are as remain barristers are discussing this on their forums. This will happen early next week when the Tories are at their party conference as Parliament refused to agree to a 3 day suspension for it! Labour et al hope to ram through Parliament early next week more stuff to frustrate the Tories when they are in Manchester. Look out for severe depression and bad weather over Westminster!
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  8. #608
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    Re: No Deal

    I favor an extension. After all, this has been the best entertainment Britain has put out since Monty Python
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  9. #609
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    Re: No Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker View Post
    I favor an extension. After all, this has been the best entertainment Britain has put out since Monty Python
    I'll send round the collecting tin for the 1 billion it's costing us every month until we leave with/without a deal.
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  10. #610
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    Re: No Deal

    ^That
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  11. #611
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    That's just budget dust.

    The issue with the extension is that it is the easy way out for most sides. It doesn't resolve anything, but with no solution in sight, it allows things to sit. I would think that the EU should push for a very long extension, though it sounds like everybody is talking about the end of January. That seems too tight for what has to happen between now and then. It seems like you have to have an election, like it or not, because the current cast of characters is utterly incapable of reaching any kind of conclusion. An election may not move the needle, but I still think it has to happen, because the election will be on just one issue, since that's all that is happening. The result is likely to be messy, but the people will have spoken, even if incoherently. That should count for something in a democracy.
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  12. #612
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    Re: No Deal

    What makes you think that even if we get an extension until end of January, that Parliament will then vote for an election? At the end of January we will possibly be in the same position as we are now - without a deal or extension and we will 'crash out' on 31 January. If parliament won't allow a GE now until 'no deal is off the table', what makes people think they will vote for a GE until the possibility of a 'no deal is off the table' for 31 January and off the table for any future extension? Until there has to be a GE in 2022, I'm guessing that Parliament won't vote for a GE until we have a deal or a referendum.As has now been said by the UK negotiators, this position is drastically undermining out attempts to get a 'good' deal for the UK.
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  13. #613
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    What makes you think that even if we get an extension until end of January, that Parliament will then vote for an election?
    If parliament won't allow a GE now until 'no deal is off the table', what makes people think they will vote for a GE until the possibility of a 'no deal is off the table' for 31 January and off the table for any future extension?
    Of course they want an Election, the opposition parties want to eliminate the immediate threat of No Deal but all of them, every party in UK politics i would say want and Election as they all believe they can win and then when in power they will be in control of the Agenda.

    I know some feel that another election wont move the needle and we will remain deadlocked, but with such a single issue in play i think we will see one way or another an actual majority for one side of that issue in parliament.
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  14. #614

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    Re: No Deal

    So... what? Have you Brits done did this thing yet?

    From my (very limited) following on this, the whole thing is a disaster at this point.

  15. #615
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    Re: No Deal

    We've spent 3 years staring at this:-

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  16. #616
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    Re: No Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by dday9 View Post
    So... what? Have you Brits done did this thing yet?

    From my (very limited) following on this, the whole thing is a disaster at this point.
    It was always going to be a disaster, promising the impossible and then being expected to deliver the impossible is rarely going to be anything other than a disaster....

  17. #617
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    You clearly haven't worked in sales...
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  18. #618
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    Re: No Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post
    You clearly haven't worked in sales...
    Sales people are rarely the ones who experience the downsides of what they promise though....

  19. #619
    Fanatic Member 2kaud's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    So BJ has his no-deal. EU has accepted it but DUP says no. So the chances of it being agreed by Parliament are practically zero - as many of the 'hard' Tories are going to vote the same way as the DUP. Getting a deal that the EU, DUP, 'hard' Tories et al will all accept is looking like being an impossibility.
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  20. #620
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    So BJ has his no-deal
    I think referring to it as a no-deal is unfair. He's brought back a deal which is actually quite an achievement given where we were a week or so ago. Credit where credit is due, all the rhetoric was that he was just doing nothing and aiming for a no deal but he's clearly been working away in the background and has even managed to get the EU to drop the backstop.

    He has had to concede a lot around the sovereignty of Northern Ireland though but the NI assembly is going to have the controlling say going forward which is where I always felt that power should reside. I do think the Eire parliament should have an equal say though. Both Brussels and Westminster should be secondary in that debate.

    What I'm not clear on is what happens if the assembly say they no longer want the terms to apply. All the BBC says is that they will make recommendations on "necessary measures" to the UK and EU, but what happens if the UK or EU finds those recommendations unacceptable.

