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Thread: No Deal

  1. #401
    Fanatic Member 2kaud's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    I think you have your numbers wrong there 2kaud at the EU election just gone the numbers where
    The numbers I gave were from the Peterborough by-election from the BBC web site https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48532869
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  2. #402
    Fanatic Member 2kaud's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Well, we all now know why Brexit failed under PM May - she was a fifth columnist as per my post #218! It's now emerged that May voted for the softest brexit candidate Rory Stewart and apparently has pledged to help him prevent 'at all costs' a no-deal Brexit. No wonder we didn't get a good Brexit deal with the EU under her premiership. It's also being said that she's committing billions of pounds extra to public services to 'derail' her successor as PM who'll have to find the money for her promises - and so won't be able to provide money for tax cuts as some candidates are promising. She's trying to bind the hands of her successor - IMO it shouldn't be allowed!
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  3. #403
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    IMO business as usual.
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  4. #404
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    No wonder we didn't get a good Brexit deal with the EU under her premiership.
    We didn't get a good brexit deal because there isn't one to be had. There is nothing more the EU can offer us that is not a customs union that would be beneficial to them. The idea that there was a better deal to be had is a fallacy and ignores all the evidence.

    It amazes me how many people seem to think that the main reason we did not get a good deal is we didn't threaten our negotiating partner enough.


    It's also being said that she's committing billions of pounds extra to public services to 'derail' her successor as PM who'll have to find the money for her promises - and so won't be able to provide money for tax cuts as some candidates are promising. She's trying to bind the hands of her successor - IMO it shouldn't be allowed
    They wont be bound by it, Those promises she is trying to commit the party are not new they are just an escalation of previous ones which were not met. When they were not met nothing happened !!
    Last edited by NeedSomeAnswers; Jun 17th, 2019 at 03:32 AM.
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  5. #405
    Frenzied Member PlausiblyDamp's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by 2kaud View Post
    She's trying to bind the hands of her successor - IMO it shouldn't be allowed!
    Wasn't that pretty much what Cameron did though - held a referendum and bogged off after the result leaving his replacement pretty much stuck with implementing the result.

  6. #406
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Called it back in post 249

    I know I'm being a bit smug there but I do think this sort of thinking can resolve so many of the issues we've got with Irish borders. But it does require both sides to start negotiating in good faith instead of using Ireland as a bargaining chip.
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  7. #407
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    I know I'm being a bit smug there but I do think this sort of thinking can resolve so many of the issues we've got with Irish borders.
    I am not sure why your being smug, this report is just rehashing ideas which have already been presented its says;

    The rules in the zone would remain closely aligned with the EU to minimise the prospect that goods would have to be checked when entering the continental EU.
    so close regulatory alignment which is something we have heard about many times, it also says;

    if the UK sought to diverge from EU rules then Ireland could revert to the EU regulatory area.
    So it spells out the first of the EU's objection to close regulatory alignment, that fact that the UK could at any point just choose to diverge

    The 2nd thing that sentence says is something that the UK & Northern Ireland would never accept in any agreement and that it that Northern Ireland could in effect remain part of a European customs union while the rest of the UK diverged. (and if you didn't think it said that i suggest you read it again )

    also further to that it says;

    The proposal is likely to face some major hurdles and the commission acknowledges it would be difficult to negotiate.

    It would require the EU to accept UK standards as equivalent to EU standards.
    This is another major issue, the UK wants to be able to negotiate its own trade deals with the likes of the US post-brexit, and the US for example has stated that it wants the UK to open up its agriculture market by lowering food standard for US imports.

    If the UK were to accept even one lowering of food standards during a trade deal then they would no longer be closely aligned they would be diverging and then your close alignment agreement is not worth the paper it is written on.
    Last edited by NeedSomeAnswers; Jun 24th, 2019 at 08:17 AM.
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  8. #408
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    It also says "In that scenario, Stormont would then have a vote on whether it wanted to remain aligned with Ireland - which would mean new checks on goods coming into NI from the rest of the UK." In other words, Stormont could decide not to remain aligned to the EU and the decision would be up to Stormont, not Westminster or the EU. To me that seems the right place for the decision to reside.

