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Thread: No Deal

  1. #521
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Nothing's changing because Parliament aren't currently sitting. They're back at the beginning of September and it'll all kick off then.

    The only significant movement I can think of has been Jeremy Corbyn writing to all the remainers suggesting he be made interim PM in the event of a vote of no confidence. It got some very tentative interest from the Greens and SNP but the Lib Dems blew a loud and predictable raspberry at it.

    So just to summarise: our last PM came to power without being elected. Our current PM has not been elected. And JC would like to be our next PM without being elected. Ain't democracy grand?!
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  2. #522
    Fanatic Member 2kaud's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    We've now into 'silly season' when MPs are on holiday and Parliament isn't sitting. The latest wheeze by the moaners is for Corbyn to form a temporary 'Unity National Government' with him as PM with ministers from different parties after BJ loosing a vote a no-confidence. Then Corbyn will ask for an extension for Article 50, call an election and then have another referendum. If anyone thinks Corbyn is serious about voluntarily giving up being PM once he's in No 10, then I have a nice castle for sale on the outskirts of London....... The LibDems have already said no to this idea.
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  3. #523
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Jo Swinson has just proposed Kenneth Clarke or Harriet Harmen as alternatives.

    If the Government of National Unity (if that's not some Orwellian double speak, I don't know what is) idea is to succeed, those are the sort of figures you need to go looking for: Elder Statesmen (or Statesladies) capable of garnering cross party support. I still think it'd be a long shot but under Corbyn there's snowballs chance of it succeeding. He's just too toxic to too many MPs. Large portions of his own party can't stand him and there no way Tory Rebels are going to give him their support.
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    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Wow, that sounds like a joke...if it weren't true. "Let's all get together and agree that I'm the best person to lead." Unreal.
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    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    "Let's all get together and agree that I'm the best person to lead."
    To be fair, isn't that the basis of every Presidential/Prime Ministerial election campaign there's ever been?
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  6. #526
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    I can see why you'd say that, but I was being even more facetious than you thought. Most candidates expect to win their party, and hope to get in a bunch of swing voters. They never expect to get both sides to agree that they are best. When talking about a national unity government to solve a problem, you really are talking about getting all but the fringes to come together to solve some issue. For Corbyn to think that all sides would agree that he was the best to solve....anything, would be purely delusional to the point of farce. You need to find somebody non-polarizing to fill that role, which often also means relatively unknown. He's anything but that.
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  7. #527
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    Re: No Deal

    I guess it'll have to be somebody neutral. Maybe they can draft somebody from Ireland since the byzantine rule book seems bottomless and subject to revision on the fly. Plus that may help the UK eventually absorb Ireland as part of the Brexitation process. It's sort of the UK's Canada anyway, right?

  8. #528
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    You need to find somebody non-polarizing to fill that role
    Agreed, and, no Corbyn 'aint it. I'm not sure they need to be an unknown, though. In fact, Ken Clarke has now said something along the lines of "I wouldn't rule out accepting the PMship if it was for the good of the country". I don't know how well you'll know Ken Clark but he's been a big fish. He was a successful Chancellor of the Exchequer under Margaret Thatcher and has continued to be active and visible in the Tory for four decades now. He's certainly a Tory by nature but he's no ideologue and has been willing to stand up against the party line when he thought it was wrong. He's a centrist and has a reputation for common sense politics.

    I don't like his party but I do like Kenneth Clarke. <- You need somebody that enough people feel that way about.

    subject to revision on the fly
    It is. We don't have a constitution, we have precedent... and that's wildly more interpretable.

    Plus that may help the UK eventually absorb Ireland
    Not gonna happen. I think people really misunderstand Ireland when they say things like "it can become part of the UK" or, it's opposite, "Northern Ireland can leave the UK and formally reunite with Eire".

    Eire is an independent country, not part of the UK and has no ties to it beyond being a geographical neighbour. Saying it could become part of the UK is the equivalent of saying France should become part of Germany and nobodies pursued that idea since 1939.

