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Thread: No Deal

  1. #321
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    I heard mention today (on the radio show Wait, Wait, Don't Tell Me) that the royal birth was received with such excitement because it was nice to see that at least one Brit was able to successfully exit something. That line was met with much laughter.
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  2. #322
    Fanatic Member 2kaud's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Is this the calm before the storm expected 23 May?
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  3. #323
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    It has gone deathly silent over the last couple of weeks hasn't it. The only player who seems to be appearing in the media is Nasty Nigel (I slept through his Andrew Marr appearance but I gather it was pretty fraught).
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  4. #324
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Nothing is happening which is why its quiet, supposedly there are cross party talks going on but we all know they are a nonsense.

    As for 23rd MAY, even if as expected Nigel's Brexit party gets the most votes at the European election what does that Change exactly?

    We cant even use the Euro election to get a clear idea as to the numbers of who is voting for and against Brexit as Labour are sitting so hard on the fence you could put there votes in either or both columns.

    I feel like until something actually changes that matters i have kind of lost interest for the moment, it wont stop my voting but any conversation i have about Brexit just feels like a repeat of the previous.
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  5. #325
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Nothing is happening
    Ok just after i say that Something happened, looks like the Prime Minister once she loses her latest vote on the withdrawal agreement will set a timetable for her resignation, i expect she will be out now by the end of June!
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  6. #326
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Nah, we'll have a referendum on it first. Then there'll be a bunch of Therexit delays. Eventually she'll be left living a granny-annex at no 10 with no say in who does the housekeeping or where she's allowed to do her food shopping.
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  7. #327
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    Re: No Deal

    At some point it must all begin to resemble a meaningless drama carried out for the benefit of the masses while the real governing goes on in some small smoke-filled room in Zurich or Brussels.

  8. #328
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Your mistake is in assuming that real governing is going on at all.
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  9. #329
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    Re: No Deal

    Yeah, call me an optimist. Reality might be even scarier.

  10. #330
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Nah, we'll have a referendum on it first.
    Ah but our Theresa is firmly against a referendum, she said so many times...... and she has never ever ever changed her mind, or not done what she said she would or repeated a meaningless slogan.
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  11. #331
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    ...or held a vote then decided she didn't like the outcome so held it again...


    She has run through wheat fields though
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  12. #332
    Fanatic Member 2kaud's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Hold the front page - stop the press! Labour have just announced that they have pulled out of Brexit x-party talks with the Tories - blaming the Tories as they wouldn't concede to labour demands (as if they ever would).

    Well, that was always likely to happen - no surprise there then.

    PS May has agreed her departure date (latest end of July) and a new Tory leader will be in place by the time of the Party Conference in the Autumn.

    PPS Boris has announced he is standing as a candidate for the new Tory Party leader - definitely no surprise there!
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  13. #333
    Fanatic Member 2kaud's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Mrs May has now outlined, to great fanfare, her 10-point plan to rescue 'Brexit'...

    "When the trumpet shall sound,
    And the dead shall arise,"
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  14. #334
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    her 10-point plan
    1. Hold another vote without making any changes
    2. See 1
    3. See 2
    4. See 3
    ...
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  15. #335
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Is there a plan? I haven't heard a word in a long time. Frankly, it either baffles or amazes me, and I can't decide which. The cynical view is that once the deadline got pushed back, the sense of urgency went away and nothing will happen until the deadline looms...again. It just seemed like SOMEBODY would realize that was a really useless way to do anything...and yet...crickets...
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  16. #336
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    It's looking like she's about to quit. Took a real hammering today.
    You can depend upon the Americans to do the right thing. But only after they have exhausted every other possibility - Winston Churchill

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  17. #337
    Frenzied Member PlausiblyDamp's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker View Post
    Is there a plan? I haven't heard a word in a long time. Frankly, it either baffles or amazes me, and I can't decide which. The cynical view is that once the deadline got pushed back, the sense of urgency went away and nothing will happen until the deadline looms...again. It just seemed like SOMEBODY would realize that was a really useless way to do anything...and yet...crickets...
    We seem to be under the impression that a) the EU will cave if they feel under pressure and b) that constantly doing nothing and panicking at the last minute is somehow putting the EU under pressure.

    So yeah, not entirely sure what the hell is going on really.
    Last edited by PlausiblyDamp; May 22nd, 2019 at 01:42 PM.

  18. #338
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post
    It's looking like she's about to quit. Took a real hammering today.
    Next week might prove to be the last days of May.
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  19. #339
    MS SQL Powerposter szlamany's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    "They're ok the last days of May, I'll be breathing dry air..."

    Last edited by szlamany; May 22nd, 2019 at 03:58 PM.

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  20. #340
    MS SQL Powerposter szlamany's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    This is nice also... In Greece yet - who would have thought! Brought it right back to the EU - full circle.


