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Thread: No Deal

  1. #481
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    If a no confidence motion is successful parliament could then go back to Brussels and ask for an extension in order to hold a GE
    I think you're chicken is preceding your egg. Parliament cannot request an extension, that power resides with government: "From a legal perspective, Article 50 can only be extended if the UK government submits an official request to the European Council. ".

    So, for a vote of no confidence to lead to an extension, the sitting government (i.e. Boris) would have to have to request the extension before dissolving.
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  2. #482
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    Re: No Deal

    I think you're chicken is preceding your egg.
    Ok so i probably worded that wrong saying parliament, and it does get a lot more difficult if they try and do it that late, but its possible in that a temporary government of national unity could be formed before it was then dissolved and a general election was called.

    It would be much less messy to do it earlier of course.
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  3. #483
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    Re: No Deal

    would have to have to request the extension before dissolving
    The government can request the EU to grant an extension even after Parliament has been dissolved as the request doesn't involve Parliament.

    Also, the UK government stays in power all through a GE and until they are formally replaced afterwards. The PM is in power until he/she formally resigns during an audience with the Queen - and recommends their successor (with which the Queen usually acquiesces - but doesn't have to). If the result of a GE is another 'hung parliament' then until a new PM can form a coalition to obtain a majority in parliament, the existing government stays in power. The time taken to form a coalition is likely to be at least several days - possibly a couple of weeks. The last Tory-Liberal coalition took 5 days. Even once a new PM has taken office following an audience with the Queen, the existing ministers stay in place until replaced by the new PM - and the Queen has agreed the appointments. So for a new government to request to the EU an extension, not only has the GE to be before 31 Oct, but the new PM has to have been appointed as well. Also, the EU needs a certain time to 'process' the request as every one of the 27 EU member states has to agree to any extension - and the length of the extension. So for a new UK government to request an extension on say 30 October isn't going to do it. Also, of course, there is no guarantee that the EU will grant another extension. France, in particular, is quite against this (and was the last time - but got 'talked around' by other EU members).
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  4. #484
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    Re: No Deal

    a temporary government of national unity could be formed
    Yes, this could be done in the 14 days following a loss of a confidence vote in Parliament. That is part of the purpose of these 14 days to allow another government to be formed without a GE. However, any new government (including one of national unity) has to be able to command a majority in Parliament. If they can't then it's a GE.
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  5. #485
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    Re: No Deal

    Also, the UK government stays in power all through a GE and until they are formally replaced afterwards.
    Yeah, that's my point. The power to request the extension would reside with the current Government, not Parliament, right up until the moment there's a new Government, and that's after a GE.

    I hadn't considered a Government of National Unity. I guess that's possible but I suspect it's unlikely. It wold require Tories, Labour, SNP and Lib Dems to all form a coalition together. There's too many issues with that to count.
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    Re: No Deal

    I hadn't considered a Government of National Unity. I guess that's possible but I suspect it's unlikely. It wold require Tories, Labour, SNP and Lib Dems to all form a coalition together. There's too many issues with that to count.
    Yeah i agree it wouldn't be easy, and the only way it would work would be a temporary arrangement in order to ask for an extension.

    You would hope that one way or another it would be settled before then and we would know whether we were crashing out or calling an election without having to wait until the last possible minute. Although the uncertainty has kept this thread alive well beyond what could be expected
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  7. #487
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    Re: No Deal

    You can just imagine the almighty row when someone asked, "Right, who's going to lead this thing?"
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  8. #488
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    Re: No Deal

    Also, of course, there is no guarantee that the EU will grant another extension. France, in particular, is quite against this (and was the last time - but got 'talked around' by other EU members).
    Its all ifs and buts, at this stage buuuuut if.....

    the extension is for a GE or another Referendum, the EU including France have been clear they would allow it, they dont want to keep extending for no defined reason but even then that doesn't mean they wouldn't.
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  9. #489
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    Re: No Deal

    I've seen it said that the last realistic date to ask the EU for an extension is 17 Oct when there is an EU summit. Not sure if this is true, but if the UK asks later then the EU will have to call an emergency summit to deal with any request.
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    Re: No Deal

    Personally my bet's on either a no deal crash out or a moderate shift in position from the EU (and I'm not particularly optimistic for the latter).

