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Thread: World War 3?

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    World War 3?

    I find it odd that no thread was created regarding this Iran-US issue, or is it not worth the discussion? Is there a real possibility that it will lead to World War 3?
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  2. #2
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    Re: World War 3?

    Wouldn't say WW3, Trump has disengaged the USA from most countries. Don't think we will be seeing a lot of other countries eager to join us in this fight. Lets just hope it doesn't escalate into a full war. That said, not much we can do but wait and see.

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    Re: World War 3?

    Given Trump's history of distracting from his failings by shifting the conversation, I wouldn't be surprised if he had ordered the assassination of the Iranian military leader to distract from his impeachment. Trump is also the type to never admit any failing, implicitly or explicitly, so the likelihood of him escalating things rather than just accepting that Iran's attacks on Iraq were retaliation for something the US did and should not have done seems rather high too. The sensible thing for him to do would to just accept that it was tit-for-tat and not to make things worse. Of course, that would be the very sort of thing that Trump's supporters would have labelled Obama weak for doing. I'm sure that, should Trump actually do the sensible thing, they will find some way to cast that as a demonstration of Trump's strength.

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    Re: World War 3?

    Quote Originally Posted by jmcilhinney View Post
    Given Trump's history of distracting from his failings by shifting the conversation, I wouldn't be surprised if he had ordered the assassination of the Iranian military leader to distract from his impeachment.
    Is he the first one to do that or wasn't there a previous US President who did the same, attacked another country when he is getting impeached? My fuzzy memory seems to tell me there was another one, I am not sure if it was Clinton.

    EDIT:
    If this article/news is correct then it was indeed Clinton: https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/cl...e-impeachment/
    Last edited by dee-u; Jan 8th, 2020 at 01:11 AM.
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    Wall Poster TysonLPrice's Avatar
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    Re: World War 3?

    Quote Originally Posted by dee-u View Post
    I find it odd that no thread was created regarding this Iran-US issue, or is it not worth the discussion? Is there a real possibility that it will lead to World War 3?
    I have wanted to post about it but I am so rabidly anti-Trump I have held off. I could post something about that moron every day. I have tried to maintain a posture this is Chit Chat, not a political forum.

    But now that it has been asked

    Bombs have been dropped. Iran says they slapped the USA back and let's stop now. I guess we will know fairly quickly if this escalates across the region.

    Trump, among the many things already mentioned, in my opinion, is basically a coward. I think left to himself he would stop at this point. But, the adults have left the administration and small minds are in charge. I can't guess what is next but I'm sure it will not be thought out with an established end game.

    There has been bad blood between the two nations for awhile now. In the fifties the USA overthrew the Iranian government and installed the Shah to get the oil. Then the USA backed Irag in it's war eight bloody years long war against Iran. More recently Trump tore up a global agreement and started crippling sanctions against Iran. I'm not taking Iran's side in recent events. We do need to keep in mind how we got here though.

    As a side note I have Faux news on as I type this...they are beating war drums.
    Last edited by TysonLPrice; Jan 8th, 2020 at 07:38 AM.
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    Wall Poster TysonLPrice's Avatar
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    Re: World War 3?

    Trump's position and response is being discussed on Faux news...when he gets a chance to see it he can act on it. That is probably one of the few things I like about Trump. You can watch Faux news in the morning and find out what America's policy is on events is before Trump knows. This is from Hannity and will be Trump's position later this morning:

    "Hannity called Iranian leaders “stupid” and repeatedly touted U.S. military might, warning that Iran’s oil refineries “could soon go up in flames” and their “illicit nuclear sites may finally be annihilated.”

    “There is a massive price to pay,” he said. “Their hostility will now be met with the full force of the greatest, most advanced, most sophisticated military this world has ever seen.”

    The host continued: “Without boots on the ground whatsoever, the United States will be ready to decimate Iran’s rogue leaders with our superior weaponry.”
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    Re: World War 3?

    I wasn't aware of the timing of Clinton's bombing but I suspect interested parties would go back and forward on the motivations for both Trump and Clinton and never reach a conclusion. I won't speak to Clintons motives (I simply don't know anywhere near enough about it) but I personally don't think Trumps motivation for the missile attack was anything to do with the impeachment. He didn't need impeachment as a motivation for maverick acts before the process started and he doesn't need it now. This is just Strong Man Trump being Strong Man Trump.