    And it's not that unlikely that he'll get it through parliament. He doesn't have enough of a majority in his own party to force it through but the indies who lost the whip will probably still vote for it. Labour, Lib, SNP etc. have all said they'll vote against it but several Labour MPs, in particular, are quietly saying they'll rebel. The analysis I'm seeing on the BBC this morning is predicting that it'll pass by a couple of votes.

    I think Boris has behaved pretty appallingly (but then I think that accusation can be levelled at all sides) and there's a part of me that wants this to fail just to spite him. His smugness will be truly unbearable if this gets through. But I actually do hope this goes through. It's got a few unanswered questions and it doesn't give anyone everything they want but it seems workable. The EU are happy with it, it puts the decision making over the Irish question in the hands of people who it actually affects and it means we can finally start to move on. I'll take that and call it a win for us all.
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  21. #621
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    I think referring to it as a no-deal is unfair. He's brought back a deal which is actually quite an achievement given where we were a week or so ago.
    The deal Boris has brought back is almost exactly the deal that he and in fact most Conservative MP's ruled out ever doing just 6 months ago, you can dress it how you like but this is not a better deal than Mays deal, and as it sets out the future arrangements to be a free trade agreement a much harder brexit deal.

    He has had to concede a lot around the sovereignty of Northern Ireland though but the NI assembly is going to have the controlling say going forward which is where I always felt that power should reside.
    Thats not exactly true FD, i have read the revised agreement document i.e. Boris's new deal and what it actually says is this (paraphrasing obviously) ,
    4 years after the transition period and subsequently 4 years after that The Northern Ireland Assembly will have a vote on whether to stay with the current arrangement, if there was a vote against staying as they are (which would require a 60% majority vote against) then the agreement doesn't just end but would be referred to a joint working group (of EU & UK) which would then look at alternate arrangements and pass on recommendations to the Special committee which is defined in the withdrawal agreement.

    (Also something to note if the Northern Ireland assembly was not sitting for any reason the arrangement would continue as they are.)

    The Special committee would then ultimately make a decision. If it is unable to for any reason then if the article is to do with EU law that the European Court would hear the issue, if not then a special arbitration group would be setup. Its was unclear from reading the document whether this would be considered to be to with EU law or not.

    So in layman's terms yes northern Ireland gets a vote but the vote is to setup a working group to look at alternative arrangements which are referred to a special committee. The actual decision is made be the special committee which gets to decided if there are any alternative arrangements that are acceptable to replace it. If it cant come to agreement than it either goes to the EU court or an arbitration group.

    So a lot of hurdles to pass in order for anything to change, and most commentators are saying due to the complicated nature and the 60% majority required (bear in mind the DUP dont have a majority in the northern Ireland parliament) it is a defacto a permanent Northern Ireland only backstop.

    And it's not that unlikely that he'll get it through parliament.
    I still think he is short of the numbers required but not by much, this will be a heck of a lot closer than any of May's votes. A lot depends on whether Boris can get all the ERG to vote with him and all the 20 ejected MP's, if not then it is unlikely he will get quite enough Labour votes with some sources are saying could be around 10 Labour MP's voting for it.

    If he loses any of the ERG or former Tories then its going to be difficult for him.
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  22. #622
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    Re: No Deal

    Stop the press!

    There's now a challenge in the Scottish courts to declare the EU agreement null and void as it contravenes legislation preventing Northern Ireland from forming part of a separate customs territory (Section 55 of the Taxation (Cross-border Trade) Act 2018 prevents Northern Ireland from having differenwnt customs rules than the rest of the UK). If that challenge succeeds, then there is no agreement for Parliament to vote upon and if the vote goes ahead before the outcome of the challenge and the challenge then succeeds, then the Parliament vote is nullified!
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  23. #623
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Oh good. It actually started to sound like progress. Couldn't have that, now, could we?
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  24. #624
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    Re: No Deal

    The deal Boris has brought back is almost exactly the deal that he and in fact most Conservative MP's ruled out ever doing just 6 months ago
    Agreed but the exception is the removal of the backstop. That was the major stumbling block last time and is a significant change. This also formally takes the UK (with the exception of Ireland) out of the customs union and the jurisdiction of the European court. With the backstop in place, Mays deal failed to do that.

    this is not a better deal than Mays deal, and as it sets out the future arrangements to be a free trade agreement a much harder brexit deal.
    I certainly agree it's a harder deal. Whether it's better or not depends entirely on your own bias.