    I can imagine a vote of no confidence being called but I can't see a coalition being formed across the house. Even the VONC is a long ask and expecting the likes of JC to jump into bed with Tories is pretty much inconceivable. Even if the agreed to a coalition I just couldn't see them working out the details and actually implementing it in the timescale.

    So, yeah, that looks horribly like a cliff edge coming toward us.
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  11. #491
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    Re: No Deal

    Personally my bet's on either a no deal crash out or a moderate shift in position from the EU (and I'm not particularly optimistic for the latter).
    My bets on either No Deal or a General Election, and i am slightly leaning towards a GE but not with great confidence right now, it may take some Tories to vote down there own government and while i dont doubt there are some that would to avoid a No Deal, the timing is important and the longer they leave it the likelier No Deal is.
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  12. #492
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    Re: No Deal

    Well, the Tories lost Brecon and Radnorshire which makes no confidence votes etc. slightly more likely but still far from certain.

    The pundits are starting to pick it over and whether you see it as a Remain or a Exit victory pretty much depends on which newspaper you read. It was a stonking great swing for the Lib Dems and a near total collapse for Labour. Pro Brexit parties combined took a shade over 50% while Anti Brexit took a shade under 49% (I don't know the Monster Raving Looney Parties position) so you could argue it was a Brexit win but given that the Tories previously had an 8000 majority that seems disingenuous.

    Overall, I reckon I'd call it a win for Remain, given the starting positions. But not a killer blow.
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  13. #493
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    Re: No Deal

    Well, the Tories lost Brecon and Radnorshire which makes no confidence votes etc. slightly more likely but still far from certain.
    Overall, I reckon I'd call it a win for Remain, given the starting positions. But not a killer blow.
    It is interesting as it reduces Boris's majority to 1, and Philip Lee (Tory MP) did an interview the other day where he said he was going to use the summer to reflect and consider his position as he no longer recognized the Conservative party as the one he joined. All it would take now is for someone like him to defect to the Lib Dems, and Boris has no majority at all and in normal times that would automatically trigger a GE as his government could get no business done.

    We are not in normal times though and really the only business Boris wants to get done is Brexit and so it not a guarantee however it will put a huge amount of pressure on him as the only route he will have left for a No Deal would be to prorogue parliament which in itself many MP's would be very unhappy with.
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  14. #494
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    Re: No Deal

    All that by-election result really shows is that a) Labour is in a bad way (as we know) and b) until Brexit is delivered the Tories are going to haemorrhage votes to the Brexit party and cannot win a GE - and may not even end up as the biggest party. It was also ever so slightly unreal as the Tory candidate had been recalled - causing the by-election in the first place - and then stood in the election! IMO the Tories would have done better with a different candidate.
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    Re: No Deal

    It was also ever so slightly unreal as the Tory candidate had been recalled - causing the by-election in the first place - and then stood in the election! IMO the Tories would have done better with a different candidate.
    Agreed. The decision to re-run Davies was bizarre.