    That's not to let him off the hook. Strong Man Trump is the worst side of a man I find to be deeply flawed in a multitude of ways and it's the worst side to me because I really, REALLY don't like bullies. And I believe this bully is happy to kill if it takes his whim. Just digest that thought for a second.


    As for what happens next, I doubt the Iranian leadership will respond beyond todays missiles without further provocation. Their proxies, on the other hand, are likely to be far more unpredictable and I wouldn't be surprised to see some atrocities from that direction. I kinda feel Trump himself isn't taking this further without provocation (the Iranian missile response seems to have been a bit of a damp squib so he still looks like he's "won") but I'm concerned about some of the hawks in his administration and I believe that the right words into his shell like are all it would take to tip him into massive escalation.

    I cross my fingers that we're done and I think there's a fair chance that we are... but I'm a long way from certain.
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    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: World War 3?

    Frankly, I think the retaliation is meaningless. What matters is that there is no way that Iran will even pretend to abide by the nuclear treaty anymore. That treaty certainly had flaws, one of which was the limited duration, but it was working well enough at the time that Trump scrapped it. There may still have been a chance, as Iran was trying to get the EU to help out, which showed that they saw the economic impact as something to be avoided, and were willing to trade nuclear weapons for economic assistance.

    I would assume that is now dead, along with any hope that they will not push forwards towards a nuclear bomb. How long will that take? Hard to say, especially since it is so existentially important to Israel. However, at least some of the sites are so deep that a simple bombing raid won't make much of a difference, which would mean war. Yet another, avoidable, war in the Middle East, but this time with a country that is several times larger than Iraq, and more cohesive.

    The tit-for-tat stuff won't matter all that much, unless you or yours are unfortunate enough to be caught in it directly. The bigger issue is that the window for a negotiated settlement has likely just been slammed shut. The fact that it is becoming increasingly evident that it was done for no particular reason just makes it all the more painful. That guy (whose name I can't think of, and won't bother to look up) was certainly a bad dude in charge of a bad group, but the group is still there, probably a bit stronger than they were (politically, at least, since they now have a national martyr), and any moderate voices have now been silenced.
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    Wall Poster TysonLPrice's Avatar
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    Re: World War 3?

    I just listened to his address to the nations...between the lines I think both sides are standing down for now. Trump has his favorite lies that he constantly repeats knowing full well He is lying. China is paying us billions in tariffs is one. Another he just mentioned is how Iran took the billion or so dollars Obama paid Iran and used it for terrorism. Republicans keep repeating in their echo chamber and I guess they have said it enough their base believes it too. That was Iran's money that was frozen and them released with interest paid.

    Trump can't even tell the truth about where his father was born. He is over 13,000 lies since he took office. How can we believe anything he says.
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    Re: World War 3?

    Regarding the nuclear treaty, I've thought for a long time (long before Trump) that any nation that finds itself on the wrong side of the US is far better served rushing for nuclear capability than it is by sincerely pursuing diss-armament. I'm afraid you guys have been showing for about a century that you'll only respect that effort as long as it suits you. No offence, we'd be behaving exactly the same if we were still carrying a stick the size of yours (and historically that's exactly how we did behave when we had one).

    Sad to say but I think N Korea got it right. And now so will Iran. And both will have proved that de-escalation of an arms race can never (and to my knowledge has never) be achieved through coercion. Only by sincere co-operation from both parties. It's simply impossible to prevent a nation pursuing nuclear capability by anything short of a boots on the ground invasion (with all the ensuing aftermath).
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    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: World War 3?

    Yeah, but we had a chance at moving towards peaceful cooperation. Despite all we've done to Iran over the decades, there's still room to work towards a better relationship. There were steps in that direction. Now there are not.
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    Re: World War 3?

    Agreed. I find it troubling that this will now be lauded by some as a foreign policy success despite the fact that all it's actually done is made Iran's pursuit of nuclear capability more likely. It's only a success in terms of "My ****'s bigger than yours" which doesn't seem a good basis for international diplomacy to me.
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    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: World War 3?