    Northern Ireland is part of Ireland and part of the UK and there is absolutely no dichotomy in that because the Northern Irish see Northern Ireland as part of the UK. Their Irishness is a geographical feature (of which they are extremely proud) but their national identity is British. Expecting Northern Ireland to join Eire is the equivalent of expecting Greenland to become part of the US. And nobodies seriously suggesting that.

    Wait, what? He's suggesting what now?!
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  9. #529
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    I don't know Ken Clark at all...unless that's just a variation on Clark Kent. He'd be super, man.
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  10. #530
    Fanatic Member 2kaud's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker View Post
    I don't know Ken Clark at all...unless that's just a variation on Clark Kent. He'd be super, man.
    Ken Clark is Father of the House (longest continuous serving MP) is, and always has been, pro EU. He's a very experienced cabinet minister. If it wasn't for his pro EU views he would have been Tory leader and probably PM. Except for the EU, you'd probably class him as a 'One Nation' Tory. He's widely respected and regarded across the political divide.
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    Re: No Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post
    Not gonna happen. I think people really misunderstand Ireland when they say things like "it can become part of the UK" or, it's opposite, "Northern Ireland can leave the UK and formally reunite with Eire".

    Eire is an independent country, not part of the UK and has no ties to it beyond being a geographical neighbour. Saying it could become part of the UK is the equivalent of saying France should become part of Germany and nobodies pursued that idea since 1939.
    Er, it's a gag.

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  12. #532
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    Re: No Deal

    it's a gag
    Fair enough but you'd be amazed how many people are proposing that sort of thing as a serious option at the moment. I mean, it's that kind of thinking that would make someone think they can buy Greenland.
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  13. #533
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    He only wants to buy Greenland because he's thinking people there will be extra-Nordic.
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    Re: No Deal

    He'd heard there was this thing called the Green New Deal that might be a real vote winner... then he got confused.
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  15. #535
    MS SQL Powerposter szlamany's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    I admire how you guys discuss so nicely the issues of your BREXIT...

    But Trump is just always a joke.

    Greenland and China and Russia and airports and military control - those are the issues at hand. We can joke about Greenland and then when 10 years from now it's got Chinese and Russian influence causing problems who's going to laugh?

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    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    But Trump is just always a joke.
    You said it

    Greenland and China and Russia and airports and military control - those are the issues at hand.
    Actually, I agree. The US acquiring Greenland would be strategically sensible and I can fully understand why Trump wanted to.

    The craziness doesn't lie with Trump wanting to buy Greenland, it lies with him thinking it would ever have been an option. The fact that he (or his team) couldn't even be bothered to check the legal situation (Denmark couldn't sell it even if they wanted to); that he appears to have set up a presidential visit to Denmark solely to ask Mette Frederiksen if he could buy it like he was popping down to the local wall-mart; and that he then threw a hissy fit and started insulting one of your most important international allies when he realised he wasn't going to get his own way makes him look like a spoiled, petulant child.

    I can understand (though not agree with) those who support Trump but how you can look on this particular episode without laughing at him is beyond me. His behaviour has been utterly ridiculous.

    Actually, that's probably a large part of why we're able to discuss Brexit so civilly. When our leaders behave like idiots (and they frequently are at the moment) we're willing to criticise and mock them, even the ones who enjoy our broad support. We don't entrench.
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  17. #537
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Trump support is unusually robust support. I don't remember another president who had that KIND of support. There's a guy who drives around Boise with a Trump flag. If any other president even HAD a flag, I've never seen it. There's just no middle ground on him. Lots of ground, lots of middle, but no middle ground.
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  18. #538
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Well, he's done it. And Liz has agreed to it.
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  19. #539
    Frenzied Member PlausiblyDamp's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post
    Well, he's done it. And Liz has agreed to it.
    Good to know that "taking back control" means a PM voted in by less than 0.2% (I have seen figures as low as 0.13%) of the population using parliamentary tricks to bypass any form of opposition or scrutiny of his plans (or lack of them really).