    Personally, I agree with you that I would prefer a softer Brexit but, as I said right at the start of this thread, most people who voted for Brexit voted to leave the customs union, end free movement and leave the jurisdiction of the European Court. It has become increasingly obvious that those goals are incompatible with anything but the softest of Brexits. Given that, while you and I may not view this as a better deal, the people who voted for leave will disagree. As far as they are concerned harder = better.

    the agreement doesn't just end but would be referred to a joint working group (of EU & UK) which would then look at alternate arrangements and pass on recommendations to the Special committee which is defined in the withdrawal agreement.
    Are you sure about that? The BBC article I linked to in the last post says: 'If the Northern Irish Assembly votes against the provisions, they would lose force two years later during which time the "joint committee" would make recommendations to the UK and EU on "necessary measures". '

    The key bit of that quote is that the measure will cease to have an effect 2 years later which seems to contradict what you're saying. Do you have a link? I'm genuinely curious about this because I think whether the default position is for the provisions to continue or cease is going to be incredibly important in how this will play out over the coming decades.

    There's now a challenge in the Scottish courts...
    I haven't heard anything about that and can't see anything on the BBC. Do you have a link? My guess is that the response argument is that NI is actually leaving the customs union with the EU and can enter into any other customs unions the rest of the UK enters. What it's not leaving is the single market and is going to continue to conform to the EU's rules on that. It's also going to continue to conform to the EU's VAT regime. Whether that represents having different customs rules will, I guess, be up to the courts to decide.
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  25. #625
    Fanatic Member 2kaud's Avatar
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  26. #626
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    Re: No Deal

    ...but has now been thrown out of court. There's now the Letwin amendment. This seeks to withhold approval until the legislation to enact it has passed. Say what?? Passing legislation to enable a motion before the motion has been approved? Talk about Alice Through The Looking Glass...

    These MPs don't just want to block a no-deal exit, they want to block no exit whatever.
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  27. #627
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Are you sure about that? The BBC article I linked to in the last post says: 'If the Northern Irish Assembly votes against the provisions, they would lose force two years later during which time the "joint committee" would make recommendations to the UK and EU on "necessary measures". '

    The key bit of that quote is that the measure will cease to have an effect 2 years later which seems to contradict what you're saying. Do you have a link? I'm genuinely curious about this because I think whether the default position is for the provisions to continue or cease is going to be incredibly important in how this will play out over the coming decades.
    As is often the case with these type of documents they are written in legalese and so it can appear to say several things simultaneously which is nice for all sides trying to give there version of events.

    It does indeed say that
    If the Northern Irish Assembly votes against the provisions, they would lose force two years later during which time the "joint committee" would make recommendations to the UK and EU on "necessary measures"
    but it also says a bunch of other stuff which seem to put a legal onus on the joint committee finding a replacement agreement.

    In fact if you even skim read the withdrawal agreement the joint committee basically has a huge number of powers and responsibilities, and appears to be the mechanism to resolve any disputes. If the Joint committee cannot come to an agreement then there is an arbitration mechanism but this mechanism has been drawn up by the EU and uses EU & International law as its basis for decisions.

    Here is the deal document https://ec.europa.eu/commission/site...rn_ireland.pdf

    The interesting parts are these

    Any subsequent agreement between the Union and the United Kingdom shall indicate the
    parts of this Protocol which it supersedes. Once a subsequent agreement between the Union
    and the United Kingdom becomes applicable after the entry into force of the Withdrawal
    Agreement, this Protocol shall then, from the date of application of such subsequent
    agreement and in accordance with the provisions of that agreement setting out the effect of
    that agreement on this Protocol, not apply or shall cease to apply, as the case may be, in whole
    or in part.
    and this

    Article 18
    Democratic consent in Northern Ireland

    1. Within 2 months before the end of both the initial period and any subsequent period, the
    United Kingdom shall provide the opportunity for democratic consent in Northern Ireland to
    the continued application of Articles 5 to 10.

    2. For the purposes of paragraph 1, the United Kingdom shall seek democratic consent in
    Northern Ireland in a manner consistent with the 1998 Agreement. A decision expressing
    democratic consent shall be reached strictly in accordance with the unilateral declaration
    made by the United Kingdom on [DATE], including with respect to the roles of the Northern
    Ireland Executive and Assembly.

