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Thread: No Deal

  1. #361
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    The thing is, I do acknowledge it may be one way out of this but I do think we should be honest about what it is. It's not an attempt to inject democracy or find out what the public thinks now. We know what the public thinks now, it thinks exactly the same as it did 3 years ago. It just thinks it harder - on both sides. A second referendum is a flip of the coin in the hopes that it will come up remain.
    I just fail to see how if the first referendum was democratic holding a second one is somehow undemocratic, Switzerland hold referendums all the time and i dont see anyone saying that they are an undemocratic nation and somehow their democracy has failed. Giving the public more says on things is not a lessening of democracy. The majority changing there mind on something or not changing there mind and have the course of action confirmed is not a lessening of democracy.

    Now that being said the argument that remainers just want a rerun of the vote in order to get a different answer is fair or course they do, but there are two things i would say to this the first referendum was held on too vague a question which meant that we have been unable for various reasons to deliver it as when we have come to the detail we cant get a parliamentary majority to pass the detail through.

    Secondly if a second referendum was held with a better question which gave unequivocal choices and explanation of exactly what would happen next in both choices (which should have happened the first time) it could break the current deadlock and provide a path forward.


    Calls for a second referendum are nothing to do with democracy and everything to do with a desire to overturn the result of the previous one.
    So i would argue that they are both a desire to overturn the result and are also to do with democracy. We hold General elections in order to be able to change our minds on the direction the country is going in, it's been around 3 years now and with all that has happened giving the people a chance to vote again and check that they still want to travel in the proposed direction especially as the proposed direction if we continue to push to leave the EU is likely to be with No Deal is not an undemocratic action.

    No Deal is a change in where we thought we were heading and getting the public to own that choice if that is indeed where we go would not be a bad thing.

    I understand when people say that Brexit won and therefore it should be enacted but there was a brexit deal right there and it couldn't be implemented.

    We have to acknowledge that a second referendum is an option and with the way parliament is deadlocked either that or a general election are the most likely ways that we have to break the deadlock.

    I know various Conservative leadership contenders have come out and basically said they would just leave the EU and not give Parliament the opportunity to block a No Deal Brexit but when faced with reality they are going to get a rude awakening on the power of Parliament.

    And with the country so evenly split it's a possibility that the coin will come up remain... and what then? Does anyone really think that's going to be closure? That the leavers will quietly go back muttering into their beer? Hell no. It'll hand Farage the biggest victory of his life. The guy threw together a party and within 1 month he has lead it to become the single biggest party in the EU. Not just the single biggest from the UK, mind, the single biggest in the entire EU. He is now the single most powerful voice in a body that wants nothing to do with him and which he wants nothing to do with. Hand him the ammunition of an overturned referendum result and just wait to see what he does in the general election that he's had several months to prepare for. You will see him in parliament and possibly even in government. Probably not government but the chief opposition? I'd put money on it.
    Now this is where i do really disagree, Farage is a great campaigner but he is a single issue guy i have seen him try to talk about things other than Brexit and he is pretty bad i think he would have more trouble than you think, there is a reason why he has failed to get elected to parliament in something like 7 attempts. I am not claiming to know exactly what would happen but i am pretty confident that Brexit party vote would not be repeated at the levels it got in the EU elections at a general election.

    What i want to know though is other than either a general election or Second referendum what is the alternative? no-one, not even leavers seem to want a negotiated deal now they know what it is so we could either just let the country leave with No Deal which as we damn well know isn't going to happen or we give people a choice again however that choice is achieved.

    What i fear far more that repercussion of not leaving, are actually leaving and letting Farage win now, Farage winning now is far more likely to give him legitimacy and push him into the mainstream of politics, history shows us when the right and far right (and lets be honest here Farage is closer to the far right than the center right) they find away to stick around.

    That is not the kind of country i want to live in and i am going to vote against it at every opportunity
    Last edited by NeedSomeAnswers; May 29th, 2019 at 09:34 AM.
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  2. #362
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    Re: No Deal

    I just fail to see how if the first referendum was democratic holding a second one is somehow undemocratic
    I'm not saying it's undemocratic (it certainly smacks of it but you can argue that either way), I'm saying the calls for it are not motivated by a defence of democracy. They're motivated solely by a desire to overturn the first referendum and avoid Brexit. At least to avoid a No Deal Brexit and, ideally, to avoid any Brexit at all.