    ...and Boris has no majority at all...
    Agree with this too. If he loses another MP it probably will result in a GE by one means or another. Thing is, I still think the most likely outcome of that is a Tory victory backed by the Brexit Party. It's not a happy thought that that would mean Farage would almost certainly hold some sort of cabinet position (most likely deputy PM) <shudder>.
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  16. #496
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    Re: No Deal

    If the Tories and the Brexit Party form some sort of alliance for a GE before Brexit, then a Tory/Brexit victory is possible. Look what happened when Liberals/Change/Greens et al formed an alliance for the by-election - the Liberals won as the remain vote wasn't split (forget Labour). However, although Farage has suggested an alliance, BJ has so far ruled it out. If Brexit is done one way or another before a GE then the Brexit Party disappears. If a GE is before 31 Oct - or after and we're still in the EU because of another extension - or we're still in some sort of Customs Union etc with no definite end-date, then the Brexit Party will still be a serious threat to the Tories. An alliance Tory/Brexit would probably loose the Tories some votes to Change/Liberals but would probably still ensure a Tory/Brexit victory. The big unknown over this, of course, is Labour. If they ditch Corbyn and elect a more main-stream leader, then really all bets would be off. If BJ is thinking about a GE his best chance of a Tory (or Tory/Brexit) victory is with Corbyn still as Labour leader. If we've out on 31 Oct, I wouldn't bet against a November election.
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  17. #497
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    Re: No Deal

    If the Tories and the Brexit Party form some sort of alliance for a GE
    Just to be clear, I'm not suggesting that they'd form an alliance prior to a GE (they might but I'm not expecting it, both stand to lose too much face), I'm suggesting they'd form a coalition after the election results in a hung parliament. I honestly don't see any party in the field at the moment that stands any chance of gaining an outright majority.

    If they ditch Corbyn and elect a more main-stream leader
    They should. They really, really should. But the party rules won't let them. Once they opened up the party leadership election to all members... any members, momentum et al staged a coup. For the party to shift back to the centre would require the party to haemorrhage members from the left in massive numbers. If they canned Corbyn right now they would simply re-elect Corbyn mark 2.
    Last edited by FunkyDexter; Aug 2nd, 2019 at 05:53 AM.
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  18. #498
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    Re: No Deal

    Without a Tory/Brexit pre GE deal, I don't think that an alliance of Tory/Brexit/DUP after a GE will have a parliament majority. IMO the only way for a Tory/Brexit majority in a GE is for a pact whereby Tory/Brexit prospective members don't stand for the same seat where one of them has a possible chance of winning the seat. But BJ so far has ruled this out. If he is forced into a snap GE before Brexit is done, I wouldn't bet against him going back on this and doing some sort of pre GE deal with The Brexit Party.
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  19. #499
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    Re: No Deal

    They should. They really, really should. But the party rules won't let them. Once they opened up the party leadership election to all members... any members, momentum et al staged a coup. For the party to shift back to the centre would require the party to haemorrhage members from the left in massive numbers. If they canned Corbyn right now they would simply re-elect Corbyn mark 2.
    Oh your damn right they should, but they wont because Corbyn truly believes he can win as do his advisers.

    I am less certain about your second statement, i dont think they need to shift right back to the center, i was reasonably happy that they moved a bit to the left they have just gone to far and in Corbyn they have one of the old guard left proper old school socialist in charge and i feel him and his close advisers are the big problem. If he goes then Milne & Karie Murphy will also go.

    While its undoubted that the membership shifted over to the left, you shouldn't assume that it will always remain exactly as it is, not that i think that it will suddenly shift to the center but they could potentially shift behind someone like Thornberry.

    The majority of the Labour membership are Remain and its a big issue and it more than possible if there is a new election for a leader a pro-remain candidate could win even if we have already left the EU.
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  20. #500
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    Re: No Deal

    The EU and the socialist left-wing have one thing in common - they both believe that the answer to their 'not winning' is more of the same. The EU believe 'more EU' is the answer to EU scepticism and the socialist left believe they will win power by being even more left-wing. Under current Labour election rules, I don't see a Labour 'moderate' (leftist of centre) winning a leader ballot. Momentum et al seem too entranced into the Labour membership for this is happen.
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  21. #501
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    Re: No Deal

    The EU and the socialist left-wing have one thing in common - they both believe that the answer to their 'not winning' is more of the same.
    Hmmm slightly different the EU didn't participate in a vote which they lost, so i dont see what they didn't win.

