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Thread: No Deal

  1. #401
    Fanatic Member 2kaud's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    I think you have your numbers wrong there 2kaud at the EU election just gone the numbers where
    The numbers I gave were from the Peterborough by-election from the BBC web site https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48532869
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  2. #402
    Fanatic Member 2kaud's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Well, we all now know why Brexit failed under PM May - she was a fifth columnist as per my post #218! It's now emerged that May voted for the softest brexit candidate Rory Stewart and apparently has pledged to help him prevent 'at all costs' a no-deal Brexit. No wonder we didn't get a good Brexit deal with the EU under her premiership. It's also being said that she's committing billions of pounds extra to public services to 'derail' her successor as PM who'll have to find the money for her promises - and so won't be able to provide money for tax cuts as some candidates are promising. She's trying to bind the hands of her successor - IMO it shouldn't be allowed!
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  3. #403
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    IMO business as usual.
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  4. #404
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    No wonder we didn't get a good Brexit deal with the EU under her premiership.
    We didn't get a good brexit deal because there isn't one to be had. There is nothing more the EU can offer us that is not a customs union that would be beneficial to them. The idea that there was a better deal to be had is a fallacy and ignores all the evidence.

    It amazes me how many people seem to think that the main reason we did not get a good deal is we didn't threaten our negotiating partner enough.


    It's also being said that she's committing billions of pounds extra to public services to 'derail' her successor as PM who'll have to find the money for her promises - and so won't be able to provide money for tax cuts as some candidates are promising. She's trying to bind the hands of her successor - IMO it shouldn't be allowed
    They wont be bound by it, Those promises she is trying to commit the party are not new they are just an escalation of previous ones which were not met. When they were not met nothing happened !!
    Last edited by NeedSomeAnswers; Jun 17th, 2019 at 03:32 AM.
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  5. #405
    Frenzied Member PlausiblyDamp's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by 2kaud View Post
    She's trying to bind the hands of her successor - IMO it shouldn't be allowed!
    Wasn't that pretty much what Cameron did though - held a referendum and bogged off after the result leaving his replacement pretty much stuck with implementing the result.

  6. #406
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Called it back in post 249

    I know I'm being a bit smug there but I do think this sort of thinking can resolve so many of the issues we've got with Irish borders. But it does require both sides to start negotiating in good faith instead of using Ireland as a bargaining chip.
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  7. #407
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    I know I'm being a bit smug there but I do think this sort of thinking can resolve so many of the issues we've got with Irish borders.
    I am not sure why your being smug, this report is just rehashing ideas which have already been presented its says;

    The rules in the zone would remain closely aligned with the EU to minimise the prospect that goods would have to be checked when entering the continental EU.
    so close regulatory alignment which is something we have heard about many times, it also says;

    if the UK sought to diverge from EU rules then Ireland could revert to the EU regulatory area.
    So it spells out the first of the EU's objection to close regulatory alignment, that fact that the UK could at any point just choose to diverge

    The 2nd thing that sentence says is something that the UK & Northern Ireland would never accept in any agreement and that it that Northern Ireland could in effect remain part of a European customs union while the rest of the UK diverged. (and if you didn't think it said that i suggest you read it again )

    also further to that it says;

    The proposal is likely to face some major hurdles and the commission acknowledges it would be difficult to negotiate.

    It would require the EU to accept UK standards as equivalent to EU standards.
    This is another major issue, the UK wants to be able to negotiate its own trade deals with the likes of the US post-brexit, and the US for example has stated that it wants the UK to open up its agriculture market by lowering food standard for US imports.

    If the UK were to accept even one lowering of food standards during a trade deal then they would no longer be closely aligned they would be diverging and then your close alignment agreement is not worth the paper it is written on.
    Last edited by NeedSomeAnswers; Jun 24th, 2019 at 08:17 AM.
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  8. #408
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    It also says "In that scenario, Stormont would then have a vote on whether it wanted to remain aligned with Ireland - which would mean new checks on goods coming into NI from the rest of the UK." In other words, Stormont could decide not to remain aligned to the EU and the decision would be up to Stormont, not Westminster or the EU. To me that seems the right place for the decision to reside.

    And "Northern Ireland could in effect remain part of a European customs union while the rest of the UK diverged" only applies to food. Given that this situation already exists for livestock, extending it to food may not be as long an ask as you imply. It would not prevent the UK (and NI) diverging on any other goods or services.
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  9. #409
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    It also says "In that scenario, Stormont would then have a vote on whether it wanted to remain aligned with Ireland - which would mean new checks on goods coming into NI from the rest of the UK." In other words, Stormont could decide not to remain aligned to the EU and the decision would be up to Stormont, not Westminster or the EU. To me that seems the right place for the decision to reside.
    Yeah i read that bit but it would never work because what your asking Northern Ireland to sign up for is an agreement which as soon as the UK decides to diverge on food standards Northern Ireland has to decided whether its wants to be part of the EU (and we already no it doesn't want to remain if the UK leaves) or not, which is no decision at all.