    And "Northern Ireland could in effect remain part of a European customs union while the rest of the UK diverged" only applies to food. Given that this situation already exists for livestock, extending it to food may not be as long an ask as you imply. It would not prevent the UK (and NI) diverging on any other goods or services.
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  9. #409
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    It also says "In that scenario, Stormont would then have a vote on whether it wanted to remain aligned with Ireland - which would mean new checks on goods coming into NI from the rest of the UK." In other words, Stormont could decide not to remain aligned to the EU and the decision would be up to Stormont, not Westminster or the EU. To me that seems the right place for the decision to reside.
    Yeah i read that bit but it would never work because what your asking Northern Ireland to sign up for is an agreement which as soon as the UK decides to diverge on food standards Northern Ireland has to decided whether its wants to be part of the EU (and we already no it doesn't want to remain if the UK leaves) or not, which is no decision at all.

    Your just trying to defer the problem to a later date not fix it

    And "Northern Ireland could in effect remain part of a European customs union while the rest of the UK diverged" only applies to food.
    Also if you think that the EU are at any point going to offer a customs union just for food your dreaming, why would they?

    I still come back to the point that i can see why alternative arrangements looks attractive from the UK side, but if i was an EU negotiator i see no advantages at all.

    The EU would be better off letting no deal happen and sitting back and waiting for the UK to come back cap in in hand asking for a trade deal. The EU would be in an even stronger negotiating position than they are in now.
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  10. #410
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    Re: No Deal

    i can see why alternative arrangements looks attractive from the UK side,
    I wouldn't say that looks attractive, it simply looks like a reasonable compromise.

    and waiting for the UK to come back cap in in hand asking for a trade deal.
    Negotiations shouldn't be a win/lose scenario. You go looking for a compromise that's acceptable and minimises the cost to both sides. If we exit without a deal, the EU loses. We lose more, but the EU still loses. Which then begs the question, why would the EU not accept a reasonable compromise if it's in their own interests to do so. If the only answer you can give to that question is "to make an example of the UK", well than that pretty much proves what I've been saying about them the whole time.
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  11. #411
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    I wouldn't say that looks attractive, it simply looks like a reasonable compromise.
    If you believe in the EU project and therefore you believe in the 4 main tenants of the single market which the EU of course does, then it doesn't look like a reasonable compromise, It looks like an attempt to break up the EU's common market approach.

    Negotiations shouldn't be a win/lose scenario. You go looking for a compromise that's acceptable and minimises the cost to both sides. If we exit without a deal, the EU loses. We lose more, but the EU still loses. Which then begs the question, why would the EU not accept a reasonable compromise if it's in their own interests to do so. If the only answer you can give to that question is "to make an example of the UK", well than that pretty much proves what I've been saying about them the whole time.
    Again this is a misunderstanding of the EU's approach, they are not interested in punishing us, what we dont seem to have got our heads around yet is to them the common market is fundamental to the EU project and to risk breaking it up by giving a bespoke deal to the UK which allows us to still trade on the similar terms without having to obey any of the rules risks the whole project.

    It wouldn't minimize costs and risk for them they see it as fundamentally a terrible deal for the EU, worse than letting us leave with No Deal. They know that a No Deal would be bad for everyone, they also know that the alternative arrangement sought by the UK would be good for the UK but very bad for the EU as far as they see it.

    Negotiations shouldn't be a win/lose scenario.
    Agreed but any negotiations carried out between two nations or two parties are often not equal and depend on the relative strength of your negotiating position, we have not started form a position of strength which is one of the reasons why we are where we are.
    Last edited by NeedSomeAnswers; Jun 26th, 2019 at 02:48 AM. Reason: typo
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  12. #412
    Fanatic Member 2kaud's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    we have not started form a position of strength which one of the reasons why we are where we are.
    Yep!
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  13. #413
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    they are not interested in punishing us
    I didn't say punishing, I said making an example of. Partly I was trying avoiding emotive language but partly I was recognising there is a difference between the two. One is spiteful, the other is cold hearted pragmatism designed to instil fear in the other member states.

    Do the EU want to punish us? There may be a little of bit of that but not really. Not enough to be material anyway. Do they want to hold an implicit threat over the remaining member states? Hell yeah. And you've got to consider how much respect you can have for an organisation that thinks that way.