    Constant leaks of government reports are classed as "project fear" by the government that actually produced the reports, refusal to release proper information regarding no deal, refusal to properly finance no deal, refusal to even attempt to tell the truth with Boris still making anti-EU rubbish up, pound slumping, EU and the US now threatening to not strike a trade deal with us. I don't remember any of this being in the original plan....

  20. #540
    Fanatic Member 2kaud's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Talk about the 'Night Of The Long Knives'. That hasn't got a look in on what happened last night! 21 Tory MPs de-selected from the Tory Party for voting against their own government. Most of them were sacked former ministers with a grudge. If it hadn't been for the ex-ministers, the government would have won the vote. What happened to supposed 'Tory Loyalty'?
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  21. #541
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    What happened to supposed 'Tory Loyalty'?
    Err 9 members of the current cabinet have defied the whip this year alone, Boris, Dominic Raab, Priti Patel, Grant Shapps, Theresa Villiers, Esther McVey, Amber Rudd, Jacob Rees-Mogg & Jo Johnson, so how they can complain now when it happens to them is the height of hypocrisy.

    Tory Loyalty what does that even mean

    Talk about the 'Night Of The Long Knives'
    What happened last night was inevitable once Boris took the path that he did, he never had the numbers in parliament to push through No Deal and once those ministers from his own party decided that they couldn't ignore the fact he was lying to them about seeking a deal the scene was set.
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  22. #542
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    Re: No Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by 2kaud View Post
    Talk about the 'Night Of The Long Knives'. That hasn't got a look in on what happened last night! 21 Tory MPs de-selected from the Tory Party for voting against their own government. Most of them were sacked former ministers with a grudge. If it hadn't been for the ex-ministers, the government would have won the vote. What happened to supposed 'Tory Loyalty'?
    I suppose a lot of them are putting the country ahead of party politics...

  23. #543
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    This has been most impressive. One EU diplomat seemed to be totally baffled, which makes me feel a bit better. I see that there is now some kind of vote against a snap election, so what does that mean? The election would be hard to place before the deadline, the vote against the no-deal went through, whatever that means in practice. I just can't say that I have any clear idea as to what the options even are at this point. Are they telling Boris to tie a Brexit anchor around his neck and jump off London Bridge?

    I'll be spending tomorrow morning talking to a bunch of kids about rotting salmon. Can you folks please agree to not burn your country down until I get back to watch?

    On a lighter note, I was asked a question that totally stumped me: "Is that dead salmon alive?"

    I just couldn't think of an answer. It kind of seems like a metaphor for Brexit, though.
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    Re: No Deal

    The whole things gone completely CrazySauce.

    I think a large part of what you're seeing is down to us running a system based on convention rather than constitution and our MPs have been playing a game of chicken with those conventions for the last 3 years. John Bercow openly declaring his partisanship and the remain MPs taking control of the agenda under Theresa May were both very significant divergences from convention by the Remain camp. I'm trying to think of any the Leave camp had played before last week and can't (though there probably are some I'm forgetting).

    But BoJo went nuclear when he prorogued parliament in the way he did. That was in a different league to past remain divergences. Even then, I think he might have been able to get away with it if he hadn't tried to pretend it was only to debate the Queens Speech. If he'd just said "this is about forcing the 31st Oct deadline through come what may" he could have pitched himself as a champion of the people fighting for the will of the people in the face of a treacherous parliament. By pretending it was anything other than that he threw away any credibility he had and came across as dishonest - which was just a confirmation for many.

    Then he compounded that by threatening to remove the whip from anyone who voted against him. There was always going to be a significant chance of him losing that vote, no matter what he did, and a defeat was almost certainly going to resolve itself to an election. Can't help thinking that firing 21 of your MPs just before an election isn't exactly smart. Couple that with the voluntary defections we're seeing and he's sunk.

    When you're telling the Father of the House and Churchill's grandson that they're not proper Tories, surely you've got to look in the mirror and wonder if your still heading in the direction you intended. And the spectacle of him having his casual racism so vehemently called out must have really felt like the final kick in the fork.

    Can you folks please agree to not burn your country down until I get back to watch?
    No.