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  21. #341
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    No matter what those dude's say, we're fearing the reaper, man. Pass the doobie.

    Well, the knives are seriously out. The 1922 committee have taken a secret ballot on whether to change the rules and allow an immediate vote of no confidence but they haven't actually opened the votes - they're holding it as a threat if May refuses to resign. Thing is, it's not even clear whether the 1922 commission has the power to allow that anyway so potentially May could still stick on like a barnacle.
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  22. #342
    Fanatic Member 2kaud's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    The 1922 committee have the power to change the rules - as they are the rule making body of the Tory MPs. However what is far from clear - and could be open to legal challenge - is to apply those rule changes 'retrospectively' ie before the December time-scale for a fresh confidence vote. The rules at the time of the last vote were that another could not be held for 12 months. If that rule is now changed, there is a body of opinion that says the new rule only applies either a) when there is a change of leader or b) after the December deadline. if Mrs May declines to go voluntarily and the new rule is brought in retrospectively, in theory this could lead to a court case brought by Mrs May against her own committee. Watch this space.....

    Stop press. Apparently she is going to name the day of her departure on Friday. Or is Friday the day she's going to announce the day of the announcement of the day she's going to say the day when she's leaving.
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  23. #343
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    The 1922 committee have the power to change the rules
    Is it that cut and dried? A short while back there was a discussion on the radio and someone (can't remember who now) asserting that, technically, it was the remit of another body (I can't remember who now - something like the parliamentary party... or something). Do you have a source for the 1922's remit at all?

    (Asking because I genuinely don't know and am curious)
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  24. #344
    Fanatic Member 2kaud's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Actually it is the 18 member Executive Committee of the 1922 Committee. The 1922 Committee itself consists of all the Conservative back-bench MPs. Sorry, I wasn't precise in my previous post.

    From Schedule 2 of the Conservative Party Constitution:

    "Election of Leader
    Upon the initiation of an election for the Leader, it shall be the duty of the 1922 Committee to present to the Party, as soon as reasonably practicable, a choice of candidates for election as Leader. The rules for deciding the procedure by which the 1922 Committee selects candidates for submission for election shall be determined by the Executive Committee of the 1922 Committee after consultation of the Board."

    The 1922 Executive Committee determines the procedure - it only has to 'consult' with the Conservative Party Board.
    Last edited by 2kaud; May 23rd, 2019 at 03:29 PM. Reason: Added further info
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  25. #345
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Where does the "1922" come from? Is that a reference to something happening in the year, or is the resemblance of the number to a year pure coincidence, and the number has a different meaning?
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  26. #346
    Fanatic Member 2kaud's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    The 1922 Committee – more formally the Conservative Private Members’ (1922) Committee – acquired its name because it was formed by a group of Conservative MPs, led by Sir Gervais Rentoul, who were first elected in 1922. The initial meeting to set up the committee took place in April 1923. It was designed essentially as a self-help group for new Conservative Members. It was expanded in the subsequent Parliament to incorporate the new intake of MPs before being opened to all Conservative Private Members – that is, all Conservative MPs other than the leader in Opposition and all Conservative MPs other than ministers when in Government. See https://nortonview.wordpress.com/201...922-committee/
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  27. #347
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    So Theresa May will resign as leader of the Conservative party on Friday 7th June. The process to select a new leader will begin in the following week.

    About time really, we had been going nowhere on the only issue that matters for a while.

    Changing the Conservative Party Leader and therefore the PM does not though change the arithmetic in parliament and so once the new leader is in place they will pretty much will have to hold an election if they want to shift the numbers, so i am predicting a General Election sometime before the end of the year, and therefore a further extension of the Brexit date

    There is no guarantee even then that they can shift them enough in the direction they need in order to be able to push a No Deal Brexit through.
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  28. #348
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    Re: No Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by NeedSomeAnswers View Post
    So Theresa May will resign as leader of the Conservative party on Friday 7th June. The process to select a new leader will begin in the following week.

    About time really, we had been going nowhere on the only issue that matters for a while.

    Changing the Conservative Party Leader and therefore the PM does not though change the arithmetic in parliament and so once the new leader is in place they will pretty much will have to hold an election if they want to shift the numbers, so i am predicting a General Election sometime before the end of the year, and therefore a further extension of the Brexit date

    There is no guarantee even then that they can shift them enough in the direction they need in order to be able to push a No Deal Brexit through.
    The problem with a No Deal Brexit though is that it will be devastating to the UK economy, pushing through such an act of self harm will effectively tarnish whatever party manages to force it through, assuming any of them can do it. No Deal was never what was originally offered by Brexit either so the mandate for leaving without a deal is pretty flimsy anyway.

