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Thread: Will .Net outlive us?

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    Software Carpenter dee-u's Avatar
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    Lightbulb Will .Net outlive us?

    It is not that I hate .Net or what, I am just concerned that if I develop apps today it might not work anymore after 15-20 years, am I paranoid? I just don't want to 'rewrite' my apps when I am already 50+ years old.

    If there is a 'possibility' that .Net will also be abandoned on such timeframe then what will be a more future-proof option?

    TIA
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    PowerPoster Nightwalker83's Avatar
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    Re: Will .Net outlive us?

    Quote Originally Posted by dee-u View Post
    It is not that I hate .Net or what, I am just concerned that if I develop apps today it might not work anymore after 15-20 years, am I paranoid?
    That is when rewriting the application comes into play.
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    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: Will .Net outlive us?

    if I develop apps today it might not work anymore after 15-20 years
    Quite likely not. Or at least, not on the hardware that will be current then. This isn't a .Net phenomenon though, it's a function of how rapidly the tech industry changes.

    20 years ago, half the offices around the world didn't have PCs on their desktops, they had dumb terminals. And half the ones that had PCs on them weren't running dedicated desktop software, they were running emulators of dumb terminals. Now it's 20 years on and, if you believe Dilitante (which I don't but he will be right eventually) then the desktop's already dead (and .Net along with it) and we've all got develop for android devices. In another 20 year's there'll be no android devices and we'll all have a constant stream of social media pumped directly into our visual cortex.

    The one constant of software development is that it will change because the world around it changes. Whatever tech you specialise in today will be irrelevent tomorrow. I guess if there's a take away message from that it's: don't specialise.

    The bottom line is, if you want to be a developer then be prepared to change and evolve. If you aren't prepared to do that then you're in the wrong industry. Retrain as a civil engineer instead.

    what will be a more future-proof option?
    Management
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    Hyperactive Member Maven's Avatar
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    Re: Will .Net outlive us?

    Quote Originally Posted by dee-u View Post
    It is not that I hate .Net or what, I am just concerned that if I develop apps today it might not work anymore after 15-20 years, am I paranoid? I just don't want to 'rewrite' my apps when I am already 50+ years old.

    If there is a 'possibility' that .Net will also be abandoned on such timeframe then what will be a more future-proof option?

    TIA
    Any language or library can become obsolete. Mainframe coding for example has fell by the wayside even though it was huge at one time; however, there is a lot of mainframe code still in existence and in operation.

    While your programs will run on the machines in which they were designed, it's impossible to say if they'll run on future machines.
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    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: Will .Net outlive us?

    It is not that I hate .Net or what, I am just concerned that if I develop apps today it might not work anymore after 15-20 years, am I paranoid?
    Yes

    If there is a 'possibility' that .Net will also be abandoned on such timeframe then what will be a more future-proof option?
    c++ maybe, but do you really want to go down that road.

    In all likelyhood .Net will be around for many years, it will become less popular, and at some point they will stop teaching it to new students as new stuff takes its place, but just think how many .net apps there are out there! They cant/wont re-write them all as its too expensive so they ( companies) will need people to maintain them! ( that means you :0)

    COBOL for instance has been around since 1959 and yet i know personally at least 2 people making a living maintaining COBOL apps today, and they get good money as there are not many COBOL developers around. Scarcity can have its own rewards.

    Also i had to recruit for a Progress developer (yeah i hadn't heard of progress either) last year and while there aren't many around, they all have 15-20 odd years experience and where charging £300-350 a day (obviously this was a contractor role as we just couldn't get anyone permanent).

    So just because something is no longer popular doesn't mean that its a bad bet.

    what will be a more future-proof option?
    Management
    agreed :0)
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    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: Will .Net outlive us?

    Forget the 15 year horizon for a minute. The current year is 2014. Twenty years back was 1994, which means that PCs were running DOS or Windows3.1 on Intel processors in Real Mode using segmented memory architecture. Over on the Mac side, the OS was OS7 (or you might have still been using OS6, if you were lucky) running on a Motorola CPU. Another alternative was OS/2, though that was never huge and was fading fast by that time. Anything written for any of those OSes on that hardware in that year is either totally abandoned, or run in emulators only. Apple flat out abandoned the hardware AND the software. OS/2 is long gone, Windows 3.1 is but a memory, and some DOS apps still run in emulators.

    We don't work in an industry that has a 20 year horizon. Ten years is likely, 15 years is possible, but in 20 years, don't expect anything you have written to be anything other than quaint nostalgia, and even 15 years is probably optimistic these days. In the previous 20 year window, EVERYTHING changed, and the pace of change is speeding up, not slowing down.
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    Re: Will .Net outlive us?