    It kind of seems like a metaphor for Brexit, though.
    Brexit's not a salmon, it's a horse. And we're going to continue to flog it until January... and beyond.
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  25. #545
    Fanatic Member 2kaud's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    And we're going to continue to flog it until January... and beyond.
    Not necessarily. There may be a Brexit saviour in the form of the current President of The Council of the EU (Finland) who's said to have remarked that there's little point now negotiating with UK over Brexit as any deal won't pass through Parliament and that it would be better if the UK now just left. It only takes one vote from the 27 to defeat a request from the UK for a Brexit extension...
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  26. #546
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Not necessarily. There may be a Brexit saviour in the form of the current President of The Council of the EU (Finland) who's said to have remarked that there's little point now negotiating with UK over Brexit as any deal won't pass through Parliament and that it would be better if the UK now just left. It only takes one vote from the 27 to defeat a request from the UK for a Brexit extension...
    I hope your not pinning your hopes on the finish council president guy, like they are going to go against the other 27 countries? as that is definitely not going to happen.

    The only way we leave now without a deal is if Boris is able to somehow force and election and not only win but win by some margin which enables him to have the numbers to force it through. Thats not going to happen by October now though, which will hurt Boris in any election as Nigel will be back hard on the campaign trail stealing his votes.

    I see that there is now some kind of vote against a snap election, so what does that mean?
    We now have 5 year fixed term parliaments in the UK but if enough MP's vote to bring down Parliament or there is a successful vote of no confidence in the government then an election can be called early.

    Boris once he lost control of Parliament and had his hands tied in passing legislation forcing him to seek an Brexit extension, tried to call a snap election but he doesn't have the number to call one himself he needs Corbyn & Labour to agree, and Corbyn wont until the Legislation they are just passing forcing a brexit extension is passed into law.
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    Re: No Deal

    I hope your not pinning your hopes on the finish council president guy
    I agree that the EU will continue to take a united position but I do think the momentum is increasingly in the direction of them refusing an extension. I think they'll offer the next one and maybe one or two after that but more and more of the European Heads of State are expressing the same sentiments as Macron - i.e. we're not giving you extensions just so you can squabble. Sooner or later they're just going to refuse and it will be revoke or no deal.
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    Re: No Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post
    I agree that the EU will continue to take a united position but I do think the momentum is increasingly in the direction of them refusing an extension. I think they'll offer the next one and maybe one or two after that but more and more of the European Heads of State are expressing the same sentiments as Macron - i.e. we're not giving you extensions just so you can squabble. Sooner or later they're just going to refuse and it will be revoke or no deal.
    The EU can't allow themselves to be cast as the villains in all of this so I imagine they will allow at least another extension or two in the hope we sort things out and decide on what we want while also coming up with realistic proposals regarding the backstop or a replacement for it. Sooner or later though they will obviously just give up on the UK if we don't make progress. The current level of political squabbling and point scoring isn't getting us any further towards a deal. Boris is pushing for a damaging no deal (well damaging for the country and most of the inhabitants, not so damaging for multi-millionaire politicians etc who can continue to avoid tax) by simply not making any realistic attempt to negotiate with the EU while still also spouting his lies about EU rules that simply don't exist but serve to alienate the EU even more.

  29. #549
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Holy <PausiblyDamp's Avatar> Batman, Jo Johnson (Boris's brother) just quit. Shades of Miliband.
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    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    And the LibDems are picking up Labour defectors too.

    At this rate we're going to get elected
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  31. #551
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    At this rate we're going to get elected
    That was my line
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  32. #552
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    Re: No Deal

    You can light the fires, I have the fixin's for the s'mores.

    My girlfriend suggested that Boris might have avoided this had he not attempted to suspend parliament. That's a pretty astute assessment. Hornet nests can be nasty, but they are FAR nastier after you kick them. They might have slept through the no deal until he tried to kick them aside. That sure woke them up, though.
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  33. #553
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Boris might have avoided this had he not attempted to suspend parliament.
    He'd have avoided a lot of the noise from the last week but that wouldn't have avoided the vote to force him to ask for an extension, which was the whole point of the prorogation. There's no way Remain would have slept through the deadline, they'd set their alarm clocks for the 23 October. Boris just woke them up early.