    If they were motivated by a desire to defend democracy you would have no objection to No Deal being an option on the ballot. And given that the only thing that the first referendum can be said to have indicated was a desire to leave the EU, you would not be looking for Remain to be on the ballot.
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    Re: No Deal

    I would make the argument differently. A second referendum, at this time, after all the fractious and futile debate over Brexit thus far, would not really be a democratic choice at all. If the referendum was No Deal vs Remain, then that would be a democratic vote, but if the referendum was Leave vs Remain (roughly the same as the first time around), then it would not be democratic because the two sides are highly unequal in result. If people voted Leave, there would be further gridlock and indecision, whereas if they voted Remain, by even a single vote, everyone would say, "right then, the people have spoken, we aren't going to revisit this again." In other words, one outcome would lead to a resolute answer, the other outcome would lead to more hopeless confusion, which makes me think that such a referendum would be nothing more than the government begging the people to let them off a hook they have no means to otherwise free themselves from.

    Meanwhile, No Deal vs Remain would be two clear-cut choices, so that would be a clear vote...except that the government may only go along with the outcome only if the outcome is Remain, which isn't all that democratic even if the vote is.
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  4. #364
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    Re: No Deal

    such a referendum would be nothing more than the government begging the people to let them off a hook
    I've been saying that for a long time too. Remember the whole "abrogation of responsibility" bit earlier.

    Government's job is to govern. Either they do that or they defer to the people and respect the outcome, no matter how unpalatable. This halfway house just sows division for no purpose.

    What i fear far more that repercussion of not leaving, are actually leaving and letting Farage win now
    History shows us that Farage goes away when his issue goes away. You can see that in the results of the 2016 general election. Leave won the referendum and he immediately became an irrelevance. As it's become obvious that a meaningful Brexit is being by-passed he's back with a vengeance. You're right that he's a single issue politician and that's both his strength and his weakness. Any leave stronger than Brino would kick the legs out from under him. Brino or remain are his launch-pad.

    i am going to vote against it at every opportunity
    And well you should. I wouldn't discourage either side from continuing to campaign for their desired outcome - that's democracy. But I do think we should be more honest about the way we're doing it. The sort of double speak both sides engage in really just diminishes the debate IMO and means we move from meaningful discussion into meaningless rhetoric - like "Brexit means Brexit"... yeah, both sides do it.

    Back to voting Lib Dem, by the way. I am capable of ludicrous levels of cognitive disonance
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  5. #365
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    If they were motivated by a desire to defend democracy you would have no objection to No Deal being an option on the ballot
    If the referendum was No Deal vs Remain, then that would be a democratic vote
    I agree looking at where we are now if a second referendum was to ever occur then No Deal probably should be on the Ballot paper as should remain in fact you could argue that however the choice comes about, really its now about a choice between those 2 options.

    In other words, one outcome would lead to a resolute answer, the other outcome would lead to more hopeless confusion
    Personally the more i look into it the more i am convinced leaving with No Deal would actually just be the start of a new negotiating phase and certainly not the clean break lots of people seem to think it will be, but you cant argue that it would be a clear choice even if i can argue about the consequences of that choice.

    As i said in my last post if there really is a majority for No Deal then having the people own that choice would not be a terrible idea.

    We will very likely have to go through the new PM trying to take us out with No Deal automatically first and for that to fail and only then at that point it will be either a General Election of a Referendum as a means to break the deadlock and either way it will be No Deal Vs Remain.
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  6. #366
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    Re: No Deal

    Back to voting Lib Dem, by the way. I am capable of ludicrous levels of cognitive disonance
    Huh i voted Green at the EU's, and the way thing are right now i can't be certain who i will vote for at the next election.
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  7. #367
    Fanatic Member 2kaud's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    For a referendum, I submit that the 2 choices should be:
    - exit with the EU's deal (either current or what ever else can be negotiated with them by the new PM)
    - exit without any deal

    IMO those choices would honour the previous referendum and democracy etc. But with the current MPs in parliament - this would be unlikely to pass. So yes, those wanting a second want to remain and overturn the result of the first. It's always been like this. Every, but every, time a vote has gone against what the EU wants then there has been further votes until the voters have changed their mind and agreed with what ever the EU wants. The tactics from the remainers from the start have been to delay, prevaricate, obstruct etc etc until there is an impas as of now - so that they can say that Parliament can't sort it (because of their tactics) so it must go back to another referendum which they hope they'll win.

    PS With Bercow now saying he's going to stay on as Speaker until Brexit is sorted one way or another, the chance of a no-confidence vote in the next PM if they try to delay and leave by default on 31 Oct has increased - as he'll bend/make-up parliament rules as he goes along to help this.