  29. #349
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    The problem with a No Deal Brexit though is that it will be devastating to the UK economy
    Ah thats where your wrong, without any evidence or reasoning i can tell you that a No Deal Brexit will be a land of Milk and Honey.... and Unicorns!
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  30. #350
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    Re: No Deal

    I'd say the next leader is probably going to be a hard-brexiter, probably Boris, because the party arithmetic does support that. Particularly if we see a Farage landslide in these European elections as that's likely to move opinion in the Tory party toward the right. But the parliamentary arithmetic doesn't support a no deal so, yeah, that's where we jump straight back into the dead-lock.

    I agree that a GE is going to be pretty much inevitable but I think it's most likely to return a minority Tory party again. I don't see some tectonic shift coming that will see the overthrow of either of the two main parties though I think the minors are going to grab a lot of ground, making even harder for a main to achieve an overall majority. I think the Tories will be a nose ahead of labour because, if there's anyone who's less appealing to the centre than Boris, it's Corbyn.

    So where would that leave us? With a hard Brexiteer PM who's just as unable to deliver as the previous compromise PM.

    And round we go.
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  31. #351
    Frenzied Member PlausiblyDamp's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post
    So where would that leave us? With a hard Brexiteer PM who's just as unable to deliver as the previous compromise PM.

    And round we go.
    It seems we can't revoke A50 because the people voted to leave (leaving aside exactly what that was supposed to mean)
    It also seems there is no real desire outside of the Tory party for a No Deal either.

    That only leaves some form of deal, unfortunately there isn't any deal on offer that lives up to the original promises of "easiest deal ever", "we hold all the cards", "sunlit uplands", etc. so any deal on offer is being seen as the UK accepting a bad deal and that is also unacceptable.

    We are pretty much stuck we three options that can't get enough votes or support to make any one of them a choice the country can get behind.

  32. #352
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Perhaps the EU will offer a two year delay, next time around. I expect that Bexit uncertainty has a significant cost of its own (how can a business know what to do?), so perpetual delay, while seemingly likely, is it's own peculiar form of bad.

    Still, Boris and Trump!! The hair summit.
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  33. #353
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    I'd say the next leader is probably going to be a hard-brexiter, probably Boris, because the party arithmetic does support that
    Yeah i would say there is a good chance which is fairly depressing really.

    I agree that a GE is going to be pretty much inevitable but I think it's most likely to return a minority Tory party again. I don't see some tectonic shift coming that will see the overthrow of either of the two main parties though I think the minors are going to grab a lot of ground, making even harder for a main to achieve an overall majority
    Its certainly very possible but not done deal, not because i think suddenly Labour are going to surge and gain a lot of new ground but i do think that the smaller parties as you said will do better. How the Lib Dem's do could make a huge difference and it would be quite funny if they gained enough seats to be able be a king maker again.

    Also i do wonder how well the DUP will do this time round, i think there vote could be worse.
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  34. #354
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    if they gained enough seats to be able be a king maker again
    I think that's extremely likely and I don't know how they'd play it if they did.

    I really can't see them getting back into bed with the Tories. It didn't go well for them last time and they're way more opposed to each other now that Brexit is in play.

    They might form a coalition with Labour if Labour had the largest vote share (it really does look bad if you form a coalition with the runner up) but I'm not sure they'd even be comfortable with that. They were a fairly good fit with pre-Corbyn labour but now... not so much.

    I suspect it'd end up being a confidence and supply deal.
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  35. #355
    Fanatic Member 2kaud's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    The EU have stated categorically - well for now - that they're not going to change the terms of the exit deal. It's almost a certainty that a hard Brexiteer will now become PM as that is what the Tory Party members want. Boris has already said he'll bring the UK out of the EU on Oct 31 deal or no deal - and I expect other Brexiteer's to make a similar claim. No MP seen as 'going soft' on Brexit will get elected by the Tory members. If at least one of the 2 names on the member ballot isn't a hard Brexiteer, the consequent eruption will make Krakatoa look like a small firework display and the Tory party will implode. Parliament can't now stop a default no-deal Brexit. The EU deals with the UK government - not the UK parliament. All the new PM has to do is not to ask for any extension past 31 October and hey-presto the UK is out of the EU - irrespective of what the UK parliament says, does or what legislation it passes or doesn't. The EU can't just keep us in the EU past the deadline - the UK government has to request an extension (which can either be granted or not by the EU [all the other 27 members have to agree]). Until we have left the EU, a GE will probably solve nothing as we'll almost certainly get another hung parliament as the votes will be split on leave/stay lines. Only once Brexit is complete (including the next trade negotiation phase if we exit with a deal) will a GE possibly produce a result when parties campaign and people vote again on non-Brexit issues.

