For future Deal Or No Deal Contestants:

[moonman239]

Here's a little trick that can help you determine whether or not to accept the banker's offer:

E(x) = (-1*total value of high-value cases*P(eliminating a high-value case)) * (total value of low-value cases*P(eliminating a low-value case))

where the result is in dollars. This is called expected value and it can be used in betting. In this case, we assume that you are betting the value of the non-eliminated low-value cases and that Deal or No Deal is betting the value of the non-eliminated high-value cases.

Note that the expected value does not, and never will, equal the banker's deal.

[jemidiah]

Sorry, I'm not quite sure what the above is trying to say. I do understand expected values and a decent amount of Bayesian statistics.

My own take on Deal or No Deal is that it's frustrating to watch (since people let their emotions make them horribly irrational when playing, which makes me cringe), but it's at least somewhat interesting mathematically. Without knowing the banker's strategy for choosing offer amounts, though, it's not possible to give an optimal "accept or reject" strategy.