    Edit>to put it another way, this is an organisation willing to put a dogmatic adherence to a principle above the good of it's own members, in both financial and security terms.
    Last edited by FunkyDexter; Jun 26th, 2019 at 07:28 AM.
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  14. #414
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Do they want to hold an implicit threat over the remaining member states? Hell yeah. And you've got to consider how much respect you can have for an organisation that thinks that way.
    That would only be true if they believed that the common market approach was not the best way to bring about prosperity amongst there member states, as far as the EU sees it they are protecting themselves and there member states, your assigning motives that can only be inferred and seen through an anti EU lens.

    Not that i can tell you all the EU's motive are pure they are political after all and where there is politics there is murky goings on just that i dont think it is fair to judge there motive in such a way when we dont seem to be prepared to look at our selves in the same way.


    Edit>to put it another way, this is an organisation willing to put a dogmatic adherence to a principle above the good of it's own members, in both financial and security terms.
    Sound rather like both our current Government and the current Labour party, bound by dogma and ideals and not particularly interested in taking the difficult decisions to protect there own members and citizens from the colossal damage that a No Deal brexit would bring.
    Last edited by NeedSomeAnswers; Jun 27th, 2019 at 03:03 AM.
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  15. #415
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    I don't think the two positions are different. Whether you perceive this as a stick or a carrot hardly matters. After all, you can be beaten just as well by either one (though you probably can't EAT a stick, so only a carrot works in that regard).

    Whether the EU is doing this because "unity is good" or because "disunity is bad", is really just a matter of perspective. They are two sides of the same coin.
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  16. #416
    Fanatic Member 2kaud's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    As expected, BJ now has the hot potato. We'll now see how good are his juggling skills.
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  17. #417
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    <Ahem> Post 36, third paragraph, last sentence. Called it. Well... almost... We didn't actually elect him but we've still got him:-

    "In another 10 years we will elect our own Trump but his name will probably be Nigel, Boris or Jacob."


    I know it's anathema to many, and I understand why, but we've got to deliver Brexit in a meaningful form. If we don't his name won't be Boris, it'll be Tommy or Nick.
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  18. #418
    Fanatic Member 2kaud's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    The Tory 'Remain' MPs now need to shut-up, stop posturing and get behind BJ. He won by 66% to 34% of Tory members - giving him a mandate within the Tory party. The issue is that 'only' 52% of Tory MPs voted for him - so the rebellious Tory MPs are widely out of step with their party members. IMO if BJ/Tory party doesn't deliver a meaningful Brexit, then at the next election - which may be soon if there is a vote of no confidence which at the moment is possible he'll lose - the Tory party will be all but wiped out. All the Tory MPs now need to get behind him and support him. With ministers resigning because they don't like him and saying they won't serve in his cabinet, it's like squabbling kids in a playground. Not grown-up and very un-edifying. The Tory MPs need to 'wake up and smell the coffee'.
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  19. #419
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Not going to happen...and if it does, you probably won't like it. Take a lesson from our own stangely-coiffed, one.

    I agree with what you are saying. If the MPs don't get behind him and serve up a meaningful Brexit, then you're most likely right that the Tory party is going to be devastated in the next election as they shred themselves. However, that shredding may be inevitable, and I'd say that it is. Brexit is simply too toxic, as it stands, for this not to be a serious poison pill for whichever party ends up swallowing it. The consequences will likely play out for decades, no matter what happens, and all to the detriment to the party shouldering the bulk of the blame, which is the Torries, though that's pretty much unfair to them. Sure doesn't look like Labour would handle it better at this point.
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  20. #420
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Not going to happen...and if it does, you probably won't like it. Take a lesson from our own stangely-coiffed, one.
    Agreed, I doubt the party will actually disappear. But there are folks in the Tory party who are far to the right of Boris (Boris is actually pretty mild for a tory if you ignore his stance on Brexit) and failure to move on this is going to push the party in that direction.

    I was probably being hyperbolic citing Tommy and Nick. Short of the tories actually collapsing I doubt we'll shift that far. But Nigel is a definite possibility. As part of a coalition he's not just possible, he's probable.
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  21. #421
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    I assume that Boris is going to blithely try to re-negotiate. That may be a false assumption, cause he may have just been saying it would be easy without any real intention of trying. Still, I kind of think he might believe it, so I do expect him to try.