    PPS Just to add some more ingredients into the pot, the SNP have announced they're bringing in legislation for an independence vote for late in 2020 - as they don't want Scotland to leave the EU. They'd rather leave the UK and stay in the EU than stay in the UK and leave the EU. This is expected to pass in the Scottish Parliament but has to have UK government approval for it to be legitimate. The pro EU parties in Northern Ireland are also making noises about a referendum for Northern Ireland to leave the UK and become part of a united Isle of Ireland. So not only has the next PM got to see of Farrage and take us out of the EU, they also have to contend with independence votes if that happens. Stay in the EU (with some sort of very soft deal) and keep together the UK but get decimated in England by Farrage - or have a hardish Brexit to see off Farrage, keep your voting base in England but risk breaking up the UK.

    and there are how many Conservative MPs now saying they want this job? What's that about catch 22 - its takes a sane person to do this job, but only an insane person would want it....

    and yes, Farrage's party is a single issue party - a hard Brexit. Once the UK leaves the EU and we have no more MEPs, this party will go away. The Brexit party will fight all elections until that happens. So if a GE is called because of losing a confidence vote before we exit the EU, then Farrage's party will stand in probably nearly every seat and will decimate the Conservative vote and the Labour vote in the North. The Conservatives will stand no chance of getting an outright majority and possibly not even be the single biggest party. That's why they don't want a GE above everything else.
    Last edited by 2kaud; May 29th, 2019 at 10:25 AM.
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  8. #368
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by NeedSomeAnswers View Post

    As i said in my last post if there really is a majority for No Deal then having the people own that choice would not be a terrible idea.
    You've managed to actually convince me that it would be a bad idea. You are probably right that a no-deal Brexit would just be the start. After that, there would be negotiations for trade deals in a fairly frantic/desperate fashion, since the status quo, at that point, will be pretty horrible. So, by requiring people to say quite explicitly, "yes, this IS what we want", then you've cut off your lines of retreat. If crashing out is as bad as everybody is forecasting, then it's likely better to let EVERY person say, "well, THIS is not what I wanted", in which case negotiations for deals can be supported by all sides cause nobody has to own the disaster.

    By doing that, then if it proves not to be a disaster, the hard leavers will back it, and if it proves to be a disaster, then they'd be more willing to disown it and back deals. Making people admit they were wrong is pretty difficult because lots of people simply won't, so don't make anybody be wrong. Since no softer Brexit seems likely to get enough support from all parties, it may be best to just let things crash out and rebuild from there rather than deal with the rancor that any other solution is sure to entail. At least with a crash that nobody owns, everybody gets to gloat a bit, deny enough, and feel good about fixing the problem.
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  9. #369
    Fanatic Member 2kaud's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    I'll run this one up the flag pole.

    What about formally have a PM and Deputy PM as joint nominations - like they do in the USA? I know we don't currently have a formal post as DPM, but we could. Then for a joint ticket we could either have a brixiteer PM and a 'one nation' DPM, with the PM doing the Brexit stuff and the DPM the home issues - or a 'one nation' PM doing the home stuff and a brixiteer DPM doing the Brexit stuff. That will enable both Brexit to get the full attention it needs - and also the home issues full attention so that the Conservatives stand a chance at the next election.
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  10. #370
    Fanatic Member 2kaud's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    it may be best to just let things crash out and rebuild from there rather than deal with the rancor that any other solution is sure to entail. At least with a crash that nobody owns, everybody gets to gloat a bit, deny enough, and feel good about fixing the problem.
    Yep.
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    Re: No Deal

    You want to copy the President/Vice President model? I believe that the Vice President post was described as being, "not worth a bucket of warm spit" by a vice president....yep, it was John Nance Garner, VP to Roosevelt for a couple years, though there are some variations on the container used in the phrase.
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    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    I know we don't currently have a formal post as DPM
    I think we do, don't we. I know Prescot, for example was deputy pm under Blair. And wasn't that Clegg's position under Cameron? I don't know if its a formal appointment (as in enshrined in law) but we certainly have the concept.