    3. The United Kingdom shall notify the Union before the end of the relevant period referred to
    in paragraph 5 of the outcome of the process referred to in paragraph 1.

    4. Where the process referred to in paragraph 1 has been undertaken and a decision has been
    reached in accordance with paragraph 2, and the United Kingdom notifies the Union that the
    outcome of the process referred to in paragraph 1 is not a decision that the Articles of this
    Protocol referred to in that paragraph should continue to apply in Northern Ireland, then
    those Articles and other provisions of this Protocol, to the extent that those provisions
    depend on those Articles for their application, shall cease to apply 2 years after the end of
    the relevant period referred to in paragraph 5. In such a case the Joint Committee shall
    address recommendations to the Union and to the United Kingdom on the necessary
    measures, taking into account the obligations of the parties to the 1998 Agreement. Before
    doing so, the Joint Committee may seek an opinion from institutions created by the 1998
    Agreement.

    5. For the purposes of this Article, the initial period is the period ending 4 years after the end of
    the transition period. Where the decision reached in a given period was on the basis of a
    majority of Members of the Northern Ireland Assembly, present and voting, the subsequent
    period is the 4 year period following that period, for as long as Articles 5 to 10 continue to
    apply. Where the decision reached in a given period had cross-community support, the
    subsequent period is the 8-year period following that period, for as long as Articles 5 to 10
    continue to apply.
    Its not the easiest thing to read but it appears to say the initial period will be for 4 years at this point the northern Ireland assembly get a vote if they vote to keep the arrangement in place then there will be a further 4 years, unless there is a majority vote in favour of staying in which case it become an 8 year period.

    If a majority votes against the deal after the initial 4 year period then there will be a 2 year period in which the joint working group will look at alternative arrangements, and pass them on to the joint committee which will choose replacement arrangement.

    There are a tons of other clauses in the withdrawal agreement that are referenced also but its over 500 pages and so i haven't read it properly, i did try but i gave up through sheer boredom !!!
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  28. #628
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    TLDR, I know what you mean. I do think you've picked out the relevant bit but you're reading is slightly different to mine.

    Highlights added for emphasis:-
    4. Where the process referred to in paragraph 1 has been undertaken and a decision has been
    reached in accordance with paragraph 2, and the United Kingdom notifies the Union that the
    outcome of the process referred to in paragraph 1 is not a decision that the Articles of this
    Protocol referred to in that paragraph should continue to apply in Northern Ireland, then
    those Articles and other provisions of this Protocol, to the extent that those provisions
    depend on those Articles for their application, shall cease to apply 2 years after the end of
    the relevant period
    referred to in paragraph 5. In such a case the Joint Committee shall
    address recommendations to the Union and to the United Kingdom on the necessary
    measures, taking into account the obligations of the parties to the 1998 Agreement. Before
    doing so, the Joint Committee may seek an opinion from institutions created by the 1998
    Agreement.
    To me that's quite clear. The provisions cease to apply two years after the vote regardless of what the UK and EU subsequently decide. The stuff about the Joint Committee making recommendations is kinda irrelevant because they're just recommendations and the UK and EU wouldn't be bound by them (though I imagine they'd have political weight).

    It doesn't actually say that the UK and EU have the power to impose alternative arrangements but I guess we're taking that as read as they the two sovereign bodies here. Which I guess creates the slightly weird situation that they can just decide on new arrangements which are the same as the old ones and around and around we go.

    What is interesting, though, is that two year clock would start ticking and I don't see anything in there to accommodate a delay if no alternative arrangements could be agreed on. If that happens I guess you can have a regulatory split between the north and south, which would presumably mean some kind of border. It would be up to the UK and EU as to what that border would look like. But what you couldn't get is the sort of constant limbo we're currently experiencing.

    Say what?? Passing legislation to enable a motion before the motion has been approved?
    Yeah, the Letwin amendment, to my eyes, is a pretty naked attempt to force yet another delay for political gain. It has precisely zero to do with democracy,
    Last edited by FunkyDexter; Oct 21st, 2019 at 07:12 AM.
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  29. #629
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    To me that's quite clear. The provisions cease to apply two years after the vote regardless of what the UK and EU subsequently decide. The stuff about the Joint Committee making recommendations is kinda irrelevant because they're just recommendations and the UK and EU wouldn't be bound by them (though I imagine they'd have political weight).