    At this point, I honestly believe that this will not end until the EU just gives up and throws us out.

    Parliament collectively is never going to approve either Revoke or No Deal and I don't believe the EU is ever going to offer us a deal that would get through either. Additionally, Parliament has managed to managed to assert supremacy over Government twice, even controlling the agenda, and that precedent will carry forward. So there's no way a "strong leader" on either side of the debate can railroad an option through. So from here on we are going to ask for extension after extension with no end.
    Last edited by FunkyDexter; Sep 6th, 2019 at 02:12 AM.
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  34. #554
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    At this point, I honestly believe that this will not end until the EU just gives up and throws us out.
    The EU are going to let us decide how to fix our own mess, they are not going to do this for us.

    Parliament collectively is never going to approve either Revoke or No Deal and I don't believe the EU is ever going to offer us a deal that would get through either.
    The current parliament yes, but if the numbers change after an election then that could change.

    For example if your Lib Dem's where to get into power most likely in a coalition with Labour (lets be honest), then it is highly likely we will have another referendum to settle the matter, and as in that situation the left will be in charge then the choices will be some form of deal or remain.

    The alternative is Boris and the Brexit party get enough votes between them and form a coalition to the right and force through a no deal.

    When we do have a new election (and we will soon) someone will have to win, and the Conservatives wont be split like they are now as all the remainers will have been kicked out of the party, what will be interesting is how many of them will stand as an independent or something else & how that effects there votes particularly in Con/Lib Dem marginals.
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  35. #555
    Fanatic Member 2kaud's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    someone will have to win
    We could end up as we are now - with another hung parliament with nether side having enough votes to get anything other than a mythical deal with the EU through Parliament. IMO the EU now won't agree to a deal that would pass Parliament (even a new Parliament) - and Parliament won't agree to a deal that passes the EU.

    The EU are going to let us decide how to fix our own mess, they are not going to do this for us.
    Unless there is a convincing win for one side with a good majority to either force remain or force no-deal, I'm now not convinced we can.
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  36. #556
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    Re: No Deal

    The current parliament yes, but if the numbers change after an election then that could change.
    Without some seriously tactical voting the numbers won't change. the country is every bit as divided as it was 3 years ago. It's a straight 50/50 split with maybe a couple of points drift one way or 'tother depending on which poll you're looking at. A GE is going to give us a coalition (or confidence and supply) with a tiny majority that won't be sufficient to drive anything through.

    with Labour (lets be honest)
    Hey, David told me to go home and prepare for government and I still believe in him
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  37. #557
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    We could end up as we are now - with another hung parliament with nether side having enough votes
    The reason we have a hung parliament now is due to the fact that the Conservative party is split, i can guarantee you right now that all conservative candidates for the next election will be prepared to follow through with No Deal there will be no dissenters, they will be purged from the candidates list. If the Conservatives get back into power for example with the Brexit Party then they will have the numbers to force a No Deal.

    It will be the same on the other side, all Labour candidates will be expected to sign up to Corbyn's attempt to strike a new deal and put that back to the people in a referendum, with the Lib Dem's they all want a referendum.

    The battle lines will be clearly drawn at the next election, No Deal or a Referendum who ever can form a government will be able to carry out there brexit manifesto's
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  38. #558
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    Re: No Deal

    a tiny majority that won't be sufficient to drive anything through
    I dont think that is true, any sort of majority for either side will be enough, Current Labour leavers of which there are about 20 ish i believe will be talked to pre election and told to follow the manifesto or not stand. This might see anywhere between 5 or 10 not stand for Labour at the next election. (ie like Kate Hoey who is already standing down at the next election and will be replaced by someone who tows the party line).

    The purge will happen on both sides
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  39. #559
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    Re: No Deal

    The purge will happen on both sides
    Wow, you reckon things have got that bad:-
    Name:  Purge.PNG
Views: 46
Size:  377.5 KB
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  40. #560
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Wow, you reckon things have got that bad:-
    hehe, either that or maybe this to resolve things

    Name:  br.jpg
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