    I think the big change you're proposing, though, isn't the DPM position but rather that we, the public, should directly vote for the PM and DPM rather than the largest party appointing from within. I genuinely don't know whether that would be a good or a bad thing as I've never really thought it through. I would observe that the US governmental process "locks up" a lot more frequently than ours though.

    it's likely better to let EVERY person say, "well, THIS is not what I wanted"
    How would you do that? I get the "it's good to let folks save face" argument but I don't think I understand how you get people to not vote for an outcome. Unless your saying we should just let the process fail until we crash out by default.
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    Fanatic Member 2kaud's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    I think the big change you're proposing, though, isn't the DPM position but rather that we, the public, should directly vote for the PM and DPM rather than the largest party appointing from within.
    The suggestion was that the position of the DPM becomes a formal appointment and that the Leader/Deputy Leader of a party should be elected together (by the rules of the relevant party) and then the Leader of the party in power becomes PM and the Deputy Leader becomes DPM. I acknowledge there are many issues with this, but it's potentially one way to heal splits within a party.
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  14. #374
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    For a referendum, I submit that the 2 choices should be:
    - exit with the EU's deal (either current or what ever else can be negotiated with them by the new PM)
    - exit without any deal
    You can submit them but they are not really what our choices are any more. The negotiated deal is dead in the water you might as well just leave with No Deal than have a referendum on those two options.

    Every, but every, time a vote has gone against what the EU wants then there has been further votes until the voters have changed their mind and agreed with what ever the EU wants.
    I am not sure where you get your evidence for this from and what it has got to do with our current predicament as the EU dont have a Vote.

    the chance of a no-confidence vote in the next PM if they try to delay and leave by default on 31 Oct has increased
    A No confidence vote in the Government has nothing to do with the Speaker, all that has to happen is the main opposition party has to call it and then win the vote, which if a No Deal Brexit was pursued is pretty likely.

    The Brexit party will fight all elections until that happens. So if a GE is called because of losing a confidence vote before we exit the EU, then Farrage's party will stand in probably nearly every seat and will decimate the Conservative vote and the Labour vote in the North.
    Oh i am sure they will stand but a General Election is far far different from a single issue campaign, Farage's other policies will actually be scrutinized for a start and also the Brexit party will not be able to rely on just him as we will be directly electing MP's and those Candidates for the Brexit Party will have to campaign themselves they cant just rely on Nigel to do it all for them in a GE.

    Also i live in the North of England and this idea that all of the North somehow want to leave the EU is just nonsense its pretty split generally and there are lots and lots of remain voters here in particularly in Manchester where i am from. While i have no doubt that Farage and co would gain votes the Labour vote will stand up fairly well in most areas, those voters are not about to hand another election to the Conservatives, different motives come into play in a GE.
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    Re: No Deal

    then it's likely better to let EVERY person say, "well, THIS is not what I wanted", in which case negotiations for deals can be supported by all sides cause nobody has to own the disaster.
    I get what your saying but i was thinking the opposite, not because i want to be able to say i told you so when it all goes wrong, but that those who voted for it and the parties that carried it out would not be able to hide form the choices they made, and i would hope then that we might start moving away from the like of Nigel Farage and populist parties like his.
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  16. #376
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    Re: No Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post
    How would you do that? I get the "it's good to let folks save face" argument but I don't think I understand how you get people to not vote for an outcome. Unless your saying we should just let the process fail until we crash out by default.
    Yeah, I think that's where I was going. At this point, getting enough support for anything seems very unlikely, and putting out a new referendum in hopes that a narrow majority will vote remain, just doesn't seem like a resolution...but that leaves only one route left, which is crashing out. To paraphrase Sherlock Holmes, once you have exhausted every other alternative, whatever remains, no matter how horrible, is the one you'll have to take.

    The only other alternative that I really see is a more complex referendum with at least three options: Remain, Crash Out, and the EU offer. That would guarantee no majority for anything, so it could be done as a series of binary choices, but there would be very few people happy with the outcome no matter what. So, if it's going to be wrecked, then get on with it, make it nobodies explicit fault, then pick up the pieces. As far as the shredding of public unity is concerned, the damage is already done. As far as economic damage is concerned...that's probably inevitable, so it would be better to try to mend the rift in the country so that healing can occur. I don't feel strongly that this is a good idea, it just seems like it's slightly better than any other alternative. Glad it's not my country.

    And as to that, I rather admire the parliamentary system. Ours has worked fairly well for a pretty long time (except for that little Civil War thing, but....meh, everybody has those), but it is also designed for gridlock, and gridlock rules the day, these days. For a very long time, pretty much as far back as any fairly reliable polling has gone, the left and right overlapped greatly in the middle. Over the last decade, that has stopped. All surveys show that the sides have very little common ground anymore, and have more personal animosity towards the other side. Frankly, I feel that there is no coincidence that this has coincided with the rise of FaceBook, and studies are starting to back that up more and more. Social media (not just FB, but Twitter and others) are based on getting and holding attention, which is best done through outrage, which drives people apart. Whatever the cause, the result is that, when we end up with divided government, as we have now, getting anything done is pretty hard.