    It doesn't actually say that the UK and EU have the power to impose alternative arrangements but I guess we're taking that as read as they the two sovereign bodies here. Which I guess creates the slightly weird situation that they can just decide on new arrangements which are the same as the old ones and around and around we go.
    Having tried to read some of the full withdrawal agreement i would firmly disagree with that, the Joint Committee has teeth, its has a huge amount of power given to it legally via the withdrawal agreement.

    Also in legal speak i think that this passage is very relevant

    Once a subsequent agreement between the Union
    and the United Kingdom becomes applicable after the entry into force of the Withdrawal
    Agreement, this Protocol shall then, from the date of application of such subsequent
    agreement and in accordance with the provisions of that agreement setting out the effect of
    that agreement on this Protocol, not apply or shall cease to apply
    Normally a passage like this in a legal document carries legal force and means what it says in that, once there is a new agreement then the old agreement ceases to apply.

    The language used here is very relevant i would say, as it does not say the agreement ceases if there is no new agreement and you would expect it to if that were the case.

    What is interesting, though, is that two year clock would start ticking and I don't see anything in there to accommodate a delay if no alternative arrangements could be agreed on. If that happens I guess you can have a regulatory split between the north and south, which would presumably mean some kind of border. It would be up to the UK and EU as to what that border would look like. But what you couldn't get is the sort of constant limbo we're currently experiencing.
    The power to decided what happens next does not just revert to a negotiation between the EU & UK it is very clearly defined that the Joint Committee has the power to decide what happens next it is very clear in the withdrawal agreement that that is where the power lies.

    You only have to read a few pages of it to see how many things are refereed to the Joint committee to make a decision, and how clear it is in each occasion that it is the Joint Committee that has the legal power to decided outcomes once this document is in force.
    Last edited by NeedSomeAnswers; Oct 21st, 2019 at 10:03 AM.
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  30. #630
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    Re: No Deal

    Yeah, the Letwin amendment, to my eyes, is a pretty naked attempt to force yet another delay for political gain. It has precisely zero to do with democracy
    I dont see how you can say its not democracy, as parliament holding Government to account i would argue is a key part of democracy. It might not sit well with people but we have a government without a majority trying to act as though it does have a majority and this is the result.
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  31. #631
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    Re: No Deal

    we have a government without a majority
    That, of course, is the issue here. IMO the issue is not so much with Bercow's choice of amendments or rulings but an anti-Brexit Parliament flexing its self over a Brexit Goverment. Much of the existing proceedings, precedents etc are based around the fact that the Government has a working majority. I don't know of any precedent previously whereby a minority government has attempted to pass major contentious legislation. If a Government had a working majority then 'wrecking' amendments - even if allowed by the Speaker - would just be voted down. Other countries that almost never have a single party with a working majority have developed ways of dealing with it - for good or bad. But as in the UK this has been extremely unlikely, we haven't and has been re-affirmed by the courts, Parliament is supreme over the Government. No minority Government can hope to pass any contentious legislation in such a situation.

    Usually, of course, there would be a GE. But with the Fixed Term parliament this can't happen without the will of Parliament. This, of course, suits the current anti-Brexit Parliament as they can delay and delay and delay as long as they want, and smile at the discomfort of BJ and the Tories. They'll now try to get passed 'wrecking' amendments to the forthcoming Bexit legislation to delay everything yet again.

    Although I'm pro Brexit and not really sure about a no-deal Brexit, IMO it would now serve Parliament right if the EU said no to any extension - thus far and no further. That would force them to come to a decision - as the EU have now said either this deal or no-deal.
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  32. #632
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    Re: No Deal

    This is the perfect situation for a minority government to pass contentious legislation. After all, Brexit isn't a left/right split kind of thing. Both sides are fractured in many different ways to the point that no party can count on its members to toe the line. On this particular issue, the government doesn't fully know whether it is a minority until it has seen a vote, because neither party will necessarily vote as a bloc.

    Of course, one result of that is that nothing has a clean majority behind it, nor is it clear whether the various pieces can be put together in such a fashion that a majority emerges. The current deal seems like the best route out of this mess. I'm pretty impressed that BJ could do hard work when required.
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  33. #633
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    Re: No Deal

    IMO it would now serve Parliament right if the EU said no to any extension
    The EU will allow an extension if it comes to that, they wont be responsible for No Deal they have said that time and time again and they have repeated it just yesterday.