    Iran will certainly move forwards, but Israel has made it pretty clear that they fear that more than most anything. They've never failed to bomb targets that they thought could end up producing nuclear weapons by neighbors. However, some of the Iranian facilities are very hard to hit. That concerns me, as it seems likely that this will lead directly to war. The US will not be able to sit on the sidelines if Israel goes to war with Iran, or vice versa.

    We really needed to avoid that morass.
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    Re: World War 3?

    Wasn't going to say anything when I read this yesterday but today after reading it again my curiosity got the best of me,

    Despite all we've done to Iran over the decades

    Do you feel that Iran is an innocent, being brutalized by the US. It's my understanding that Iran has it's fingers dipped in violent acts in several parts of the region.

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    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: World War 3?

    No, they certainly aren't innocent, but the first abuse was ours. They had a democratically elected government led by a decidedly eccentric nationalist (Mossadegh). The company that is now BP was almost certainly robbing them blind, so the government kicked them out following WW II, and nationalized the oil production. The Brits were rebuilding from the war, and were in no position to do anything on their own, so they went to the US. That was under Truman, though, who told them to take a hike. Once Eisenhower was elected, they came back saying that Iran was considering going communist (with the USSR). They weren't. In fact, they persecuted communists, and quite reasonably feared their massive northern neighbor (also the USSR, in case you missed the geography). Since the US was commie-phobic at the time, this line of argument was well received by the Dulles brothers. The US then manufactured a coup that toppled the democratically elected government and installed the Shah, who was a weak and timid man (he thought the coup was failing and fled the country, only to be dragged back by stronger-willed family members), and therefore ruled with brutality. He was toppled in the 70s, and Iran has been a sponsor of terrorism and a theocratic dictatorship ever since.

    The point is, we created them by toppling their solid democracy with a staged coup. There's a pretty cool history of the whole thing called something like "All the Shahs Men". The US comes off as can-do dupes, while the real villains of the piece would be the British. Still, it was the US that staged the coup, whether or not it was our idea. Iran still makes reference to that incident in some of their rhetoric, though they're somewhat muted about it, considering that ultimately led to the current regime.
    Last edited by Shaggy Hiker; Jan 9th, 2020 at 02:32 PM.
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    Re: World War 3?

    Quote Originally Posted by wes4dbt View Post
    Wasn't going to say anything when I read this yesterday but today after reading it again my curiosity got the best of me,

    Do you feel that Iran is an innocent, being brutalized by the US. It's my understanding that Iran has it's fingers dipped in violent acts in several parts of the region.
    At this very moment the USA is doing that across the globe. We are all over Africa, we are supplying weapons to Saudi Arabia for their war in Yemen. The difference is when Iran is doing it they are supporting terrorists. When the USA does it we are supporting freedom fighters

    From post #5

    There has been bad blood between the two nations for awhile now. In the fifties the USA overthrew the Iranian government and installed the Shah to get the oil. Then the USA backed Irag in it's eight bloody years long war against Iran. More recently Trump tore up a global agreement and started crippling sanctions against Iran. I'm not taking Iran's side in recent events. We do need to keep in mind how we got here though.

    I'm not picking sides on this point...just playing devil's advocate.
    Last edited by TysonLPrice; Jan 9th, 2020 at 02:52 PM.
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    Re: World War 3?

    Sh, Ty,

    Interesting posts. The middle east is a confusing place. I'm 66 and can't remember a time when there wasn't people killing each other somewhere in the middle east. It's amazing how many people have been killed in the name of God. All sorts of Americans have thought (or at least said) they had a plan to bring peace in the middle east. Never happened. One part of me says lets get all troops out of the area and let them solve there own problems. But the part of me that hates oppression, censorship and inhumane acts, hopes that maybe we can make their lives better. The whole nuclear issue seems futile. They all are going to have the capability some day. I fear a terrorist getting their hands on one more. It's hard to retaliate against those kind of groups, it's easy to retaliate against a country.

    If anyone has a solution please post it. Let's put this forum on the map!!!

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    Re: World War 3?

    When the tension appears to be subsiding, now Trudeau says the Ukrainian plane has been hit by an Iranian missile.
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    Re: World War 3?