    There is a far wider world out there than a lot of casual .Net coders seem to realize.

    Python Becomes Most Popular CS Teaching Language

    Having seen usage of his Python educational tool "skyrocketed due to the popularity of the language", Guo set out to discover how many of the top-ranked U.S. computer science departments now use Python to teach their introductory courses. In doing so he also ended up recording the occurrence of other popular teaching languages.
    Personally I doubt Python is as popular as they'd have us believe. And it appears that the statistics presented are all about academic introductory programming courses.

    While I'm sure you can find a job here and there requiring Python those seem like unusual cases to me.

    Notably not a single .Net language makes the list at all. But that probably has far more to do with curriculum goals which are not aimed at producing vocational coders. If you looked at 2-year trade schools and business departments instead of university computer science departments you'd probably find .Net ranking far closer to Java and Cobol.

    Java is an interesting case because it is one of the few languages that commonly bridges the worlds of vocation and profession.

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    Re: Will .Net outlive us?

    Quote Originally Posted by dee-u View Post
    It is not that I hate .Net or what, I am just concerned that if I develop apps today it might not work anymore after 15-20 years, am I paranoid? I just don't want to 'rewrite' my apps when I am already 50+ years old.

    If there is a 'possibility' that .Net will also be abandoned on such timeframe then what will be a more future-proof option?

    TIA
    Well consider this. QuickBasic was released in 1985 and you can still run apps written in it today. MS has an unusual commitment to backward compatibility. I'd bet you'd get great longevity with .Net. MS abandoned VB6 like a decade ago yet apps written in it still work to this day! So imagine how much time you would have with a current tech like .Net.
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  9. #9
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: Will .Net outlive us?

    I have VB6 apps still working after 17 years, so that's nearing the 20 year horizon. Meanwhile, I have some .NET apps that vanished in a couple years because they targeted hardware that was discontinued (PDAs).
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    Re: Will .Net outlive us?

    Targeting .Net 3.5 SP1 or later might help with longevity:

    http://support.microsoft.com/lifecyc....NET+Framework

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    Re: Will .Net outlive us?

    I dont think its the right question, its more like will there be a need for the app to be running 20 years from now? Where there is a will there is a way to keep it running for 20 years. The real issue is will you want/need to?

    Rewritting apps can be a source of more income, more opportunities and the ability to improve upon what was written etc.

    Dont be afraid to write something in whatever language. Its all part of learning. If you only want to write one and forget about maintaining or improving it over the next 20 years then thats not a SE's job/role. How many projects did you have that involved improving or extending someone elses program? Programs easily last 10+ years and that in itself should be the limit before technology makes huge leaps to where you will want to rewrite/improve.

    Im on a project to port an Access 2.0 VBA db program over to C# and SQL server yet my skills with VBA sure did come in handy to say the least! Learning a language is never a waste even if its only lasts for a few years. It will come in handy somewhere and sometime down the road.
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    Re: Will .Net outlive us?

    Quote Originally Posted by RobDog888 View Post
    Im on a project to port an Access 2.0 VBA db program over to C# and SQL server yet my skills with VBA sure did come in handy to say the least! Learning a language is never a waste even if its only lasts for a few years. It will come in handy somewhere and sometime down the road.
    Amazing, since Access didn't get VBA until Access 7.0!

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    Re: Will .Net outlive us?

    Quote Originally Posted by dilettante View Post
    Amazing, since Access didn't get VBA until Access 7.0!
    You sure about that ? For as long as I can remember, Access allowed you to create Forms just like a VB6 app and program it just as you would a VB6 app. Isn't the code behind for Access' Forms VBA ?
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    C++ programmers will dismiss you as a cretinous simpleton for your inability to keep track of pointers chained 6 levels deep and Java programmers will pillory you for buying into the evils of Microsoft. Meanwhile C# programmers will get paid just a little bit more than you for writing exactly the same code and VB6 programmers will continue to whitter on about "footprints". - FunkyDexter

    There's just no reason to use garbage like InputBox. - jmcilhinney

    The threads I start are Niya and Olaf free zones. No arguing about the benefits of VB6 over .NET here please. Happiness must reign. - yereverluvinuncleber

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    Re: Will .Net outlive us?

    Not until Access 95 (7.0). Before that a slightly different language "Access Basic" was used.

    Here you go: Microsoft Access

    With Office 95, Microsoft Access 7.0 (a.k.a. "Access 95") became part of the Microsoft Office Professional Suite, joining Microsoft Excel, Word, and PowerPoint and transitioning from Access Basic to Visual Basic for Applications (VBA).