    Usually, of course, there would be a GE. But with the Fixed Term parliament this can't happen without the will of Parliament. This, of course, suits the current anti-Brexit Parliament as they can delay and delay and delay as long as they want, and smile at the discomfort of BJ and the Tories.
    Well lets be honest here either side could still call a General Election the fixed term Parliament act doesn't stop that, Neither wants to do it for political reasons.

    This is the perfect situation for a minority government to pass contentious legislation. After all, Brexit isn't a left/right split kind of thing. Both sides are fractured in many different ways to the point that no party can count on its members to toe the line. On this particular issue, the government doesn't fully know whether it is a minority until it has seen a vote, because neither party will necessarily vote as a bloc.
    I get what your saying but what we actually have is this in very rough terms about 90-95% of each party toes the party line, and if the Conservative Government had a majority that would probably be enough to pass legislation.

    The only reason that May's government has lost votes by so big a margin is people knew she had no majority, if she could have got her deal through with conservative votes alone i would put money on it being voted through even if it took 3 attempts.

    Also if the vote is close and you have a majority, Government Whips who are kind of paid government bully's go around and intimidate, threaten or bribe MP's to voting the party line and have a much easier time of get the vote required to push legislation through, but you cant whip opposition MP's.
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  34. #634
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    Re: No Deal

    Well lets be honest here either side could still call a General Election the fixed term Parliament act doesn't stop that
    Doesn't it? Outside of the 5-year cycle, two-thirds of the MPs have to vote for it or a motion of no-confidence is passed and no new government is formed after 14 days.
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  35. #635
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    Re: No Deal

    Doesn't it? Outside of the 5-year cycle, two-thirds of the MPs have to vote for it or a motion of no-confidence is passed and no new government is formed after 14 days.
    When i said Call a General Election that was the wrong wording really, i should have said either side could cause a GE as the both could take action that would lead to one.

    On the Government side the PM could just resign which would lead to a GE, on the oppositions side they need a no confidence motion to pass, which at certain points they had the numbers for, although probably not right at this moment.

    We will have to see if Boris has the numbers to pass his program motion though later today, if the answer is yes then in all likelihood he will get his deal through if not then Brexit will be extended again probably for another 3 months and who knows what happens next quite possibly a GE !
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  36. #636
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    Re: No Deal

    the PM could just resign which would lead to a GE
    That would directly lead to the Queen asking whomever BJ nominated to be the next PM - almost always the opposition leader. Only if they the can't form a government would there then be a GE.
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  37. #637
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    Re: No Deal

    The PM could call a vote of no confidence in the Government himself and instruct the Tory MPs to vote for it - which would probably mean the vote won (depending if Labour et al voted against). From the Tory perspective, however, this could lead to a coalition government (as losing a vote of no confidence only leads to a GE if no alternative Government can be formed in 14 days) of Labour, SNP, Lib-Dems, Change, Green et al under Jeremy Corbyn which is the absolute one thing every Tory is united against. With the position of Labour in the polls, they don't really want a GE now either - no matter what they say in public. The PM would have a GE if Parliament voted for it - but doesn't want a vote of no confidence. So neither side will put forward the no-confidence motion and they won't let the PM have his election..... All they want is delay and dither
    All advice is offered in good faith only. You are ultimately responsible for the effects of your programs and the integrity of the machines they run on. Anything I post, code snippets, advice, etc is licensed as Public Domain https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/

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  38. #638
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    Re: No Deal

    and the whole of the UK waits anxiously and with bated breath to see what happens in Parliament on Monday. Will the PM get his December GE, what will be the EU response be - what will be the length of the extension..... Will the UK actually leave the EU in November with a deal. The sense of anticipation mounts.
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  39. #639
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    Re: No Deal

    Pretty sure the EU will extend for 3 months. The only significant anti/short extension voice is Macron. That said, I'm hearing more rumblings than ever before about not extending with increasing numbers of EU officials saying that perpetual extension is worse than no deal. I suspect this is the last one we're getting.


    Anyway, we beat the All Blacks so who cares about Brexit.
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  40. #640
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    Re: No Deal

    perpetual extension is worse than no deal.
    This uncertainty is certainly hurting business. Whether they favour remain or exit all they really want is certainty - so that they can plan for the future.
    All advice is offered in good faith only. You are ultimately responsible for the effects of your programs and the integrity of the machines they run on. Anything I post, code snippets, advice, etc is licensed as Public Domain https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/

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