    He'll also fail. The question I have is whether that will harm him so much that by the end of October he is seen as totally ineffectual within GB (let alone the EU). If he has no political capital left in parliament, he may not even manage to crash out. It would be a case of capitol capital capitulation.
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  22. #422
    Frenzied Member PlausiblyDamp's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    I feel so disappointed that you can't rate posts in the Chit Chat forum, simply because
    Quote Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker View Post
    capitol capital capitulation.
    deserves recognition.

  23. #423
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    It'll be interesting to see. My suspicion is that he'll get some, nominal concession from the EU which he'll try to sell as a victory. The question is how nominal the concession would be
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  24. #424
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    I assume that Boris is going to blithely try to re-negotiate. That may be a false assumption, cause he may have just been saying it would be easy without any real intention of trying. Still, I kind of think he might believe it, so I do expect him to try.
    I am pretty sure his plan it to re-negotiate while firmly threatening No-Deal, mainly because he has told us that is what he is going to do.

    I think we are jumping ahead of ourselves though, currently the Government has an incredibly slim working majority of 3 which is about to get slimmer as Brecon and Radnorshire is currently vacant as the Conservative MP was removed for fiddling his expenses and there is a by election on August 1st.

    If the Government loses this BJ will start his life as PM with a working majority of 2 so all it takes is 1 defection to the Lib Dems or for a Conservative MP to declare as an independent and say they will vote against the government and he will have no majority at all.

    I think we are in for a very turbulent few months.
    Last edited by NeedSomeAnswers; Jul 24th, 2019 at 04:14 AM.
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  25. #425
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    I know it's anathema to many, and I understand why, but we've got to deliver Brexit in a meaningful form.
    No we dont, just because some people say we do doesn't mean it has to happen, and doesn't mean it will happen.

    There is nothing inevitable about Brexit its the most decisive issue of our times and those who oppose it are not suddenly going to change there minds, and there are a lot of them in parliament.

    With Boris in charge part of me thinks it may even be more likely not to happen
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  26. #426
    Fanatic Member 2kaud's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by NeedSomeAnswers View Post
    No we dont, just because some people say we do doesn't mean it has to happen, and doesn't mean it will happen.

    There is nothing inevitable about Brexit its the most decisive issue of our times and those who oppose it are not suddenly going to change there minds, and there are a lot of them in parliament.

    With Boris in charge part of me thinks it may even be more likely not to happen
    Hey, Dude.....
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  27. #427
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    Re: No Deal

    It'll be interesting to see. My suspicion is that he'll get some, nominal concession from the EU which he'll try to sell as a victory. The question is how nominal the concession would be
    I dont think a nominal concession will cut it Theresa May tried that and it was thrown back in her face, most probably he will try and renegotiate fail, and then try and leave with no deal.

    Whether he still has a working majority in Parliament by that point though is debatable, i am expecting a general election just because of how little the scales need to tip in order for it to happen.
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  28. #428
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Don't the EU people pretty much universally and thoroughly dislike Boris?

    My bet is that he'll get no concession at all.
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  29. #429
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    Re: No Deal

    So, will the concession stand? Let's not sugar coat the issue.

    currently the Government has an incredibly slim working majority of 3
    Farage has already declared that the Brexit Party would work with him if he called a general election. I honestly don't see the left winning a GE under Corbyn, he's too toxic, so you're probably looking at a Tory/BP coalition. He's likely to have the majority he needs.
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  30. #430
    Frenzied Member PlausiblyDamp's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker View Post
    Don't the EU people pretty much universally and thoroughly dislike Boris?

    My bet is that he'll get no concession at all.
    He has pretty much insulted or otherwise offended nearly all of the EU leaders. Spent the past god knows how many years lying about the EU and making them out to be an evil dictatorship with all sorts of pointless rules. I can't see him getting any concessions at all.

  31. #431
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post
    So, will the concession stand? Let's not sugar coat the issue.
    I would say that was food for thought....except that such food tends to be food for girth, rather than thought.