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    Angel of Code Niya's Avatar
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    Re: Will .Net outlive us?

    I see. It wasn't VBA. I stand corrected.
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    C++ programmers will dismiss you as a cretinous simpleton for your inability to keep track of pointers chained 6 levels deep and Java programmers will pillory you for buying into the evils of Microsoft. Meanwhile C# programmers will get paid just a little bit more than you for writing exactly the same code and VB6 programmers will continue to whitter on about "footprints". - FunkyDexter

    There's just no reason to use garbage like InputBox. - jmcilhinney

    The threads I start are Niya and Olaf free zones. No arguing about the benefits of VB6 over .NET here please. Happiness must reign. - yereverluvinuncleber

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    Re: Will .Net outlive us?

    But the point is still valid. Future skills are based on past skills, and the future will just keep on coming.

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    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: Will .Net outlive us?

    And names will be much more fluid.
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    Re: Will .Net outlive us?

    Quote Originally Posted by dilettante View Post
    But the point is still valid. Future skills are based on past skills, and the future will just keep on coming.
    Correct, my long winded attempt at that point lol

    Ps, and actually the projects uses Access 2.0, Access 97 and Access 2000 all automated in one way or another from VB.NET/C#
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    Re: Will .Net outlive us?

    Where's tg and sz? I am anticipating they will advice me to move to web using js, ajax, etc. Could it be that I will be better off developing web applications instead? The thing here is I can dictate what I want to use since I am the only programmer and we don't sell it, its just for internal use but I may not be able to tell them what OS to use so there. I'm afraid I cannot go to the Management option since I work for a College.
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  20. #20
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    Re: Will .Net outlive us?

    What do you mean?

    For example maybe tomorrow they tell you "In 6 months we will replace all PCs with Macs, get ready" or something?

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    Re: Will .Net outlive us?

    No. Like now .Net apps works till 8.1 but we will not know about future versions and I might not be able to persuade them to just use 8.1 because it is where the applications work.

    At about 15-20 years from now I maybe lazy already to rewrite those apps just so that they will work on future windows versions.
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    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: Will .Net outlive us?

    We debate this point internally, and to a large extent the answer we have come up with is: The web will be around, but desktops may or may not.

    Technically, this isn't true. There are clear issues that could clobber the internet in any given country, though it seems fairly unlikely. What is far more likely is that the technology of the web will undergo some kind of fundamental revolution that will wipe out sites other than simple HTML. I don't see anything currently on the horizon that could do that, but I do see some forces that could trigger than change. One is cyber-crime, another is espionage, and a third is business. Radical changes to the way the web works currently, either to tighten security, or to squeeze more money out of some segment of the population, could end up obsoleting current web technology. I doubt that would impact basic pages that are nothing but simple HTML, but it could easily take out JS, Ajax, and other things....depending on exactly which direction things changed.

    Will that happen? Nobody knows. We aren't very good about predicting the past, let alone the future.
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  23. #23

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    Re: Will .Net outlive us?

    I am not sure what is the proper term for that, a webbased app that will just run on the local area network not over the internet.
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    Frenzied Member Gruff's Avatar
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    Re: Will .Net outlive us?

    Quote Originally Posted by dee-u View Post
    Will .Net outlive us?
    Depends on how long I Live.
    Burn the land and boil the sea
    You can't take the sky from me


    ~T

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    Re: Will .Net outlive us?

    Quote Originally Posted by dee-u View Post
    I am not sure what is the proper term for that, a webbased app that will just run on the local area network not over the internet.
    I would think an Intranet app.
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  26. #26
    Ex-Super Mod RobDog888's Avatar
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    Re: Will .Net outlive us?

    Quote Originally Posted by Gruff View Post
    Depends on how long I Live.
    It will outlive me thats for sure

    Quote Originally Posted by Niya View Post
    I would think an Intranet app.
    Correct
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    Re: Will .Net outlive us?

    Quote Originally Posted by dee-u View Post
    At about 15-20 years from now I maybe lazy already to rewrite those apps just so that they will work on future windows versions.
    If I'm still doing this in 15-20 years, there's something wrong. I'm closer to the end of my development career than I am the beginning. If I'm still doing this in 15 years, then plans have seriously gone off the rails and I need to re-evaluate things. Heck, if I'm still doing this in 11 years, something isn't going to plan.

    -tg
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  28. #28
    Ex-Super Mod RobDog888's Avatar
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    Re: Will .Net outlive us?