    I don't see a Labour 'moderate' (leftist of centre) winning a leader ballot. Momentum et al seem too entranced into the Labour membership for this is happen.
    Just as Labour has been taken over by the left of there party so has the Conservative party been taken over by the right of there's, its interesting that one has followed the other.

    If Corbyn loses again he wont be able to stay on, of course he will try and hand pick his successor to some extent but politics often doesn't work like that.

    Also politics works in cycles, if we didn't have brexit sitting in front of us as the most divisive issue of our time i would be less worried, much like the Tories took 10 years to recover from Major and choose someone as leader who was electable, eventually Labour will choose someone electable.

    However we are not living in normal times and by the time Labour get round to doing so events may have passed them by if they are not careful.
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  22. #502
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    Re: No Deal

    i dont think they need to shift right back to the center
    Agreed and my clumsy wording. I meant they needed to shift toward the centre rather than all the way to it.

    While its undoubted that the membership shifted over to the left, you shouldn't assume that it will always remain exactly as it is
    Again, agreed. I think an awful lot of the new membership aren't old enough not to remember the labour governments of the seventies (or the oppositions of the 80s) and don't really know what the hard left represents. I also think they're very savvy along with their idealism (they're not the na´ve pups us older folks like to portray them as) and would adopt a more moderate labour party if they felt it could actually come to power and bring many of those ideals to reality.

    Trouble is, back in 2015, none of the other leaders really stood out so Corbyn managed to carry it as a populist because he could leverage the hard left and young idealists. I feel like the others didn't really see the hard left coming. In fact, wasn't Andy Burnham one of the people who nominated Corbyn, despite running himself? Or am I miss-remembering that? Shame because I actually really liked Burnham as a candidate.

    its interesting that one has followed the other.
    Yeah, we're polarising and it's not a good thing, either on the left or the right. I'm not as pessimistic about Bojo as many are. He's actually pretty liberal for a Tory (if you ignore the casual racism) and he made a pretty good mayor. He's a terrible "detail" leader but a very good "figurehead" one. If he can delegate the detail stuff out to the civil service and the government departments he could do alright... assuming he gets a chance beyond the whole Brexit debacle. Or he could be a complete disaster… who knows with Boris. I wouldn't say I'm cautiously optimistic but I am, perhaps, cautiously not bloody terrified.

    If Corbyn loses again he wont be able to stay on, of course he will try and hand pick his successor to some extent but politics often doesn't work like that.
    Oh I think he could. The parliamentary party might pass a no confidence motion (they've hated him since the start) but the membership will simply elect him right back in again. Even if they don't, they'll elect a carbon copy of him. Probably John Macdonald.
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  23. #503
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    Re: No Deal

    I'm not as pessimistic about Bojo as many are. He's actually pretty liberal for a Tory (if you ignore the casual racism) and he made a pretty good mayor. He's a terrible "detail" leader but a very good "figurehead" one. If he can delegate the detail stuff out to the civil service and the government departments he could do alright... assuming he gets a chance beyond the whole Brexit debacle. Or he could be a complete disaster… who knows with Boris. I wouldn't say I'm cautiously optimistic but I am, perhaps, cautiously not bloody terrified.
    Boris much like Trump in fact has drifted further and further to the right as a means to get into power in many ways. I am not convinced that Boris is that liberal now, if he ever was
    and the bigger issue i have with him is if you listen to those who have worked with him they paint a fairly damning picture of his personality, and we are talking about other Conservative MP's here and the former editor of the Telegraph.