    So, he has three months to get an election, concessions, and all of it passed. That's a tight window. If the election comes after the concessions, which I don't think will happen, the election may be a referendum on crashing out. That would make it more interesting. If the election comes before the EU says No, then perhaps it wouldn't be seen as a referendum.
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  32. #432
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    Re: No Deal

    I would say that was food for thought....except that such food tends to be food for girth, rather than thought.
    I ought to come up with another pun but I can't be burgerred. I'll just ketchup later.

    It'll be interesting to see if he calls an early election. If he wants long tenure he probably has to chance it. He needs Brexit to happen or he's sunk and, as NSA is saying, the arithmetic for him to get no deal passed in the commons at present is fine to say the least.

    His best bet is probably to call an early election, form a coalition with the Brexit Party and that would give him enough clout to get no deal through - or at least hold it as an, albeit weak, bargaining chip in negotiations with the EU. It's a strategy that's fraught with risk though.

    I think there's a couple of alternative strategies he might pursue. He could forego an election and just keep his fingers crossed that he can get a deal or get no deal through the commons. Or he could try to sidestep the commons completely. There are mechanisms for him to avoid the commons and mechanisms for commons to force him to put it to a vote. Unlike the US where you've got constitutions and written procedures, we've just got precedent and real politique - it would come down to who's got the best lawyers and who blinked first.
    Last edited by FunkyDexter; Jul 24th, 2019 at 02:03 PM.
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  33. #433
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    Re: No Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post
    I ought to come up with another pun but I can't be burgerred. I'll just ketchup later.
    I relish your effort. I WAS going to say that concession food is for circumference, but I didn't get around to it.

    One question I have is: If Boris gets no concessions (which I expect), or they aren't good enough, and you reach Oct 31 with parliament still being unwilling to put it's stamp on no deal, what happens? I'm not clear on what the "we can't agree on squat" default is. Does that mean a chaotic crash out, a chaotic remain in, an automatic extension, tea and crumpets, or what?
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  34. #434
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    Re: No Deal

    I WAS going to say that concession food is for circumference, but I didn't get around to it.
    Let's not go off at tangents.

    what happens?
    That's the billion dollar (or Euro... or Stirling) question. The truth is, nobody really knows.

    The situation as I currently see it is that the default position is that we simply crash out. But the commons has the power to pass new laws, which could include making no deal itself illegal. There are two obstacles to this: 1. Boris can simply not call parliament to sit or could close parliament (proroguing). He has that legal power and it happens all the time but only really for administrative purposes, holidays etc. Doing it for political purposes, particularly on an issue as important as this smacks of the sort of behaviour we haven't seen outside of wartime since Charles I (and we all know how that turned out). 2. Only government (i.e. Boris's cabinet) can introduce new law and they get to set the agenda for discussion. Meaning the only way parliament (i.e. the rest of the house) can actually get their own legislation through is to tack amendments on to bills that the government bring. Boris can avoid this by simply not bring any new bills. Again, this would be massively controversial - to freeze all government for 3 months to force through a single political position is pretty nuclear.

    The other main weapon remain have is to bring down the government entirely by a vote of no confidence. I am not clear on whether they are able to call for this if government is not sitting but they surely can if government is sitting and they don't need to piggy back it onto existing bills - they have the straight up right to call for it. In that case a majority is required in the house to dissolve the current government. There's then a brief period (2 weeks I think) for government to get it's house in order and hold a second vote - this allows, in theory, the sitting government to address the concerns that led to the vote of no confidence and remain in situ if the house accepts that those concerns have been properly addressed - can't see that happening. If the second vote goes against the government they are dissolved and other groups of MPs get the opportunity to form a new government.

    There are a few problems with the approach if you're for remain though. Asking Tory remainers to vote against a no deal is materially different to asking them to vote to bring down their own government, if there's anything they fear more than No Deal, it's Corbyn. And while the pure tory majority is extremely slim, they still have allies in the DUP and the Brexit Party. Depending on how things are panning out, those parties may or may not oppose the motion - it's very hard to predict. Secondly, it does not necessarily fall to remainers to get the first shot at forming a new government. In theory the Queen decides but she aint going to touch this mess with a barge pole so it will simply fall to who can arrange the quickest stitch up in the back rooms of the corridors of power. It could be a remain coalition, or it could be an even harder Brexit one. I think the former's more likely but it's by no means a certainty. I think the most likely would be a second referendum party. And, as with the leave strategies I mentioned above, this is massively controversial. It's seen as a form of usurpation which is generally unpopular with the country at large (particularly if it fails) and it sets a precedent the incoming replacements would rather not have to deal with. In theory, any party can call for a vote of no confidence the day after they lose a general election and every day after that - there are reasons that they are almost never called for.