    PS The UK government (but again not UK Parliament) can revoke A50 any time up to the day the UK actually leaves the EU. That has already been stated by the European Court of Justice. If A50 is revoked, then the UK stays in the EU on the same terms etc as it is now. The legal minefield, of course, is if the UK Parliament passes legislation mandating the UK government to revoke A50 and the UK government refuses. There is also potentially legal issue if the UK Parliament passes legislation mandating the UK government to seek an extension past 31 October and again the UK government refuses....

    PPS The Gina Miller Supreme Court case was that the UK Government had to get the approval of the UK Parliament before it triggered Article 50 - but I don't think they need UK Parliament approval to revoke it. Triggering A50 involved changes to rights etc, but revoking A50 just leaves these as they are. The Supreme Court has no jurisdiction for leaving the EU by default on 31 October - or on whether the EU grants an extension if asked. They may have a role if the UK Government refuses to do as mandated by the UK parliament.

    It's going to be an interesting Summer
    Last edited by 2kaud; May 25th, 2019 at 06:24 AM.
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  36. #356
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    October, though.

    I'd say it will be an interesting fall.
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  37. #357
    Fanatic Member 2kaud's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    The knives have now been unsheathed, are being sharpened and some preliminary testing of back-stabbing has already been done. And the contest hasn't even officially started...... This could turn into the biggest blood bath since the Game of Thrones. Oh, and Sky is looking to televise live a jousting debate amongst the claimants to the throne.. No holds barred - winner takes all.
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  38. #358
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Parliament can't now stop a default no-deal Brexit.
    I think you will find they can, i read that same article which made this claim and a number of people have pointed out since that it ignores the fact that they can call a no confidence vote in the government and if it succeeds then that would stop it.

    The EU deals with the UK government - not the UK parliament. All the new PM has to do is not to ask for any extension past 31 October and hey-presto the UK is out of the EU - irrespective of what the UK parliament says, does or what legislation it passes or doesn't. The EU can't just keep us in the EU past the deadline - the UK government has to request an extension
    If a no confidence vote succeeded then a temporary government would be in charge which would be made up of whatever majority of MP's could get together to form one in parliament (which would most likely be a cross party group) which could then ask for an extension while a general election took place.

    Whoever becomes PM next is going to be stuck in a catch 22, they dont have the numbers in parliament to force through a no-deal brexit, there are at least 6 Conservative ministers (and probably quite a few more) who have said they will do whatever it takes to stop no deal including the current Chancellor who has said in the press that he would join a no confidence vote if necessary.
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  39. #359
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    Ah yes, to sum it up: Things can get worse....and they probably will.

    Over here, I heard an update on the situation on some useful program (many are such casual mentions that they aren't useful, and many programs don't get into enough depth to be worth listening to) that suggested that a second referendum is coming. I agree with whichever of you said that would be horrible. It would be a pretty explicit admission that the whole government (parliament included, so not just y'all, but all y'all) couldn't find a solution and are kicking it back to the people in hopes that enough people will be fed up with the situation to just let them stay in. In other words, "vote remain or else we're going to flounder through vote after vote after vote, government after government, without hope or reason, cause we already know we can't solve this one."

    What an interesting situation.
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  40. #360
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: No Deal

    I agree with whichever of you said that would be horrible.
    Been sayin' it the whole thread

    The thing is, I do acknowledge it may be one way out of this but I do think we should be honest about what it is. It's not an attempt to inject democracy or find out what the public thinks now. We know what the public thinks now, it thinks exactly the same as it did 3 years ago. It just thinks it harder - on both sides. A second referendum is a flip of the coin in the hopes that it will come up remain. You will not find a single person who voted leave who is now calling for a referendum and you will not find a single person calling for a referendum who would suggest that the choice be between a deal and no deal. Calls for a second referendum are nothing to do with democracy and everything to do with a desire to overturn the result of the previous one.

    And with the country so evenly split it's a possibility that the coin will come up remain... and what then? Does anyone really think that's going to be closure? That the leavers will quietly go back muttering into their beer? Hell no. It'll hand Farage the biggest victory of his life. The guy threw together a party and within 1 month he has lead it to become the single biggest party in the EU. Not just the single biggest from the UK, mind, the single biggest in the entire EU. He is now the single most powerful voice in a body that wants nothing to do with him and which he wants nothing to do with. Hand him the ammunition of an overturned referendum result and just wait to see what he does in the general election that he's had several months to prepare for. You will see him in parliament and possibly even in government. Probably not government but the chief opposition? I'd put money on it.

    If you don't think that can happen, listen to what the Tories and Labour have been saying about a general election right now. They're saying they won't get the same pasting because it won't be a "single issue vote". That is a head buried deep in the sand, right there, because it absolutely will be a single issue vote for every single leaver in this country if they see the previous referendum get overturned. And Farage will milk it.

    Love him or loathe him (loathe for me), Farage is an extremely effective politician. Probably the most effective in at least 2 decades.
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