    Oh I think he could. The parliamentary party might pass a no confidence motion (they've hated him since the start) but the membership will simply elect him right back in again. Even if they don't, they'll elect a carbon copy of him. Probably John Macdonald.
    I was more talking about if he loses another General Election, and i dont think there is another carbon copy of him even MacDonald as he for instance has been fairly vocally remain, you cant imagine him keeping Milne & Murphy as advisers.
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    Re: No Deal

    Boris much like Trump in fact has drifted further and further to the right...
    Has he really though? Set aside Brexit (which is an opportunistic rather than a Left/Right thing) and I can't think of anything much he's taken a position on between the end of his Mayorship up until the beginning of his campaign for PM. His campaign for PM is really the only thing I can think of to judge him on and it's been a mixed bag: tax cuts for the rich alongside an end to austerity and major public spending.

    When I look at Boris what I see is an opportunistic centre right politician with mildly liberal tendancies - with opportunism being the most significant part of that mix.

    I don't like that opportunism but I don't greatly fear it either. Just now it's leading him to appease the ERG and I understand the problems with that, but if and when Brexit is done, where would it lead him then. I suspect you'd see far more centrist policies from him as he tries to win the middle ground.
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    Re: No Deal

    Has he really though?
    His campaign for PM is really the only thing I can think of to judge him on and it's been a mixed bag: tax cuts for the rich alongside an end to austerity and major public spending.
    hmm, there is plenty of other things to judge him on, his current cabinet for one. I agree he is not a true right winger as say Dominic Raab, he has a fairly mixed voting record, but he really do believe that he is drifting that way, time will tell i suppose.

    His recent spending announcements are almost like he gearing up for an election or the possibility of one.
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    Re: No Deal

    His recent spending announcements are almost like he gearing up for an election or the possibility of one.
    Yeah, that's very true.

    The talking heads on Newsnight last night were basically saying he was actually hoping that Corbyn would call for a vote of no confidence on the basis that it gives him great rhetoric to fight an election on.
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    Re: No Deal

    The talking heads on Newsnight last night were basically saying he was actually hoping that Corbyn would call for a vote of no confidence on the basis that it gives him great rhetoric to fight an election on.
    Well that's very likely isn't it, so i dont think he has to hope to hard. Nothing will happen until September now and then likely it will all kick off and we will get to find out No Deal or err not No Deal. Bring back Noel Edmonds !!!
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  28. #508
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    Re: No Deal

    The point was that Boris doesn't want to call an election but does (or might) want to have one forced upon him. It gives him the "look at those elitist politicians trying to undermine the will of the public" card to play. That will be a powerful card.

    Another thing to consider is that Corbyn, for all the rhetoric, does not want a general election. Labour did very well at the last election but has been haemorrhaging support since. They actually stand to lose a lot of ground to the independents in an election.

    However, the main reason for that haemorrhage has, of course, been his failure to really get behind remain. So to stop that continuing he really needs to be seen to call the no confidence vote, even though he'd rather not. And, of course, there's a huge question over whether Corbyn wants to remain at all. He's saying he does but he's ben anti EU his entire career.

    So we're in the weird position where Corbyn may be forced to call no confidence vote that he privately doesn't want but Boris privately does. And each will be loudly declaring the opposite in a monumental display of double speak.

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    Re: No Deal

    The point was that Boris doesn't want to call an election but does (or might) want to have one forced upon him.
    Fair point

    Another thing to consider is that Corbyn, for all the rhetoric, does not want a general election.
    Hmm i am not convinced, i think that Corbyn would relish a GE he loves campaigning, it is where he thinks he is best and he will think he can beat Boris.

    They actually stand to lose a lot of ground to the independents in an election.
    If there is another election i expect both main parties to lose support the question is by how much and which one gets the most votes and so gets first stab at forming a government and also if there enough seats on right or left to have a workable majority even if they wanted to run as a minority government.