    On the other hand, you've now shown a weakness to representative government in general. I don't think we'd be better at handling Brexit, and we can't hold elections willy-nilly, as you can. Partial changes can only come every two years, and larger changes every four, but that's it. Still, while we'd be hopelessly deadlocked, you haven't solved the problem, either. Large, divisive, issues on which the public is pretty well split, are really tough for a representative government to solve.
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    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by 2kaud View Post
    The suggestion was that the position of the DPM becomes a formal appointment and that the Leader/Deputy Leader of a party should be elected together (by the rules of the relevant party) and then the Leader of the party in power becomes PM and the Deputy Leader becomes DPM. I acknowledge there are many issues with this, but it's potentially one way to heal splits within a party.
    They do not for us. I realize that it could be used that way, and there was a time when we kind of did use the VP position that way, but we've moved to where the VP is picked to draw some set of votes (either a particular state, or some voting block), and is otherwise powerless and meaningless.

    Mike Pence is a sycophantic idiot, but that wasn't a revelation. He had done some really stupid, tone-deaf, things as governor of Indiana. However, Indiana was a fairly important state, and there was no doubting his evangelical credentials. Trump needed somebody weak, bland, and evangelical. He couldn't have done better. There was no healing any rift, it was pure politics, and that's likely how any such system would turn out.
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    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    I am not sure where you get your evidence for this from
    I've seen it asserted more than once that every single referendum held by an EU nation that had to do with EU policy which did not go the EU's way has subsequently been overturned or bypassed. My guess is that that's the claim 2Kaud is referencing. I've looked for a source for it and can't easily find anything that either supports or denies it. I will say that I'm inclined to believe it.

    Several nations (France and Spain if I recall correctly) held referenda when the EU wanted to implement an EU constitution and the result was that they could not agree to the change. In the event the EU simply implemented a treaty which had every single clause from the constitution in it. Because it was a treaty, not a constitution, the existing national constitutions did not require a referendum. In other words: bureaucratic goal achieved, will of the people ignored.

    That's what I see time and time again when I look at the EU. People don't matter, it's all about the machine.
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    Fanatic Member 2kaud's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    I see that BJ's collar has been felt. Will the next PM be the first to govern from a prison cell? Will he be let out on 'work experience' for good behaviour? if the sentence is for more than a year, he'll have to stand down as an MP and we'll have a by-election and an election for a new PM. Will there be a recall petition as there was for Fiona Onasanya - with the same effect?

    I though August was the political 'silly season' - but it seems to have come very early this year. Something to do with Climate Change caused by a Farage...?
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    Re: No Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post
    I've seen it asserted more than once that every single referendum held by an EU nation that had to do with EU policy which did not go the EU's way has subsequently been overturned or bypassed. My guess is that that's the claim 2Kaud is referencing. I've looked for a source for it and can't easily find anything that either supports or denies it. I will say that I'm inclined to believe it.

    Several nations (France and Spain if I recall correctly) held referenda when the EU wanted to implement an EU constitution and the result was that they could not agree to the change. In the event the EU simply implemented a treaty which had every single clause from the constitution in it. Because it was a treaty, not a constitution, the existing national constitutions did not require a referendum. In other words: bureaucratic goal achieved, will of the people ignored.

    That's what I see time and time again when I look at the EU. People don't matter, it's all about the machine.
    Yes. There's also the case of Ireland voting more than once. They first rejected it then the EU changed the ordering, applied some arm twisting, said it was a new one and lo and behold Ireland then voted for it!
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  21. #381
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    That's pretty common. Lead-bottom negotiating, I believe.

    Is BJ Boris? What did he do?
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  22. #382
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    Re: No Deal

    Is BJ Boris? What did he do?
    He made a false claim that we sent 350M to the EU and that we could use it to finance the NHS instead. A guy crowd funded a private prosecution (which I didn't know was even a thing until now) for misconduct in public office against him and a district court has allowed it to go to trial in crown court.

    I personally think this is a bad idea. I get the attraction of the principle that politicians should be held to their word but I think it's fraught with problems. For a start, how do you define a lie? Is a statistic stretched to it's most favourable interpretation (which is basically what Boris did - although he perhaps stretched it beyond that) a lie? What about a campaign promise that a party subsequently finds it can't keep? The areas of grey are huge.

