Lottery win odds [resolved]

[wossname]

How do you calculate the odds of winning the lottery?

You choose 6 numbers from a range of 1 to 49 and the odds should come out at 13.9 million to 1 against. But my hungover brain can't suss out how to calculate it.

[dogfish227]

49^6

[NoteMe]

(49*48*47*46*45*44)/(1*2*3*4*5*6)=x



ØØ

[dglienna]

7.1511238420185162619416617037867e-8

1:13million?

[wossname]

49^6

= 13.8 Billion

Only 3 orders of magnitude out

[wossname]

1:13million?

Yep, looks like noteme is right.

[alkatran]

The odds aren't important, the average payout vs average cost is important.

Note: There are situations in the lottery where payout are higher than cost!
For example: You're going to lose your house unless you make 100$ within the next hour. Go to the store and buy some scratch-n-wins! The cost of NOT playing is you lose your house. The cost of playing is a dollar + a near sure change of losing your house!

Assuming your house is worth 10 000$, you only need a 0.00001 chance of winning a 101$ to justify playing.

Of course the reason you're losing your house is because you played the lottery in the first place, moron.

[NoteMe]

Yep, looks like noteme is right.

That is the only Q I managed on my exam a few years back....or at least not far from the truth....I got my first C that year...

[dglienna]

million, or billion. when it is chances of winning the lottery, it doesn't really matter. i started playing for 4 months this year, and then quit. wasted a dollar per day, and won $15 dollars. 1/6. Waste of money.

[NoteMe]

There is no sutch lottery where everyone earns on it. So you have to be lucky to gain money, thats why it is called a lottery. You will never have the ods on your side...

[wossname]

I'm going to buy 14 million tickets and pay for them with an IOU. (On a roll-over week, so the jackpot is more than £14million) then pay for the original tickets with my winnings and keep the leftover cash!!

Perfect plan, it cannot fail.

[alkatran]

I'm going to buy 14 million tickets and pay for them with an IOU. (On a roll-over week, so the jackpot is more than £14million) then pay for the original tickets with my winnings and keep the leftover cash!!

Perfect plan, it cannot fail.

Doesn't a lottery ticket cost more than a dollar? What if someone else wins, too?

[wossname]

Doesn't a lottery ticket cost more than a dollar? What if someone else wins, too?

Yes. £1 = approx $1.65. There are places outside america you know.

Nobody else would be allowed to win, because I say so.

[anna69]

The number of combinations is actually 49x48x47x46x45x44, not 49^6, because you can't use the same number again and so the pool of available numbers decreases.

For ease of calculation, that's the same as 49!/43! which is 10068347520

[NoteMe]

I am right...



http://www.saliu.com/bbs/messages/266.html

[anna69]

I was puzzled as to why NoteMe's solution has the 6! in there. I just dug around and it's to do with the fact that some of the groups in the 10068347520 possibilities are the same as others, just drawn in a different sequence. For any 6 number group, there are 6 ways of defining the first ball, 5 for the second etc, so the 10068347520 actually gets reduced by a factor of 6!=720, to be the 14milliion.

[NoteMe]

Never be pusseled by my posts...

[jhermiz]

Never be pusseled by my posts...

Permutations and combinations, ever hear of n choose m

n combinations choose m.

You have 49 or n numbers you can only choose 1 result for that single spot.
If its a 6 digit lottery system you have 6! chances.

[NoteMe]

Permutations and combinations, ever hear of n choose m

n combinations choose m.

You have 49 or n numbers you can only choose 1 result for that single spot.
If its a 6 digit lottery system you have 6! chances.

Why did you quote me on that one....I was the one that was right here....look at all the others...

[jhermiz]

Why did you quote me on that one....I was the one that was right here....look at all the others...

49!/43!*6!

[jhermiz]

Why did you quote me on that one....I was the one that was right here....look at all the others...

Sorry I didnt see your solution

[NoteMe]

if you mean that that 6 is under the line, then you just wrote the same as I did....

[NoteMe]

Sorry I didnt see your solution

Hehe....you managed to post before me...