    However, the main reason for that haemorrhage has, of course, been his failure to really get behind remain. So to stop that continuing he really needs to be seen to call the no confidence vote, even though he'd rather not. And, of course, there's a huge question over whether Corbyn wants to remain at all. He's saying he does but he's been anti EU his entire career.
    Agreed it is the big issue for Labour and unless the can get some clarity in an election campaign around it it will hit them and they will lose votes for it. Corbyn i believe could be won over to a position to campaign for remain in a "Stop Boris" election campaign, but Seamus Milne & Karie Murphy in particular are dead set against it and have a fair amount of influence on Labours position.
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  30. #510
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    Re: No Deal

    I don't altogether 'get' factions of the left wanting to stay in the EU. Much of what they want to do if in power would be blocked by EU regulations/directives (eg big nationalization of railways etc). They wouldn't have the free hand to do what they wanted. If we left the EU, then they would. From the left, Corbyn's instincts to leave the EU so that they can pursue the economic policies the left want is probably right - he's been against the EU all his life. But why the shadow chancellor wants to remain - with his stated economic policies- I don't understand.
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  31. #511
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    I don't altogether 'get' factions of the left wanting to stay in the EU. Much of what they want to do if in power would be blocked by EU regulations/directives (eg big nationalization of railways etc). They wouldn't have the free hand to do what they wanted. If we left the EU, then they would. From the left, Corbyn's instincts to leave the EU so that they can pursue the economic policies the left want is probably right - he's been against the EU all his life. But why the shadow chancellor wants to remain - with his stated economic policies- I don't understand.
    Well it's because the idea that you cant nationalise the railways while a member of the EU is just nonsense. Both France & Germany have nationalised Railway companies, it just not that unusual to have nationalised industries inside the EU, EDF for instance is the French National Energy provider.

    Even re-nationalization is ok within EU laws. The State aid laws are much more about not distorting competition by offering stat aid to private companies (which Countries certainly used to a lot more if major airlines for instance were in trouble).

    Also if you look at what happened with the banks after 2008 where we flooded them with state capital you can see that these rules are flexible if the need is there.

    Corbyn's biggest problem with the EU is he doesn't think it is very socialist.
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  32. #512
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    Re: No Deal

    Everybody wants out:


  33. #513
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    Re: No Deal

    Corbyn's biggest problem with the EU is he doesn't think it is very socialist
    It's one of the few things he's right about

    I'd say there's a rough split where people who joined the Labour Party prior to Tony Blair and New Labour are against it, those who joined it since New Labour are for it. It's not an exact correlation but I feel there's a rough one there.

    It creates a weird dichotomy because the new membership rules brought a bunch of new members who are pro EU and a new leadership who are anti.

    Everybody wants out
    He actually flew into the UK, not out. I assume he was tempted by our superior cheese.
    Last edited by FunkyDexter; Aug 9th, 2019 at 05:52 AM.
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  34. #514
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    Re: No Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post
    He actually flew into the UK, not out. I assume he was tempted by our superior cheese.
    Out of the EU hoping for refuge post-Brexit. I was shooting for irony there but I clearly missed.

  35. #515
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Gotta check yer shootin' ironies more reglar, pardner!
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  36. #516
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    Re: No Deal

    Poor guy missed an opportunity there. He should have been wearing a yellow vest.

  37. #517
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    Re: No Deal

    He actually flew into the UK, not out. I assume he was tempted by our superior cheese.
    Its clearly our Wine that he has come for or possibly our bread & croissants
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  38. #518
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    I think the French are pretty sick of our whine by now
    You can depend upon the Americans to do the right thing. But only after they have exhausted every other possibility - Winston Churchill

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  39. #519
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    Re: No Deal

    Groan
    All advice is offered in good faith only. You are ultimately responsible for the effects of your programs and the integrity of the machines they run on. Anything I post, code snippets, advice, etc is licensed as Public Domain https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/

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  40. #520
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    Re: No Deal

    Oh good. I go away for three weeks and nothing has changed. Not a bloody thing!!

    So, what's the next deadline?

    My vote is on crashing out while fighting with one another all the way to the end....and well beyond. That'll make it hard to figure out whether crashing out is responsible for the resulting problems, or not.
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