    That's my understanding. It's probably imperfect and might stand some correction but the truth is, none of us really know what happens. We've never been here before and we have no precedent.

    Edit>Oh yeah, I forgot the wildcard: John Bercow. The speaker of the house is a strong remainer and his powers are murky and ill defined. He's supposed to be all about deciding and enforcing procedure but he can pretty much do anything as far as I can tell. He's meant to sit above political debate and not take sides but Bercow is openly partial. The effect he can have is a function of how far he can stretch the traditional powers of the role before he's seen as breaking/changing it's remit.
    Last edited by FunkyDexter; Jul 25th, 2019 at 02:40 AM.
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    Hadoop actually sounds more like the way they greet each other in Yorkshire - Inferrd

  35. #435
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    Re: No Deal

    Farage has already declared that the Brexit Party would work with him if he called a general election. I honestly don't see the left winning a GE under Corbyn, he's too toxic, so you're probably looking at a Tory/BP coalition. He's likely to have the majority he needs.
    Right now i agree that the left are unlikely to win under Corbyn but.... i thought they would tank before the last election and one thing that Corbyn is good at is campaigning.

    Also they dont need to win under Corbyn they could also win under Swinson (the Lib Dems) If Boris forms an electoral pact with Farage there is a fair chance he will lose a lot of votes to the Lib dems and its possible they could have the largest numbers and form a coalition with Labour without Corbyn + either of the SNP or Greens.

    All i am really saying is that having to hold early Elections are a risky business as May found out, and at a General election Farage is far more toxic to the average voter than was shown in the EU elections.

    Anyone predicting an election win under Boris/Farage i think is being a little bit hasty.
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  36. #436
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    Re: No Deal

    One question I have is: If Boris gets no concessions (which I expect), or they aren't good enough, and you reach Oct 31 with parliament still being unwilling to put it's stamp on no deal, what happens? I'm not clear on what the "we can't agree on squat" default is. Does that mean a chaotic crash out, a chaotic remain in, an automatic extension, tea and crumpets, or what?
    That's the billion dollar (or Euro... or Stirling) question. The truth is, nobody really knows.
    Yep

    What happens next is anyone's guess my feeling that there will be a General election comes down to 2 things happening and they are;

    Boris try's an fails to get a deal and publically declares for No Deal

    This then leads to either an MP or 2 quitting the conservative party and/or a no confidence motion.

    Neither of those thing are guaranteed to happen, maybe Boris backs down and goes for an extension and get eviscerated by the hard liners in his own party, maybe nobody quits as they are expecting someone else to do the job.

    It is possible that he manages to push No Deal through, but i would find it surprising as all it need is for 1 or 2 Conservative MP's to rebel and we know for a fact that there are more than that, that are hugely opposed to No Deal.

    Here is what Dominic Greive has said about Boris Yesterday -

    He’s a charlatan. I mean that is the clear evidence of his career and the way he has operated politically.
    Those of us who have worked alongside him and have had a chance of watching him can see for ourselves his modus operandi and his capacity for both deception and self deception and those are the two key ingredients of charlatanism
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  37. #437
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    they could also win under Swinson (the Lib Dems)
    Ha! You're such a joker, NSA. Even I, a staunch Lib Dem, recognise that's not going to happen. For the last half century all we've really wanted is to get a big enough minority to have a voice in the debate (which we'll then use to legalise pot and make macramé basket weaving mandatory on a Sunday). Even being the junior partner in a coalition made us all itchy and the thought of actual power is ruddy terrifying. Our heads would explode.

    I'm being facetious. Yes, it's possible that there would be a Lib Dem victory (and I must admit I'd relish it) but it's highly improbable. A labour led coalition is much more likely.