    Your just trying to defer the problem to a later date not fix it

    And "Northern Ireland could in effect remain part of a European customs union while the rest of the UK diverged" only applies to food.
    Also if you think that the EU are at any point going to offer a customs union just for food your dreaming, why would they?

    I still come back to the point that i can see why alternative arrangements looks attractive from the UK side, but if i was an EU negotiator i see no advantages at all.

    The EU would be better off letting no deal happen and sitting back and waiting for the UK to come back cap in in hand asking for a trade deal. The EU would be in an even stronger negotiating position than they are in now.
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  10. #410
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    i can see why alternative arrangements looks attractive from the UK side,
    I wouldn't say that looks attractive, it simply looks like a reasonable compromise.

    and waiting for the UK to come back cap in in hand asking for a trade deal.
    Negotiations shouldn't be a win/lose scenario. You go looking for a compromise that's acceptable and minimises the cost to both sides. If we exit without a deal, the EU loses. We lose more, but the EU still loses. Which then begs the question, why would the EU not accept a reasonable compromise if it's in their own interests to do so. If the only answer you can give to that question is "to make an example of the UK", well than that pretty much proves what I've been saying about them the whole time.
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  11. #411
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    I wouldn't say that looks attractive, it simply looks like a reasonable compromise.
    If you believe in the EU project and therefore you believe in the 4 main tenants of the single market which the EU of course does, then it doesn't look like a reasonable compromise, It looks like an attempt to break up the EU's common market approach.

    Negotiations shouldn't be a win/lose scenario. You go looking for a compromise that's acceptable and minimises the cost to both sides. If we exit without a deal, the EU loses. We lose more, but the EU still loses. Which then begs the question, why would the EU not accept a reasonable compromise if it's in their own interests to do so. If the only answer you can give to that question is "to make an example of the UK", well than that pretty much proves what I've been saying about them the whole time.
    Again this is a misunderstanding of the EU's approach, they are not interested in punishing us, what we dont seem to have got our heads around yet is to them the common market is fundamental to the EU project and to risk breaking it up by giving a bespoke deal to the UK which allows us to still trade on the similar terms without having to obey any of the rules risks the whole project.

    It wouldn't minimize costs and risk for them they see it as fundamentally a terrible deal for the EU, worse than letting us leave with No Deal. They know that a No Deal would be bad for everyone, they also know that the alternative arrangement sought by the UK would be good for the UK but very bad for the EU as far as they see it.

    Negotiations shouldn't be a win/lose scenario.
    Agreed but any negotiations carried out between two nations or two parties are often not equal and depend on the relative strength of your negotiating position, we have not started form a position of strength which is one of the reasons why we are where we are.
    Last edited by NeedSomeAnswers; Jun 26th, 2019 at 02:48 AM. Reason: typo
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  12. #412
    Fanatic Member 2kaud's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    we have not started form a position of strength which one of the reasons why we are where we are.
    Yep!
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  13. #413
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    they are not interested in punishing us
    I didn't say punishing, I said making an example of. Partly I was trying avoiding emotive language but partly I was recognising there is a difference between the two. One is spiteful, the other is cold hearted pragmatism designed to instil fear in the other member states.

    Do the EU want to punish us? There may be a little of bit of that but not really. Not enough to be material anyway. Do they want to hold an implicit threat over the remaining member states? Hell yeah. And you've got to consider how much respect you can have for an organisation that thinks that way.

    Edit>to put it another way, this is an organisation willing to put a dogmatic adherence to a principle above the good of it's own members, in both financial and security terms.
    Last edited by FunkyDexter; Jun 26th, 2019 at 07:28 AM.
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  14. #414
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Do they want to hold an implicit threat over the remaining member states? Hell yeah. And you've got to consider how much respect you can have for an organisation that thinks that way.
    That would only be true if they believed that the common market approach was not the best way to bring about prosperity amongst there member states, as far as the EU sees it they are protecting themselves and there member states, your assigning motives that can only be inferred and seen through an anti EU lens.

    Not that i can tell you all the EU's motive are pure they are political after all and where there is politics there is murky goings on just that i dont think it is fair to judge there motive in such a way when we dont seem to be prepared to look at our selves in the same way.


    Edit>to put it another way, this is an organisation willing to put a dogmatic adherence to a principle above the good of it's own members, in both financial and security terms.
    Sound rather like both our current Government and the current Labour party, bound by dogma and ideals and not particularly interested in taking the difficult decisions to protect there own members and citizens from the colossal damage that a No Deal brexit would bring.
    Last edited by NeedSomeAnswers; Jun 27th, 2019 at 03:03 AM.
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  15. #415
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    I don't think the two positions are different. Whether you perceive this as a stick or a carrot hardly matters. After all, you can be beaten just as well by either one (though you probably can't EAT a stick, so only a carrot works in that regard).

    Whether the EU is doing this because "unity is good" or because "disunity is bad", is really just a matter of perspective. They are two sides of the same coin.
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