    And then there's the question of whether the courts are really a better way of settling this sort of thing than the court of public opinion. It's certainly more thorough but it sure as hell won't be quicker as appeals and counter suits start flying back and forth. It's basically the approach you guys take over that side of the pond and it looks to me like a recipe for more gridlock. I think public opinion is a better approach but it does require a robust media that holds public confidence and I think that's being eroded at present, worryingly.
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  23. #383
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    That's what I see time and time again when I look at the EU. People don't matter, it's all about the machine.
    I disagree the EU is more about its people then some national governments, its provided more robust citizens rights than even the UK or Germany the richest of the EU states and it has done a huge about in providing a legal framework to back this up.

    The big problem with the EU is its structure which means decision making can be distant and authoritarian and the fact for a number of years now the EU has been controlled by the center left and center right which had pushed a certain agenda, but the EU is us, its controlled by its member states and as one of the biggest the UK has had great input into its direction of travel.

    In the recent election power structure will change as votes have changed and this will change the direction of the EU, and i still maintain be being in the EU you can reform and change it for the better, and its worth it because the benefits it provides are great.
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  24. #384
    Fanatic Member 2kaud's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    I personally think this is a bad idea. I get the attraction of the principle that politicians should be held to their word but I think it's fraught with problems. For a start, how do you define a lie? Is a statistic stretched to it's most favourable interpretation (which is basically what Boris did - although he perhaps stretched it beyond that) a lie? What about a campaign promise that a party subsequently finds it can't keep? The areas of grey are huge.
    I agree that the courts should not get involved in this - hence my slightly 'tongue in cheek' post. However, in this particular case the Office For National Statistics issued a clear warning following early use of the 350M figure that it was misleading. BJ (and others) ignored the warning and continued to use the figure disputed by the ONS. The ONS said that the figure to use should be 250M. Why he/they kept on using the 350M figure instead of 250M when both are big sums of money... If they had changed to 250M BJ wouldn't be subject now to this court case. I doubt if anyone would think - wow 350M we've better leave, against what only 250M we'll just remain. Despite the procrastinations of Marcus Ball, this is all about getting the leave result overturned. The timing on the eve of the ballots for Conservative Party leader is spot on to destabilise him - and give impetus to the 'Stop Boris' campaign amongst the MPs. As the court case is at least a few months away, who's going to support for leader a person who if PM could be making an appearance in the dock of a Crown Court.
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  25. #385
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    i still maintain be being in the EU you can reform and change it for the better
    I think you've got a better chance from within than from without (which was one of the reasons I voted remain) but I honestly don't think you've got a significant chance either way. A lot of Anti-EU folks portray it as having a sinister agenda but I don't think it even has that. It just has momentum. It's going to go where it's going to go and nobody is steering anything.

    this is all about getting the leave result overturned
    I disagree. I think this is anti-Boris rather than anti-Brexit. The two are pretty hard to separate but I think this is an attack on Boris because he supported Brexit rather than an attack on Brexit itself. It's certainly deliberately timed to impact his leadership bid though.
    Last edited by FunkyDexter; May 31st, 2019 at 06:02 AM.
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  26. #386
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    Re: No Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post
    He made a false claim that we sent 350M to the EU and that we could use it to finance the NHS instead. A guy crowd funded a private prosecution (which I didn't know was even a thing until now) for misconduct in public office against him and a district court has allowed it to go to trial in crown court.

    I personally think this is a bad idea. I get the attraction of the principle that politicians should be held to their word but I think it's fraught with problems. For a start, how do you define a lie? Is a statistic stretched to it's most favourable interpretation (which is basically what Boris did - although he perhaps stretched it beyond that) a lie? What about a campaign promise that a party subsequently finds it can't keep? The areas of grey are huge.
    If the Office for National Statistics, whose job is to know these things, actually tells you the figure is wrong and you choose to keep on using the figure then it seems a lot more like a deliberate lie than an accidental mistake. Repeating a lie doesn't make it true. Stretching a statistic is one thing, inflating it by about 30% (not done the maths, so I could be guilty of stretching the facts as well ) definitely seems to be a deliberate untruth.