    But I still think a Tory led coalition is more likely than that. It's down to the maths. The vote is evenly split between leave and remain but the remain portion of the vote is split across more parties than the leave portion. In our system the single party that gets the most votes gets the first chance to form a coalition and, while both the leading parties are going to haemorrhage votes to the lesser, I really struggle to believe that the Tories will haemorrhage more to the BP than Labour will to the SNP, Greens, LibDems and Plaid combined.

    Division has always been the problem the left has struggled with. Historically it's why the labour party exists separate from the libs (yeah... who's your daddy?). It's why the Greens exist. It's why Militant, the Socialist Worker Party and Momentum exist. Pop along to any left wing rally and you find Marxists fighting to the death with Trotskiists (or however that's spelt) about which is the right form of socialism. Try telling a hard line labour activist that Tony was a pretty good progressive PM who actually got things done (in between minor transgressions like engaging in illegal wars, mind) and you'll see the glint of murder form in their eye as they reach for a pamphlet and a balaclava. The Left hates the Right, it's true... but nowhere near as much as it hates the rest of the Left.

    Meanwhile the right agree about everything... except the EU. I think it's because the left does ideals and ideals leave no room for compromise. Meanwhile the Right does cold hearted (and often wholly self interested) pragmatism. It's real easy to reach a consensus when you're willing to privatise your own grandmother to get a seat at the cabinet table.

    Anyway, I digress. Erm… some pun about pop corn.
    Last edited by FunkyDexter; Jul 25th, 2019 at 04:50 AM.
    You can depend upon the Americans to do the right thing. But only after they have exhausted every other possibility - Winston Churchill

    Hadoop actually sounds more like the way they greet each other in Yorkshire - Inferrd

  38. #438
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Ha! You're such a joker, NSA. Even I, a staunch Lib Dem, recognise that's not going to happen.
    I thought you would like that FD , but while of course its not likely, if Boris gets in to bed with Farage in a General Election all bets are off.

    The majority of people in the UK are fairly middle ground maybe leaning towards the right or left. Farage is hard to the right and there are a quiet a lot of conservative who wont vote for him.

    But I still think a Tory led coalition is more likely than that. It's down to the maths.
    There was an article recenty which talked about the math of Farage and Boris joining forces as a GE and when they looked at the seats they saw the majority of seats Farage has traditionally been strong in are seats with conservative majorities i will see if i can find the article but essentially they said any electoral pact would likely cannibalize either Brexit party or conservative votes more than it would win votes in Labour areas. Also it could lead the Tories vulnerable in a number of seat to the Lib Dems.

    If Boris has to call or is forced into an election because he cant solve brexit (which is how the other parties could sell it) i think it going to be a very fractured vote and very difficult to call who would win.
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  39. #439
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    Re: No Deal

    Meanwhile the right agree about everything... except the EU. I think it's because the left does ideals and ideals leave no room for compromise.
    Oh i dont know i think those at both the far left & right are pretty ideological, the Conservatives have been very practical in not allowing those at the more extreme ends of the party into positions of power in there party up until right now !!!
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  40. #440
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    if Boris gets in to bed with Farage
    Now there's an image I could have done without.

    The majority of people in the UK are fairly middle ground maybe leaning towards the right or left. Farage is hard to the right and there are a quiet a lot of conservative who wont vote for him.
    But the coalition wouldn't form until after the election. It wouldn't be a case of vote Farage, it'd be a case of vote Boris, get Farage. In 2010 nobody voted for "Tory and Lib Dem".

    Of course, if remainer Tories believe their vote is actually going to support Farage they'll probably just stay away. They might hold their nose and vote LibDem, Green etc. (though probably not, they tend not to think that way) but they absolutely won't vote Labour. They'd sooner stamp on a kitten (though they're Tories, so they'll probably do that anyway if it's a public sector kitten).

    And you've got the same effect coming from the other side. And I get the impression Farage is a lot more palatable to a Labour Leaver than Swinson is to a Remainer Tory. But I also think there are fewer of them so the effect might roughly level out.

    i think it going to be a very fractured vote and very difficult to call who would win.
    True 'Dat
    You can depend upon the Americans to do the right thing. But only after they have exhausted every other possibility - Winston Churchill

    Hadoop actually sounds more like the way they greet each other in Yorkshire - Inferrd

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