    I hope to be done developing in no more than 8 years max. Time to go outside and do things vs sitting behind a monitor all day never seeing the sun etc
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  29. #29
    Angel of Code Niya's Avatar
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    Re: Will .Net outlive us?

    The only time I will stop doing this is when I die! Its tedious at times but I really love programming. I may not like all the projects I'm given but I love it in general.
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    C++ programmers will dismiss you as a cretinous simpleton for your inability to keep track of pointers chained 6 levels deep and Java programmers will pillory you for buying into the evils of Microsoft. Meanwhile C# programmers will get paid just a little bit more than you for writing exactly the same code and VB6 programmers will continue to whitter on about "footprints". - FunkyDexter

    There's just no reason to use garbage like InputBox. - jmcilhinney

    The threads I start are Niya and Olaf free zones. No arguing about the benefits of VB6 over .NET here please. Happiness must reign. - yereverluvinuncleber

  30. #30
    Smooth Moperator techgnome's Avatar
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    Re: Will .Net outlive us?

    Quote Originally Posted by Niya View Post
    The only time I will stop doing this is when I die! Its tedious at times but I really love programming. I may not like all the projects I'm given but I love it in general.
    Aaah... the sweet sound of innocent youth... I used to be like that. then the cynicism set in... Now... not so much. I look forward to the day when I can hang up my mouse and keyboard and do something else for a while.

    -tg
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    Re: Will .Net outlive us?

    Quote Originally Posted by techgnome View Post
    Aaah... the sweet sound of innocent youth... I used to be like that. then the cynicism set in... Now... not so much. I look forward to the day when I can hang up my mouse and keyboard and do something else for a while.

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  32. #32
    Angel of Code Niya's Avatar
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    Re: Will .Net outlive us?

    Quote Originally Posted by techgnome View Post
    Aaah... the sweet sound of innocent youth... I used to be like that. then the cynicism set in... Now... not so much. I look forward to the day when I can hang up my mouse and keyboard and do something else for a while.

    -tg
    Quote Originally Posted by RobDog888 View Post
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    Aren't we cynical

    Hope that never happens to me.
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  33. #33
    Smooth Moperator techgnome's Avatar
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    Re: Will .Net outlive us?

    Quote Originally Posted by Niya View Post
    Aren't we cynical
    Whaaaat? Who me? Cynical? Noooooo! Never!

    Quote Originally Posted by Niya View Post
    Hope that never happens to me.
    Aaah... the sweet sound of innocent youth... I used to be like that.

    -tg
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  34. #34
    Frenzied Member Gruff's Avatar
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    Re: Will .Net outlive us?

    I still can't wait to get to work in the morning. Love what I do.

    That might have something to do with being a one man band.
    I do not work for a programming department or team.

    I proactively seek out programming projects so much of what I do is self determined.

    The IT ball cap I wear occasionally is still a pain.
    I'd give that job away in a heart beat.
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    ~T

  35. #35
    PowerPoster SJWhiteley's Avatar
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    Re: Will .Net outlive us?

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post
    ...

    The one constant of software development is that it will change because the world around it changes. Whatever tech you specialise in today will be irrelevent tomorrow. I guess if there's a take away message from that it's: don't specialise.

    ...
    This is where the tradeoff between specialization and broad skill acquisition comes into play. at some point, a specialist is worth their weight in gold. On the other hand, no one will pay a specialist if they can get a replacement. A farrier is a specialist, but it isn't in great demand. Back when horses were the mode of transportation, of course, it is different.

    While we all cannot predict the future, we can, at least, see the writing on the wall for certain technologies. It doesn't take too long to become more than competent in a given development environment; at that point, broaden ones skills to achieve competency in another language.

    It's not an either/or scenario.
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  36. #36
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: Will .Net outlive us?

    I mostly love what I do, too. It generally comes down to who I have to deal with, though.

    On the other hand, what SJW just said rings true for me in a different way. I happen to be an accidental specialist. I have a set of knowledge in one, very narrow, problem domain that may be totally unique: Fish Hatchery operation. Now, there are LOTS of people who know hatcheries and how they work, and many of those people know it better than I do. However, I know it pretty well, while also dealing with the data generated by hatcheries, how that is used, recorded, and maintained, and at the same time I'm a fair coder. So, while there are people who know the details of hatchery management better than I, and people who work with the data in more ways than I have, I also have the technical side with databases and data management, and that triumverate may be pretty unique.