    Quote Originally Posted by dee-u View Post
    When the tension appears to be subsiding, now Trudeau says the Ukrainian plane has been hit by an Iranian missile.
    That sucks. I remember when the US did the same thing to an Iranian airliner. I heard something about the NTSB saying wouldn't be going to Iran to investigate the crash. Don't blame them. This was before the missile story broke. But so far all I've read is "US evidence suggest an Iranian missile was the cause" so I'm still waiting for more conformation.

  20. #20
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: World War 3?

    can't remember a time when there wasn't people killing each other somewhere in the middle east.
    Well there was this dude called Moses who basically thought we should be nice to each other. Nobody listened to him so he walked out and it's been downhill ever since.

    Another dude called Jeebus came along a bit later and said the same thing but this time people had heard it all before so they nailed him to a tree and it's been downhill ever since.

    Another dude called Muhammed turned up later with exactly the same message about being nice to each other but when he realised nobody was listening to him he remembered what they'd done to Jeebus and said "you try that on me and I'll show you what for, matey boy" and it's been downhill ever since.

    The some British dude called Lawrence (so obviously private school educated) turned up and said "Oi, you lot better start being nice to each other or my mates back home'll start knocking heads" and it's been downhill ever since.

    Then a load of Jewish blokes rolled into town saying, "Remember that Jeebus fella, he was our mate. We're going to going to camp out here for a while. I'm sure we can put that whole sorry mess and start being nice to each other". And it's been downhill ever since.

    Then the Americans turned up, looked around and said "Wow!, Can't you guys just be nice to each other". And it's been downhill ever since.

    That's my understanding of the history but I might have some of it a bit wrong. Nowhere in the world have so many good intentions led to so much violence and hatred.
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  21. #21
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: World War 3?

    That's my understanding of the history but I might have some of it a bit wrong.
    Ah you have it all wrong there FD, what actually happened was whoever was the biggest gangster at the time killed a bunch of people took all there stuff and land and distributed it to them and their mates.

    Once they had all the stuff and land they then told everyone lets be nice to each other (apart from poor people, foreigners and black slaves that we need to do all the work) in an effort to stop the next biggest gangster from trying to take there stuff off them.

    Eventually after many many many years people got fed up of the killing bit and the slavery bit (mostly) so gangsters (also known as Emperors, Kings & Queens) got turfed out and we corporatised wealth in an effort to spread it around a bit more (with mixed results), oh and since wars aren't very nice we decided to only hold them in other countries far away from ours.
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    Re: World War 3?

    Quote Originally Posted by wes4dbt View Post
    Sh, Ty,

    Interesting posts. The middle east is a confusing place. I'm 66 and can't remember a time when there wasn't people killing each other somewhere in the middle east. It's amazing how many people have been killed in the name of God. All sorts of Americans have thought (or at least said) they had a plan to bring peace in the middle east. Never happened. One part of me says lets get all troops out of the area and let them solve there own problems. But the part of me that hates oppression, censorship and inhumane acts, hopes that maybe we can make their lives better. The whole nuclear issue seems futile. They all are going to have the capability some day. I fear a terrorist getting their hands on one more. It's hard to retaliate against those kind of groups, it's easy to retaliate against a country.

    If anyone has a solution please post it. Let's put this forum on the map!!!
    Jared Kushner has already solved it and he is just waiting until the Israel elections are over to share it with the world
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    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: World War 3?

    Quote Originally Posted by TysonLPrice View Post
    Jared Kushner has already solved it and he is just waiting until the Israel elections are over to share it with the world
    And since the Israel elections pop up every couple months, and appear likely to continue doing so until the heat death of the universe, we'll just never know.
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  24. #24
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    Re: World War 3?

    Apparently this is mostly about gas and oil.
    Everything else is just an excuse.
    If there wasn't any gas or oil then nothing would have happened.
    Slow as hell.

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    Re: World War 3?

    To be fair, people have been hatin' on each other in that part of the world since waaay before Oil was seen as valuable. It sure hasn't helped the situation in the last century though.

    I have to say, I'm surprised at the rapid turnaround of public opinion in Iran since the regime's admission that they accidentally brought down that plane. I was pleasantly surprised at the calm way the West handled that admission (I was expecting Trump to gloat like crazy) but I wasn't expecting this level of backlash from within. I think the regime will survive it but it's looking less and less certain.
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    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: World War 3?