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post
    And then there's the question of whether the courts are really a better way of settling this sort of thing than the court of public opinion. It's certainly more thorough but it sure as hell won't be quicker as appeals and counter suits start flying back and forth. It's basically the approach you guys take over that side of the pond and it looks to me like a recipe for more gridlock. I think public opinion is a better approach but it does require a robust media that holds public confidence and I think that's being eroded at present, worryingly.
    I would completely agree with you about public opinion being a better way of dealing with this but as you say the biased media and the seeming inability for mainstream news to ever correct or ask for evidence when outlandish claims are made undermines this. When you also take into account how few members of the public ever seem to do their own research either it results in these lies being treated as truth anyway.

  27. #387
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    If we were allowed to crowd fund cases against our president for false statements....our economy couldn't take it.
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  28. #388
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    We're crowdfunding his return ticket...
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  29. #389
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Throw a milkshake on him. He'd love it....just make sure it's vanilla.
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  30. #390
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    Re: No Deal

    I think you've got a better chance from within than from without (which was one of the reasons I voted remain) but I honestly don't think you've got a significant chance either way. A lot of Anti-EU folks portray it as having a sinister agenda but I don't think it even has that. It just has momentum. It's going to go where it's going to go and nobody is steering anything.
    I think this is the fundamental problem that the EU has, i dont believe that no-one is steering and making decisions but i do believe that a fair amount of that decision making process is to distant and not visible enough so the average person doesn't know whats going on and what the value of it is.

    In the past pre 2008 world where economies where booming they got away with it as the good economic news drowned everything else out, but people are not happy just letting those in Brussels just get on with it any more. They want more accountability and more transparency and the EU would benefit from more of both.
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  31. #391
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    Re: No Deal

    a fair amount of that decision making process is to distant and not visible
    The problem is not just that it's just that it's distant and lacks transparency, it's that it's also uncaring and unheeding of it's constituents.
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  32. #392
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    Re: No Deal

    The problem is not just that it's just that it's distant and lacks transparency, it's that it's also uncaring and unheeding of it's constituents.
    I dont see the EU as any more or less uncaring or unheeding of its constituents than any of the national governments in Europe, i could point to our own government and say that many of its policies are uncaring or unheeding of many constituents but the reality of the situation is that they heed there own voters, and the EU is much the same.

    The EU is a reflection of us and if we dont like what we see in the mirror then we should look to change that not break the mirror so we dont have to look any more.
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  33. #393
    Fanatic Member 2kaud's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Basically the EU is built around the notion of 'ever closer union' which is stated in the 1983 Solemn Declaration on European Union. Everything that the EU does tries to make progress towards this and anything which is against this is tries to be delayed/frustrated/ignored.
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  34. #394
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    I don't see the EU as any more or less uncaring or unheeding of its constituents than any of the national governments in Europe
    Oh it absolutely is. The difference between the European governments and the EU is that the decisions in the former are made by an elected body and implemented by the bureaucracy. In the latter they're haggled over by an irrelevant elected body and the bureaucracy implements whatever the hell it wants with some input by national heads of state.

    I said up the front of the thread that the EU was undemocratic. Lots of people challenge me on that on the basis that we elect our European Members of Parliament… so the EU answers to us right? Try this social experiment: turn to the person next to you and ask them the name of their European Member of Parliament... thought not. Now ask them if they know who the EU's chief negotiator is... yup, thought so. And that's immediately after we've just had the most engaged election in the EU's history.

    The EU may be democratic in it's declared principles. But it sure as hell 'aint in practice.
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  35. #395
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Try this social experiment: turn to the person next to you and ask them the name of their European Member of Parliament... thought not. Now ask them if they know who the EU's chief negotiator is... yup, thought so.
    I am not disagreeing that there is a democracy problem with the EU, i just disagree on its scale. We all know there are problems with the EU as an institution but i just see them as an extension of issues with our own democracy and democratic processes.

    and countering your experiment above speak to the person next you and ask them to name there own local MP ? i think you would find a huge number of people have no idea who it is, heck most people i know dont know who is in the Cabinet bar Theresa May.

    Basically in British politics they have heard of Theresa May, Boris, Corbyn, Farage and thats about it!
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  36. #396
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    So the Brexit Party failed to win the Peterborough by-election even though they had an almost perfect storm of circumstance on there side.