    So, I'm writing something that could be used by LOTS of different people, and could be appreciated by LOTS of different people, but I can't say whether or not I SHOULD be writing what I'm writing. I know that there have been many attempts to do this, and I now know why many of them have failed (there's an approach that is so obvious that if you don't see it you shouldn't be in the business, but the approach, despite being obvious, is incorrect and leads to serious problems). It's safe to say that there will be LOTS of attempts in the future. There isn't much money in it, so it will pretty much all be home grown approaches, but there will be plenty of them (I know of three currently underway or planned in various states, one of which is a mess, another hasn't started, and I'm not sure about the third).

    I worked out a solution to the core problem, which is elegant, complete, but not intuitive. The solution is largely due to the unique vantage point that I have on the problem. After all, how many programming problems do you get to study from all sides for 10 years before writing a single line of code? Maybe the solution is ONLY because of my unique vantage point, and anybody else who comes to it will say, "yeah, that's nice, but here's this MUCH easier way to do it..." and start down the same old dead-end, but brutally obvious, path.

    I'm writing the program because it's cool, but maybe I would better serve people not by writing the program, but by explaining the reason why it must be so. Maybe the program will only exist because of a unique set of circumstances produced a unique specialist, and once I'm gone the special understanding of the problem will fade out to be replaced by the mundane, and incorrect understanding.

    Doing something novel is kind of cool, but the problem with specialization is that it is necessarily somewhat rare, and can never be fully appreciated by anybody else...or else they would also be a specialist in the same area. So specialization may always give way to generalists, sometimes to the detriment of the system as a whole. Or else, perhaps we shouldn't worry about the destination and just enjoy the journey.
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  37. #37

    Thread Starter
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    Re: Will .Net outlive us?

    @SH

    Does your program count fish eggs and the probability of how many will hatch? Just wondering since such software does not seem applicable here in our area.
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  38. #38
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: Will .Net outlive us?

    No, it's data collection of all sorts of data, but the only projection it does is estimating the amount of feed to use into the future.
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  39. #39
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    Re: Will .Net outlive us?

    Just thought I ought to qualify my previous statement a bit. Rather than saying "Don't Specialise" I should probably have said "Don't specialise to the exclusion of all else".

    Specialisation is like making a high risk investment. The rewards are likely to be high but the tenure can be short lived. There a fundamental rule of investment that you don't put all your eggs in one basket, you want a diverse portfolio that contains some high risk and some low risk investments. Specialisation is the same. It's worth specialising to some extent but you should also keep your less glamorous skills polished as a hedge.

    Shaggy, I wouldn't call you "Specialist" so much as "Uniquely Positioned". I apreciate I'm arguing semantics but I think it's an important distinction. None of the skills you're bringing to the table are particularly specialist, it's the combination of them that gives you a uniquue outlook. That's actually great because it gives you all the advantages of being a specialist in that you can sell a unique and in-demand skill set but none of the risk of having the rug pulled from under you if you find out that your product isn't in demand anymore because you can always fall back on your less glamorous base skills.

    I must admit, I'm intrigued about what the problem, obvious but wrong solution and non-obvious but right solutions are. I doubt you'll share though becasue I certainly wouldn't. Keep us updated once you've completed it though becasue enquiring minds would like to know.

    I think I'm in a similar position with a marketting/CRM app I've been writing. I can see a massive flaw in all the CRM style apps that exist today (and I've worked on enough of them, both off the shelf and bespoke, to feel confident in that assertion) that I believe I've found a way of fixing. But it requires a fairly unique mindset as well as a fairkly specific set of technologies that most people don't seem overly interested in and which most people would think of combining. I also spent about four years trying to solve the problem using a particular aproach that turned out to be utterly misguided. Throwing away 4 years of work and starting again from scratch was painful... but necessary. My real problem is that, when I'm ready, I'm going to have to take this thing into an extremely crowded marketplace that's already populated with the likes of Microsoft and Sage... so no worries there then
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  40. #40
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: Will .Net outlive us?

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post
    you can always fall back on your less glamorous base skills.
    Yes indeed. In fact, I just found out that I'll get to spend two weeks in the wilderness hauling pieces of rotting fish around in my backpack. Therefore, my less glamorous base skills include: Walking bear bait.

    It's gonna be AWESOME!!!


    I must admit, I'm intrigued about what the problem, obvious but wrong solution and non-obvious but right solutions are. I doubt you'll share though becasue I certainly wouldn't. Keep us updated once you've completed it though becasue enquiring minds would like to know.
    Well, I won't share, but only because the problem is utlimately boring to most people. It would be too tedious for all involved to explain well enough to make the issue clear to somebody not involved in the subject, and once they understood....they really wouldn't care.
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