    Yeah, that surprised me, as well. Normally, there's a certain amount of rallying around the flag, but the vigor of those protests was really interesting. That suggests that the anger in that society towards the current regime is pretty intense. Iran is an ancient civilization with considerable pride and cohesion. I was thinking that the US actions would strengthen the regime, especially since it's becoming increasingly clear that the assassination was a Trumpian whim based on nothing at all, which is pretty bad. To see this level of anger over what amounts to an accident (they certainly don't seem to have WANTED to shoot down a civilian jetliner), suggests that there the cohesion in Iranian society isn't cohesion in support of the regime.
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    Re: World War 3?

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post
    To be fair, people have been hatin' on each other in that part of the world since waaay before Oil was seen as valuable. It sure hasn't helped the situation in the last century though.

    I have to say, I'm surprised at the rapid turnaround of public opinion in Iran since the regime's admission that they accidentally brought down that plane. I was pleasantly surprised at the calm way the West handled that admission (I was expecting Trump to gloat like crazy) but I wasn't expecting this level of backlash from within. I think the regime will survive it but it's looking less and less certain.
    If they don't, in my opinion, it will be the second time in less than seventy years the USA has collapsed their government. I can understand the Iranians protesting against their government. Maybe they wouldn't be if Trump didn't hate Obama so much and had left the agreements in place. He is deliberately making the Iranian people suffer to bring down the regime. The irony is every day Trump says he isn't trying for regime change.
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    Re: World War 3?

    How about US getting the Hell out of the region?
    And while doing so, get the help out of Europe.
    We don't want to be imposed our peace thankyouverymuch.
    Slow as hell.

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    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: World War 3?

    There was some analysis on Radio 4 this morning. Here were a few take-aways:-

    Iran is Ancient but it's actually not that cohesive. It's made up of a number of different ethnic groups and has plenty of internal tensions. They're well hidden, as they often are in autocratic systems, but they're there.
    Another of those tensions is young vs old. Iran has a high level of education and the young are increasingly progressive. They're increasingly dissatisfied with their autocratic system.
    Iran has struggled under Trump's sanctions but the regime haven't handled that well. For example, when there were recent protests against fuel price rises forced by the sanctions, the regime responded by shutting down the internet. Given the increasingly progressive tendencies mentioned above, you can imagine what the fall out of that was - much MUCH bigger protests.

    It sounds to me like Trumps missile attack gave the regime a temporary bounce. All of a sudden the Iranian people saw themselves as under attack and we all know that nothing brings a people together like an external threat. But the regime bringing down the plane is seen as incompetence. And their initial denial is playing into an already deeply seated suspicion that the regime deceives it's own people. And then remember that the vast majority of people on that plane were Iranian. That's a pretty big emotional roller coaster that the people of Iran have been on over the last few weeks.
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    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: World War 3?

    The passenger list on the plane was a bit of a surprise to me, as well. While the majority were Iranians, the number of Canadians was surprisingly high. Regardless of the destination, that was an awful lot of Canadians to find together in one place. Most of the cities in Canada don't have that many Canadians in one place. Furthermore, this is hockey season.

    It just sounds suspicious.

    When the US shot down an Iranian passenger jetliner by accident, Bush didn't even apologize...and nothing happened. When the Iranians shoot down a passenger jetliner by accident, their own citizens riot. When you add that to the quote in FD's signature, it just gets more ironic. The US has the greatest ideals of any country in the world. We occasionally even manage to live up to them. Mostly, we fall short and hope the rest of the world will be as forgetful of that fact as we are.

    I'd say that's my biggest disappointment in this country: We have the ideals, we just disregard them whenever they are somewhat inconvenient. I realize you can't always live by those ideals, but I sure wish we'd try.
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    Wall Poster TysonLPrice's Avatar
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    Re: World War 3?

    It just sounds suspicious.
    You might consider at a career at Breitbart

    If you really want to know check out this link:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51053220

    I do think you were just kidding.
    Last edited by TysonLPrice; Jan 14th, 2020 at 06:49 AM.
    Please remember next time...elections matter!

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