    This i feel shows how much more difficult they will find it to win seats in parliament than in the EU.
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  37. #397
    Fanatic Member 2kaud's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    What happened was that not enough voters deserted the Conservatives for the Brexit Party. The total of votes for both was well above that of Labour. This is why the Conservatives need to sort Brexit ASAP. If a good Brexit (for the majority of Conservative voters) isn't obtained a while before the next general election, IMO Labour will win strongly as the Brexit/right of centre vote is split. The pundits are saying that with Labour on 'only' 31% of the vote in that by-election, they won't get an overall majority if a GE was held now. I don't really agree. With the vote split between Brexit and Conservatives, 30% of the vote (or even less) could ensure an overall majority for Labour. UKIP are now a spent force, but they're still getting some votes - taking from probably Brexit Party. It wouldn't have affected the outcome in this election, but it might in others.

    If you assume the Conservatives are for Brexit and Labour, Liberal Democrats and Green are against then:

    Brexit gets 17444 votes (53%)
    Remain gets 15678 votes (47%)

    which is pretty much how we voted in the 2016 referendum!


    PS BJ's collar has been cleaned from when it was felt. The appeal against having to stand trial has been thrown out as no case to answer. That was always the likely outcome.
    All advice is offered in good faith only. You are ultimately responsible for the effects of your programs and the integrity of the machines they run on. Anything I post, code snippets, advice, etc is licensed as Public Domain https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/

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  38. #398
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    I actually think it will be a hung parliament in one direction or the other so your probably looking at a Tory/Brexit or a Lab/Lib coalition or some sort of confidence and supply set up along those lines. My hunch would be a Cons/Brex one but it mostly depends on which side's vote is more divided rather than which side has more overall. Ie a 35% + 20% would beat out a 30% + 30% because the 35% would get the first chance to form a coalition or minority government, even though the latter actually got a better combined share.

    Trying to get my head round all the factors at play there:-
    1. A Tory failure to deliver Brexit would push their voters strongly toward Farage, dividing that vote further.
    2. Labour continuing to fence sit would push their voters strongly toward Liberals or Green but probably not as bigger factor 1 above
    3. The remain side is really divided between 4 parties (Lab, Lib, Green and SNP) whereas Leave only really has two (Tory and Brexit) (Neither UKIP nor Change UK are relevant IMO)
    4. Does Labour have more or less leave voters that are likely to defect than Tory has remain voters who would defect? I don't know but my suspicion is that it does.

    When I look at the above I think 3 is probably the killer factor. The remain vote is split across a wider camp, unless they go for an alliance and start endorsing each other's candidates at the polls. With that in mind I'd predict a Tory + Brexit coalition or confidence and supply deal but there's a lot of what ifs in there and I'd want good odds before I placed a bet.
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  39. #399
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Does it really matter? The next PM is headed to the gallows, it's just a matter of what face they put on it...and how much damage they can do along the way. The bottom line remains that there is no consensus and everything close to a compromise is detested by a sizable portion of the public and the parliament, including no consensus itself.
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  40. #400
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    What happened was that not enough voters deserted the Conservatives for the Brexit Party.
    Yes that was exactly my point, it will be difficult for the Brexit party at GE because when it come to choosing a government Voters wont use a protest vote the same way will in an EU election also the turnout will be much higher than at the EU elections and there are people that will come out to vote at a GE that have and always will vote conservative which will make it much more difficult for the Brexit party to win MP's.

    I actually think it will be a hung parliament in one direction or the other
    Yes i agree that it highly likely right now that we would have a coalition or confidence and supply arrangement, i dont think anyone can right now say with any conviction which side would win an election i think it would be a very very close call

    If you assume the Conservatives are for Brexit and Labour, Liberal Democrats and Green are against then:

    Brexit gets 17444 votes (53%)
    Remain gets 15678 votes (47%)
    I think you have your numbers wrong there 2kaud at the EU election just gone the numbers where

    Brexit Party - 30.5%
    Conservative Party - 8.8%
    Lib Dems - 19.6%
    Labour - 13.6%
    Greens - 11.8%
    SNP - 3.6%
    UKIP - 3.2%
    Change UK 3.3%

    If we did a straight right and left split it would be

    42.5 vs 51.9 (with the remaining 5 - 6% spread out amongst independents or small parties)

    Now its not as simple as that as not all Labour voters would vote remain and to a lesser extent not all Conservative voters would vote leave, the argument has been for a while now is just how many Labour voters do want to leave the EU and also does that number change significantly in the case of a No Deal brexit.

    My Feeling is that in the case of a No Deal Brexit you will find a lot fewer labor voters who want to leave and if a No Deal Brexit is pursued and circumstances then pushes us towards a General Election all bets are off and i wouldn't be at all surprised for a remain parties coalition to win it.

    The Conservatives do not want a General Election before they have dealt with Brexit as they know it would be very difficult for them
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